Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
Saturday 26 September 5:30pm
Kogarah Jubilee Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Windy. Sunny. Sunny. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 10 Max 17
The Raiders travel to Kogarah for a meeting with the Sharks in the final round of the regular season - with a possible spot in the top four on the line for the Green Machine.
Last round: 2020 Round 19. Canberra Raiders 26 - New Zealand Warriors 14. It was a strange old game, filled with controversy. The Raiders faced considerable adversity, due to injury and the officiating. They did not play well, but they did enough to win by a good margin, in a gutsy effort.
More on Round 19: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has made a host of changes, resting his stars and handing an NRL debut to Adam Cook, Darby Medlyn and Jarrett Subloo. Cook will start at fullback in place of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, while rookies Harley Smith-Shields and Matt Timoko replace Jarrod Croker and Jordan Rapana (knee) in the centres. Jack Wighton and George Williams are also both being rested, with Matt Frawley and Sam Williams to form the new halves pairing. Sam Williams has been named captain. In the forwards, Josh Papalii, Elliott Whitehead, John Bateman and Joe Tapine are all being rested. Sia Soliola (facial fracture) returns from injury at starting prop. Tom Starling comes in at starting hooker, with Siliva Havili moving to lock. Corey Harawira-Naera will start in the second row. Kai O'Donnell, Darby Medlyn and Jarrett Subloo join the bench. Ata Mariota has been named on the extended bench, along with Wighton, Tapine and Whitehead, but none are expected to play.
Last weekend, the Sharks lost half Shaun Johnson (achilles) and former Raiders forward Royce Hunt (knee) for the season. They have five eighth Chad Townsend on the sidelines due to suspension, but second-rower Wade Graham will return from a ban in this match at five eighth. Nene Macdonald replaces Sione Katoa on the wing, Mawene Hiroti replaces Josh Dugan at centre, and Teig Wilton comes onto the bench.
Late changes: Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead dropped out of the Canberra Raiders' squad on Friday evening, leaving Joe Tapine and Ata Mariota on the extended bench. The Sharks omitted starting forwards Siosifa Talakai and Toby Rudolf, replacing them with Teig Wilton and Scott Sorensen. Billy Magoulias and Braydon Trindall have been added to the top 17 on the bench.
History: The Raiders have won only 35 of 76 matches against the Cronulla Sharks, for a 46 per cent win rate. Canberra has won four of the past 10 clashes between the clubs. The Raiders lost both clashes in 2018. They suffered a 24-16 loss in the nation's capital in Round 10, and then lost the return clash at Shark Park, 28-24, in Round 19. But the Raiders turned that around in 2019. They had a hard fought 22-20 win at Canberra Stadium in Round 14 - after leading 20-8 at half time. Then in Round 24, the Raiders won, 15-14, at Shark Park in golden point - with Aidan Sezer kicking three field goals. That spoiled the party for Paul Gallen's final home game for the Sharks. The two teams have never met before at Jubilee Oval.
2019 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2019 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2018 Round 19 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
2018 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
Form: Raiders: WWLWW
Sharks: LWLWL
The Sharks lost 34-18 to the Roosters at the SGG in their last outing. They have had recent wins over the Warriors (22-14) and the Cowboys (28-12). But they lost to the top eight Knights (38-10) and Panthers (38-12) during the course of their past five games. The Raiders have only one recent loss - to the Roosters in the second Grand Final re-match (18-6). In their past five matches, they have had wins over the Titans (36-16), Bulldogs (34-20), Dragons (37-8) and Warriors (26-14). All four of those teams were in the bottom half of the ladder.
Betting: Following the announcement of the two teams, the Sharks have been installed as $1.57 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.40. The Raiders have 4.0 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have lengthened since the teams were announced.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and eighth (Sharks) on the ladder. The Raiders can still finish in fourth, but Canberra must win this match, and the Eels must lose to the Tigers. The Sharks have qualified for the finals - and regardless of the result on Saturday, they cannot improve on their position on the ladder.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has, frankly, been pretty average. They sit in eighth place for most tries scored (70) - while the Sharks are among the top four attacking teams (fourth, 80 tries). The Sharks have made more line breaks, tackle breaks, try assists and offloads than the Raiders, while half Shaun Johnson has more try assists than any player in the NRL (23). The trouble for the Sharks is, he's now been ruled out for the season (achilles).
The other problem for the Sharks is their defence. The Raiders are ranked fifth for fewest tries conceded, the Sharks 10th. Cronulla has also conceded almost as many points as they've scored. No team has a worse tackle efficiency rate than the Sharks. They rank first in the NRL for missed tackles and second for line breaks conceded. While the Raiders' defence is fairly good, it is worrying that they have conceded the first try in each of the past eight matches. Part of the reason is that they are losing the battle for territory early in matches. They won't be able to afford to do that against the top teams.
The other area the Raiders will need to watch is discipline. They rank third for most restarts conceded and equal fifth for penalties conceded. In addition, the Raiders are in the top four teams for most errors.
