2020 Rd 17 V Roosters: Game Day
Posted: September 1, 2020, 11:00 am
2020 Rd 17 V Roosters: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Saturday 5 September 7:35pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 4 Max 17
The Canberra Raiders won the first re-match of the 2019 Grand Final, when the Green Machine defeated the Sydney Roosters at the Sydney Cricket Ground in Round 10. Can they do it again in the second, in Round 17 at Canberra Stadium?
Last round: 2020 Round 16. Canberra Raiders 34 - Canterbury Bulldogs 20. It was a slow start for the Canberra Raiders in the clash with the last placed Bulldogs. The Raiders were flat for a good part of the first half and they were out-enthused by Canterbury. The Bulldogs built momentum and controlled the territory - and deservedly led at half time. A sin binning for Tom Starling early in the second half seemed to stir the Raiders into action. Jack Wighton scored a double with Starling in the bin - giving the Raiders the lead. And suddenly, the wind was taken out of the Bulldogs' sails.
More on Round 16: As I saw it
Team news: Josh Papalii and Siliva Havili return to the Raiders starting line up, with Dunamis Lui and Tom Starling dropping back to the bench. Corey Harawira-Naera has been included on the bench in place of Matt Timoko. Curtis Scott (lower leg) was ruled out by the Raiders on Friday. He has been cleared of a fracture, but he is experiencing soreness after the plate in his leg copped a knock. Matt Timoko is on standby.
Sonny Bill Williams will make his second, much hyped, return to the NRL for the Roosters in this match, named on the bench. When he enters the fray, he's expecting to play at lock. Luke Keary (ribs) returns from injury at five eighth, replacing Drew Hutchison. Boyd Cordner moves back into his regular place in the second row, with Nat Butcher dropping back to the bench. Pasa Faamausili goes back to the reserves. Second rower Angus Crichton (knee) and Mitch Aubusson have also been included on the extended bench - and Trent Robinson says both are close to a return. Hooker Jake Friend suffered concussion in the match against the Broncos, but has been named in the starting team.
Late changes: The Raiders have replaced the injured Curtis Scott at centre with Matt Timoko. Kai O’Donnell dropped out of the Canberra squad on Friday night, leaving Sam Williams and Semi Valemei the extended bench.
The Roosters omitted hooker Jake Friend (concussion) on Friday night and have replaced him with Freddy Lussick in the starting team. Angus Crichton has joined the bench. Poasa Faamausili has dropped out of the squad, while Mitch Aubusson and Drew Hutchison remain on the extended bench.
History: The Raiders have won 29 of 65 matches against the Sydney Roosters - and four of the past 10 games. The Roosters won all three games played between the clubs in 2019, including the Grand Final. They won 30-24 at Lang Park during Magic Round last year, after going to a 30-6 lead early in the second half. The Raiders' subsequent comeback fell short. Then in Round 21, Canberra suffered a narrow, 22-18, loss to the Roosters at Canberra Stadium - with the Raiders' comeback again just falling short. The Raiders lost 14-8 in the Grand Final. It was a game marred by officiating controversy, with the Green Machine being the better team for much of the contest. In Round 10 this year, the Raiders won the Grand Final re-match, 24-20, in a courageous performance. The Roosters have won just seven of 21 games at Canberra Stadium.
2020 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2018 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Form: Raiders: WLWWW
Roosters: WWLWW
The Roosters had a big, 58-12, win over the Broncos in their last outing, while they also have recent wins over the Tigers (38-16), Dragons (24-16) and Titans (18-12). Their only recent loss was to the Storm (24-6) in Round 14. The Raiders are on a three game winning streak - against bottom four teams. They have also had only one recent loss, to the Panthers (28-12) in Round 13.
Betting: The Roosters are $1.42 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.85. The Raiders have 6.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders odds have drifted since opening.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fourth (Roosters) and fifth (Raiders) on the ladder.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has improved - having scored six tries in each of their past three games. They now rank equal seventh for tries scored (58), with the Knights.
