2020 Rd 7 V Eels: Game Day
Posted: June 23, 2020, 12:04 pm
2020 Rd 7 V Eels: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
Saturday June 27 7:35pm
Western Sydney Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 30 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm Min 8 Max 17
The Canberra Raiders travel again to Sydney this weekend... this time for their Round 7 clash with the Parramatta Eels at Western Sydney Stadium.
Last time: 2020 Round 6. Manly Sea Eagles 14 - Canberra Raiders 6. It was a disappointing performance from the Raiders. Seriously disappointing - not least because it was against a Sea Eagles outfit that started the game depleted by injury, and that ended the game with one player on the bench. Manly lost two players, five eighth Dylan Walker and Brad Parker inside the first five minutes. They then lost star fullback Tom Trbojevic less than five minutes into the second half - but not before he'd set up a 12-0 half time lead for the "visitors". It proved to be a match winning lead.
More on Round 6: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has elected not to change his team from the one which lost to the Sea Eagles. Brad Takairani has been named in place of Peni Terepo on the Eels' interchange bench. Parramatta lock Nathan Brown failed to have a two match suspension overturned on Tuesday night.
Late changes: The Canberra Raiders ruled out Joe Tapine on Friday with a minor knee injury, after he failed to complete the captains' run. Hudson Young has been named in the second row, and Bailey Simonsson has been included on the bench. However, Stuart has said he'll take a final decision on the forward reshuffle on Saturday. Another option would be to shift Corey Horsburgh to the second row, and start Ryan Sutton at lock. Matt Frawley has been omitted from the squad of 21.
The Eels have announced Marata Niukore will start in place of Nathan Brown (suspended), with Daniel Alvaro coming onto the bench.
History: Canberra has won 31 of 59 games against the Parramatta Eels. The Raiders have lost just three times to the Eels in the past 10 matches. Canberra were on a five game winning streak against Parramatta, before falling to the Eels 22-16 in their last meeting at Darwin. The teams have not yet met at the new Western Sydney Stadium, but Canberra won just eight of 22 games played at its previous incarnation, Parramatta Stadium.
2019 Round 15: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
2019 Round 5: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
2018 Round 6: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
Form: Raiders: WWLWL
Eels: WWWWL
The Eels suffered their first defeat of 2020 last weekend, losing to the Roosters 24-10 at Western Sydney Stadium. The Raiders have not won two games in a row since the resumption of the season.
Betting: The Eels are $1.76 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.07. The Raiders have 2.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have shorten over the week.
Stat attack: This is a battle between first (Eels) and fifth (Raiders) on the ladder. The Raiders attack has been stuttering, and they now rank ninth in the NRL for points and tries scored. The free flowing Eels have been dropping down in the attacking rankings, since posting big scores against the Eels and Broncos. They now sit just outside the top four attacking teams. The Eels have had a glut of possession so far in 2020 (first in the NRL, Raiders 13th) and they love to use the ball and run. They rank fourth in the NRL for running metres (Raiders ninth), first for offloads (Raiders 14th), second for tackle breaks (Raiders seventh) and second for line breaks (Raiders sixth). The Eels are first in the NRL for general play passes, the Raiders dead last. The Raiders are much more conservative in attack these days. They like making dummy half runs (third in the NRL, Eels 15th) and one pass hit ups (second in the NRL, Eels third).
Both teams have good defensive records, ranked in the top three teams. Both teams miss a fair few tackles (Raiders fifth, Eels sixth), but their ineffective tackle counts are low, and their tackle efficiency rates aren't bad. Josh Hodgson now leads the NRL for missed tackles (33)... but the Eels' Waqa Blake (25) is not far behind, ranking fourth. Where the Raiders are really falling down is in errors (third in the NRL, Eels seventh) and penalties conceded (fifth, Eels 15th). Josh Hodgson and Joe Tapine lead the NRL for penalties conceded (six apiece). The Eels are second for the fewest penalties conceded, behind the Sea Eagles.
