Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

[greeneyed]

Peter Sterling’s warning for the Canberra Raiders after preliminary final defeat

Parramatta Eels great Peter Sterling has issued a dire warning to Canberra Raiders supporters, claiming the club’s window of opportunity to secure a long-awaited NRL Premiership is closing.

“Whilst you can see that window of opportunity’s closing, it remains open longer if you are developing players and you can see good things on the horizon, and I think there’s good depth in Canberra, so I think they’ll be a force again next year.”

Read more: https://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/peter ... 846bf67af9

[Azza]

That doesn't make any sense. He's basically saying our window is still open? Also Guler and Horbsurgh were injured, we aren't losing them from our roster. We all know the issue is just in the outside backs.

[FuiFui BradBrad]

Yeah I saw the article in News.com and thought the heading was a bit click-baity. I don't think he's actually saying its closed

[Hong Kong Raider]

It will close soon if we don't do anything about our backline. We need an injection of pace and youth. Look at Melbourne and Penrith. Discounting the injuries this year, with the losses of Bateman and Cotric, and gains of Aitkens and Ryan James, I think we are in a worse position.

No more romantic resignings. Enough is enough.

[-PJ-]

Sterlo may have concussion.

[Bay53]

It will close soon if we don't do anything about our backline. We need an injection of pace and youth. Look at Melbourne and Penrith. Discounting the injuries this year, with the losses of Bateman and Cotric, and gains of Aitkens and Ryan James, I think we are in a worse position.

No more romantic resignings. Enough is enough.

In many ways Scott and CHN are new signings for next year too. They will be different players after a big pre season.

[BadnMean]

It will close soon if we don't do anything about our backline. We need an injection of pace and youth. Look at Melbourne and Penrith. Discounting the injuries this year, with the losses of Bateman and Cotric, and gains of Aitkens and Ryan James, I think we are in a worse position.

No more romantic resignings. Enough is enough.

In many ways Scott and CHN are new signings for next year too. They will be different players after a big pre season.

I get the impression Scott has used up any brownie points by being the big signing and then a rough personal time. Because we bought him cheap after having a rough personal time and then disappointing at Storm.

Timoko will have a fair crack at that spot. My guess is still Scott will get first grab at it- simply to give Timoko 1-2 months footy against grown men before getting into FG.

CHN's last few games were more like what I saw at Dogs and Pamfers. Very good.

[Chicka Chicka Chicka]

It’s not closing, we’ve now got the Dally M Winner in our lineup

[GreenMachine]

It won’t close if we refresh the outside backs.
Our forwards and halves will keep us top 5 alone.

[woppadingo]

Defintely a click bait headline.
Sterlo is saying the window will remina open because we are developing younger talent.
And I agree.
Although we are losing Cotric, and Rapana has onlyone year left, Leilua gone and Croker not being what he once was, we have recruited/developed talent such as Starling, Timoko, Valemei, HSS; Havilli being decent, Lui having a good year, Taps realising his potential, Papalli is only 27/28, Wighton and Williams going to get better. Also finding that we are more attractive as a destination for players, re: Atkins, CHN, Rushton..
So I think the window opening has been extended for another couple of years.

[-TW-]

Nah, our pack and spine will be relatively unchanged bar Bateman, who we've replaces with CHN

We'll miss Cotric, but Rapana and Scott with full and undisturbed preseasons should be infinitely better.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[rayden83]

It entirely depends on how the outside backs go next year. Our forwards are great. Our halves are great. Our backline has Croker and Rapana in it, two players who peaked around 3-4 years ago and have been on a downward slide since. Scott is still an unknown quantity, but based on 2020 displays seems he doesn’t offer much in attack.

We need to promote Timoko into the starting line up, and given our depth in forwards it may be an option to throw CHN out there add some firepower to the outside backs.

If Croker and Scott fail to fire an alternative formations with steel and muscle could look like:

Valemei
Timoko
CHN
Rapana

So no, I don’t agree that the Premiership window has closed, but we need to be better than last season if we are to seriously mount a challenge.

[reptar]

Betteridge’s Law of Headlines applies

[benda]

While i was watching the gf last night, the sentiment of our backs being less athletic started to become more apparent to me. I was perhaps a little ignorant to that before.

Whatever is decided by our coaching staff, we MUST improve our attack next season. Williams will have his first season done and Wighton is on the up.

