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2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 18, 2020, 1:44 pm
by greeneyed
2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday May 30 7:35pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: 🌞 💨 Sunny. Becoming windy. Sunny day. Slight chance of a shower at night. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h at first, increasing to 25 to 40 km/h from late morning. Chance of any rain: 20 per cent Min: 9 Max: 17

The 2020 NRL season was put into a 10 week suspension due to the coronavirus pandemic... but the Canberra Raiders now return to the field in Round 3 for a clash with the Melbourne Storm.

Last time: Canberra Raiders 20 - New Zealand Warriors 6. It was a unique match, played in front of no crowd, a "home" game for the New Zealand Warriors played on the Gold Coast. It was also a fairly ugly match, full of error, ill discipline and stoppages. It was played in blistering hot conditions and that no doubt contributed to the error rate. The Raiders were not the well oiled Green Machine we saw in the first half of the win over the Titans. But they never really looked like losing the game, such was the strength of their defence.



More on Round 2: As I saw it

Team news: The Canberra Raiders have retained the top 17 which defeated the Warriors in Round 2. John Bateman (shoulder surgery) has not recovered in time for the match, with Joe Tapine and Elliott Whitehead retained in the second row and Corey Horsburgh at lock. Jordan Rapana has been named on the extended bench. This will be the first match which new Raiders recruit, Curtis Scott, plays against his former team.

Melbourne has included Brandon Smith and Christian Welch on the bench. Tui Kamikamica is out of the squad, while Tom Eisenhuth drops to the extended bench.

Milestone: Josh Papalii will play his 200th game for the Canberra Raiders.

Late changes: For the Raiders, Bailey Simonsson was ruled out on Friday night with a minor leg infection and Michael Oldfield will be his replacement. Jordan Rapana comes onto the bench. Kai O'Donnell drops off the extended bench, with Matt Frawley and Tom Starling remaining in the 19 man squad. The Storm have omitted Tom Eisenhuth and Darren Schonig from their squad.

History: The Raiders have won only 13 of 44 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a 30 per cent win rate. Canberra has won three of the past 10 clashes between the clubs. They narrowly lost the Preliminary Final in 2016, 14-12, in Melbourne - and that was the start of a five game losing streak for the Raiders against the Storm. The Green Machine broke that streak with a memorable 22-18 victory in Bleak City in Round 22. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points. They followed up with another stunning, 12-10, victory in Week 1 of the finals last year - with a John Bateman try in the final stages delivering a match winning lead.


2019 Finals Week 1 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2019 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2019 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm

The venue for this match is yet to be officially announced, but it is a Storm home game, and the NRL has announced that Melbourne Rectangular Stadium will be one of the venues used up until Round 9. That might be a plus for the Raiders. Canberra has won five of the 10 matches the clubs have played at the Melbourne Rectangular. The Raiders have won just six of the 23 matches against the Storm in Melbourne.

Form: Raiders: WWLWW
Storm: LWLWW

The Raiders started 2020 with two wins - over the Gold Coast Titans and New Zealand Warriors. The Storm is also undefeated so far this year, recording wins over the Sea Eagles (18-4) at Brookvale and the Sharks (12-10) at Kogarah.

Betting: The Storm is a firm $1.55 favourite, while the Raiders are paying $2.45. The Raiders have 5.5 points start in the line betting. Canberra’s odds have lengthened over the week.

Stat attack: The Raiders finished fourth in 2019, while the Storm was minor premier, losing only four matches in the regular season. However, the Storm lost twice in its finals campaign - to the ultimate Grand Finalists. Melbourne had the best attack (26 points scored per match) and defence (13 points conceded per match) in 2019. The Raiders ranked fourth in attack (22 points per match) and third in defence (16 points per match).

It is difficult to draw too much from the statistics for 2020, with just two games played and the varied strength of opponents. In particular, the Raiders faced two of the weakest teams in the competition in the first two rounds. So far, the Raiders (7th) have a better attacking record than the Storm (10th). The Raiders rank fourth in the NRL for running metres, second for dummy half runs (34), first for line breaks (10) and second for tackle breaks (91). The Storm ranks first for fewest tries conceded (1) and the Raiders rank third (2) - but one of the tries conceded by the Raiders was a penalty try. The Raiders rank second for fewest points conceded, the Storm third.