The Raiders rank third in the competition for total kick metres, the Eels fifth. The Raiders are fourth for long kicks (Eels equal 10th) and first for weighted kicks (Eels fifth). The Eels lead the league for forced line drop outs (16, compared with eight for the Raiders). Look for both teams to use kicks as a weapon on Saturday, through Moses, Williams, Hodgson and Wighton.
2020 Season record: Raiders 4 and 2 (5th, +32)
Eels 5 and 1 (1st, +64)
Attack: Raiders 17 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on tries scored
Eels 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 5th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 12 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd
Eels 11 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 2nd
Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Eels 56 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Eels 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1681 running metres from 177 runs (13 dummy half runs), 175 kick return metres, 558 post contact metres per match
Eels 1897 running metres from 199 runs (8 dummy half runs), 245 kick return metres, 597 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Eels 37 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Eels 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Eels 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Eels 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 7, Eels 17 per match
Kicking: Raiders 610 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Eels 592 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 353 made, 31 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Eels 308 made, 30 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1455, Eels 1283 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Eels 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Eels 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Clint Gutherson. After a break out season in 2019, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is finding the going a bit tougher in 2020. Opposition teams are targeting him with bombs and are aiming to cut down his space for kick returns. He's still producing lots of running metres, maybe not as many as 2019, but he's still in the top five players in the NRL that score (1216 metres from 127 runs). He's also top five for kick return metres (344). However, his opponent this week, Clint Gutherson ranks first in the competition for both running metres (1288) and kick return metres (504). Overall Gutherson has had the stronger start to 2020. He has two tries, 15 tackle breaks, one try assist and four line breaks. Nicoll-Klokstad has one try, 16 tackle breaks and no line breaks or try assists. The Raiders will be looking for CNK to lift his attacking threat this week.
Nick Cotric and Maika Sivo. Fijian winger Maika Sivo finished top of the try scoring list in his debut season with the Eels in 2019. He's down the list so far in 2020, having scored three - which is level with his Raiders opponent in this match, Nick Cotric. In 2020, Sivo has two try assists, 17 tackle breaks, four line breaks and an average 139 running metres. Cotric has moved to the right wing this season, and he's had issues building a defensive combination with centre partner Curtis Scott. Cotric has five try causes and Sivo two - even though Cotric has the better tackle efficiency (81 per cent versus 63 per cent). Cotric is a damaging runner, ranking equal second in the NRL for tackle breaks (38), just behind David Nofoaluma (39) and level with James Tedesco. But he'll probably be looking to lift his involvement rates. Cotric has one try assist, three line breaks and an average 116 running metres this year.
George Williams and Mitchell Moses. Mitchell Moses is maturing as a halfback and is one of the highest profile halves in the competition. But George Williams shapes up pretty well in this contest. In 2020, Moses has one try, two try assists, four offloads, 10 forced line drop outs and 79 running metres and 410 kicking metres per game. Williams is yet to score an NRL try, but he has six try assists, one line break assist, two offloads, three forced line drop outs and 76 running metres and 247 kicking metres per game. Moses ranks third in the NRL for kicking metres, second for total kicks and first for forced line drop outs. Most of the Eels' kicking comes from Moses, so the Raiders will need to try and close him down. Williams has a very good short kicking game, and he could easily have picked up a couple more try assists last week with his cross field kicks. Williams has the advantage in defence (an effective tackle rate of 88 per cent, compared with 78 per cent for Moses) - though both have two try causes to their name. Williams didn't have his best game last week, so he'll be looking to rebound in this one.
Josh Papalii and Junior Paulo. Former Raiders prop, Junior Paulo, comes up against his old team this week. Paulo's fitness, error rate and lateral movement were issues at the Raiders in 2018. But in 2020, he looks fitter and has found his mojo again in Eels colours. So far this year, Paulo has 18 tackle breaks, 337 post contact metres, an average 159 running metres and 22 tackles per game and a 93 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Paulo ranks equal second in the competition for offloads 17), behind team mate Ryan Matterson. Papalii has a try, 19 tackle breaks, 324 post contact metres, 147 running metres and 32 tackles per game and a 97 per cent tackle efficiency rate. His game is almost error free. All round, Papalii is the better player for mine, but, like most Raiders, he'll be looking to lift on his performance in the loss to the Sea Eagles.
