Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

All the news on the Canberra Raiders NRL team, all in one place

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The Nickman
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by The Nickman »

Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:47 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:44 pm I didn't realise a Strawman had a word limit??

Anyway, my point still stands, massive exaggeration or no...
If they don't then they should.

Like I said. We've been handed a slightly better smelling ****. Not exactly cause for rejoice. It's still a **** so of course people are going to complain.
I think our draw is good, I just think you're a pack of whingers haha
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Northern Raider
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Northern Raider »

The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 2:10 pm
Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:47 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:44 pm I didn't realise a Strawman had a word limit??

Anyway, my point still stands, massive exaggeration or no...
If they don't then they should.

Like I said. We've been handed a slightly better smelling ****. Not exactly cause for rejoice. It's still a **** so of course people are going to complain.
I think our draw is good, I just think you're a pack of whingers haha
You are
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The Nickman
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by The Nickman »

Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 2:13 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 2:10 pm
Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:47 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 1:44 pm I didn't realise a Strawman had a word limit??

Anyway, my point still stands, massive exaggeration or no...
If they don't then they should.

Like I said. We've been handed a slightly better smelling ****. Not exactly cause for rejoice. It's still a **** so of course people are going to complain.
I think our draw is good, I just think you're a pack of whingers haha
You are
Well... touche
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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

So I did a fairly simple index based on the 2019 ladder positions and number of games against other teams (play once or twice).

This shows the hardest to easiest draw on that basis.

Dragons 219
Warriors 212
Cowboys 211
Rabbitohs 208
Titans 208
Broncos 205
Roosters 203
Knights 201
Panthers 201
Raiders 201
Storm 201
Bulldogs 199
Eels 199
Sharks 199
Tigers 199
Sea Eagles 198

That confirms what some expected.

The Fox Sports Lab list reportedly takes account of head to head record, venue and travel between rounds. This is their list, hardest to easiest, I’ve added five day turnarounds, beside them...

Titans 0
Rabbitohs 3
Dragons 2
Broncos 0
Warriors 1
Sharks 3
Bulldogs 1
Roosters 2
Cowboys 1
Tigers 1
Sea Eagles 1
Panthers 1
Storm 3
Knights 1
Eels 3
Raiders 1

I’m not sure the turnarounds are enough to explain the differences... though the Storm, Eels and Sharks have two more short turnarounds. The travel thing should be largely helping Sydney teams... but it’s not clear that’s reflected either.
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The Nickman
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by The Nickman »

Haha so Fox Sports rates us the easiest draw and you just have to dispute it as being untrue??

Never change, Ferg.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by PerthRaider86 »

@greeneyed

It doesnt help that the week before we come over here to perth the Roosters play on thursday night and we play Sunday afternoon....... With a Saturday afternoon game here in perth..... Would of thought that they would of both been on saturday or sunday (or atleast last game sat/first game sunday)
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by -PJ- »

The Raiders have lodged a formal complaint to the NRL. They believe they are at a disadvantage...

Their gripe..

Only playing Newcastle once a year since 2016..
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by -PJ- »

I'll be heading up to Brisbane for magic round. Only Satd though. I'll be on holidays at the Gold Coast with family but I'm breaking away from that to hit Brissie on the Saturday morning(2nd).

I'll be meeting up with a coupe of mates who don't mean much to me but I look forward to catching up with a few of you.

Spend Saturday in Brissie and back to the Gold Coast Sunday morning to resume my holiday with Mrs PJ and PJjnr..
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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 3:43 pm Haha so Fox Sports rates us the easiest draw and you just have to dispute it as being untrue??

Never change, Ferg.
I didn’t believe it and they are not transparent in how they calculated it. I’ve done some where I’m transparent on how I’ve done it. But please, don’t thank me. It’s embarrassing how I receive so much of your praise.

