Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
Saturday 12 September 3:00pm
Wollongong Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Mostly sunny. Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending north to northeasterly in the afternoon then tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 12 Max 21
There are just three matches remaining in the regular season, and the Raiders start their run to the finals with a road trip to Wollongong to face the Dragons.
Last round: 2020 Round 17. Sydney Roosters 18 - Canberra Raiders 6. The Raiders started the match in ice cold fashion, conceding a try to James Tedesco inside the first five minutes. It was the result of the Raiders losing the kicking battle, the battle for territory and their own error. But they grafted their way back into the game, and probably finished the first half as the better team - despite trailing by four points. It was a credit to the Roosters' defence that they led 10-6. In the second half, the Roosters simply suffocated the Raiders. The Raiders were their own worst enemy, making crucial errors when their limited opportunities arose. It was a deflating loss for the Raiders, one that probably cost them their shot at a top four finish.
More on Round 17: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has named the same top 17 that took on the Roosters. Prop Josh Papalii has been cleared of a serious shoulder injury, after being unable to return to the field in the second half against the Roosters. He's been named at starting prop. Curtis Scott and Emre Guler had been targetting a return in this match, but that has also been ruled out. However, Sia Soliola (facial fracture) has been included on the extended bench. For the Dragons, former Raiders prop Paul Vaughan returns at starting prop after serving a suspension, alongside Kaide Ellis. Josh Kerr and Blake Lawrie drop to the bench and Tyrell Fuimaono goes to the reserves list. Codey Ramsey will make his NRL debut on the wing, replacing Mikaele Ravalawa.
Late changes: The Raiders confirmed on Friday that Josh Papalii would be fit for the match, with Sia Soliola and Sam Williams omitted from the squad. Brayden Williame and Max Feagai dropped out of the Dragons squad on Friday afternoon.
History: The Raiders have won 19 of 31 games against St George Illawarra, and drawn one. Between 2003 and 2013, the Raiders were the Dragons' "hoodoo" team, with Canberra losing just one of the 16 matches played. The Dragons broke the hoodoo with four wins in a row between 2014 and 2016. But the Raiders have now won three of the past four clashes. Earlier this year, in Round 8, the Raiders led 22-0 before letting the Dragons back into the match in the final 20 minutes. Canberra ultimately won 22-16. The Raiders have won four of eight games played against the Dragons at Wollongong, and drawn one.
2020 Round 8: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
2019 Round 17: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
2018 Round 11: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
Form: Raiders: LWWWL
Dragons: LWWLL
The Dragons suffered a 23-22 golden point loss to the Cowboys in Townsville in their last outing. They have also had recent losses to the Titans (14-10) and Roosters (24-16), but won against the Broncos (28-24) and Eels (14-12) in their past five games. So there's a good performance or two in there. The Raiders have had recent wins over bottom four teams - the Bulldogs (34-20), Titans (36-16) and Broncos (36-8). But they have lost twice in their past five matches to top four teams - the Panthers (28-12) and Roosters (18-6).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.35 favourites, while the Dragons are paying $3.25. The Dragons have 8.0 points start in the line betting. The Dragons' odds have lengthened since opening.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and eleventh (Dragons) on the ladder. The Raiders can finish as high as third, but it's more likely they'll now qualify outside the top four. The Dragons could mathematically still finish in eighth, but they would need to win their remaining three, and depend on the Sharks to lose three... and the Tigers and Warriors to lose at least one. That's not happening.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has improved over the past month, but they could only cross for one try against the Roosters last Saturday night. They've dropped to eighth place for most tries scored (59) - but that's still ahead of the Dragons (11th, 53 tries). The Dragons might not have a lot of points in them, but they do rank above the Raiders for running metres gained (fifth, Raiders ninth) and kick return metres (fifth, Raiders 12th). The Dragons are second only to the Panthers for completions (Raiders eighth) - but they still have a more expansive attacking game than the Raiders. The Dragons rank fifth for general play passes (Raiders 15th) and are middle of the pack for one pass hit ups (Raiders third). The Raiders rank third for dummy half runs, the Dragons 11th. Both teams are in the top four for total kicks, but no team kicks long more than the Dragons - and they have produced the most kicking metres in the competition (Raiders fourth).
The Raiders have the better defensive record, ranked fifth for tries conceded (Dragons 11th). Both teams have good effective tackle rates, but the Dragons do give up a lot of running metres (ranked fifth for most metres conceded, Raiders ninth).
2020 Season record: Raiders 11 and 6 (5th, +77)
Dragons 6 and 11 (11th, -29)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 8th on tries scored
Dragons 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Dragons 21 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 8th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Dragons 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Dragons 82 per cent
Running: Raiders 1669 running metres from 186 runs (14 dummy half runs), 164 kick return metres, 555 post contact metres per match
Dragons 1796 running metres from 191 runs (10 dummy half runs), 198 kick return metres, 596 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Dragons 29 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Dragons 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Dragons 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Dragons 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Dragons 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 627 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Dragons 690 kicking metres from 23 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 359 made, 28 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Dragons 380 made, 26 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 91 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1456, Dragons 1565 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Dragons 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Dragons 4 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Dragons 4 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Dragons 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Dragons 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Matt Dufty Dragons fullback Matt Dufty was the next big thing for quite a long time. After making 26 first grade appearances in 2018, he only played 16 games in 2019. But in 2020, he's shown how dangerous he can be in attack. He has 11 tries, nine try assists, four line breaks, 56 tackle breaks and 151 metres gained per game. The Raiders will have to watch him. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has recently been getting back to his best form. He has seven tries, three try assists, three line breaks, 60 tackle breaks and averaged 180 running metres per game. Dufty has the stronger ball playing ability, but Nicoll-Klokstad is up with the best runners in the NRL. Nicoll-Klokstad is certainly the better defender. No fullback has more try causes in the NRL than Dufty (17). CNK has nine. For mine, it's a pretty even match-up overall.