Our tip: The Eels are deserved favourites in this match. The Raiders have quite a few things to fix, in particular, the right side defence, attacking cohesion, and discipline - the errors, re-starts and penalties conceded. They have quite a way to lift if they're to come close to Parramatta. The can do it, as the Raiders at their best are up with the best. The Green Machine certainly lifted the intensity and effort after the loss to the Knights. But the issues of recent weeks are a bit more difficult to address. Until we see some turnaround on the field, it is hard for me to go past the Eels in this one. Eels by six... and with the new rules, I wouldn't rule out a bigger margin.
What they're saying:
Ricky Stuart: "We are struggling with attack. We can see what our issues are and we have got to fix it quickly. We have got to get a bit more football first but even when we have got the football, when we are attacking, since we have come back from the break, we have been poor offensively. It is certainly not a time now to be throwing everything out and starting all over again. We are not far away and it can be fixed quickly."
Jack Wighton: "Cracker game coming up. We'll go and have a look. It's all things we can fix definitely. We fixed the energy problem and turning up for each other after that Newcastle game where we just weren't on the park. "
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Sia Soliola
17. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Ryan Sutton
18. Bailey Simonsson
19. Dunamis Lui
21. Tom Starling
Injury/Suspension
Joe Tapine, Knee (TBA)
John Bateman, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson
2. Maika Sivo
3. Michael Jennings
4. Waqa Blake
5. Blake Ferguson
6. Dylan Brown
7. Mitchell Moses
8. Regan Campbell-Gillard
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Junior Paulo
11. Shaun Lane
12. Ryan Matterson
15. Marata Niukore
14. Ray Stone
16. Orgegon Kaufusi
17. Brad Takairangi
19. Daniel Alvaro
18. David Gower
20. George Jennings
b]Officials[/b]
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Gavin Badger, Todd Smith
Video referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLEelsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders[/color][/size][/b]
Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
Saturday June 27 7:35pm
Western Sydney Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 30 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm Min 8 Max 17
The Canberra Raiders travel again to Sydney this weekend... this time for their Round 7 clash with the Parramatta Eels at Western Sydney Stadium.
Last time: 2020 Round 6. Manly Sea Eagles 14 - Canberra Raiders 6. It was a disappointing performance from the Raiders. Seriously disappointing - not least because it was against a Sea Eagles outfit that started the game depleted by injury, and that ended the game with one player on the bench. Manly lost two players, five eighth Dylan Walker and Brad Parker inside the first five minutes. They then lost star fullback Tom Trbojevic less than five minutes into the second half - but not before he'd set up a 12-0 half time lead for the "visitors". It proved to be a match winning lead.
More on Round 6: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has elected not to change his team from the one which lost to the Sea Eagles. Brad Takairani has been named in place of Peni Terepo on the Eels' interchange bench. Parramatta lock Nathan Brown failed to have a two match suspension overturned on Tuesday night.
Late changes: The Canberra Raiders ruled out Joe Tapine on Friday with a minor knee injury, after he failed to complete the captains' run. Hudson Young has been named in the second row, and Bailey Simonsson has been included on the bench. However, Stuart has said he'll take a final decision on the forward reshuffle on Saturday. Another option would be to shift Corey Horsburgh to the second row, and start Ryan Sutton at lock. Matt Frawley has been omitted from the squad of 21.
The Eels have announced Marata Niukore will start in place of Nathan Brown (suspended), with Daniel Alvaro coming onto the bench.
History: Canberra has won 31 of 59 games against the Parramatta Eels. The Raiders have lost just three times to the Eels in the past 10 matches. Canberra were on a five game winning streak against Parramatta, before falling to the Eels 22-16 in their last meeting at Darwin. The teams have not yet met at the new Western Sydney Stadium, but Canberra won just eight of 22 games played at its previous incarnation, Parramatta Stadium.