So I dont think our window is closing, but we must improve. Hopefully it will be a more level playing field with the travel schedule taken into account next season.

[-TW-]

We really need Timoko in there asap

His leg drive resembled Rapana from a few years ago

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[afgtnk]

While i was watching the gf last night, the sentiment of our backs being less athletic started to become more apparent to me. I was perhaps a little ignorant to that before.

Whatever is decided by our coaching staff, we MUST improve our attack next season. Williams will have his first season done and Wighton is on the up.

So I dont think our window is closing, but we must improve. Hopefully it will be a more level playing field with the travel schedule taken into account next season.

Not just that, but the side to side ball movement from both teams, even within their own halves - and in wet, greasy conditions. They weren't afraid to throw it around to stretch the line.

I'd love to see some kind of heat map or figures around the average width we move the ball during a set of six in specific positions on the field this season. I can't imagine we'd move it more than 10-15 metres within our 40.

[julian87]

It’s a tough topic Sadly though there’s a big chance of stagnating if Stuart doesn’t back some young outside backs early next season.

[Azza]

Absolutely. We don't solve the outside backs issue next season we are screwed.

[BadnMean]

While i was watching the gf last night, the sentiment of our backs being less athletic started to become more apparent to me. I was perhaps a little ignorant to that before.

Whatever is decided by our coaching staff, we MUST improve our attack next season. Williams will have his first season done and Wighton is on the up.

So I dont think our window is closing, but we must improve. Hopefully it will be a more level playing field with the travel schedule taken into account next season.

Not just that, but the side to side ball movement from both teams, even within their own halves - and in wet, greasy conditions. They weren't afraid to throw it around to stretch the line.

I'd love to see some kind of heat map or figures around the average width we move the ball during a set of six in specific positions on the field this season. I can't imagine we'd move it more than 10-15 metres within our 40.

You can get a rough guide by # of passes thrown, e.g. if you don't throw many then it is clear you only spread it on the 4th/5th and even then sometimes it stops at the backrower. Raiders are #1 for dummy half runs (equal w STorm). Then we are also #1 for single pass hit ups- but Storm disappear down to 8th, indicating that when they do pass, the ball keeps moving along wider fairly often. Not so with us. It's not a spread map, but it supports the idea.

Panthers (1) and Storm (5) both top 5 for average # passes thrown per game, so they do move the ball a lot. Raiders 15th, only Broncos throw less passes (most their time underneath the sticks this season )- to give some perspective we throw 11.5 less passes per game than even the 14th ranked team (Tigers) and about 40 (!!!) less passes per game than the Panthers up the top.

[Seiffert82]

While i was watching the gf last night, the sentiment of our backs being less athletic started to become more apparent to me. I was perhaps a little ignorant to that before.

Whatever is decided by our coaching staff, we MUST improve our attack next season. Williams will have his first season done and Wighton is on the up.

So I dont think our window is closing, but we must improve. Hopefully it will be a more level playing field with the travel schedule taken into account next season.

Not just that, but the side to side ball movement from both teams, even within their own halves - and in wet, greasy conditions. They weren't afraid to throw it around to stretch the line.

I'd love to see some kind of heat map or figures around the average width we move the ball during a set of six in specific positions on the field this season. I can't imagine we'd move it more than 10-15 metres within our 40.

You can get a rough guide by # of passes thrown, e.g. if you don't throw many then it is clear you only spread it on the 4th/5th and even then sometimes it stops at the backrower. Raiders are #1 for dummy half runs (equal w STorm). Then we are also #1 for single pass hit ups- but Storm disappear down to 8th, indicating that when they do pass, the ball keeps moving along wider fairly often. Not so with us. It's not a spread map, but it supports the idea.

Panthers (1) and Storm (5) both top 5 for average # passes thrown per game, so they do move the ball a lot. Raiders 15th, only Broncos throw less passes (most their time underneath the sticks this season )- to give some perspective we throw 11.5 less passes per game than even the 14th ranked team (Tigers) and about 40 (!!!) less passes per game than the Panthers up the top.

It was quite honestly the worst thing about our season and one of the reasons our 3/4 line looked horrendous this year. Hodgo dominated the ball early and we also had two running halves which only really started using the backline from about round 16.

It needs to be fixed next season.

