Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Sunday August 30 6:30pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Sunny.
The chance of patchy fog in the early morning. Light winds becoming northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent. Min 1 Max 18The Canberra Raiders return home in Round 16 for a clash with the last placed Canterbury Bulldogs.
Last round: 2020 Round 15. Canberra Raiders 36 - Gold Coast Titans 16. The Canberra Raiders won well on the scoreboard and for a good part of the game, won well on the field. The Raiders had plenty of possession, and made plenty of ground. But at times there was too much lateral movement in attack. At times, the defence was not switched on - conceding far too many line breaks. The Titans scored first, but the Raiders scored four tries in the space of 20 minutes during the first half - with Jack Wighton unleashing with an impressive double. And the Raiders' control of the match was never really threatened in the second half.
More on Round 15: As I saw it
Team news: Outside back Matt Timoko will make his NRL debut, coming in on the bench for Corey Harawira-Naera who is not available. A condition of Harawira-Naera's recent contractual release from Canterbury prevents him from turning out against Bulldogs. Josh Papalii was issued with a low grade high tackle charge by the match review committee, but he has only been fined, and has been named at starting prop.
The Bulldogs have made significant changes. English forward Luke Thompson, half Jack Cogger, winger Reimis Smith, centre Tim Lafai have all been dropped from the top 17 to the extended bench. Lachlan Lewis returns at halfback, with Marcelo Montoya named at centre and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak on the wing. Dylan Napa comes back into the team at prop, after a one week suspension, with Aiden Tolman moving to lock. Josh Jackson moves to the second row, while Matt Doorey has been dropped to the bench. Renouf To'omaga and Dean Britt are interchange inclusions. Kerrod Holland (ribs) is reportedly in doubt, with Reimis Smith his cover.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Harley Smith-Shields and Matt Frawley from their squad on Saturday night, leaving Sam Williams and Kai O'Donnell on the extended bench. The Bulldogs cut Luke Thompson and Tim Lafai from their squad.
Milestone: Jarrod Croker is four points away from becoming the fifth highest point scorer in the NRL of all time.
History: The Raiders have won 31 and lost 39 matches against the Canterbury Bulldogs. That’s just a 44 per cent win rate. However, the record has been more favourable recently, with Canberra winning six of the past 10 clashes - and the last three in a row. The Raiders have won 14 of the 24 games played between the two clubs at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders won both matches against the Bulldogs played in 2018. The Raiders took the Round 5 clash at Canberra Stadium, 26-10 - and then produced one of the most extraordinary comebacks in Green Machine history in Round 17 at Belmore, winning 32-28. The clubs met only once in 2019, with the Raiders running out narrow 12-10 winners at Stadium Australia.
Form: Raiders: WWLWW
Bulldogs: WLLLL
The Bulldogs are on a four game losing streak, falling to the Eels (18-16), Storm (41-10), Tigers (29-28) and, most recently, the Warriors (20-14). In the 11 games since Round 4, they have only won once - an 18-12 victory over the Knights. But there have been some close recent losses to better teams. The Raiders have won four of the past five games, last losing to the ladder leading Panthers (28-12) in Round 13. They have had recent wins over the Roosters (24-20), Rabbitohs (18-12), Cowboys (14-12) and Broncos (36-8). As mentioned, they defeated the Titans in their most recent outing.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.10 favourites, while the Bulldogs are paying $7.00. The Bulldogs have a very big 16.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and 16th (Bulldogs) on the ladder.
The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has been poor, but it is improving - having scored 36 points and six tries against both the Broncos and Titans in the past two weeks. The Green Machine still ranks fifth in the NRL for the fewest points conceded (15 per game). But they now rank equal fifth, with the Knights, for tries conceded (38 in total). The Raiders' defensive record is still good, but they have slowly drifted down the rankings over the year. The Bulldogs have the worst attack in the league, with just 35 tries posted (Raiders 52), and are bottom four in defence. But despite being last on the ladder, they do have a better points differential than both the Broncos and the Titans.
