2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
7
33%
Raiders 1-12
9
43%
Rabbitohs 1-12
4
19%
Rabbitohs 13+
1
5%
 
Total votes: 21

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greeneyed
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2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday September 27, 7:50pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: ⛅ Mostly sunny. Patchy morning frost. Patchy morning fog, then mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly and light tending westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 1 Max 22

Finals Week 1 2019. Canberra Raiders 12 - Melbourne Storm 10. It was a second extraordinary win for the Canberra Raiders against the Storm in Melbourne in the space of five weeks. The Raiders had never beaten the Storm in a finals match. They had not won back-to-back against the Storm since 2012-13. They had only beaten the Storm twice in a season, once - back in 2000.

The Raiders led early, and led at half time. Of course, the Storm wrestled their way back into the match in the second half - a try and penalty goals giving them a 10-6 lead. But with just a few minutes left on the clock, a Joe Tapine tackle forced a Storm error on their own line - and then Joey Leilua and John Bateman silenced the Melbourne crowd and that bloody cow bell. Jarrod Croker's conversion from in front sealed the match.



More on Finals Week 1: As I saw it

The victory gave the Raiders the week off and delivered an historic first Preliminary Final in the nation's capital. It is the just the fourth opportunity that the Raiders have had to qualify for the Grand Final since they last appeared in a premiership decider in 1994. Their opponents, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, qualified with a 34-26 victory over Manly Sea Eagles in Week 2 of the finals.

Thirty years ago, the Canberra Raiders met the Rabbitohs in the Preliminary Final on their way to their first premiership. Can the Raiders repeat that victory?

Team changes: The Canberra Raiders have named the same team that defeated the Melbourne Storm in Week 1 of the finals - while the Rabbitohs have named the same top 17 that defeated the Manly Sea Eagles in Week 2.

Milestone: Elliott Whitehead plays his 100th match for the Canberra Raiders.

Late changes: The Raiders cut Sam Williams and Seb Kris from squad on Thursday night, leaving Ryan Sutton and Siliva Havili on the extended bench. For the Rabbitohs, James Roberts (thumb) was ruled out on Thursday, with Mawene Hiroti cut on Thursday night. Campbell Graham moves into the centres, with Corey Allan starting on the wing.

History: Canberra has won 32 of 56 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Raiders have won five of the past 10 matches - and have also won three of the past five. The Raiders lost the first match between the clubs in 2018, comprehensively beaten 42-22 at Gosford in Round 7. But in the return clash in Round 24 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders produced one of their best performances of the 2018 season, defeating the Rabbitohs 24-12. Canberra lost the only match between the clubs in the regular season in 2019, 16-12. The Raiders have won nine of the 15 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.


2019 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs


2018 Round 7 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs


2018 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs

Form: Raiders: WLWLW
Rabbitohs: WWWLW

The Rabbitohs have lost only once in their past five matches - to the Roosters, 30-6, in Week 1 of the finals. The Roosters blew South Sydney off the park in the first half, before taking their foot off the accelerator. They have had recent wins over the Broncos (22-20), Warriors (31-10), Roosters (16-10) and Sea Eagles (34-26). However, prior to that, they recorded a three game losing streak, going down to the Sharks, Storm and Bulldogs.

The Raiders had a tough run into the finals, mostly against top eight opposition. They have not won back to back since their four game winning streak between Rounds 17-20. They've posted two recent wins over the Storm and a victory over the Sharks (15-14) - but have also recorded losses to Sea Eagles (22-18) and the Warriors (24-20).

Betting: The Raiders are $1.40 favourites, with the Rabbitohs paying $2.90. The Rabbitohs have 7.5 points start in the line betting.

Stat attack: It is a battle between third (Rabbitohs) and fourth (Raiders) on the ladder - and it is no surprise that there is not much between the teams.

