Whosze yoz luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

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KasparRaider
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Whosze yoz luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by KasparRaider »

An interesting read. I don’t think I have seen it elsewhere on the site.

Grand Final appearance delivers Canberra Raiders a 60 per cent increase in support

Despite being in last place, and on track for their first Wooden Spoon since joining the competition in 1988, the Brisbane Broncos have again topped the annual Roy Morgan NRL club supporter ladder with 930,000 supporters representing a drop of 8.5 per cent on a year ago.

2019 NRL Premiers the Sydney Roosters was one of the big winners over the last year with their support increasing 14.2% to 298,000 while support for the runners-up the Canberra Raiders was up an even larger 58.3% to 209,000.

Read more: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8524- ... 2009220339
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Dr Zaius »

Well that's depressing. Makes me want to cheer for the panthers even more if we get knocked out. Always barrack for the small market clubs.
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Seiffert82
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Seiffert82 »

Interesting analysis, but I find it impossible to believe we increased our actual supporter base by 58% in one season. Those numbers indicated we only had about 132,000 fans last year. If that's the case about half of them attended the grand final in person, wearing a jersey.


Possibly reflects the geographic focus of where the polling is undertaken.
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Botman
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Botman »

Yeah its interesting, Roy Morgan are certainly not amateurs in the field of data, so i dont know that they'd be tripped up in this by something as simple are geographical bais

Their methodologies are probably very sound and would account for a bunch of stuff we wouldnt even think about it.

My theory would be, our significant jump is probably because there is a bunch of people who were casual raiders fans who didnt really identify as one last year when the poll ran, got sucked into the GF hype last year and now fully identify as Raiders fans... these are the same people that in 2-3 years time we're not good, most will disengage again. (The hope for the club is we remain good for a long time and turn as many as possible into the hardcore group)

For lack of a better word, they're band wagon fans, so i can see how we get to that figure pretty easily. I know half a dozen blokes who 24 months ago who if they were called by Roy Morgan would have said they dont follow any NRL team, where as if you called them this morning, they'd chew your ear off about this crazy Round 20 line up Stick has named
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The Green Hornet
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by The Green Hornet »

Here's an idea nrl and 9, how about you give some other teams a crack at Friday night games and maybe the brand becomes bigger. People new to the game won't support a team that they can't watch.
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greeneyed
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by greeneyed »

Botman wrote: September 23, 2020, 10:33 am Yeah its interesting, Roy Morgan are certainly not amateurs in the field of data, so i dont know that they'd be tripped up in this by something as simple are geographical bais

Their methodologies are probably very sound and would account for a bunch of stuff we wouldnt even think about it.

My theory would be, our significant jump is probably because there is a bunch of people who were casual raiders fans who didnt really identify as one last year when the poll ran, got sucked into the GF hype last year and now fully identify as Raiders fans... these are the same people that in 2-3 years time we're not good, most will disengage again. (The hope for the club is we remain good for a long time and turn as many as possible into the hardcore group)

For lack of a better word, they're band wagon fans, so i can see how we get to that figure pretty easily. I know half a dozen blokes who 24 months ago who if they were called by Roy Morgan would have said they dont follow any NRL team, where as if you called them this morning, they'd chew your ear off about this crazy Round 20 line up Stick has named
You've actually hit the nail on the head here. The questions asked clearly produce results more akin to brand awareness than anything else. Do we really believe that the Melbourne Storm has almost 1 million supporters? I don't. It's likely that the survey involves ringing up people... and asking which NRL team do they follow. They might even suggest the names. If you ring up a person in Melbourne, they probably say the Storm... but do they actually ever go to a game, watch a game, pay any more attention than what's on a brief news report on the television news? I doubt it, they're more likely died in the wool AFL fans. Then the sample responses get scaled up by the population bases in the relevant markets. So I suspect the methodology is not sound.

The methodology is probably even more suspect because there'll be small samples from regional cities - and I would bet that significant support for the Raiders in Sydney and Brisbane doesn't properly get picked up. As made clear in the graph, it also only picks up support in Australia.
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greeneyed
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by greeneyed »

The Green Hornet wrote: September 23, 2020, 12:46 pm Here's an idea nrl and 9, how about you give some other teams a crack at Friday night games and maybe the brand becomes bigger. People new to the game won't support a team that they can't watch.
Yes indeed.
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BJ
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by BJ »

Agree. Channel 9 has shrunk the reach and coverage of rugby league outside Sydney and Brisbane. They only have themselves to blame.

EPL free to air shows Wolves and Southampton not just Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United etc.

Regional games must be shown on free to air in regional centres. We are losing fringe fans who can’t be bothered or don’t have access to Foxtel or NRL web apps. This is on the NRL’s head.
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Botman
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Botman »

greeneyed wrote: September 23, 2020, 1:31 pm
Botman wrote: September 23, 2020, 10:33 am Yeah its interesting, Roy Morgan are certainly not amateurs in the field of data, so i dont know that they'd be tripped up in this by something as simple are geographical bais

Their methodologies are probably very sound and would account for a bunch of stuff we wouldnt even think about it.

