Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Sydney Cricket Ground
Friday 9 October, 7:50pm
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Sunny. Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 13 Max 25
The Canberra Raiders will play a third re-match of the 2019 Grand Final, when they travel to the Sydney Cricket Ground for a meeting with the Roosters in Week 2 of the finals.
Last week: 2020 Finals Week 1. Canberra Raiders 32 - Cronulla Sharks 20. The Canberra Raiders had the aim of starting well, but again that did not happen. They performed poorly in the first half and were indeed fortunate to only trail by only four points at half time. They lacked intensity and made crucial errors. The players that were rested in the previous week looked rusty. In the end, it did not matter. In the second half, the Raiders scored four tries and did not concede a point until the final two minutes, after the game was wrapped up.
More on Finals Week 1: As I saw it
Team news: The Canberra Raiders have a long injury list, but they came through Week 1 of the finals unscathed. Coach Ricky Stuart has stuck with the same top 17 that beat the Sharks. Hooker Jake Friend (head knock) and Sonny Bill Williams (neck) will return for the Roosters, with Freddy Lussick and Nat Butcher dropping out.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Kai O'Donnell and Michael Oldfield from their squad on Thursday, with Sam Williams and Matt Timoko remaining on the extended bench. The Roosters cut Daniel Suluka-Fifita and Matt Ikuvalu leaving Nat Butcher and Lachlan Lam on the reserves list. The top 17 for both teams were left unchanged.
History: The Raiders have won 29 of 66 matches against the Sydney Roosters - and only one of the past five games. The Roosters won all three games played between the clubs in 2019, including the Grand Final. They won 30-24 at Lang Park during Magic Round last year, after going to a 30-6 lead early in the second half. The Raiders' subsequent comeback fell short. Then in Round 21, Canberra suffered a narrow, 22-18, loss to the Roosters at Canberra Stadium - with the Raiders' comeback again just falling short. The Raiders lost 14-8 in the Grand Final. It was a game marred by officiating controversy, with the Green Machine being the better team for much of the contest.
In Round 10 this year, the Raiders won the Grand Final re-match, 24-20, in a courageous performance at the Sydney Cricket Ground, but the Roosters got the win (18-6) in Round 17 as Canberra Stadium. The two teams have only played three matches at the Sydney Cricket Ground, two of them in 1987. The Raiders have won two of the three.
2020 Round 17 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2020 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Form: Raiders: LWWWW
Roosters: WWWLL
The Roosters come into this match after back to back losses, falling to the Rabbitohs (60-8) and the Panthers (29-28) in their most recent outings. The Raiders are on a four game winning streak - with their last loss posted against the Roosters.
Betting: The Roosters are $1.45 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.85. The Raiders have 6.0 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has been pretty average. They rank seventh in the NRL for most tries scored per match. In contrast, the Roosters are the No. 1 attacking team in the league. They've averaged almost five tries per game, and have scored 16 more tries than the Green Machine. The Roosters rank first for try assists (Raiders seventh), line break assists (Raiders 11th), line breaks (Raiders seventh) and tackle breaks (Raiders third). They rank second for kick return metres (Raiders 12th) and third for running metres (Raiders ninth).
The downside of the Roosters' more expansive play is that their completion rate is in the bottom four teams. Unfortunately, the Raiders' completion rate is not a lot better, and they rank third for most errors (Roosters sixth). The Roosters are probably not as expansive as you might imagine, however. They rank eighth for general play passes (Raiders 15th) and sixth for one pass hit ups (Raiders third).
The Roosters' defence has been in the top four teams for most of the season. But after conceding 89 points in their last two games, they now rank fifth for fewest tries conceded, while the Raiders now rank equal third, alongside the Eels. The Raiders are the best in the league for fewest ineffective tackles conceded (13.5 per game). In contrast, only the Titans and Bulldogs have given up more ineffective tackles than the Roosters per match. The Raiders do miss more tackles, but Canberra's effective tackle rate is just ahead of the Roosters.
The Raiders rank fifth for kicking metres gained, the Roosters 14th. But given the running metres gained by the Roosters, they don't have to kick long as often.
2020 Season record: Raiders 15 and 6 (5th, +128)
Roosters 14 and 7 (4th, +230)
Attack: Raiders 23 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th on tries scored
Roosters 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 1st on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal third on tries conceded
Roosters 17 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Roosters 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Roosters 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1663 running metres from 183 runs (14 dummy half runs), 165 kick return metres, 550 post contact metres per match
Roosters 1775 running metres from 190 runs (8 dummy half runs), 211 kick return metres, 616 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Roosters 33 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Roosters 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Roosters 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Roosters 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Rooster 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 604 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Roosters 504 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 355 made, 27 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Roosters 371 made, 25 missed, 17 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1446, Roosters 1398 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Roosters 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Roosters 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Roosters 3 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and James Tedesco James Tedesco famously back flipped on a deal to join the Canberra Raiders in 2015 - but he subsequently did switch from the Tigers to the Roosters. This year he was not only voted the No. 1 fullback in the game in the annual NRL players' poll, he was voted the No. 1 player. He can pretty much do it all. He ranks first in the NRL for running metres, tackle breaks and line break assists, third for running metres and second for kick return metres. In 2020, he's scored nine tries and produced 14 line breaks, 15 try assists, 133 tackle breaks and 230 running metres per game. After a bit of a rough patch, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has had a strong back end of the season. This year he's scored seven tries and posted six line breaks, three try assists, 66 tackle breaks and 180 running metres per game. CNK is developing his ball playing, but he's up there with the best with his running game. Clearly, however, Teddy takes this "skin".