The Rabbitohs rank just above the Raiders for most points scored per match - but the Raiders have scored more tries per match. In some ways, the teams play similar styles. They are the two teams that make the fewest general play passes and they are the two teams that make the most dummy half runs. Neither team offloads much (Raiders rank 12th, Rabbitohs 15th).

However, the Raiders are probably more conservative in attack. They aim to control possession (ranking in the top two in the league) and complete sets. The Raiders are just below the benchmark completion rate of 80 per cent, and are in the top four teams for fewest errors. The strategy is to control the ball, and take the pressure off the defence.

No team engages the line more than the Rabbitohs (Raiders 15th), and they run a lot of supports (Rabbitohs seventh, Raiders 14th) and decoys (Rabbitohs fourth, Raiders 10th). The Rabbitohs' playmakers, Damien Cook, Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker are in the top 20 players for most line engagements. Cook is fourth in the league for try assists and second for line break assists, while Cody Walker ranks 10th for try assists and sixth for line break assists. Cook also ranks first in the NRL for dummy half runs, while Reynolds ranks second for kicking metres. Walker is the fourth in the try scoring stakes. Those three are the danger men for the Raiders.

Both teams average around the same metres gained with the ball and both teams are in the top six clubs for kick return metres. Both make around the same number of tackle breaks, while the Rabbitohs make slightly more line breaks per game. However, Canberra makes more metres per run and more post contact metres.

The Raiders have an advantage over the Rabbitohs in defence - but South Sydney isn't far off. The Raiders have conceded less than 16 points per game - the target most premiership winning teams hit - while the Rabbitohs have conceded an average of 18 points and three tries per game. Rabbitohs coach Wayne Bennett will be more concerned by the average 28 points conceded in their two finals matches. The Raiders have a better tackle efficiency percentage than the Rabbitohs - and no team has posted fewer ineffective tackles than Canberra. The Raiders rank fourth for fewest running metres conceded, the Rabbitohs seventh.

The Rabbitohs have conceded an average of just five penalties per match, the lowest in the NRL. The Raiders concede over seven. Raiders fans, however, will remember that Rabbitohs star forward repeatedly gave penalties away at the last clash with the Raiders in Canberra - five of them, without being sent to the sin bin.

Season record: Raiders 16 and 9 (finished 4th, +152)
Rabbitohs 17 and 9 (finished 3rd, +88)

Home and away: Raiders 5 of 11 at home
Rabbitohs 8 of 13 away

Against top eight opposition: Raiders have won 6 of 13
Rabbitohs have won 7 of 12

Attack: Raiders 21 points and 3.6 tries scored per match, ranked 5th (6th tries scored)
Rabbitohs 22 points and 3.4 tries scored per match, ranked 4th (8th tries scored)

Defence: Raiders 15 points and 2.6 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd
Rabbitohs 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th

Possession: Raiders 51 per cent, Rabbitohs 50 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Rabbitohs 77 per cent

Running: Raiders 1596 running metres from 176 runs (17 dummy half runs), 184 kick return metres, 473 post contact metres per match
Rabbitohs 1589 running metres from 181 runs (14 dummy half runs), 192 kick return metres, 453 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 33, Rabbitohs 32

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 4 per match

Try assists: Raiders 2, Rabbitohs 3 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 2, Rabbitohs 3 per match

Offloads: Raiders 9, Rabbitohs 8 per match

Kicking: Raiders 563 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Rabbitohs 515 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 325 made, 30 missed, 12 ineffective per match
Rabbitohs 326 made, 28 missed, 17 ineffective per match

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1363, Rabbitohs 1389 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 10, Rabbitohs 11 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Rabbitohs 5 per match

Our tip: The Raiders lost by just four points when they met the Rabbitohs earlier this year, a very tight affair. The Raiders led 6-4 at half time, with all the points coming from penalty goals. Only three tries were scored in the match. However the Raiders team that will run out on Friday night is quite a bit different to the one that lined up in Round 10. Canberra had lost their entire right edge for that game, with Joe Tapine, John Bateman, Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana all on the injury list. Sam Williams played at half for the Green Machine. It was a good performance from Canberra, given the Rabbitohs had previously lost just one game at that stage of the competition.