My theory would be, our significant jump is probably because there is a bunch of people who were casual raiders fans who didnt really identify as one last year when the poll ran, got sucked into the GF hype last year and now fully identify as Raiders fans... these are the same people that in 2-3 years time we're not good, most will disengage again. (The hope for the club is we remain good for a long time and turn as many as possible into the hardcore group)

For lack of a better word, they're band wagon fans, so i can see how we get to that figure pretty easily. I know half a dozen blokes who 24 months ago who if they were called by Roy Morgan would have said they dont follow any NRL team, where as if you called them this morning, they'd chew your ear off about this crazy Round 20 line up Stick has named
You've actually hit the nail on the head here. The questions asked clearly produce results more akin to brand awareness than anything else. Do we really believe that the Melbourne Storm has almost 1 million supporters? I don't. It's likely that the survey involves ringing up people... and asking which NRL team do they follow. They might even suggest the names. If you ring up a person in Melbourne, they probably say the Storm... but do they actually ever go to a game, watch a game, pay any more attention than what's on a brief news report on the television news? I doubt it, they're more likely died in the wool AFL fans. Then the sample responses get scaled up by the population bases in the relevant markets. So I suspect the methodology is not sound.

The methodology is probably even more suspect because there'll be small samples from regional cities - and I would bet that significant support for the Raiders in Sydney and Brisbane doesn't properly get picked up. As made clear in the graph, it also only picks up support in Australia.

But here's the rub, your definition of a fan/support may differ to someone elses who is answering the question. And RM can only take it at face value. So if a ton a Melbourne locals identify themselves as fans of the Storm, who are RM, you or I to argue that because they might not go to a game, or prioritise their AFL team over the storm that they're not Storm fans?

As for small samples in regional markets, as long as sample size mirrors population, then i wouldnt consider that a bad methodology. If you're sampling 50k of people to get a gauge of national feeling/sentiment like this, then you'd HAVE to have small samples from regional cities. If Australia's population is 25m, and ACT's is 300k and Sydney is 5m (just easy round figures, havent looked lately to know if they are accurate), then only about 1.2% of the 50k surveyed should be from the ACT, and 20% from Sydney if you're trying to do this right.

Look this sort of thing is never going to be perfect, but i think the general rankings as in who's up top, who's down the bottom and the trends of up vs down are going to be pretty good. So again, i would be their methodology is about as good as you can do for something like this short of surveying every person alive, and generally speaking, the results are a pretty good estimation
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greeneyed
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by greeneyed »

Botman wrote: September 23, 2020, 2:06 pm But here's the rub, your definition of a fan/support may differ to someone elses who is answering the question. And RM can only take it at face value. So if a ton a Melbourne locals identify themselves as fans of the Storm, who are RM, you or I to argue that because they might not go to a game, or prioritise their AFL team over the storm that they're not Storm fans?

As for small samples in regional markets, as long as sample size mirrors population, then i wouldnt consider that a bad methodology. If you're sampling 50k of people to get a gauge of national feeling/sentiment like this, then you'd HAVE to have small samples from regional cities. If Australia's population is 25m, and ACT's is 300k and Sydney is 5m (just easy round figures, havent looked lately to know if they are accurate), then only about 1.2% of the 50k surveyed should be from the ACT, and 20% from Sydney if you're trying to do this right.

Look this sort of thing is never going to be perfect, but i think the general rankings as in who's up top, who's down the bottom and the trends of up vs down are going to be pretty good. So again, i would be their methodology is about as good as you can do for something like this short of surveying every person alive, and generally speaking, the results are a pretty good estimation
I think to get an indication of the number of supporters a team has, I think you'd need a more complex survey. Who knows, they might do that... and this is just the part of the research they release. Once you ask them which team they support, then you'd need to ask them questions like, how many games do you watch on television, how many games to you attend, do you buy memberships, do you buy merchandise etc. Given the gulf between the people going to Storm games, and the number of people in Melbourne who say they support the Storm, the vast bulk of the respondents are probably no more than casually aware of the existence of the team. That's why I say this survey is more an indicator of brand awareness than anything.

I'd also like to have a lot more information about the methodology before I said it was sound. For example, they have the Cowboys with half a million supporters... yet the population of Townsville is less than 200,000. They clearly are scaling that up across multiple north Queensland regions. Do they do the same for the Raiders? Canberra/Queanbeyan has a much bigger population than Townsville, yet the the support is less than half that population... yet there would be a lot of Raiders fans in the regions.

Maybe they don't scale by regions... just try and get the best possible sample size they can in each region and then escalate by the entire population of Australia...

I don't know... but that's why I'd think I'd need more information on the methodology before I'd say it was sound. At the moment, I'm not sure if the sampling technique or the scaling up is sound. Given the results, they are questionable, in my view.
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Seiffert82
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Seiffert82 »

To that extent, I fully expect our numbers to drop significantly next year given our lack of FTA TV exposure this season. Time will tell.

That's the thing. I highly doubt we've increased our genuine fanbase by 58% based on a grand final appearance.
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gangrenous
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Post by gangrenous »

greeneyed wrote:I doubt it, they're more likely died in the wool AFL fans.
Here’s the real problem with the approach. Surveying dead people.
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by Smurfette »

I don’t have a grand to spend on the full report, but I found this one from last year comparing Raiders and Roosters supporters. This seems to confirm that being a ‘supporter’ is based on self-identification. So yes, very loose and capturing lots of bandwagoners/people who feel the need to pretend to follow a team for incidental conversations in the workplace. Most Broncos supporters, in my experience, and seemingly at least 5 per cent of Roosters supporters who neither watch nor attend games.

Though smaller in number, Raiders’ fans have demonstrated a higher commitment to the game with 31% going to NRL matches and 82% watching the NRL on TV. In contrast only 24% of Roosters’ fans go to NRL matches and 71% watch NRL on TV.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8158- ... 1910040228
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gangrenous
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Re: Whosze Yoz Luvez - NRL Favourite Teams

Post by gangrenous »

Now we know the polling is broken. How can you get 24% of one Roosters fan?
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