Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Sunday 20 September 2:00pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Showers. 🌦 Cloudy. Very high (90 per cent) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Chance of any rain: 90 per cent. Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm. Min 12 Max 19
The Raiders play their final home game of the regular season this Sunday against the New Zealand Warriors.
Last round: 2020 Round 18. Canberra Raiders 37 - St George Illawarra Dragons 8. It was a comprehensive victory for the Raiders at Wollongong, their biggest ever margin against St George Illawarra. The Dragons were held scoreless in the second half, while the Raiders crossed four times.
More on Round 18: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has decided to start Siliva Havili at hooker, with Tom Starling going back to the bench. Starling has started the past couple of weeks, but the coach has returned to the winning formula of Havili taking the early hits and Starling coming on when the opposition forwards tire. Dunamis Lui has also been named at starting prop, with Ryan Sutton on the bench. Sia Soliola (facial fracture) has been named on the extended bench, but Curtis Scott (leg) will be given further time in rehabilitation.
Warriors forward Jamayne Taunoa-Brown has been suspended for this match, after pleading guilty to a grade two dangerous contact charge. Lachlan Burr replaces him at starting prop. The Warriors have also lost the services of Eels loan players Daniel Alvaro and George Jennings, who have returned to Parramatta. Hayze Perham moves to the wing, replacing Jennings, while Adam Keighran comes in at centre. Eliesa Katoa and dubtant Tom Ale are inclusions on the bench. The Warriors have named Peter Hiku at starting centre. He will need to pass concussion protocols after leaving the field late in the match against the Sharks.
Late changes: Sam Williams and Sia Soliola dropped out of the Canberra Raiders squad on Saturday afternoon, with Matt Frawley and Matt Timoko remaining on the extended bench. Eliesa Katoa (hand) and Rocco Berry were omitted from the Warriors squad.
History: Canberra has won 23 of 43 games played against the Warriors. The Raiders have won two of the past five matches between the clubs - but six of the last 10. In Round 20 last year, Canberra came away with the competition points, winning 46-12 in Auckland. However, the Warriors got the victory in Round 25 at Canberra Stadium, after the Raiders had already secured a top four finish and rested some of their star players. The Raiders defeated the Warriors, 20-6, in the Auckland club's "home" match at Robina on the Gold Coast - just prior to the suspension of the season. The Raiders have won 12 of the 18 games played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.
2020 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2019 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2019 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2018 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2018 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Form: Raiders: WWWLW
Warriors: LWWLL
The Warriors lost 22-14 to the Sharks at Kogarah in their last outing, a match only secured by the Sharks in the final 10 minutes. The Warriors have also had two other recent losses to top eight teams - the Panthers (18-12) and the Eels (24-18) - but defeated the Knights, 36-6. The Raiders have only one recent loss - to the Roosters in the second Grand Final re-match (18-6). In their past five games, the Green Machine has had wins over the Broncos (36-8), Titans (36-16), Bulldogs (34-20) and Dragons (37-8).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.15 favourites, while the Warriors are paying $7.00. The Warriors have 15.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and eleventh (Warriors) on the ladder. The Raiders can finish as high as third, but unless the Roosters or Eels stumble, it's more likely they'll finish in fifth. The Raiders must win their final two games against the Warriors and Sharks to ensure that. The Warriors finals hopes were extinguished last weekend.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has improved, scoring six tries in four of their past five games. But in their only clash against a top four team - the Roosters - they could only cross once. They sit in eighth place for most tries scored (65) - but that's still well ahead of the Warriors (13th, 51 tries). The Warriors might not have a lot of points in them, but they do rank above the Raiders for running metres gained, kick return metres and post contact metres. The Warriors are a bit more expansive in attack than the Raiders, ranking third for offloads (Raiders 11th).
The Raiders clearly have the better defensive record, ranked fifth for tries conceded (Warriors 11th). The Warriors have conceded 26 more tries than the Raiders - and rank fourth for missed tackles. However, their ineffective tackle rate is fairly good, and their tackle efficiency percentage isn't far behind the Raiders.
The Warriors rank third in the competition for penalties conceded (Raiders eighth). But the Raiders will need to watch their discipline in the rucks in this game. Only the Sea Eagles have conceded more set restarts than the Raiders (74, Warriors 62), while only the Knights have been awarded more set restarts than the Warriors (70, Raiders 66).