This will be a match that features some great clashes in the key play making positions. Josh Hodgson and Damien Cook are two of the top three hookers in the world. Jack Wighton has been a real strike weapon since moving to five eighth - and he's possibly been in better recent form than Cody Walker. Aidan Sezer - who has now made the Raiders No. 7 jersey his own - comes up against a very polished half in Adam Reynolds. The Raiders probably have the clearest advantage at fullback, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad having a break out season. Canberra's play makers will at least need to match the Rabbitohs in the spine if the Green Machine is to win.

It'll also be a big clash of the Englishmen in the forwards - a battle of Britain - with the likes of Hodgson, Elliott Whitehead and John Bateman lining up against South Sydney's Burgess brothers. This is the department where it'll be important for the Raiders to come out on top.

The Rabbitohs finished in front of the Raiders on the ladder, but their second half of the season was not as good as the first. They have shown some signs of vulnerability in their finals matches to date, particularly in defence. And if the Raiders bring their most intense defence, their best line speed, their best work in the ruck, I think the Raiders should win. I'm tipping that Canberra will do that, in front of what is likely to be a record crowd and with a Grand Final appearance on the line. Raiders by six.

What they're saying:

Ricky Stuart on the historic first Preliminary Final in Canberra: "We won't get involved in the Canberra bubble because there'll be a lot of excitement and hype. But we will not be distracted in our focus for the game at home. We've got to live in our own bubble – and that won't be the Canberra bubble. We will be professional and stick to our task in what has got us here."

Jarrod Croker on key forward and Meninga Medalist Josh Papalii: "He's been great all year for us, he was probably Queensland's best player in the Origin series and has just come on leaps and bounds this year for someone who has already played for Australia. A couple of years ago Papa would have looked at someone like Sia and now Papa is Sia."

Canberra Raiders

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Sia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine

14. Bailey Simonsson
15. Emre Guler
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Dunamis Lui

19. Ryan Sutton
20. Siliva Havili

Injury/Suspension

Michael Oldfield (Shoulder) Season
Brad Abbey (Knee) Season

South Sydney Rabbitohs

1. Adam Doueihi
2. Alex Johnston
4. Dane Gagai
5. Campbell Graham
19. Corey Allan
6. Cody Walker
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Thomas Burgess
9. Damien Cook
10. Liam Knight
11. John Sutton
12. Sam Burgess (c)
13. Cameron Murray

14. George Burgess
15. Junior Tatola
16. Ethan Lowe
17. Mark Nicholls

18. Jaydn Su'A
20. Dean Britt

Officials

Referees: Ben Cummins, Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Dave Munro, Chris Butler
Video referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersSouths

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2019 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
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raiderskater
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by raiderskater »

Game Day thread nearly a full week early? That's how to get my nerves up!
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by reptar »

raiderskater wrote:Game Day thread nearly a full week early? That's how to get my nerves up!
Is it not Tuesday yet?
Gina Riley: Oh, come on, John. That’s a bit old hat, the corrupt IOC delegate.
John Clarke: Old hat? Gina, in the scientific world when they see that something is happening again and again and again, repeatedly, they don’t call it old hat. They call it a pattern.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Lucky »

32 of 56.... you could say that they are our bunnies :P
its ours to lose.... everything points to a green machine victory.
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greeneyed
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

Lucky wrote:32 of 56.... you could say that they are our bunnies :P
its ours to lose.... everything points to a green machine victory.
Not if you look at the record since they returned to the NRL.