The Roosters, however, are the No. 1 attacking team in the league. They've averaged almost five tries per game, and have scored nearly 20 more tries than the Green Machine. They posted 10 against the Broncos just last weekend. They rank first for line breaks (Raiders ninth) and kick return metres (Raiders 12th), second for tackle breaks (Raiders fifth), third for post contact metres (Raiders 10th), and fourth for running metres (Raiders 9th).
The downside of the Roosters' more expansive play is that they rank third in the league for errors and their completion rate is in the bottom four teams. Unfortunately, the Raiders have been more conservative and still rank fifth for errors. The Roosters are probably not as expansive as you might imagine, however. They rank eighth for general play passes (Raiders 15th) and fifth for one pass hit ups (Raiders third). However, the Roosters very actively engage the line and run supports - and their play makers deliver a heap of try assists and line break assists.
The Roosters also have a better defensive record than the Raiders - but it's much closer in this department. The Roosters rank fourth in the NRL for the fewest points and tries conceded, the Raiders fourth. Only the Titans have given up more ineffective tackles than the Roosters (Raiders rank 14th). However, the Raiders miss more tackles, and Canberra's effective tackle rate is just ahead of the Roosters.
The Raiders rank equal third for kicking metres gained, the Roosters 14th. But given the running metres gained by the Roosters, they don't have to kick long as often.
Bluntly, there are not many departments where the Roosters don't have a statistical advantage.
2020 Season record: Raiders 11 and 5 (5th, +89)
Roosters 11 and 5 (4th, +224)
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th on tries scored
Roosters 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 1st on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Roosters 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Roosters 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Roosters 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1679 running metres from 187 runs (14 dummy half runs), 164 kick return metres, 558 post contact metres per match
Roosters 1815 running metres from 194 runs (8 dummy half runs), 221 kick return metres, 641 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Roosters 33 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Roosters 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Roosters 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Roosters 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Roosters 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 632 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Roosters 504 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 357 made, 27 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Roosters 365 made, 26 missed, 18 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1450, Roosters 1381 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Roosters 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Roosters 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Roosters 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and James Tedesco James Tedesco famously back flipped on a deal to join the Canberra Raiders in 2015 - but he subsequently did switch from the Tigers to the Roosters. Recently, he was not only voted the No. 1 fullback in the game in the annual NRL players' poll, he was voted the No. 1 player. He can pretty much do it all. He ranks second in the NRL for line break assists and tackle breaks, third for running metres and kick return metres, and fourth for try assists. In 2020, he's scored five tries and produced nine line breaks, 12 try assists, 103 tackle breaks and 232 running metres per game. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad had an unexpected break out season with Canberra last year - and he's again hitting peak form in 2020. This season he's scored seven tries and posted three line breaks, three try assists, 52 tackle breaks and 182 running metres per game. CNK is developing his ball playing, but he's up there with the best with his running game. Clearly, however, Teddy takes this "skin".
Jarrod Croker and Joseph Manu The 2020 players' poll saw six of the Roosters' back line voted as the best in the NRL in their positions. Centre Joseph Manu was one of them. The Roosters love to attack down the left edge, but the right edge centre-wing partnership of Manu and Brett Morris has produced an impressive 18 tries. So far in 2020, Manu has six tries, six line breaks, 62 tackle breaks, four try assists and an average 101 running metres gained. Jarrod Croker had an unhappy game against the Bulldogs, and he'll be looking to bounce back this week - against a tough opponent. Croker has produced three tries, five line breaks, 17 tackle breaks, five try assists and averaged 69 running metres. His goal kicking has been on point this year (87 per cent success rate), delivering the Raiders the best conversion success rate in the NRL. The Raiders' milestone man notched up another last weekend - becoming the fifth highest point scorer in NRL history. Both Croker and Manu have 10 try causes to their name this season, but Croker has the better tackle efficiency rate (86 per cent for Croker, 82 per cent Manu).