2020 Season record: Raiders 2 and 0 (3rd, +32)
Storm 2 and 0 (4th, +16)

Attack: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 7th
Storm 15 points and 2 tries scored per match, ranked 10th

Defence: Raiders 6 points and 1 try conceded per match, ranked 2nd
Storm 7 points and 1 try conceded per match, ranked 3rd

Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Storm 51 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 72 per cent, Storm 79 per cent

Running: Raiders 1734 running metres from 180 runs (17 dummy half runs), 211 kick return metres, 495 post contact metres per match
Storm 1563 running metres from 182 runs (12 dummy half runs), 173 kick return metres, 465 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 45, Storm 24

Line breaks: Raiders 5, Storm 2 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Storm 2 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 3, Storm 2 per match

Offloads: Raiders 7, Storm 9 per match

Kicking: Raiders 591 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Storm 548 kicking metres from 25 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 315 made, 30 missed, 13 ineffective per match
Storm 313 made, 23 missed, 14 ineffective per match

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1359, Storm 1178 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 12, Storm 13 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 8, Storm 8 per match

Key match-ups:

Josh Hodgson versus Cameron Smith. Two of the top three hookers in the world. Smith, aged 36, has over 400 NRL games to his name and if he's not the best dummy half in the business these days, he's close. In the opening rounds, he's produced two try assists, one line break assist, two forced line drop outs and has posted a 93 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Josh Hodgson's form in the opening rounds has also been good, if not quite as strong. He's posted two try assists, one line break assist and one forced line drop out. Hodgson does a lot of work in defence, but his effective tackle rate is not quite as good as Smith (88 per cent).

Jack Wighton versus Cameron Munster. Two representative players meet at five eighth. Both have made the switch from fullback earlier in their careers. Munster has four appearances for the Kangaroos and seven for the Maroons, mostly in the No. 6 jersey. He's been the Storm's regular five eighth since 2017. Jack Wighton broke into the Kangaroos and Blues teams in 2019, after switching to five eighth for the Raiders at the start of last season. But Wighton had to play out of position, at centre, to achieve his representative break through. He ended 2019 with the Clive Churchill Medal, named the best player in the Grand Final in a losing team. Both Munster and Wighton are good runners (Munster 105 running metres per match in 2020, Wighton 63) and defenders (Munster 92 per cent tackle efficiency, Wighton 84). Wighton has also impressed with his kicking in the No. 6 jersey (Wighton 271 average kicking metres, Munster 194). And with two tries to his name so far, Wighton's had the slightly better start to 2020.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad versus Ryan Papenhuyzen. Two fullbacks who had break out debut seasons with their clubs in 2019. Nicoll-Klokstad ended the 2019 season with 11 tries, fourth in the try scoring stakes amongst his fellow fullbacks. He finished second in the NRL, to James Tedesco, for total running metres and finished first for kick return metres. He was in the top 10 players for running metres per game, and first for kick return metres per game amongst the regular fullbacks. He made five in goal escapes, more than any player in the NRL. He was seventh in the NRL for total tackle breaks - and first at the Raiders. Papenhuzen also had a fine debut season with the Storm, making eight starting appearances in the No. 1 jersey. While Papenhuyzen has probably had the better of the opening two rounds of 2020, there's not much in the statistics. It should be a great contest.

Our tip: The Raiders proved last year that they know how to beat the Storm. The Raiders will need to match Melbourne in the middle and have good intensity and line speed in defence. Last year, they were effective in breaking down the Storm's defence with offloads and by passing from one edge to another, stretching the Storm line. Another tactic that worked was to kick in behind the perpetually off side Storm defensive line.

It will be interesting to see how the new "six again" rule affects the contest. The Storm are the best in the competition for the "wrestle", but the Raiders were also good in that department last year. If the ruck speed does improve, both teams have a hooker who can take advantage. Given the Raiders run from dummy half more than just about any team, they might have the edge in that department.

The challenge for Canberra will be winning three times a row against Melbourne. The Green Machine has never done it. In addition, the Storm almost always have a fast start to their season. Over the past decade, they have won 78 per cent of their games in the opening seven rounds. The Storm do look a little weaker in 2020, with the loss of Curtis Scott and Will Chambers. Cameron Smith is one year older, but he's still Cameron Smith. And Melbourne still has a strong forward pack with the likes of Jesse Bromwich and Nelson Asofa-Solomona - and strike wingers Suliasi Vunivalu and Josh Addo-Carr out wide. It's going to be very tough, but the Raiders have their own weapons - and I think they can do it. Raiders by four.