In any case, you’re the mathematical genius, you should be able to whip up your own model in no time!
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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

zim wrote: October 29, 2019, 2:09 pm Doing it at this time of the year is always just for a bit of discussion anyway. Some rosters could change quite a bit compared to this years.
That's true. Things always change from last year's ladder. I agree it is a bit of a mathematical exercise only.
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-TW-
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by -TW- »

Models can be made to prove any hypothesis

I believe that's called, bias

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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

-TW- wrote: October 29, 2019, 4:12 pm Models can be made to prove any hypothesis

I believe that's called, bias

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If the models are transparent in what they're doing and assuming... then any biases are clear. Given my "model" had only two assumptions... position on the 2019, and the number of times teams play each other in 2020... it is pretty difficult to come up with any bias in that. The main issue is whether the 2019 ladder is an accurate reflection of 2020 performance... and we know it won't be. But it is one of the few objective sets of numbers you have.

Another option is to take the predicted finish in the betting market for 2020, recognising that is a market based predictor, based on the decisions of a lot of people who could be considered to have some degree of knowledge. I'll try that one if I get time.
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Billy Walker
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Billy Walker »

Assuming nobody is tipping we go through as undefeated premiers.... what is our first loss??

I’m tipping Magic Round 8 against Bulldogs. A team we should beat easily but we get caught off guard after a couple of tough efforts against eagles and rabbits.

I’d take that and be happy if we win the first 7 though....
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

How tough is your club's 2020 NRL draw?

The Titans, Warriors and Roosters will be tested by a tricky draw in 2020 while Manly and Wests Tigers have among the most generous fixture lists according to analysis of next season's NRL draw. Each opponent was attributed a score out of 16 – premiership favourites the Roosters were worth 16 points while last-ranked Gold Coast were 1 point.

1. Titans (222 points)
2. Warriors (220)
3. Roosters (217)
4. Broncos (216)
=4. Bulldogs (216)
=4. Dragons (216)
7. Storm (213)
8. Rabbitohs (211)
9. Sharks (209)
10. Knights (208)
11. Raiders (207)
=11. Cowboys (207)
=11. Eels (207)
=11. Panthers (207)
15. Wests Tigers (206)
16. Sea Eagles (202)

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/10/29/how ... -nrl-draw/
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Billy Walker
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Billy Walker »

Titans are always going to have a tougher draw than other teams on the basis they don’t get a guaranteed 4 points by playing the Titans twice.. 🤣
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by edwahu »

Using the ladder position to judge difficulty of the draw never works out.

The fact is we have 8 games against teams which are consistently amongst the hardest teams in the competition to beat over the last decade+. That's not an easy draw.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Bay53 »

Timing of when you get teams can be important too. Getting a so called easier run early has its positives in that we can build confidence and hopefully have a strong ladder position. However, we have seen that as the season drags on there can be some pretty easy wins as teams lose interest.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Northern Raider »

It's completely useless predicting the strength of schedule based on last year's ladder positions. 2019 draw would have shown games against Raiders, Eels and Sea Eagles as easy games.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by gerg »

Northern Raider wrote:
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:58 pm
Botman wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:27 pm
Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:22 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 11:56 am Haha people ARE still complaining about our increased FTA exposure!

Scenes!!
Increase yes but it's easy to increase when you've had bugger all prior to that. Statistically you can't paint it either way. 50% more than last year is the positive spin. Grand Finalists being one of the worst represented teams on FTA is the negative one.

The distribution is actually better than usual this year. Problem is it's still pretty ordinary. It's like a slightly better smelling ****.
Yeah but we're a small market. This is the same as every league in the world who are doing their schedules... the leagues try to provide SOME level of parity, but the reason the players earn the money they do is because of the billion dollar TV deal... that money doesnt come free, the league has to appease it's TV partners by giving them teams and markets that they can make money off through advertising

1/3 of our games will be on FTA, if we back up 2019 with another strong performance in 2020, ill bet that number will increase again next year,
Will it ever be total parity? No. And it shouldnt be unless we want to accept significantly less for the TV deal, and thus see a decrease in the salary cap and strength of the code.
Spot on. And people in here were complaining loudly that they didn't expect exactly the same number of FTA games as the biggest markets, they just wanted an increase reflecting our performance on field.