2019 Round 15: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
2019 Round 5: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
2018 Round 6: Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
Form: Raiders: WWLWL
Eels: WWWWL
The Eels suffered their first defeat of 2020 last weekend, losing to the Roosters 24-10 at Western Sydney Stadium. The Raiders have not won two games in a row since the resumption of the season.
Betting: The Eels are $1.76 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.07. The Raiders have 2.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have shorten over the week.
Stat attack: This is a battle between first (Eels) and fifth (Raiders) on the ladder. The Raiders attack has been stuttering, and they now rank ninth in the NRL for points and tries scored. The free flowing Eels have been dropping down in the attacking rankings, since posting big scores against the Eels and Broncos. They now sit just outside the top four attacking teams. The Eels have had a glut of possession so far in 2020 (first in the NRL, Raiders 13th) and they love to use the ball and run. They rank fourth in the NRL for running metres (Raiders ninth), first for offloads (Raiders 14th), second for tackle breaks (Raiders seventh) and second for line breaks (Raiders sixth). The Eels are first in the NRL for general play passes, the Raiders dead last. The Raiders are much more conservative in attack these days. They like making dummy half runs (third in the NRL, Eels 15th) and one pass hit ups (second in the NRL, Eels third).
Both teams have good defensive records, ranked in the top three teams. Both teams miss a fair few tackles (Raiders fifth, Eels sixth), but their ineffective tackle counts are low, and their tackle efficiency rates aren't bad. Josh Hodgson now leads the NRL for missed tackles (33)... but the Eels' Waqa Blake (25) is not far behind, ranking fourth. Where the Raiders are really falling down is in errors (third in the NRL, Eels seventh) and penalties conceded (fifth, Eels 15th). Josh Hodgson and Joe Tapine lead the NRL for penalties conceded (six apiece). The Eels are second for the fewest penalties conceded, behind the Sea Eagles.
The Raiders rank third in the competition for total kick metres, the Eels fifth. The Raiders are fourth for long kicks (Eels equal 10th) and first for weighted kicks (Eels fifth). The Eels lead the league for forced line drop outs (16, compared with eight for the Raiders). Look for both teams to use kicks as a weapon on Saturday, through Moses, Williams, Hodgson and Wighton.
2020 Season record: Raiders 4 and 2 (5th, +32)
Eels 5 and 1 (1st, +64)
Attack: Raiders 17 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on tries scored
Eels 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 5th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 12 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd
Eels 11 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 2nd
Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Eels 56 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Eels 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1681 running metres from 177 runs (13 dummy half runs), 175 kick return metres, 558 post contact metres per match
Eels 1897 running metres from 199 runs (8 dummy half runs), 245 kick return metres, 597 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Eels 37 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Eels 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Eels 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Eels 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 7, Eels 17 per match
Kicking: Raiders 610 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Eels 592 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 353 made, 31 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Eels 308 made, 30 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1455, Eels 1283 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Eels 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Eels 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Clint Gutherson. After a break out season in 2019, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is finding the going a bit tougher in 2020. Opposition teams are targeting him with bombs and are aiming to cut down his space for kick returns. He's still producing lots of running metres, maybe not as many as 2019, but he's still in the top five players in the NRL that score (1216 metres from 127 runs). He's also top five for kick return metres (344). However, his opponent this week, Clint Gutherson ranks first in the competition for both running metres (1288) and kick return metres (504). Overall Gutherson has had the stronger start to 2020. He has two tries, 15 tackle breaks, one try assist and four line breaks. Nicoll-Klokstad has one try, 16 tackle breaks and no line breaks or try assists. The Raiders will be looking for CNK to lift his attacking threat this week.