[afgtnk]

While i was watching the gf last night, the sentiment of our backs being less athletic started to become more apparent to me. I was perhaps a little ignorant to that before.

Whatever is decided by our coaching staff, we MUST improve our attack next season. Williams will have his first season done and Wighton is on the up.

So I dont think our window is closing, but we must improve. Hopefully it will be a more level playing field with the travel schedule taken into account next season.

Not just that, but the side to side ball movement from both teams, even within their own halves - and in wet, greasy conditions. They weren't afraid to throw it around to stretch the line.

I'd love to see some kind of heat map or figures around the average width we move the ball during a set of six in specific positions on the field this season. I can't imagine we'd move it more than 10-15 metres within our 40.

You can get a rough guide by # of passes thrown, e.g. if you don't throw many then it is clear you only spread it on the 4th/5th and even then sometimes it stops at the backrower. Raiders are #1 for dummy half runs (equal w STorm). Then we are also #1 for single pass hit ups- but Storm disappear down to 8th, indicating that when they do pass, the ball keeps moving along wider fairly often. Not so with us. It's not a spread map, but it supports the idea.

Panthers (1) and Storm (5) both top 5 for average # passes thrown per game, so they do move the ball a lot. Raiders 15th, only Broncos throw less passes (most their time underneath the sticks this season )- to give some perspective we throw 11.5 less passes per game than even the 14th ranked team (Tigers) and about 40 (!!!) less passes per game than the Panthers up the top.

Those all paint a decent picture.

Interesting to note to that despite our level of conservatism, we still averaged equal 5th most errors.

[Cranky Old Man]

I've never been too worried about wingers and centres, there always seems to be plenty of big athletic young players coming through who can do the job in that area. Sucess usually comes if a bit of patience allows those players to develop defensive skills. (see Josh Addo Carr, Tigers didnt have the environment / time to develop him, Melb did.) With a list of Rapa, Scott, Croker, Simonsson, Valemi, HSS and Timoko plus whateverwashes through the coming preseason, we are aDEQUATELY placed, no world beaters but no game losers either. Cotric will be a loss, but not worth the sal cap Dogs are using.
Spine players and forwards are where games are won and lost, and we demonstrated this in the win over Easts, they had the pace, we won in the spine and forweards.
We lost the Storm game because we ran out of gas in a season where we used up much more gas than our opponents in travel. Hopefully the travel situation will be more normal next season.
As an addendum, I believe that in fairness the Warriors should be given blocks of games in Australia wherethey are based somewhere handy, perhaps 3 or 4 games then return to NZ for a similar block.

[Mickey_Raider]

With a list of Rapa, Scott, Croker, Simonsson, Valemi, HSS and Timoko plus whateverwashes through the coming preseason, we are aDEQUATELY placed, no world beaters but no game losers either. Cotric will be a loss, but not worth the sal cap Dogs are using.

Sorry, I don't think we are adequately placed at all.

I am not talking about the last 3, they are all promising rookies.

The first four, which could well be our starting backline next year, could honestly be the worst 3/4 line in the comp.

I don't think out top shelf halves or pack will be able to compensate enough to win us the comp next year.

It seems to be pretty much consensus that we will need a break out year from at least 1 or 2 of Valemei, Timoko, HSS in order to bring that backline up to at least middle of the rod vis-a-vis the rest of the comp.

[Cranky Old Man]

Do you think Brenko and Olam (just a hard running average defender) are going to keep rival coaches awake over the off season. Did having Joe Manu win anything for Easts this year? One of the next best centres in the game was Stagg. Helped Broncos to a wooden spoon.
I still believe first priority is the spine, then forwards, big step back to wingers / centres.

[BadnMean]

Those all paint a decent picture.

Interesting to note to that despite our level of conservatism, we still averaged equal 5th most errors.

That is noteable. I'd say injuries leading to disruption/more rookies account for some. I'd say fatigue/travel is perhaps a 2-5% factor. We also played a lot of rainy games/games on the mudbowl after 3-4 other games the same weekend for a stretch. Between that and some poor handling seasons (Rapa unfit always makes errors, CNK mid season yips. Scott's early awful form then blooding Semi) that's probably the difference between 5th and 10th.