Well now that's happened, we've had an increase to our FTA coverage based on our performance on field (which many people said would never happen) and people are still complaining because we don't have exactly the same number of FTA games as teams like the Broncos?? Come on now.

And I've said it many, many times now... the biggest factor influencing our sponsorship, support and membership numbers is our performance on the field. We all saw that unbelievable crowd in the grand final, we're everyone's second team now. We have another season in 2020 like 2019 and we'll have even MORE support, FTA games or not.
Who are you referring to here? I don't know who was saying we should get the same number of FTA games as the Broncos.
I understand that some teams rate better than others but if the NRL wants a better competition it doesn't make sense for one side to get 18 games on FTA and others one or two. There is absolutely no good reason that every team can't get a minimum of about 10 games with the better rating sides still getting slightly more than others.

I'm happy to see us getting more but Titans and Warriors deserve more than 2 games.

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Northern Raider
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Northern Raider »

I think the Warriors get plenty of FTA coverage in NZ. I'm sure they'd still like better exposure in Australia too.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by gerg »

Northern Raider wrote:I think the Warriors get plenty of FTA coverage in NZ. I'm sure they'd still like better exposure in Australia too.
Absolutely. When they are on they're a good side to watch - but Kearney.

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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

VIDEO: Raiders build on country support with two regional fixtures: https://www.raiders.com.au/news/2019/10 ... -fixtures/

Road Raiders: 2020 Away Draw: https://www.raiders.com.au/news/2019/10 ... away-draw/
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Azza »

Our draw is fine. If we're good enough we'll be there again. If we're not we won't.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by BadnMean »

gergreg wrote: October 29, 2019, 7:39 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:58 pm
Botman wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:27 pm
Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:22 pm
Increase yes but it's easy to increase when you've had bugger all prior to that. Statistically you can't paint it either way. 50% more than last year is the positive spin. Grand Finalists being one of the worst represented teams on FTA is the negative one.

The distribution is actually better than usual this year. Problem is it's still pretty ordinary. It's like a slightly better smelling ****.
Yeah but we're a small market. This is the same as every league in the world who are doing their schedules... the leagues try to provide SOME level of parity, but the reason the players earn the money they do is because of the billion dollar TV deal... that money doesnt come free, the league has to appease it's TV partners by giving them teams and markets that they can make money off through advertising

1/3 of our games will be on FTA, if we back up 2019 with another strong performance in 2020, ill bet that number will increase again next year,
Will it ever be total parity? No. And it shouldnt be unless we want to accept significantly less for the TV deal, and thus see a decrease in the salary cap and strength of the code.
Spot on. And people in here were complaining loudly that they didn't expect exactly the same number of FTA games as the biggest markets, they just wanted an increase reflecting our performance on field.

Well now that's happened, we've had an increase to our FTA coverage based on our performance on field (which many people said would never happen) and people are still complaining because we don't have exactly the same number of FTA games as teams like the Broncos?? Come on now.

And I've said it many, many times now... the biggest factor influencing our sponsorship, support and membership numbers is our performance on the field. We all saw that unbelievable crowd in the grand final, we're everyone's second team now. We have another season in 2020 like 2019 and we'll have even MORE support, FTA games or not.
Who are you referring to here? I don't know who was saying we should get the same number of FTA games as the Broncos.
I understand that some teams rate better than others but if the NRL wants a better competition it doesn't make sense for one side to get 18 games on FTA and others one or two. There is absolutely no good reason that every team can't get a minimum of about 10 games with the better rating sides still getting slightly more than others.

I'm happy to see us getting more but Titans and Warriors deserve more than 2 games.

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How do they...

Have a salary cap to "even the playing field"... but allow unlimited TPA's and private golf games...

How do they then rationalise having this in their Mission Statement, "Recognising the significance and profile of Rugby League in communities all across Australia"... but give one team 900% more FTA coverage than another team. Or 75% of matches covered vs <10% or however you'd like to represent it. How is that "fostering and developing" the game in those other, unfavoured areas?