2020 Season record: Raiders 13 and 6 (5th, +118)
Sharks 10 and 9 (8th, +10)
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 8th on tries scored
Sharks 24 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 4th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Sharks 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 10th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Sharks 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Sharks 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1673 running metres from 186 runs (13 dummy half runs), 164 kick return metres, 556 post contact metres per match
Sharks 1641 running metres from 182 runs (8 dummy half runs), 181 kick return metres, 495 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Sharks 31 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Sharks 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sharks 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Sharks 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Sharks 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 611 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Sharks 514 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 357 made, 27 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Sharks 319 made, 35 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 86 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1449, Sharks 1401 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Sharks 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Sharks 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Sharks 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Sharks 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Sharks 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Ronaldo Mulitalo and Nick Cotric These two wingers won't directly face each other, but they are the two most prominent men on the flanks. Ronaldo Mulitalo has made 14 appearances in 2020, and has a good haul of 10 tries, two try assists, 12 line breaks, 54 tackle breaks and an average 108 running metres per game. Nick Cotric has not been in career best form this season, but he's still got 11 tries, up on the four he scored in 2019. Cotric ranks fourth in the NRL for tackle breaks (99), behind James Tedesco, Nofoaluma and Kalyn Ponga. In addition, he's posted 11 line breaks, two try assists and 110 running metres per game. Both players have a tackle efficiency rate of just over 70 per cent), while Cotric has one more try cause (16 versus 15). Cotric has had some distractions with contract negotiations and is heading to the Bulldogs in 2021. He's hopefully now put that behind him, and can lift his involvements at the business end of the season.
Corey Harawira-Naera and Briton Nikora Corey Harawira-Naera will start in the second row for the Raiders, with Elliott Whitehead being rested. CHN has made seven appearances for Canberra, since joining the club mid-season. He's played six of those games from the bench, and one at lock. He's played no more than 35 minutes in a game in 2020. He's averaged 80 running metres and 13 tackles per game. He's also made three line breaks and produced one line break assist. Nikora has also scored four tries, while notching up four line breaks, one try assist and one line break assist. He's averaged 74 running metres and 33 tackles per game. Nikora wins this match up for mine.
Tom Starling and Blayke Brailey Blayke Brailey is the younger of the Brailey brothers. They both came through the Sharks' juniors, but with both being hookers, Jayden decided to head to the Knights. Blayke, 21, made his debut in 2019, and has played in every game so far this year. He's scored three tries and produced six try assists, seven line break assists and five forced line drop outs. He's also averaged 42 running metres, 29 kicking metres and 28 tackles per game. Siliva Havili and Tom Starling have done a great job in filling in for the injured Josh Hodgson in the second half of the season. Starling, 22, plays the biggest minutes at dummy half, and has really impressed. He's got three tries, two try assists and two line break assists. He's averaged 42 running metres and 36 tackles per match. Brailey has the bigger reputation, but it is hard to split these two on form.
Our tip: The Raiders were favourites in this game - until the team lists were announced. Ricky Stuart is no doubt hoping a young team can jag a win over the Sharks and that is not out of the question. The Sharks have a number of senior players out, including halves Shaun Johnson and Chad Townsend. But it appears Ricky Stuart is not expecting his team can finish in fourth - and is preparing for a meeting with the Sharks in Week 1 of the finals. With the teams at full strength, the Raiders should have had a good win. The heart is hoping the Raiders debutants and fringe players can step up and win... but he head says Sharks by six.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders forward Elliott Whitehead: "We want to get that win and go into the finals. We want to put a bit of pressure on Parramatta. If we win and they lose we'll go fourth so we'll be going down there to win. We need to build some momentum leading into the finals."
Canberra Raiders
1. Adam Cook
2. Semi Valemi
3. Matt Timoko
4. Harley Smith-Shields
5. Nick Cotric
6. Matt Frawley
7. Sam Williams
8. Dunamis Lui
9. Tom Starling
10. Sia Soliola
11. Hudson Young
12. Corey Harawira-Naera
13. Siliva Havili
14. Kai O'Donnell
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Darby Medlyn
17. Jarrett Subloo
18. Ata Mariota
19. Joe Tapine
Injury/Suspension
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Rib (Finals Week 1)
Jordan Rapana, Knee (Finals Week 1)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Indefinite, possibly Finals Week 1)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, possibly season)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Indefinite, likely season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Curtis Scott, Leg (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended personal leave
Cronulla Sharks
1. Will Kennedy
2. Nene Macdonald
3. Mawene Hiroti
4. Jesse Ramien
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Wade Graham
7. Connor Tracey
8. Braden Hamlin-Uele
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Aaron Woods
11. Briton Nikora
17. Teig Wilton
14. Scott Sorensen
15. Jack Williams
16. Andrew Fifita
18. Billy Magoulias
19. Braydon Trindall
20. Bryson Goodwin
21. Daniel Vasquez
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Phil Henderson, Todd Smith
Video referee: Jared Maxwell
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLSharksRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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