Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
Canberra Stadium
Saturday 3 October, 5:40pm
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Sunny. The chance of fog in the early morning. Sunny day. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 6 Max 25
The Raiders meet the Sharks for a second week in a row when they host Cronulla in Week 1 of the finals at Canberra Stadium.
Last round: 2020 Round 20. Canberra Raiders 38 - Cronulla Sharks 28. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart rested the majority of his stars from the final round of the regular season. The Rookie Raiders he selected had an average age of 23, with an average of 49 NRL games experience. There were three debutants in the team. There were four other rookies. There were five players all up who hadn't played an NRL game this season. Yet they started on fire. They were full of energy, enthusiasm and attacking brilliance. Forwards like Dunamis Lui and Sia Soliola helped lay the platform, and the backs soon took over. The Raiders scored the first try of the match - something they had not done in two months - and went on to score a total of seven.
More on Round 20: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders prop Ryan Sutton has been ruled out for the season after suffering an MCL injury in last Saturday's match against the Sharks. All nine of the Canberra players rested last weekend have been included, while Sia Soliola comes in on the bench.
Chad Townsend has served a suspension and will partner Connor Tracey in the Sharks halves. Winger Sione Katoa, centre Josh Dugan, hooker Blayke Brailey and lock Toby Rudolf come back into the starting side, while Siosifa Talakai returns on the bench. Wade Graham moves to the second row.
Late changes: On Friday, Kai O'Donnell and Michael Oldfield were omitted from the Raiders squad, leaving Sam Williams and Matt Timoko on the extended bench. The Sharks cut Braydon Trindall and Bryson Goodwin.
History: The Raiders have won 36 of 77 matches against the Cronulla Sharks, for a 47 per cent win rate. Canberra has won five of the past 10 clashes between the clubs, including the last three in a row. The Raiders lost both clashes in 2018. They suffered a 24-16 loss in the nation's capital in Round 10, and then lost the return clash at Shark Park, 28-24, in Round 19. But the Raiders turned that around in 2019. They had a hard fought 22-20 win at Canberra Stadium in Round 14 - after leading 20-8 at half time. Then in Round 24, the Raiders won 15-14 at Shark Park in golden point - with Aidan Sezer kicking three field goals. That spoiled the party for Paul Gallen's final home game for the Sharks.
2019 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2019 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2018 Round 19 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2018 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
The Raiders have won 15 of 29 matches played at Canberra Stadium - but only three of the past ten. The Sharks had a six game winning streak at the venue between 2013 and 2018, before the Raiders' victory at home last year.
Form: Raiders: WWLWW
Sharks: WLWLL
The Sharks have had not beaten a top eight side this year. They have had recent wins over the Warriors (22-14) and the Cowboys (28-12), but lost to the Knights (38-10), Panthers (38-12) and Raiders (38-28) during the course of their past five games. The Raiders have only one recent loss - to the Roosters in the second Grand Final re-match (18-6). In their past five matches, they have had wins over the Bulldogs (34-20), Dragons (37-8), Warriors (26-14) and the Sharks.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.18 favourites, while the Sharks are paying $5.00. The Sharks have 13.5 points start in the line.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and eighth (Sharks) on the ladder.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has been pretty average. They sit in seventh place for most tries scored (77) - while the Sharks rank fifth in attack (85 tries). The Sharks have made more line breaks, tackle breaks, try assists and offloads than the Raiders. Half Shaun Johnson has more try assists than any player in the NRL (23). The trouble for the Sharks is, he's been ruled out for the season (achilles).
The other problem for the Sharks is their defence. The Raiders are ranked equal fourth for fewest tries conceded - after the Roosters let in 10 tries last week. However, the Sharks have the worst defence of any of the top eight sides, ranking 10th for the fewest tries conceded. Cronulla has also conceded as many points as they've scored. The Sharks rank first in the NRL for missed tackles and first for line breaks conceded. No team has a worse tackle efficiency rate playing in the finals than the Sharks.
The Raiders' defence is good, but they will need to watch their discipline. They rank second for most restarts conceded and sixth for penalties conceded. In addition, the Raiders are in the top four teams for most errors.