Jack Wighton and Luke Keary Luke Keary has played every game of 2020 - bar last week's win over the Broncos, due to a rib injury. He's an elite five eighth, with two Test matches for the Kangaroos to his name. In 2020, Keary's bagged six tries and delivered 13 try assists, seven line break assists and 11 forced line drop outs. Jack Wighton has been the Raiders' man of the match in the past two weeks, scoring two tries in each game. His double against the Bulldogs last week turned the game on its head. He's now got eight tries, six try assists and six line break assists for the year. He is very solid in defence - with an 89 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Keary is not too far behind in that department (85 per cent tackle efficiency). When these players faced each other in the 2019 Grand Final, Jack Wighton came away with the Clive Churchill Medal, the best player on the ground. Hopefully, Wighton can outpoint Keary again on Saturday.
George Williams and Kyle Flanagan English recruit George Williams has been one of the Green Machine's best in 2020. He has four tries, 11 try assists, 10 forced line drop outs, and an average 247 kicking metres to his name. His kicks to the try line have been a real weapon. Roosters' youngster Kyle Flanagan was dropped after the Round 12 clash with the Titans - but he's been back in the No. 7 jersey for the past two weeks. It is no easy task taking over from the likes of Cooper Cronk. But he's still the NRL's top point scorer and goal kicker this season. He's also produced four tries, nine try assists, four forced line drop outs, and an average 251 kicking metres per game. Flanagan's defence has been improving, but he still ranks in the top five players in the NRL for ineffective tackles and has seven try causes. Prince George wins this match-up for mine.
Josh Papalii and Siosiua Taukeiaho Josh Papalii has started off the bench in the past couple of weeks, with Ricky Stuart looking to lighten his load against lower ranked teams. But it doesn't really matter whether he starts or comes off the bench. He ran for over 200 metres with the ball last weekend. In 2020, he's averaged 15 hit ups for 159 running metres and 33 tackles per match. He's also scored four tries and produced 14 offloads and 28 tackle breaks. He hardly ever misses his mark in defence (96 per cent tackle efficiency). Siosiua Taukeiaho has been the Roosters' best prop in 2020. He's averaged 15 hit ups for 170 running metres and 30 tackles per match. He's scored one try and posted 15 offloads, 20 tackle breaks and a 92 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Those are good numbers, but Papa is the best in the business in my view.
Our tip: The Roosters are hot favourites in this match. Virtually all the numbers point to a Roosters victory. However, the Roosters were also favourites when the teams met earlier this year - and the Raiders got the job done.
In defence, the Raiders will need to try and force the Roosters into error, with good line speed and work in the rucks. Canberra can't afford to give away as many set restarts as they did against the Dogs. The Raiders' kickers will need to keep the Roosters at their own end - and keep the ball out of the hands of the Roosters' danger men at the back.
The Raiders are missing some key forwards, but the likes of Papalii, Lui and Tapine - and the young players coming in - have really stepped up. They have the ability to get on top up front. A slow start and lots of errors will be fatal. It is tough to come back against the Roosters, and they're very hard to stop once they have momentum.
But the Raiders have the capability to win. I think they can do it. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "We've still got improvement. I don't know if we're good enough to beat the Roosters. You've only got to have a look at their last game. But there's still a long way to go in this competition. This game isn't the be all and end all to this season, I can assure you."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
19. Matt Timoko
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Siliva Havili
10. Ryan Sutton
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Sam Williams
21. Semi Valemei
Injury/Suspension
Curtis Scott, Leg (Rd 18-19)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 18-19)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Sia Soliola, Facial fracture (TBA)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Josh Morris
4. Joseph Manu
5. Brett Morris
6. Luke Keary
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
14. Freddy Lussick
10. Siosiua Taukeiaho
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Sitili Tupouniua
13. Isaac Liu
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Nat Butcher
17. Sonny Bill Williams
18. Angus Crichton
19. Mitchell Aubusson
21. Drew Hutchison
Officials
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Touch judges: Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, Dave Munro
Video referees: Ashely Klein, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersRoosters
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders[/color][/size][/b]
Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Saturday 5 September 7:35pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 4 Max 17
The Canberra Raiders won the first re-match of the 2019 Grand Final, when the Green Machine defeated the Sydney Roosters at the Sydney Cricket Ground in Round 10. Can they do it again in the second, in Round 17 at Canberra Stadium?