[BadnMean]

Do you think Brenko and Olam (just a hard running average defender) are going to keep rival coaches awake over the off season. Did having Joe Manu win anything for Easts this year? One of the next best centres in the game was Stagg. Helped Broncos to a wooden spoon.
I still believe first priority is the spine, then forwards, big step back to wingers / centres.

If you look at seasons in the cold light of day, Brenko easily beat out Croker in attack in 2020 and comes in at least even in defence once try/break causes, errors and tackle efficiency in defence are looked at. And he's a clear moneyball winner under the cap. So he's not keeping anyone awake but he really did a job for the price.

I think Olam is a vastly improved centre from last season and even early this season. He's a real handful with more to his game out there involving Papenhuyzen and the Fox than he's given credit for. Makes as many tries/involvements/breaks as just about any other top 5 centre and breaks more tackles than any.

[Hong Kong Raider]

Naden and Brenko are now better than Croker

Paying 600,000 for Croker? That's called an expensive failure. Will be Cartwright and Peachey territory next year if he doesn't improve.

[Raiders_Pat]

Do you think Brenko and Olam (just a hard running average defender) are going to keep rival coaches awake over the off season. Did having Joe Manu win anything for Easts this year? One of the next best centres in the game was Stagg. Helped Broncos to a wooden spoon.
I still believe first priority is the spine, then forwards, big step back to wingers / centres.

Brenko Lee and Olam are nothing special but they were running Addo-Carr and Vunivalu in that backline as well... **** all over ours. I agree that outside backs are the least important of your starting 13 but you can't play four duds...

[mobrulesall]

Rapa needs a summer off the sushi.
Scott needs a summer without cuffs.
Croker needs some sleep (new borns do that right?)
CNK needs remember how to pass the footy around the park
Bailey needs to put his big boy pants on

Look, we have the young talent. I think Timoko and Semi are the way forward if the above names don't comply with my off-season demands - although I will admit, Semi under a high ball is like having a aneurysm.

[The Nickman]

Do you think Brenko and Olam (just a hard running average defender) are going to keep rival coaches awake over the off season. Did having Joe Manu win anything for Easts this year? One of the next best centres in the game was Stagg. Helped Broncos to a wooden spoon.
I still believe first priority is the spine, then forwards, big step back to wingers / centres.

Brenko Lee and Olam are nothing special but they were running Addo-Carr and Vunivalu in that backline as well... **** all over ours. I agree that outside backs are the least important of your starting 13 but you can't play four duds...

Thankfully we don't even have one "dud", let alone four.

This discussion is trending towards embarrassing.

[BJ]

I’m with those saying spend big on the spine, add one very good prop and one skilful back rower.

Plug the gaps around those key players. Especially a reasonable NRL level prop rotation. Some teams lose it when their props sub off. Also Good to have a winger with strong hit ups or dummy half running.

[afgtnk]

Olam is a flyer - at least as fast as Papenhuyzen.

Brenko Lee is the certified dud in their backline, and even he's been able to make an Origin squad.

[Raiders_Pat]

Do you think Brenko and Olam (just a hard running average defender) are going to keep rival coaches awake over the off season. Did having Joe Manu win anything for Easts this year? One of the next best centres in the game was Stagg. Helped Broncos to a wooden spoon.
I still believe first priority is the spine, then forwards, big step back to wingers / centres.

Brenko Lee and Olam are nothing special but they were running Addo-Carr and Vunivalu in that backline as well... **** all over ours. I agree that outside backs are the least important of your starting 13 but you can't play four duds...

Thankfully we don't even have one "dud", let alone four.

This discussion is trending towards embarrassing.

The wording was harsh, I don't necessarily think we're running four duds next year although I do definitely think one recruit with a bit of strike power in the outside backs would be handy. I think Scott will be more than capable but Croker and Rapana are on the decline. I liked the look of Valemei this season and I think Timoko is the best of all the rookies. We're strong across the park in every other position, nobody can deny it's our weak spot... and it's hard to argue that our 2-5 isn't amongst the bottom end of the comp at the moment. Not counting out one of the younger guys to step up though.

[Cranky Old Man]

Olam is a flyer - at least as fast as Papenhuyzen.

I think whatever you are swallowing is illegal.

[Seiffert82]

Olam is a flyer - at least as fast as Papenhuyzen.

I think whatever you are swallowing is illegal.

As fast as Geraldine Papenhuyzen, Ryan's grandmother.