2020 Season record: Raiders 12 and 6 (5th, +106)
Warriors 7 and 11 (11th, -115)
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 8th on tries scored
Warriors 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Warriors 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 51 per cent, Warriors 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Warriors 80 per cent
Running: Raiders 1672 running metres from 187 runs (14 dummy half runs), 166 kick return metres, 552 post contact metres per match
Warriors 1686 running metres from 184 runs (11 dummy half runs), 172 kick return metres, 610 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Warriors 25 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Warriors 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Warriors 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Warriors 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Warriors 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 625 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Warriors 544 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 358 made, 27 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Warriors 364 made, 31 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1449, Warriors 1490 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Warriors 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Warriors 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Warriors 6 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Warriors 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Warriors 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Raiders fullback, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad looks on Warriors captain, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck as a mentor - from the days when CNK was a young Warrior. Tuivasa-Sheck was the 2018 Dally M Medalist, and is still ranked highly by his peers. He was voted third best fullback in the competition in the 2020 Players' Poll, behind James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic. In 2020, RTS has scored five tries and produced three try assists, seven line breaks, 79 tackle breaks and 222 running metres per game. The Raiders' No. 1 compares pretty well. He has seven tries, three try assists, three line breaks, 63 tackle breaks and averaged 178 running metres per game.
George Williams and Chanel Harris-Tavita The Raiders' latest English recruit, half George Williams, has had a great start to his NRL career. He's played every game of 2020, scoring four tries and producing 12 try assists, four line break assists, 11 offloads and 15 forced line drop outs. He's got a great short kicking game, but has still averaged 242 kicking metres. Channel Harris-Tavita is still a young player, having made his debut last year. He's made 24 NRL appearances, with 11 so far this season - due to a mix of form and injury. He's spent the past five weeks in the No. 7 jersey, after starting the year at five eighth. He's scored two tries and delivered two try assists, two line break assists, four offloads and six forced line drop outs. He's averaged just 156 kicking metres. Williams runs more (73 metres per game, compared with 43 for Harris-Tavita) has the better defence (tackle efficiency of 87 per cent, 83 per cent for Harris-Tavita). Williams wins this match-up for mine.
Joe Tapine and Jazz Tevaga Jazz Tevaga has been one of the Warriors' best since coming back from injury, having played every game at lock in the second half of the season. in 10 appearances, he's scored one try and made 24 offloads and 22 tackle breaks. He's averaged 136 running metres, 57 post contact metres and 36 tackles per game. Joe Tapine is currently in career best form for the Raiders, having stepped up to cover the loss of a number of key middle forwards. In 2020, he's scored two tries and made 28 offloads and 32 tackle breaks. He's averaging 121 running metres, 47 post contact metres and 30 tackles per game. Should be a good contest.
Our tip: The Raiders are warm favourites in this game and they deserve to be. The Warriors' interim coach Todd Payten has done a remarkable job with a squad that has been cobbled together. They have had to set up camp on the Central Coast since the resumption of the season because of COVID travel restrictions. They have had to get by without star players like David Fusitu'a and Ken Maumalo, who've been given compassionate leave so they could return home. They have been significantly affected by injury, and have depended on player loans from other clubs. Coach Stephen Kearney was sacked in June. Since then, Payten has somehow built a competitive outfit. Though they now cannot make the finals, I expect they will want to finish the season on a strong note. What better way than to beat one of the contenders? So for Canberra, it is another danger game. However, if the the Raiders play to their potential, they should be too strong. Raiders by 12.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "Our middles have been our backbone all year. There are so many of those guys there, that have taken extra workload on because of the players that we've got sitting on the sideline. We've got a number of great players who can make the first 13, the 17, all sitting in the rehab group. Those guys in the middle have all had to take extra responsibility and workload, and I'm proud how they've actually done that without looking sideways. They've taken the bit and they're really the backbone of the team at the moment."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Semi Valemi
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Jordan Rapana
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Siliva Havili
10. Dunamis Lui
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Sam Williams
19. Matt Frawley
Injury/Suspension
Curtis Scott, Leg (Rd 20)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, possibly season)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Indefinite, likely season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
New Zealand Warriors
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
2. Adam Pompey
3. Adam Keighran
4. Peta Hiku
5. Hayze Perham
6. Kodi Nikorima
7. Chanel Harris-Tavita
8. Lachlan Burr
9. Karl Lawton
10. Isaiah Papali'i
11. Jack Murchie
12. Tohu Harris
13. Jazz Tevaga
14. Wayde Egan
15. Adam Blair
17. Tom Ale
18. Josh Curran
20. Paul Turner
21. Gerard Beale
Officials
Referee: Chris Sutton
Touch judges: Drew Oultram, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video referee: Steve Clark
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersWarriors
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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