Last round: 2020 Round 16. Canberra Raiders 34 - Canterbury Bulldogs 20. It was a slow start for the Canberra Raiders in the clash with the last placed Bulldogs. The Raiders were flat for a good part of the first half and they were out-enthused by Canterbury. The Bulldogs built momentum and controlled the territory - and deservedly led at half time. A sin binning for Tom Starling early in the second half seemed to stir the Raiders into action. Jack Wighton scored a double with Starling in the bin - giving the Raiders the lead. And suddenly, the wind was taken out of the Bulldogs' sails.
More on Round 16: As I saw it
Team news: Josh Papalii and Siliva Havili return to the Raiders starting line up, with Dunamis Lui and Tom Starling dropping back to the bench. Corey Harawira-Naera has been included on the bench in place of Matt Timoko. Curtis Scott (lower leg) was ruled out by the Raiders on Friday. He has been cleared of a fracture, but he is experiencing soreness after the plate in his leg copped a knock. Matt Timoko is on standby.
Sonny Bill Williams will make his second, much hyped, return to the NRL for the Roosters in this match, named on the bench. When he enters the fray, he's expecting to play at lock. Luke Keary (ribs) returns from injury at five eighth, replacing Drew Hutchison. Boyd Cordner moves back into his regular place in the second row, with Nat Butcher dropping back to the bench. Pasa Faamausili goes back to the reserves. Second rower Angus Crichton (knee) and Mitch Aubusson have also been included on the extended bench - and Trent Robinson says both are close to a return. Hooker Jake Friend suffered concussion in the match against the Broncos, but has been named in the starting team.
Late changes: The Raiders have replaced the injured Curtis Scott at centre with Matt Timoko. Kai O’Donnell dropped out of the Canberra squad on Friday night, leaving Sam Williams and Semi Valemei the extended bench.
The Roosters omitted hooker Jake Friend (concussion) on Friday night and have replaced him with Freddy Lussick in the starting team. Angus Crichton has joined the bench. Poasa Faamausili has dropped out of the squad, while Mitch Aubusson and Drew Hutchison remain on the extended bench.
History: The Raiders have won 29 of 65 matches against the Sydney Roosters - and four of the past 10 games. The Roosters won all three games played between the clubs in 2019, including the Grand Final. They won 30-24 at Lang Park during Magic Round last year, after going to a 30-6 lead early in the second half. The Raiders' subsequent comeback fell short. Then in Round 21, Canberra suffered a narrow, 22-18, loss to the Roosters at Canberra Stadium - with the Raiders' comeback again just falling short. The Raiders lost 14-8 in the Grand Final. It was a game marred by officiating controversy, with the Green Machine being the better team for much of the contest. In Round 10 this year, the Raiders won the Grand Final re-match, 24-20, in a courageous performance. The Roosters have won just seven of 21 games at Canberra Stadium.
2020 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2019 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2018 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Form: Raiders: WLWWW
Roosters: WWLWW
The Roosters had a big, 58-12, win over the Broncos in their last outing, while they also have recent wins over the Tigers (38-16), Dragons (24-16) and Titans (18-12). Their only recent loss was to the Storm (24-6) in Round 14. The Raiders are on a three game winning streak - against bottom four teams. They have also had only one recent loss, to the Panthers (28-12) in Round 13.
Betting: The Roosters are $1.42 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.85. The Raiders have 6.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders odds have drifted since opening.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fourth (Roosters) and fifth (Raiders) on the ladder.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has improved - having scored six tries in each of their past three games. They now rank equal seventh for tries scored (58), with the Knights.