What they're saying:

Ricky Stuart: "With the break the players have had I don't think they really care who they're playing they just want to play a game of football because they had a long hard off-season, only got to play two games and then we had six or seven weeks off. I know they'll be real keen to get out and play."

Canberra Raiders

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
17. Michael Oldfield
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh

14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Sia Soliola
18. Jordan Rapana

19. Matt Frawley
21. Tom Starling

Injury/Suspension
Hudson Young, Suspension (Round 6)
John Bateman, Shoulder (Round 4-5)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Suliasi Vunivalu
3. Justin Olam
4. Marion Seve
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenneath Bromwich
13. Dale Finucane

14. Brandon Smith
15. Tino Faasuamaleaui
16. Christian Welch
17. Max King

19. Brenko Lee
20. Ryley Jacks

Officials

Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Gavin Badger, Todd Smith
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeAreRaiders #NRLStormRaiders

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders[/color][/size][/b]

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 18, 2020, 1:47 pm
by greeneyed
With Matt deciding to no longer produce Matt's Match-ups... I've added a Key Match-ups section to the Game Day preview...

If people would like to suggest anything else they'd like to see in the previews, or change, happy to have suggestions.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 18, 2020, 6:37 pm
by simo
Will somebody else be creating an interesting yet flawed system for comparing squad match ups?

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 19, 2020, 2:14 pm
by gangrenous
greeneyed wrote:With Matt deciding to no longer produce Matt's Match-ups... I've added a Key Match-ups section to the Game Day preview...

If people would like to suggest anything else they'd like to see in the previews, or change, happy to have suggestions.
Image

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 19, 2020, 5:55 pm
by BadnMean
greeneyed wrote: May 18, 2020, 1:47 pm With Matt deciding to no longer produce Matt's Match-ups... I've added a Key Match-ups section to the Game Day preview...

If people would like to suggest anything else they'd like to see in the previews, or change, happy to have suggestions.
I'd like a return of Matt's Match Ups please.

And a subforum devoted to expaining his match up system with graphs and extensive computer modelling to proof Slater vs Milford.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 20, 2020, 1:19 am
by afgtnk
I'd like to see a return of that Pigotman segment where he takes an opposition player and politely asks who they are, as they are generally not well known.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 20, 2020, 3:05 pm
by simo
afgtnk wrote: May 20, 2020, 1:19 am I'd like to see a return of that Pigotman segment where he takes an opposition player and politely asks who they are, as they are generally not well known.
Ahh, pigs “can somebody shed some light on who this up and comer is?”

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 20, 2020, 3:32 pm
by Botman
Botman's "Excuse me kind sir, sorry to bother you but if it's not to much trouble, could you please help with my ongoing RL education by telling about this player in the opposition side as i, and i suspect many other people are not aware of his level or talent or ability" will be making its long await return with the team lists

Im still tinkering with the name

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 20, 2020, 3:49 pm
by gerg
Botman wrote:Botman's "Excuse me kind sir, sorry to bother you but if it's not to much trouble, could you please help with my ongoing RL education by telling about this player in the opposition side as i, and i suspect many other people are not aware of his level or talent or ability" will be making its long await return with the team lists

Im still tinkering with the name
I think it is a GH tradition to convert it into an acronym.

Sent from my SM-G570F using Tapatalk


Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 20, 2020, 4:03 pm
by Sid
I for one am looking forward to EMKSSTBYBIIINTMTCYPHWMORLEBTATPITOSAIAISMOPANAOHLOTOA

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 22, 2020, 5:26 am
by T_R
Sid wrote:I for one am looking forward to EMKSSTBYBIIINTMTCYPHWMORLEBTATPITOSAIAISMOPANAOHLOTOA
Tatpitosaiais Mopanaohlotoa sounds like someone we should recruit.

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Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 22, 2020, 1:58 pm
by Seiffert82
T_R wrote: May 22, 2020, 5:26 am
Sid wrote:I for one am looking forward to EMKSSTBYBIIINTMTCYPHWMORLEBTATPITOSAIAISMOPANAOHLOTOA
Tatpitosaiais Mopanaohlotoa sounds like someone we should recruit.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
:lol:

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 29, 2020, 7:37 pm
by greeneyed
Game Day preview updated for squads, weather, odds: viewtopic.php?p=1729061#p1729061

Bailey Simonsson (minor leg infection) is out, with Michael Oldfield to start on the wing, and Jordan Rapana on the bench.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 29, 2020, 7:53 pm
by zim
Heh, my sleuthing from the photos was way off.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 12:23 am
by Ilanraiders
Game day!!! Go the Raiders!!