2020 Season record: Raiders 14 and 6 (5th, +128)
Sharks 10 and 10 (8th, 0)
Attack: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th on tries scored
Sharks 24 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 5th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 4th on tries conceded
Sharks 24 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 10th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Sharks 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Sharks 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1668 running metres from 185 runs (13 dummy half runs), 167 kick return metres, 554 post contact metres per match
Sharks 1639 running metres from 183 runs (9 dummy half runs), 180 kick return metres, 491 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Sharks 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Sharks 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sharks 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Sharks 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Sharks 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 608 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Sharks 506 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 356 made, 27 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Sharks 322 made, 35 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 86 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1443, Sharks 1405 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Sharks 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Sharks 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Sharks 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Sharks 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Sharks 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Sione Katoa and Nick Cotric Sharks winger Sione Katoa sits in equal fourth place on the top try scorer list for 2020. He has 15 tries, 16 line breaks, one try assist and 79 tackle breaks to his name. He's also averaging 140 running metres per game. Nick Cotric has not been in career best form this season, but he's still got 12 tries, up on the four he scored in 2019. Cotric ranks fourth in the NRL for tackle breaks (106), behind James Tedesco, David Nofoaluma and Kalyn Ponga. In addition, he's posted 11 line breaks, two try assists and 110 running metres per game. Cotric has the better tackle efficiency rate of the two (70 versus 66 per cent), but Cotric has more try causes (16 versus 10). Cotric's defence has improved over the course of the season, after some early season problems on the right edge. We were denied this match-up last week, with Katoa a late withdrawal. Katoa probably shades Cotric in a "skin".
George Williams and Chad Townsend George Williams has had a great first season in the NRL. He's scored four tries, while producing six line breaks, 11 offloads, 12 try assists and four line break assists. He forced a remarkable 15 line drop outs on the opposition, and averaged 234 kicking metres per match. His short kicking game has been outstanding, with many of his try assists coming from cross field kicks to the try line. He averaged 70 running metres and 21 tackles per match - while posting an 88 per cent tackle efficiency rate. In his 11 appearances, Chad Townsend has scored one try - and posted nine try assists, six line break assists, two offloads and five forced line drop outs. He's averaged 78 running metres, 174 kicking metres and 18 tackles per match. His defence is not as strong as Williams', however (80 per cent tackle efficiency). There are some good numbers there for Townsend, given the number of games he's played.
Elliott Whitehead and Briton Nikora In his last appearance, against the Warriors, Elliott Whitehead had to shift from the second row to half back - and won man of the match. He's a second rower with some serious skills. In 2020, the England representative has scored four tries and produced seven line breaks, four try assists, five line break assists and 31 tackles per game. He doesn't make a lot of metres (77 per game), but then neither does his opponent this week, Briton Nikora (75). Nikora has also scored six tries - after bagging a double against the Raiders last week. He's also notched up five line breaks, one try assist, one line break assist and 34 tackles per game. Should be a good contest.
Tom Starling and Blayke Brailey Blayke Brailey is the younger of the Brailey brothers. They both came through the Sharks' juniors, but with both being hookers, Jayden decided to head to the Knights. Blayke, 21, made his debut in 2019, and has played in every game so far this year. He's scored three tries and produced six try assists, seven line break assists and five forced line drop outs. He's also averaged 42 running metres, 29 kicking metres and 28 tackles per game. Siliva Havili and Tom Starling have done a great job in filling in for the injured Josh Hodgson in the second half of the season. Starling, 22, plays the biggest minutes at dummy half, and has really impressed. He's got four tries, five try assists and four line break assists. He's averaged 48 running metres and 37 tackles per match. Brailey was rested last week, while Tom Starling went on to win the man of the match. He scored a try and produced three try assists, three line breaks, four tackle breaks, 108 metres and 48 tackles. Those sure are some good numbers. Looking forward to this clash.
Our tip: The Raiders are warm favourites in this game - and it is a match they should win. But the Raiders can expect a tough contest and Canberra will need to have their heads in the game from the outset. The Sharks have players with plenty of finals experience and they have a good record in Canberra. We can't draw too much from last week's result, given the large number of inclusions this week for both teams. Cronulla has the better attacking record, the absence of Shaun Johnson undermines a significant part of their advantage in attack. And I believe the Raiders' defence should be too good. Raiders by 12.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "Whatever happens, happens over the next whatever games we've got, I couldn't be more proud of this squad of players in where we've ended up in the competition. I get it. We get written off a lot. We got written off for this game. We love that in Canberra - getting written off, getting bagged and pushed around. It's what makes us tough down there."
Ricky Stuart: "I believe the reason nobody's won it outside the top four is that no one's been good enough. So if we're good enough we've got the opportunity. We'll be ready to play. If we're good enough we'll be there at the end."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Semi Valemi
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Jordan Rapana
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Dunamis Lui
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Siliva Havili
15. Sia Soliola
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Sam Williams
21. Matt Timoko
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, possibly season)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Indefinite, likely season)
Ryan Sutton, Knee, MCL (Season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee, ACL (Season)
Curtis Scott, Leg (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended personal leave
Cronulla Sharks
1. Will Kennedy
2. Sione Katoa
3. Josh Dugan
4. Jesse Ramien
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Connor Tracey
7. Chad Townsend
8. Braden Hamlin-Uele
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Aaron Woods
11. Briton Nikora
12. Wade Graham
13. Toby Rudolf
14. Siosifi Talakai
15. Scott Sorensen
16. Andrew Fifita
17. Jack Williams
18. Tieg Wilton
20. Mawene Hiroti
Officials
Referee: Grand Atkins
Touch judges: Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, Phil Henderson
Video referee: Jared Maxwell
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