The Roosters, however, are the No. 1 attacking team in the league. They've averaged almost five tries per game, and have scored nearly 20 more tries than the Green Machine. They posted 10 against the Broncos just last weekend. They rank first for line breaks (Raiders ninth) and kick return metres (Raiders 12th), second for tackle breaks (Raiders fifth), third for post contact metres (Raiders 10th), and fourth for running metres (Raiders 9th).
The downside of the Roosters' more expansive play is that they rank third in the league for errors and their completion rate is in the bottom four teams. Unfortunately, the Raiders have been more conservative and still rank fifth for errors. The Roosters are probably not as expansive as you might imagine, however. They rank eighth for general play passes (Raiders 15th) and fifth for one pass hit ups (Raiders third). However, the Roosters very actively engage the line and run supports - and their play makers deliver a heap of try assists and line break assists.
The Roosters also have a better defensive record than the Raiders - but it's much closer in this department. The Roosters rank fourth in the NRL for the fewest points and tries conceded, the Raiders fourth. Only the Titans have given up more ineffective tackles than the Roosters (Raiders rank 14th). However, the Raiders miss more tackles, and Canberra's effective tackle rate is just ahead of the Roosters.
The Raiders rank equal third for kicking metres gained, the Roosters 14th. But given the running metres gained by the Roosters, they don't have to kick long as often.
Bluntly, there are not many departments where the Roosters don't have a statistical advantage.
2020 Season record: Raiders 11 and 5 (5th, +89)
Roosters 11 and 5 (4th, +224)
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th on tries scored
Roosters 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 1st on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Roosters 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Roosters 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Roosters 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1679 running metres from 187 runs (14 dummy half runs), 164 kick return metres, 558 post contact metres per match
Roosters 1815 running metres from 194 runs (8 dummy half runs), 221 kick return metres, 641 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Roosters 33 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Roosters 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Roosters 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Roosters 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Roosters 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 632 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Roosters 504 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 357 made, 27 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Roosters 365 made, 26 missed, 18 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1450, Roosters 1381 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Roosters 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Roosters 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Roosters 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Roosters 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and James Tedesco James Tedesco famously back flipped on a deal to join the Canberra Raiders in 2015 - but he subsequently did switch from the Tigers to the Roosters. Recently, he was not only voted the No. 1 fullback in the game in the annual NRL players' poll, he was voted the No. 1 player. He can pretty much do it all. He ranks second in the NRL for line break assists and tackle breaks, third for running metres and kick return metres, and fourth for try assists. In 2020, he's scored five tries and produced nine line breaks, 12 try assists, 103 tackle breaks and 232 running metres per game. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad had an unexpected break out season with Canberra last year - and he's again hitting peak form in 2020. This season he's scored seven tries and posted three line breaks, three try assists, 52 tackle breaks and 182 running metres per game. CNK is developing his ball playing, but he's up there with the best with his running game. Clearly, however, Teddy takes this "skin".
Jarrod Croker and Joseph Manu The 2020 players' poll saw six of the Roosters' back line voted as the best in the NRL in their positions. Centre Joseph Manu was one of them. The Roosters love to attack down the left edge, but the right edge centre-wing partnership of Manu and Brett Morris has produced an impressive 18 tries. So far in 2020, Manu has six tries, six line breaks, 62 tackle breaks, four try assists and an average 101 running metres gained. Jarrod Croker had an unhappy game against the Bulldogs, and he'll be looking to bounce back this week - against a tough opponent. Croker has produced three tries, five line breaks, 17 tackle breaks, five try assists and averaged 69 running metres. His goal kicking has been on point this year (87 per cent success rate), delivering the Raiders the best conversion success rate in the NRL. The Raiders' milestone man notched up another last weekend - becoming the fifth highest point scorer in NRL history. Both Croker and Manu have 10 try causes to their name this season, but Croker has the better tackle efficiency rate (86 per cent for Croker, 82 per cent Manu).