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 5:42 am
by Off
You won the "chinese flu year"... yeah,nah..but yeah...ill play.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:56 am
by Kryptonite
Game Day Green Ants!

Caaaarrn Raiders, crush the purple filth!

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 7:17 am
by raiderskater
Excited! I really feel this will be the match of the round. Everything else has been really lopsided and a bit messy. Really feel that we're in a good spot and can come out on top.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 7:59 am
by 1992
If we get 2 players sin binned in the first half..we win.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 8:04 am
by raiderskater
1992 wrote: May 30, 2020, 7:59 am If we get 2 players sin binned in the first half..we win.
Who is sacrificing their eye to the firework god this time?

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 11:39 am
by Horace Dove-Edwin
Bateman is a big out.

After watching the first three games I see our mobile pack as an advantage.

Also ball control is vital. Broncos and Titans were right in it until the high number of turnovers wore them down.

Fingers crossed we get a fair run with the ref.

Sent from my Mi A3 using Tapatalk


Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 11:46 am
by julian87
Our mobile pack at full strength is an advantage but I feel being without Bateman and Young could hurt us atm tbh. We don’t really have a 3rd second rower so we’ll likely see a prop fill in there if Tapine needs a rest and that seems risky with how ridiculously fast these games have been.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 12:01 pm
by raiderskater
As soon as the pundits started talking about how this will disadvantage big packs, I did a little airpunch. A light mobile pack like ours? This is made for us.

Our fitness will be the key. One thing I have noticed in the games back thus far has been the obvious drop off in intensity around the 65-70 minute mark. But the refs have also been looking tired at that point too. We need to make sure our minds stay set on 80 minutes.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 1:41 pm
by BadnMean
julian87 wrote: May 30, 2020, 11:46 am Our mobile pack at full strength is an advantage but I feel being without Bateman and Young could hurt us atm tbh. We don’t really have a 3rd second rower so we’ll likely see a prop fill in there if Tapine needs a rest and that seems risky with how ridiculously fast these games have been.
I wonder if Rapa comes into the thinking on that edge? he plays right. Defend at 2nd row (he's big enough and likes contact) and run from dummy half/wreak havoc on the edge?

I also think Tarps struggles to concentrate a full 80, partly because his engine isn't quite set for it.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 1:56 pm
by -PJ-
I've been away from here for a period.

Very pumped for tonite, GREEN by 8.

Jack Wighton MOM.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 2:04 pm
by Old School Green
Nickman’s Pick-Man must return...

In other news is there more smoke? Raps to start oldy bench??

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 2:56 pm
by -PJ-
Congrats to Josh Papalii on 200fg games in our awesome jersey.

Love ya Papa, do what you do !!

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 5:20 pm
by 1992
Imagine Leipana of 2016 with these new rules?!?!

*fap*fap*fap

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 5:54 pm
by Horace Dove-Edwin
Old School Green wrote:Nickman’s Pick-Man must return...

In other news is there more smoke? Raps to start oldy bench??
I like it.

Sent from my Mi A3 using Tapatalk


Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:02 pm
by The Greenhouse
Welcome to our coverage of tonight's Round 3 clash between the Canberra Raiders and Melbourne Storm at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium. Jordan Rapana will start! The Raiders have him on the left wing, the NRL has him on the right, with Cotric shifting to the left. Here are the final team line ups:

Canberra Raiders

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
18. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh

14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Sia Soliola
17. Michael Oldfield

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Suliasi Vunivalu
3. Justin Olam
4. Marion Seve
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenneath Bromwich
13. Dale Finucane

14. Brandon Smith
15. Tino Faasuamaleaui
16. Christian Welch
17. Max King

We will have live scores from 7:35pm right here in this thread. Join us then for live scores and discussion.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:38 pm
by Danaman137
SMOKESCREEN BABY


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Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:39 pm
by greeneyed
Rapana to start!

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:40 pm
by julian87
He’ll be on the right for sure.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:41 pm
by julian87
I love having him back on the sting but tbh I was sort of excited to have him on the bench with what he could add whereas Oldfield is a very good winger but a lot more limited with what he can offer on a footy field.

Re: 2020 Rd 3 V Storm: Game Day

Posted: May 30, 2020, 6:41 pm
by Old School Green
Always happening classic sticky smoke