Nick Cotric and Maika Sivo. Fijian winger Maika Sivo finished top of the try scoring list in his debut season with the Eels in 2019. He's down the list so far in 2020, having scored three - which is level with his Raiders opponent in this match, Nick Cotric. In 2020, Sivo has two try assists, 17 tackle breaks, four line breaks and an average 139 running metres. Cotric has moved to the right wing this season, and he's had issues building a defensive combination with centre partner Curtis Scott. Cotric has five try causes and Sivo two - even though Cotric has the better tackle efficiency (81 per cent versus 63 per cent). Cotric is a damaging runner, ranking equal second in the NRL for tackle breaks (38), just behind David Nofoaluma (39) and level with James Tedesco. But he'll probably be looking to lift his involvement rates. Cotric has one try assist, three line breaks and an average 116 running metres this year.
George Williams and Mitchell Moses. Mitchell Moses is maturing as a halfback and is one of the highest profile halves in the competition. But George Williams shapes up pretty well in this contest. In 2020, Moses has one try, two try assists, four offloads, 10 forced line drop outs and 79 running metres and 410 kicking metres per game. Williams is yet to score an NRL try, but he has six try assists, one line break assist, two offloads, three forced line drop outs and 76 running metres and 247 kicking metres per game. Moses ranks third in the NRL for kicking metres, second for total kicks and first for forced line drop outs. Most of the Eels' kicking comes from Moses, so the Raiders will need to try and close him down. Williams has a very good short kicking game, and he could easily have picked up a couple more try assists last week with his cross field kicks. Williams has the advantage in defence (an effective tackle rate of 88 per cent, compared with 78 per cent for Moses) - though both have two try causes to their name. Williams didn't have his best game last week, so he'll be looking to rebound in this one.
Josh Papalii and Junior Paulo. Former Raiders prop, Junior Paulo, comes up against his old team this week. Paulo's fitness, error rate and lateral movement were issues at the Raiders in 2018. But in 2020, he looks fitter and has found his mojo again in Eels colours. So far this year, Paulo has 18 tackle breaks, 337 post contact metres, an average 159 running metres and 22 tackles per game and a 93 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Paulo ranks equal second in the competition for offloads 17), behind team mate Ryan Matterson. Papalii has a try, 19 tackle breaks, 324 post contact metres, 147 running metres and 32 tackles per game and a 97 per cent tackle efficiency rate. His game is almost error free. All round, Papalii is the better player for mine, but, like most Raiders, he'll be looking to lift on his performance in the loss to the Sea Eagles.
Our tip: The Eels are deserved favourites in this match. The Raiders have quite a few things to fix, in particular, the right side defence, attacking cohesion, and discipline - the errors, re-starts and penalties conceded. They have quite a way to lift if they're to come close to Parramatta. The can do it, as the Raiders at their best are up with the best. The Green Machine certainly lifted the intensity and effort after the loss to the Knights. But the issues of recent weeks are a bit more difficult to address. Until we see some turnaround on the field, it is hard for me to go past the Eels in this one. Eels by six... and with the new rules, I wouldn't rule out a bigger margin.
What they're saying:
Ricky Stuart: "We are struggling with attack. We can see what our issues are and we have got to fix it quickly. We have got to get a bit more football first but even when we have got the football, when we are attacking, since we have come back from the break, we have been poor offensively. It is certainly not a time now to be throwing everything out and starting all over again. We are not far away and it can be fixed quickly."
Jack Wighton: "Cracker game coming up. We'll go and have a look. It's all things we can fix definitely. We fixed the energy problem and turning up for each other after that Newcastle game where we just weren't on the park. "
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Sia Soliola
17. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Ryan Sutton
18. Bailey Simonsson
19. Dunamis Lui
21. Tom Starling
Injury/Suspension
Joe Tapine, Knee (TBA)
John Bateman, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson
2. Maika Sivo
3. Michael Jennings
4. Waqa Blake
5. Blake Ferguson
6. Dylan Brown
7. Mitchell Moses
8. Regan Campbell-Gillard
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Junior Paulo
11. Shaun Lane
12. Ryan Matterson
15. Marata Niukore
14. Ray Stone
16. Orgegon Kaufusi
17. Brad Takairangi
19. Daniel Alvaro
18. David Gower
20. George Jennings
b]Officials[/b]
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Gavin Badger, Todd Smith
Video referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLEelsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders[/color][/size][/b]