Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday July 11 7:35pm
Canberra Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning fog. Shower or two. Cloudy. High (70 per cent) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Patchy morning fog. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 70 per cent. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Min 2 Max 14
The Canberra Raiders are at their genuine home for a second week in a row, this time for a clash with the Melbourne Storm.
Last round: 2020 Round 8. Canberra Raiders 24 - St George Illawarra Dragons 16. The final scoreline wasn't as convincing as it could have been. The Raiders were well in control for the first 60 minutes of the match, keeping the Dragons scoreless. The men in scarlet were able to pile on three tries in the final quarter of the game - as they lifted the tempo and created some momentum. The likes of Matt Dufty and Ben Hunt created opportunity. Dufty... he's fast and has developed a good passing game. But the Canberra Raiders were ultimately able to withstand a late comeback from the Dragons and take the competition points.
More on Round 8: As I saw it
Team news: Sia Soliola (facial fracture) and Emre Guler (ankle) suffered serious injuries in the Raiders' match against the Dragons - and they join John Bateman (shoulder) and Corey Horsburgh (Lisfranc injury) on the sidelines. That leaves a very large hole in the Canberra Raiders' forward pack. The Raiders have included Dunamis Lui at starting prop, while Kai O'Donnell will make his NRL debut from the bench. Jordan Rapana (calf) also returns on the bench, with Curtis Scott dropping to the extended bench.
Cameron Munster (knee) has been named could possibly return after being named on the extended bench, along with Brenko Lee (hamstring). Cameron Smith has been named in the No. 9 jersey after a late switch to five eighth last week, with Ryley Jacks and Jahrome Hughes named in the halves.
Late changes: On Friday evening, the Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Darby Medlyn from their squad. The Storm ruled out Cameron Munster and Felise Kaufusi. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui comes in for Kaufusi in the second row, while former Raider Brenko Lee comes into the Storm's top 17 on the bench.
History: The Raiders have won only 14 of 45 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a 31 per cent win rate. Canberra has won four of the past 10 clashes between the clubs - and the last three games straight. That's a record winning streak for Canberra against Melbourne. The Raiders broke a five game losing streak with a memorable 22-18 victory in Bleak City in Round 22 in 2019. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points. It was the Storm's worst ever collapse. Canberra followed up with another stunning, 12-10, victory in Week 1 of the 2019 finals - with a John Bateman try in the final stages delivering a match winning lead. Then earlier this year, the Raiders produced a very convincing 22-6 victory over the Storm in Melbourne.
2020 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2019 Finals Week 1 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2019 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2019 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
The Storm will have no fear of playing at Canberra Stadium. They have won 14 of 21 games against the Raiders at the venue, including the past two matches. The Raiders last won against Melbourne in Canberra in 2016, a memorable 22-8 victory in Round 23.
Form: Raiders: LWLLW
Storm: WWLWW
In their last outing, the Storm produced an epic 27-25 golden point victory over the Roosters at Lang Park. They have other recent wins over the Warriors (50-6), Knights (26-12) and Rabbitohs (22-8). They have only lost to the Raiders (22-6) and the Panthers (21-14) in 2020. The Raiders have won just twice in their past five games - against the Tigers (14-6) and Dragons (22-16). They have suffered recent losses to the Eels (25-24), Sea Eagles (14-6) and Knights (34-18).
Betting: The Raiders started the week as favourites, but that has now flipped. The Storm is paying $1.74 and the Raiders, $2.10. Melbourne initially had 1.5 points start in the line betting, but now the Raiders have 1.5 points start.
Stat attack: This is a battle between third (Storm) and sixth (Raiders) on the ladder. In 2019, the Raiders aimed to play a style of football that is not too dissimilar to the Storm. But so far this year, the Storm has been just that little bit better than the Raiders in both attack and defence. The Raiders scored four tries in their last two matches and their attack showed some signs of "clicking" against the Dragons. But the Raiders have been very inconsistent in attack, even within games. Canberra ranks 10th in the NRL for tries scored, compared with seventh for Melbourne. The Raiders' defensive record is better than their attack, but it has been sliding. They have the fourth best defence in the league, equal with the Panthers and behind the Eels, Roosters and Storm.
There are a few 2020 statistics that might worry Raiders' coach Ricky Stuart. First, the Raiders rank third in the NRL for errors (97), just behind the Bulldogs (100) and Titans (98). They are only in the middle of the pack for set completions, and only the Broncos, Titans and Bulldogs average a lower share of possession. It means the Green Machine is required to do a lot of tackling (ranked fourth in the NRL, behind the Knights, Dragons and Titans) - and they're missing a lot of tackles (35 per game, second only to the Titans). The Raiders' effective tackle rates is partly saved because they concede so few offloads, but they still rank 11th in the NRL on that statistic. The Raiders also rank 10th for fewest running metres conceded (1508).
The defensive statistics that really count, of course, are points and tries conceded. Still, it is pretty hard to be the best defensive team in the competition - which is the Raiders' publicly stated aim - when that many tackles are being missed and that many metres are being conceded. And when a team is doing that much defence, it isn't surprising that they run out of gas in attack.