The Bulldogs rank in the bottom four teams for running metres, post contact metres and kicking metres - but the Raiders are also outside the top eight teams for running the ball. The Bulldogs rank last for tackle breaks (Raiders sixth) and line breaks (Raiders ninth). Neither team throws the ball around a lot and don't produce a lot of offloads. Both like a one pass hit up and a dummy half run.
The Raiders are sometimes forced into a long kicking game, due to their inability to make metres with the ball in hand - but it is also a deliberate strategy to kick long and to the corners. The Bulldogs employ similar tactics. The Bulldogs rank second in the NRL for long kicks, the Raiders third. The Raiders rank third for total kicking metres, the Bulldogs fourth.
No team concedes more running metres than the Bulldogs (Raiders ninth) and they rank fifth for most line breaks conceded (Raiders 10th). The Bulldogs also rank fourth for missed tackles (Raiders seventh) and ineffective tackles (Raiders 13th). That adds up to the Bulldogs having the third worst effective tackle efficiency rate, while the Raiders are in the top six.
Virtually the only area where the Bulldogs have an advantage over the Raiders is discipline, with the Green Machine conceding more penalties and set restarts than Canterbury.
2020 Season record: Raiders 10 and 5 (5th, +75)
Bulldogs 2 and 13 (16th, -160)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on tries scored
Bulldogs 14 points and 2 tries scored per match, ranked 16th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Bulldogs 24 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 13th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Bulldogs 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Bulldogs 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1672 running metres from 188 runs (14 dummy half runs), 157 kick return metres, 559 post contact metres per match
Bulldogs 1576 running metres from 186 runs (11 dummy half runs), 149 kick return metres, 510 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Bulldogs 19 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Bulldogs 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Bulldogs 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Bulldogs 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Bulldogs 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 636 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Bulldogs 631 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 358 made, 28 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Bulldogs 352 made, 32 missed, 17 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1461, Bulldogs 1622 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Bulldogs 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Bulldogs 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Bulldogs 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Bulldogs 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Bulldogs 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Nick Cotric and Nick Meaney Nick Meaney shifted back to the wing last week, having played the previous five rounds at fullback. He's scored five tries in 13 appearances in 2020 - including a great four pointer last weekend against the Warriors. He's also posted one try assist, nine line breaks and 31 tackle breaks - and averaged 134 running metres. Nick Cotric's form has been a little bit up and down, after a strong start to the season. But he's scored a double in each of the past two matches. He left the field early in the clash with the Titans last weekend (groin), but hopefully that was more a precaution - and that he'll be fit for this match. He's now scored 10 tries for the season and averaged 115 running metres. He's also produced two try assists and 11 line breaks. He ranks fourth in the NRL for tackle breaks, behind David Nofoaluma, James Tedesco and Kalyn Ponga. This "skin" goes to Cotric.
Jack Wighton and Kieran Foran Kieran Foran has had a tough couple of years with injury, missing a good part of the past two seasons with with foot and ankle injuries. After suffering a shoulder injury in a Kiwis Test match last year, he was expected to miss much of 2020 as well - but he was able to return in Round 4 of a COVID interrupted season. He's been in pretty good form. In 12 appearances this year, he's scored three tries and produced 10 try assists and six line break assists. He's also averaged 76 running metres, 178 kicking metres and forced four line drop outs. Jack Wighton was back to his best in last weekend's match against the Titans, scoring two tries. The first of them was just about the perfect runaround, with Wighton touching the ball three times. He's now got six tries, six try assists and six line break assists for the year. He's also averaged 102 running metres and 285 kicking metres. He is very solid in defence - with an 89 per cent tackle efficiency rate. However Foran is no slouch there either (87 per cent tackle efficiency). It should be a good match up, but I expect Wighton will come out on top.
