Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday July 25 7:35pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning frost. Shower or two. Becoming cloudy. Areas of morning frost. Patchy fog in the early morning. High (70 per cent) chance of showers from the late afternoon or evening. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 70 per cent. Possible rainfall: 3 to 6 mm Min -1 Max 15
In Round 11, the Canberra Raiders meet the South Sydney at Canberra Stadium, the scene of the Green Machine's history making 2019 Preliminary Final victory over the Rabbitohs.
Last round: 2020 Round 10. Canberra Raiders 24 - Sydney Roosters 20. It will go down in Raiders' history as one of their most courageous victories. It was a rematch between the Grand Final teams of 2019. The Roosters were aiming for their 11th straight win at the Sydney Cricket Ground. The Raiders were missing six of their Grand Final team due to long term injury, their main play maker out for the season. The horrible injury toll had left the Green Machine with a squad of just 18 fit players who have any NRL experience. The Raiders were on a five day turnaround. It was, simply, backs to the wall. But fuelled by spirit, heart and pride in the famous green jersey, the Raiders produced a gritty victory against the premiership favourites.
More on Round 10: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders still have a very long injury list, with Michael Oldfield (hamstring) joining the ranks of the players on the sideline after he failed to return for the second half of the match against the Roosters. John Bateman (shoulder) makes a long awaited return to the squad, but is only named on the extended bench at this stage. Harley Smith-Shields has been named to make his debut on the bench. Jordan Rapana will cover Michael Oldfield at centre, with Semi Valemei named on the wing. Kai O'Donnell has been named at starting lock, with Joe Tapine on the bench.
Rabbitohs centre James Roberts ruptured a pectoral in his team's loss to the Knights and will be out for 12 weeks. In addition, Ethan Lowe is out after he suffered a repeat of a neck injury. The Rabbitohs were already missing Liam Knight (ankle), Braidon Burns (knee) and Tom Amone (knee) due to injury, while Latrell Mitchell has been suspended until Round 12. Campbell Graham (facial fracture) returns at centre, place of James Roberts. Bailey Sironen has been included in the starting side with Jack Johns coming in on the bench. Former Raiders Mark Nicolls and Patrick Mago have been named for South Sydney on the interchange list.
Late changes: John Bateman and Matt Frawley dropped out of the Raiders' squad on Friday night, while the Rabbitohs omitted Kurt Dillon and Troy Dargan. Keaon Koloamatangi has been included on the bench, with Patrick Mago dropping to the reserves list.
History: Canberra has won 33 of 57 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Raiders have won six of the past 10 matches - and have also won three of the past five. The Raiders lost the first match between the clubs in 2018, comprehensively beaten 42-22 at Gosford in Round 7. But in the return clash in Round 24 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders produced one of their best performances of the 2018 season, defeating the Rabbitohs 24-12. Canberra lost the Round 10 clash at Canberra Stadium in Round 10 of 2019, 16-12 - but prevailed in the epic Preliminary Final, qualifying for the Grand Final with a 16-10 victory at the same ground. Who will ever forget the storming, match-winning try from Josh Papalii? The Raiders have won 10 of the 16 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.
2019 Preliminary Final Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
2019 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
2018 Round 7 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
2018 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Form: Raiders: LLWLW
Rabbitohs: WLWWL
The Rabbitohs suffered a narrow two point loss to the Knights in their last outing at Western Sydney Stadium (20-18), a late comeback falling short. They have posted recent wins over the Warriors (40-12), Bulldogs (26-10) and Tigers (18-10) - but also lost to the Panthers, 20-12, a month ago. The Raiders have won just twice in their past five games - against the Dragons (22-16) in Round 8, before taking down the Roosters (24-20) last week.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.52 favourites, while the Rabbitohs are paying $2.55. The Rabbitohs have 5.5 points start in the line betting. The Rabbitohs odds shortened a little late in the week.
Stat attack: This is a battle between sixth (Raiders) and eighth (Rabbitohs) on the ladder. The Raiders' attack has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, but their record in 2020 still lags, ranking 10th in the NRL. The Rabbitohs have only scored one more try than the Raiders this season. And there's not a whole lot of difference between the two teams on any of the attacking statistics.
The Rabbitohs engage the line and throw the ball around more than the Raiders, and have averaged more kick return metres and tackle breaks. The Raiders rank second, behind the Broncos, for the fewest general play passes (Rabbitohs 11th) and third for one pass hit ups (Rabbitohs ninth). No team has posted fewer offloads than the Raiders, but the Rabbitohs have just one more. Both teams are in the top four for dummy half runs (Raiders third, Rabbitohs fourth). The Rabbitohs rank first in the league for intercepts (eight), so that's something the Green Machine will need to watch. Alex Johnston has three.
The teams have an almost identical error count (Raiders 115, Rabbitohs 114), but the Raiders have the better completion rate. Both teams are in the top four for penalties conceded (Rabbitohs second, Raiders fourth). However no team has conceded fewer set restarts than the Rabbitohs (2.8 per game, Raiders 4.4), meaning they have been the more disciplined of the two teams.
The Raiders' defensive record is much better than their attacking record. However, it has been slipping. They now have the equal fourth best defence in the league, with the Panthers, on tries conceded (Rabbitohs rank eighth). The Raiders have cut their missed tackles in the last couple of weeks, but they still rank fourth in the NRL on that score (Rabbitohs 12th). However, the Raiders have the better effective tackle rate.
Canberra adopted a strategy of kicking often and long, kicking to the corners, in 2019. They rank second in the NRL for total kicking metres this year. In contrast, the Rabbitohs rank 11th for kicking metres.