But here's some stats to be he happier about. George Williams now has eight try assists, behind just Shaun Johnson (12) and Luke Keary (eight). Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is now top three in the NRL for running metres, behind only Clint Gutherson and Jason Taumalolo. Nick Cotric ranks third for tackle breaks (47), equal with James Tedesco. And Jarrod Croker might have been having a mini try scoring "drought" before the Dragons match, but his goal kicking form is definitely back. His success rate is up at 89 per cent, which is better than any of the top, regular goal kickers in the competition.
2020 Season record: Raiders 5 and 3 (6th, +37)
Storm 6 and 2 (3rd, +67)
Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on tries scored
Storm 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th on tries conceded
Storm 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Storm 52 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Storm 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1700 running metres from 184 runs (14 dummy half runs), 172 kick return metres, 575 post contact metres per match
Storm 1707 running metres from 185 runs (15 dummy half runs), 180 kick return metres, 587 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Storm 25 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Storm 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Storm 3 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Storm 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Storm 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 618 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Storm 533 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 365 made, 35 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Storm 339 made, 28 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1508, Storm 1322 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Storm 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Storm 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Storm 6 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Storm 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Storm 3 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Ryan Papenhuyzen. Two fullbacks who had break out debut seasons with their clubs in 2019. Nicoll-Klokstad ended the 2019 season with 11 tries, fourth in the try scoring stakes amongst his fellow fullbacks. He finished second in the NRL, to James Tedesco, for total running metres and finished first for kick return metres. He was in the top 10 players for running metres per game, and first for kick return metres per game amongst the regular fullbacks. He made five in goal escapes, more than any player in the NRL. He was seventh in the NRL for total tackle breaks - and first at the Raiders. Papenhuzen also had a fine debut season with the Storm, making eight starting appearances in the No. 1 jersey.
Nicoll-Klokstad has found 2020 a little tougher than 2019, but he has really lifted in the past couple of weeks. He has three tries, one try assist, 22 tackle breaks, 210 average running metres and a 79 per cent tackle efficiency rate so far this year. Papenhuyzen has three tries, two try assists, 25 tackle breaks, 181 average running metres and an 86 per cent tackle efficiency rate... plus a memorable, booming field goal last week to send the clash with the Storm into extra time. Struck match between them.
George Williams and Jahrome Hughes George Williams has had a fine start to his NRL career, producing eight try assists in eight matches, courtesy of his pin point short kicking game. He also bagged his first NRL try against the Dragons, the result of some great stepping and running. Jahrome Hughes is no slouch either. He has two tries and seven try assists. Both like to run a bit (Williams 78 average running metres, Hughes 74) and both are pretty solid in defence (Williams 86 per cent tackle efficiency, Hughes 84 per cent). Williams has the better kicking game, but both have three forced line drop outs to their name. If I were in the business of awarding "skins", Williams would take this one.
Josh Papalii and Jesse Bromwich. These two props might not face each other directly, but they are key forward leaders for each team. Papalii started off the bench last week, with Ricky Stuart aiming to give some younger forwards more responsibility. With the Raiders' pack decimated by injury, it is likely he'll be back to his usual role as starting prop in this game. In 2020, Papalii has two tries, 20 tackle breaks, 153 average metres gained, 451 post contact metres and a 97 per cent tackle efficiency rate to his name. Bromwich has posted three tackle breaks, 131 average metres gained, 392 post contact metres and a 93 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Papalii is the best prop in the game, in my view, but Bromwich is just one of a formidable forward pack, that also includes the likes of Nelson Asofa-Solomona. "Papa" will really have to lead from the front if the Raiders' pack is to win the battle up front in this one.
Our tip: The Storm should be raging hot favourites in this game. The Raiders have demonstrated they have the game plan to beat the Storm - and did just that, impressively, just six weeks ago. But since then, the Raiders have produced some poor performances and have been inconsistent at best. The Raiders' pack has struggled to get on top of their opponents. And now, the Green Machine pack been torn apart by injury, with four of last year's Grand Final team sidelined, long-term. They face one of the best packs in the competition in this contest. The Storm might be missing Cameron Munster, but they still have a bloke called Cameron Smith running the show. One thing in the Raiders' favour is that the Storm is coming off a golden point clash with the Roosters, a game which will have taken its toll. But if the Raiders can manage to win this game, it'll be one of their best against the odds victories. I have to let the head rule the heart with this tip. Storm by 12.
What they're saying:
George Williams - "I'm enjoying testing myself against other players every week and learn something new every day. The speed of the game is a massive difference and the new rules probably help that but even before then I felt it was a bit quicker to Super League. That's no disrespect to Super League, it's a good standard, but we all know the NRL is the pinnacle."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Michael Oldfield
5. Bailey Simonsson
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Siliva Havili
15. Kai O'Donnell
16. Ryan Sutton
17. Jordan Rapana
18. Tom Starling
21. Curtis Scott
Injury/Suspension
Jordan Rapana, Calf (Rd 9-10)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 17-19)
John Bateman, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Sia Soliola, Palate (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Marion Seve
3. Justin Olam
4. Paul Momirovski
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Ryley Jacks
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Christian Welch
12. Kenneath Bromwich
15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
13. Dale Finucane
14. Brandon Smith
16. Tom Eisenhuth
17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
20. Brenko Lee
18. Darryn Schonig
21. Nicho Hynes
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Dave Munro, Peter Gough
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersStorm
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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