Josh Papalii and Dylan Napa Dylan Napa has played every match but last week, suspended for dangerous contact in a tackle on Tigers forward Sam McIntyre. So far in 2020, the Maroons representative has averaged 11 hit ups for 117 metres, 37 post contact metres and 30 tackles per match. He's also posted eight tackle breaks, and five offloads, but is yet to cross the white stripe. Last week, Josh Papalii suggested that he - and a couple of the regular starting middles - start off the bench against the Titans. And that's exactly what coach Ricky Stuart did. It's been a tough six weeks for the Raiders' pack, given the injuries to Sia Soliola, Corey Horsburgh and Emre Guler - and Stuart was no doubt aiming to lighten the load for the likes of Papalii. But it doesn't really matter whether starts or comes off the bench. He's the colossus of the Raiders' pack. His character and contribution was summed up by his chase and ankle tap on runaway half Jamal Fogarty. The best try saver you'll ever see from a prop. In 2020, he's averaged 14 hit ups for 154 running metres, 59 post contact metres and 33 tackles per match. He's also scored four tries, delivered 13 offloads and 26 tackle breaks. He hardly ever misses his mark in defence (96 per cent tackle efficiency). Napa is a good prop, he's no big Papa.
Hudson Young and Aiden Tolman Aiden Tolman, aged 31, has been one of the Bulldogs' best players this year. He's averaged 15 hit ups for 136 running metres and 40 tackles per game. He's also posted two tries, 10 tackle breaks and three offloads. His tackle efficiency sits at just over 94 per cent. He plays big minutes. Hudson Young has been a good performer since re-joining the team in Round 6 after a long suspension. He played five games on the edge, before moving back into the middle in Round 12, with John Bateman's return from shoulder surgery. He has spent the past couple of games starting on the bench - but returns at starting lock this week. He's a good defender, averaging 31 tackles and posting a 92 tackle efficiency rate. He's also averaged 74 running metres per game - and has one try, one line break and 11 tackle breaks to his name. He got his first four pointer of the season last weekend, running from deep onto a Starling crash ball. The 22 year old doesn't have the experience of Tolman but will no doubt enjoy the challenge on Sunday.
Our tip: For the third week in a row, the Raiders are deserved warm favourites. But these are danger games. The Raiders are expected to win, and they need to win if they're to have a shot at a top four finish. They face the Roosters in Round 17, in a match that will probably decide which of the teams finish in fourth. But the Raiders can't have their eyes on that game. They can't forget that the Bulldogs have pushed some good teams in recent weeks. The Raiders lost their way a little last weekend, despite winning big on the scoreboard. There were some mistakes in defence - while the attack was too impatient, too lateral at times. Coach Stuart will no doubt spend this week fixing that. The Green Machine should be too good. Raiders by 13+.
What they're saying:
Coach Ricky Stuart on Josh Papalii: "Papa will go down as one of our greatest ever players when he retires. He is one of the boys' favourites. They love playing with him. He's got a wonderful motor. He's a very skillful guy for his size. And I don't say that lightly. But he will go down as one of those greats of this club."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Siliva Havili
10. Dunamis Lui
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Hudson Young
14. Tom Starling
15. Joseph Tapine
16. Ryan Sutton
17. Matt Timoko
18. Sam Williams
20. Kai O'Donnell
Injury/Suspension
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 17-19)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Sia Soliola, Facial fracture (Indefinite, until at least Rd 20, possibly season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Will Hopoate
2. Nick Meaney
3. Marcelo Montoya
4. Kerrod Holland
5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6. Kieran Foran
7. Lachlan Lewis
8. Ofahiki Ogden
9. Jeremy Marshall-King
10. Dylan Napa
11. Josh Jackson
12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
13. Aiden Tolman
14. Sione Katoa
15. Renouf To'omaga
16. Dean Britt
17. Matt Doorey
20. Jack Cogger
21. Reimis Smith
Officials
Referee: Chris Butler
Touch judges: Jon Stone, Liam Kennedy
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersBulldogs
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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