The NRL didn't do us any favours, all they did is not kick us in the nuts for the 10th year in a row and kicked some other team in the nuts instead. Meanwhile, they did something else to the nuts of the Broncos for the 15th year running.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Woodgers »

Botman wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:27 pm
Northern Raider wrote: October 29, 2019, 12:22 pm
The Rickman wrote: October 29, 2019, 11:56 am Haha people ARE still complaining about our increased FTA exposure!

Scenes!!
Increase yes but it's easy to increase when you've had bugger all prior to that. Statistically you can't paint it either way. 50% more than last year is the positive spin. Grand Finalists being one of the worst represented teams on FTA is the negative one.

The distribution is actually better than usual this year. Problem is it's still pretty ordinary. It's like a slightly better smelling ****.
Yeah but we're a small market. This is the same as every league in the world who are doing their schedules... the leagues try to provide SOME level of parity, but the reason the players earn the money they do is because of the billion dollar TV deal... that money doesnt come free, the league has to appease it's TV partners by giving them teams and markets that they can make money off through advertising

1/3 of our games will be on FTA, if we back up 2019 with another strong performance in 2020, ill bet that number will increase again next year,
Will it ever be total parity? No. And it shouldnt be unless we want to accept significantly less for the TV deal, and thus see a decrease in the salary cap and strength of the code.
Agree.

So essentially the crux of your argument here is that due to the off field factors and the politics and the way the game organises itself, that there will essentially always be teams that are favoured more than others due to their commercial values. Others might refer to that as haves and have nots.

It’s always been the case. This isn’t news.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Botman »

We're talking about different things, Woodgers.
Always have been.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Woodgers »

The main reason why we are considered to have a ‘soft’ draw is because of the commercial interests. We make the GF and are still lumped in with the clubs considered least commercially viable or popular, and I don’t think that is an ‘up yours’ to the Raiders, it’s simply a game trying to maximise big games, derbies and profits and we’re just not considered commercially viable. We’ve landed ‘easier’ teams because of the profit afterthought and I’ll take it but anyone trying to dress this up as the NRL doing us favours is in need of some reality.

The administration is what it is and what I’ve been saying the entire time that the game is administered on and off the field on these biases. Off the field far worse than on btw, but it comes into it at times.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Woodgers »

Botman wrote: October 29, 2019, 9:20 pm We're talking about different things, Woodgers.
Always have been.
No we haven’t. We haven’t at all. Your entire thing I quoted speaks to what I’ve been trying to say which has been consistently referred to as a conspiracy theory.

You’ve got some sidestep for a former hooker sometimes! 😆
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.
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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

Our draw has been incorrectly labelled as "easy" as the analysis I did and NRL.com did above.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Lui_Bon »

Am I right in thinking that we still will have never played at Bankwest Stadium?
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-TW-
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by -TW- »

This could be solved by having an independent host broadcaster (similar to supercars media) who then on-sells games to broadcasters

Every Raiders game could be sold to 9 Canberra, every Knights game to NBN, every Broncos game to 9 Brisbane, cowboys to WIN Townsville etc.

Then fox can have an overarching agreement to show every game

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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

Lui_Bon wrote: October 29, 2019, 9:56 pm Am I right in thinking that we still will have never played at Bankwest Stadium?
We played the Tigers there this year.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by Lui_Bon »

greeneyed wrote: October 29, 2019, 11:02 pm
Lui_Bon wrote: October 29, 2019, 9:56 pm Am I right in thinking that we still will have never played at Bankwest Stadium?
We played the Tigers there this year.
Ha! Must have been memorable....

Yes thanks. I had forgotten. Probably good that we won't ever play the Eels there!
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-TW-
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by -TW- »

We won 28-0, was pretty memorable

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greeneyed
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 NRL draw

Post by greeneyed »

That game was awesome. Crowd was fantastic, the Raiders crowd.
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