Jarrod Croker and Joseph Manu The 2020 players' poll saw six of the Roosters' back line voted as the best in the NRL in their positions. Centre Joseph Manu was one of them. So far in 2020, Manu has eight tries, eight line breaks, 78 tackle breaks, five try assists and an average 104 running metres gained. Jarrod Croker hasn't been in career best form - but has reportedly been hampered by injury. He has produced five tries, eight line breaks, 29 tackle breaks, eight try assists and averaged 71 running metres. His goal kicking has been good (82 per cent success rate), delivering the Raiders the third best conversion success rate in the NRL. Croker's defence has often been criticised, but he only has eight try causes this season (Manu 11) - and Croker has the better tackle efficiency rate (86 per cent, 81 per cent Manu).
Jack Wighton and Luke Keary Luke Keary and Jack Wighton are two of the best five eighths in the competition at present - if not the best. In 19 appearances in 2020, Keary's bagged 10 tries and delivered 18 try assists, 12 line break assists and 16 forced line drop outs. Jack Wighton shared in the Meninga Medal and Canberra Raiders Fans' Choice Player of the Year this year - a winner for the first time. He almost single handedly turned the game against the Sharks last Saturday, with a double in the space of three minutes. He's now got 12 tries, eight try assists and eight line break assists for the year. He is very solid in defence - with an 89 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Keary is not too far behind in that department (87 per cent tackle efficiency). Keary is probably better in terms of organising, while Wighton is probably the better runner (102 metres per game, Keary 82 metres per game). When these players faced each other in the 2019 Grand Final, Jack Wighton came away with the Clive Churchill Medal, the best player on the ground. Hopefully, Wighton can outpoint Keary again on Friday night.
George Williams and Kyle Flanagan English recruit George Williams has been one of the Green Machine's very best in 2020. He has six tries, 13 try assists, 15 forced line drop outs, and an average 230 kicking metres to his name. His kicks to the try line have been a real weapon. Roosters' youngster Kyle Flanagan has had the unenviable task of taking over from Cooper Cronk, but he's still performed well. He's produced four tries, 11 try assists, four forced line drop outs, and an average 256 kicking metres per game. Flanagan's defence has been improving, but he has 11 try causes, compared with six for Williams. Prince George wins this match-up for mine.
Josh Papalii and Siosiua Taukeiaho Josh Papalii shared in the 2020 Meninga Medal and the Fans' Choice Player of the Year - the fourth time he's won both awards. This season, he's averaged 13 hit ups for 150 running metres and 31 tackles per match. He's also scored four tries and produced 19 offloads and 34 tackle breaks. He hardly ever misses his mark in defence (97 per cent tackle efficiency). Siosiua Taukeiaho has been the Roosters' best prop in 2020. He's averaged 15 hit ups for 164 running metres and 31 tackles per match. He's scored one try and posted 22 offloads, 23 tackle breaks and a 92 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Those are very good numbers, but Papa is the best in the business in my view.
Our tip: It is one game apiece so far in 2020, so we know this Raiders team can beat the Roosters. And Ricky Stuart knows which tactics work. In defence, the Raiders will need to try and force the Roosters into error, with good line speed and vigour in tackles. They won't want to concede the sort of running metres they gave up last weekend against the Sharks. Canberra will also need to be disciplined - and watch the restarts conceded. The kickers must aim to keep the Roosters at their own end - and keep the ball out of the hands of the Roosters' danger men at the back.
The Raiders have started slowly in the past couple of months - and have often lost the early battle for territory. A repeat in this game could be fatal and the Raiders' forwards will need to aim up early. It is tough to come back against the Roosters, and they're very hard to stop once they have momentum. But if the Raiders can keep in the grind, they have the ability to finish strongly in the second half.
The Roosters like playing on their temporary home ground, the SCG, and have lost only three times in the 17 games they've played there in the past two seasons. But the Raiders are one of the teams to beat them at the ground. The Roosters' defence has been "off" in the past couple of weeks - and the coach and team don't seem to have their usual composure and arrogance. There look to be a few chinks in their amour. Obviously, the Roosters are a very good attacking outfit, but Canberra's defence has recently been the more solid. It should be a great game, but Raiders fans should be confident the Green Machine can do it. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "I'm very confident of that squad. They're a tough group. They are resilient. A lot of people talk the talk. We've got a few values and standards that we privately want to execute, and these boys do. They have a wonderful camaraderie and a lot of care amongst the squad. What they've got through this year in regards to the travel and the scheduling and the injuries we've had, I was so proud of them coming fifth in this competition. A lot of boys have taken on more responsibility and made men of themselves."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Semi Valemei
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Jordan Rapana
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Sia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine
14. Siliva Havili
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Sam Williams
19. Matt Timoko
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, possibly season)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Indefinite, likely season)
Ryan Sutton, Knee, MCL (Season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee, ACL (Season)
Curtis Scott, Leg (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended personal leave
Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Josh Morris
4. Joseph Manu
5. Brett Morris
6. Luke Keary
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jack Friend
10. Siosiua Taukeiaho
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Angus Crichton
13. Isaac Liu
14. Lindsay Collins
15. Sitili Tupouniua
16. Mitchell Aubusson
17. Sonny Bill Williams
18. Nat Butcher
21. Lachlan Lam
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