2020 Season record: Raiders 6 and 4 (6th, +35)
Rabbitohs 5 and 5 (8th, +32)
Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on tries scored
Rabbitohs 21 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 1st on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 4th on tries conceded
Rabbitohs 17 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 8th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Rabbitohs 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Rabbitohs 75 per cent
Running: Raiders 1675 running metres from 183 runs (14 dummy half runs), 159 kick return metres, 553 post contact metres per match
Rabbitohs 1686 running metres from 183 runs (13 dummy half runs), 176 kick return metres, 563 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Rabbitohs 34 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 3 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Rabbitohs 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Rabbitohs 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 614 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Rabbitohs 527 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 356 made, 33 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Rabbitohs 360 made, 27 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1483, Rabbitohs 1434 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Rabbitohs 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Rabbitohs 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Rabbitohs 6 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Key match-ups:
George Williams and Adam Reynolds English half George Williams has performed strongly in his first season in the NRL. He ranks equal fifth in the NRL for try assists (eight), courtesy of a pin point short kicking game in the red zone. He's also forced six line drop outs. He scored a try against the Roosters, showing off his good running and stepping - and bringing his tally for the year to two. With the loss of Josh Hodgson for the season, Williams had more ball in his hands in the Grand Final rematch and he really stepped up to the challenge. This week he faces Rabbitohs captain and Wayne Bennett favourite, Adam Reynolds. Williams doesn't appear to be one of Wayne's favourites, after being repeatedly overlooked on the Great Britain Lions tour at the end of last year. He'll have a point to prove. Reynolds, however, is a tough opponent. In 2020, he has two tries, three try assists, eight forced line drop outs. He ranks fourth in the NRL for average kicking metres (398 per game).
Tom Starling and Damien Cook Siliva Havilii and Tom Starling filled in admirably for Josh Hodgson against the Roosters. Havili started, absorbing the heavy early traffic, before Starling was injected at dummy half for just under 50 minutes. Both play a more direct style than Hodgson, and gave plenty of good, quick service to the Raiders' halves. Starling is small in stature, but was nippy around the rucks and not afraid to take on the big men in defence. He made a big splash in his first game of the season, posting a try assist and line break assist. The Raiders' hooking duo will have their hands full against Damien Cook. Cook ranked fourth in the recent 2020 Players' Poll - and was overtaken this year by Api Koroisau and rookie Harry Grant. But he's still a very dangerous player out of dummy half. He has three tries, two try assists, two line break assists, three forced line drop outs and an average of 100 running metres per game.
Joe Tapine and Cameron Murray Joe Tapine has really lifted his performances in recent weeks, with the Raiders forward pack decimated by injury. In the past two matches, Kai O'Donnell has actually started the match, with Tapine coming off the bench. That's been formalised this week, but that is no indication of the value of Tapine to the side. He plays the major minutes and has been immense. Against the Roosters, he made 167 metres from 19 runs, produced a try assist and a line break assist, threw two offloads and made 23 tackles for a 96 per cent tackle efficiency rate. The Kiwi international lines up against Sydney media favourite, Cameron Murray, this week. In 2019, he played three Origins for the Blues and made his Kangaroos debut, playing one Test.
Murray's statistics this season are not too different to Tapine. Both have scored a try. Murray has 106 average running metres, Tapine 103. Tapine has 18 tackle breaks compared with 10 for Murray - and that's reflected in the post contact metres of the two (Tapine 371, Murray 360). Murray has posted 13 offloads, Tapine 12. Murray has the better effective tackle rate (92.4 per cent, compared with 89.3 per cent for Tapine). That's pretty much level pegging.
Our tip: The numbers suggest that the Raiders should have the edge, but this will by no means be an easy contest. Last week, the Rabbitohs scored three tries in the space of seven minutes, to seriously challenge the Knights late in the match. They looked to be outplayed for much of the game, but that underlines how they can be very dangerous in attack. The Raiders are still suffering from a major injury crisis - and may well suffer a bit of a let down after the emotional Grand Final re-match last week. But if the Green Machine shows the same courage and intensity as they showed in the clash with the Roosters, Canberra should be too good. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Elliott Whitehead: "The next two games are probably the ones that are going to make or break our season so we need some wins. Coming off that win against the Roosters is going to be a big confidence boost. We've got a lot of injuries but we showed the depth in the squad is capable of beating any team. The media were saying that we were done for but we believed in the group we have here that we could go up to Sydney and beat the Roosters and we proved that."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Jordan Rapana
5. Semi Valemei
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papali'i
9. Siliva Havili
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Kai O'Donnell
14. Tom Starling
15. Joe Tapine
16. Ryan Sutton
17. Harley Smith-Shields
18. Sam Williams
19. Darby Medlyn
Injury/Suspension
Curtis Scott, Infected arm (Rd 12-13)
Michael Oldfield, Hamstring (Rd 13-14)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 17-19)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Sia Soliola, Palate (Indefinite, until at least Rd 20, possibly season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Alex Johnston
2. Corey Allan
3. Campbell Graham
4. Dane Gagai
5. Jaxson Paulo
6. Cody Walker
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Tevita Tatola
9. Damien Cook
10. Thomas Burgess
11. Jaydn Su'A
12. Bayley Sironen
13. Cameron Murray
14. Mark Nicholls
15. Hame Sele
17. Jack Johns
19. Keaon Koloamatangi
16. Patrick Mago
21. Steven Marsters
Officials
Referee: Ashely Klein
Touch judges: Dave Munro, Matt Noyen
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersSouths
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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