Jack Wighton and Luke Keary Luke Keary has played every game of 2020 - bar last week's win over the Broncos, due to a rib injury. He's an elite five eighth, with two Test matches for the Kangaroos to his name. In 2020, Keary's bagged six tries and delivered 13 try assists, seven line break assists and 11 forced line drop outs. Jack Wighton has been the Raiders' man of the match in the past two weeks, scoring two tries in each game. His double against the Bulldogs last week turned the game on its head. He's now got eight tries, six try assists and six line break assists for the year. He is very solid in defence - with an 89 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Keary is not too far behind in that department (85 per cent tackle efficiency). When these players faced each other in the 2019 Grand Final, Jack Wighton came away with the Clive Churchill Medal, the best player on the ground. Hopefully, Wighton can outpoint Keary again on Saturday.
George Williams and Kyle Flanagan English recruit George Williams has been one of the Green Machine's best in 2020. He has four tries, 11 try assists, 10 forced line drop outs, and an average 247 kicking metres to his name. His kicks to the try line have been a real weapon. Roosters' youngster Kyle Flanagan was dropped after the Round 12 clash with the Titans - but he's been back in the No. 7 jersey for the past two weeks. It is no easy task taking over from the likes of Cooper Cronk. But he's still the NRL's top point scorer and goal kicker this season. He's also produced four tries, nine try assists, four forced line drop outs, and an average 251 kicking metres per game. Flanagan's defence has been improving, but he still ranks in the top five players in the NRL for ineffective tackles and has seven try causes. Prince George wins this match-up for mine.
Josh Papalii and Siosiua Taukeiaho Josh Papalii has started off the bench in the past couple of weeks, with Ricky Stuart looking to lighten his load against lower ranked teams. But it doesn't really matter whether he starts or comes off the bench. He ran for over 200 metres with the ball last weekend. In 2020, he's averaged 15 hit ups for 159 running metres and 33 tackles per match. He's also scored four tries and produced 14 offloads and 28 tackle breaks. He hardly ever misses his mark in defence (96 per cent tackle efficiency). Siosiua Taukeiaho has been the Roosters' best prop in 2020. He's averaged 15 hit ups for 170 running metres and 30 tackles per match. He's scored one try and posted 15 offloads, 20 tackle breaks and a 92 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Those are good numbers, but Papa is the best in the business in my view.
Our tip: The Roosters are hot favourites in this match. Virtually all the numbers point to a Roosters victory. However, the Roosters were also favourites when the teams met earlier this year - and the Raiders got the job done.
In defence, the Raiders will need to try and force the Roosters into error, with good line speed and work in the rucks. Canberra can't afford to give away as many set restarts as they did against the Dogs. The Raiders' kickers will need to keep the Roosters at their own end - and keep the ball out of the hands of the Roosters' danger men at the back.
The Raiders are missing some key forwards, but the likes of Papalii, Lui and Tapine - and the young players coming in - have really stepped up. They have the ability to get on top up front. A slow start and lots of errors will be fatal. It is tough to come back against the Roosters, and they're very hard to stop once they have momentum.
But the Raiders have the capability to win. I think they can do it. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "We've still got improvement. I don't know if we're good enough to beat the Roosters. You've only got to have a look at their last game. But there's still a long way to go in this competition. This game isn't the be all and end all to this season, I can assure you."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
19. Matt Timoko
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Siliva Havili
10. Ryan Sutton
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Hudson Young
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Sam Williams
21. Semi Valemei
Injury/Suspension
Curtis Scott, Leg (Rd 18-19)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 18-19)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Sia Soliola, Facial fracture (TBA)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Josh Morris
4. Joseph Manu
5. Brett Morris
6. Luke Keary
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
14. Freddy Lussick
10. Siosiua Taukeiaho
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Sitili Tupouniua
13. Isaac Liu
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Nat Butcher
17. Sonny Bill Williams
18. Angus Crichton
19. Mitchell Aubusson
21. Drew Hutchison
Officials
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Touch judges: Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, Dave Munro
Video referees: Ashely Klein, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersRoosters
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders[/color][/size][/b]