Jarrod Croker and Zac Lomax Zac Lomax is still just 20 years of age, but he's already one of the top centres in the NRL. In 2020, he's scored 10 tries and 55 goals - and has six try assists, six line breaks and 36 tackle breaks to his name. He averages 102 running metres per match. Jarrod Croker had some unhappy recent games, and he'll be looking to bounce back this week. He'll have his hands full containing Lomax. Croker has scored three tries and 55 goals - and had delivered five try assists, five line breaks, 21 tackle breaks and 69 running metres per game. Both Croker and Lomax have an 87 per cent conversion success rate. Lomax has conceded 13 tries this season, Croker eight - though both have an 87 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Lomax also has a handling error in him - he is the player with the most errors in the league (30). They Raiders will want to pressure him in that department.
Jack Wighton and Corey Norman Corey Norman has had an up and down career, on and off the field. But he's been having a pretty good season in 2020. He's scored four tries and produced five try assists, seven line break assists and 13 forced line drop outs. Jack Wighton has been one of the Raiders' strongest performers this year, but he was below his best against the Roosters. He'll be very determined not to repeat that. He's got eight tries, six try assists, six line break assists and seven forced line drop outs in 2020. He is very solid in defence - with an 88 per cent tackle efficiency rate and just four try causes. Norman has produced seven try causes, while posting an 86 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Norman has been good this year, but Wighton has been better.
Tom Starling and Ben Hunt Tom Starling is set to be rewarded with a two year contract extension with the Raiders. He's been very impressive in filling in for an injured Josh Hodgson, along with Siliva Havili. Havili has started in the No. 9 most weeks, with Starling coming on later and playing the major minutes at dummy half. Starling's started the last two weeks and has performed well in that role too. He's very nippy around the rucks and gives good service. He's small in stature, but that doesn't stop him taking on the big blokes in defence. Last week, he produced a great tackle on Sonny Bill Williams - on SBW's first touch - helping to generate an error from the Roosters. Starling has three tries, two try assists and two line break assists from eight appearances. Ben Hunt is another player who has had his ups and downs over his career. He's mostly played at hooker in the past nine weeks. and the Dragons look better with him there. He's scored one try in 2020, and delivered seven try assists, five line break assists and eight forced line drop outs. Starling will no doubt relish the challenge of taking on the veteran.
Elliott Whithead and Tyson Frizell Elliott Whitehead has been in the Raiders top four players in 2020 in my view. He has scored four tries and produced seven line breaks, four line break assists, and seven offloads. He has a lot more skill in attack than the average second rower. Dragons back rower Tyson Frizell has one try, two line breaks and 13 offloads this year. He's still very damaging. He averages 125 running metres, compared with 75 for Whitehead. He also averages 37 tackles per game (94 per cent tackle efficiency), compared with 32 per game (90 per cent tackle efficiency) for Whitehead. They'll both have a big bearing on the outcome of this match.
Our tip: The Raiders are expected to win this game, and are deserved favourites. But the Dragons have shown that they can unsettle Canberra when they open up in attack. They have some talented players in their squad - the likes of McInnes, Hunt, Frizell, Vaughan and Norman. They have pushed a number of teams in the top eight - and defeated the Eels. And the stats are by no means all in favour of the Green Machine. So the Raiders will need to be on guard. If Papalii is missing, it makes things just that bit harder for Canberra. There is also the possibility of some after effects of the Raiders' intense clash with the Roosters. But I think Canberra can win, and win well. Raiders by 12.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart after the loss to the Roosters: "I said it here seven or eight weeks ago when everyone wrote us off, that you don't understand what's inside. No one gave us the ability to show you what's within the playing group, what their mentality is. Since the Josh Hodgson injury, Corey Horsburgh, Emre and the boys who are out in the middle, I think they've shown you how much spirit is in the joint."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Semi Valemei
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Jordan Rapana
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Ryan Sutton
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Siliva Havili
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
19. Matt Frawley
20. Matt Timoko
Injury/Suspension
Curtis Scott, Leg (Rd 19-20)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Indefinite)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
St George Illawarra Dragons
1. Matthew Dufty
2. Jordan Pereira
3. Euan Aitken
4. Zac Lomax
5. Cody Ramsey
6. Corey Norman
7. Adam Clune
8. Kaide Ellis
9. Ben Hunt
10. Paul Vaughan
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Jacob Host
13. Cameron McInnes
14. Billy Brittain
15. Josh Kerr
16. Blake Lawrie
17. Jackson Ford
18. Eddie Blacker
19. Tyrell Fuimaono
Officials
Referee: Adam Gee
Touch judges: Jon Stone, Drew Oultram,
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLDragonsRaiders
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