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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by RedRaider »

The Premiership Top 4 are playing each other in the semi finals. I am expecting 'tough defence' semi final football against Souths. Thankfully its a style of play we have been using all year. They will have a size advantage in the forwards but we will beat them for pack mobility. It is that mobility and 'will to win' which has been a hallmark of our 2019 play. If we don't get niggled off our game style, I think we will win. I don't see a score blow out either way. But I do think the Raiders will advance to the Grand Final.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by pickles »

Would be good to know when the team lists are likely to come out.

The players we had out in our last clash against the bunnies is why gives me hope that we can win this at full strength. To get so close missing so many players was an awesome effort and that was when the bunnies were playing their best footy.

Bateman is our lucky charm this season and with him on the field I feel like we’ve got this.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by PJC01 »

Nervous Wreck here!
Raiders at home we should get the rub of the green and the penalty count but somewhere deep in my brain I keep hearing a voice that says NRL want that fairytale GF
SOUTHS V ROOSTERS a cash cow, compared to roosters raiders,storm raiders,storm Souths!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

I’ll be there!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

I'm in my shed having 100 beers and all I can think about is beating Souths and how I'll cry hard when we do. I'm just so emotional lately, since beating the Storm I'm thinking..hell yeah !!

I know I'll walk out to my driveway and scream on Friday night if we win... I'll be wound up and flying off the handle..

And the best part..win or loss..get used to it !
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greeneyed
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

I'm a bit the same. I shed some tears last night when Jersey Flegg made the Grand Final. I did again today watching a video of the news from 30 years ago seeing the Civic Square fountain green etc etc. I don't know how I'm going to get through the week, let alone if the Raiders make the Grand Final!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by LimeGreenMachine »

I've already told my managers I will be going awol
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by raiderskater »

The Monday after the GF is a public holiday, so while you can volunteer to work (for double time and a half), you don't have to (and still get paid). Normally I gobble these up; they're worth an extra $300 or so to me.

This time? I've told my bosses that I will give them an answer after Friday. And if the Raiders make it, I will not be in on Monday...
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Botman »

We gotta get the job done against the Rabbits first lads. If this team rolls in here thinking about anything more than putting on it's best footy in this game. We're going to go home heart broken.

I am however very confident that if we show up and give our A- game... not even an A or A+... we'll win
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by gerg »

PigRickman wrote:We gotta get the job done against the Rabbits first lads. If this team rolls in here thinking about anything more than putting on it's best footy in this game. We're going to go home heart broken.

I am however very confident that if we show up and give our A- game... not even an A or A+... we'll win
By the sounds of it whatever the result there's going to be a lot of blubbering sissies reaching for the Kleenex. Harden up the lot of ya.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Quiet you blubbering fools don't jinx it! We've dropped our 2 biggest finals games here in recent years, Tigers and Sharks. Time to get the job done.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

greeneyed wrote: September 21, 2019, 11:08 pm
Lucky wrote:32 of 56.... you could say that they are our bunnies :P
its ours to lose.... everything points to a green machine victory.
Not if you look at the record since they returned to the NRL.


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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by -TW- »

And the common denominator?

No Jonneh Bateman

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Botman »

We're a better team 1-17. If both teams play to their best, we win.
If we play like **** and they play well, they'll win...

we're beyond the point of worrying about records and all that... this is a prelim final, both of these teams are good, both can win the title. And it'll just come down to who performs best on the day... but i take a lot of solice in the fact i beleive our margin for error is greater. If both teams play at the same level of their best, we will win.

In terms of tactics, the game for us will be won with an old cliche... winning the forward battle. If we control the middle of the field and win the ruck, it limits the impact Cook can have on the game, and limits the impact Sam Burgess has. Do that, and it goes a long way to winning the game.

Cody Walker is a bit of a wildcard too, so that'll be a challenge for the defensive line
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Would i get a ticket by the time they go on sale to the public on tuesday? I've waited 20 years for this and can't miss it. Wish i had a membership this year shame i couldn't afford it.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Lucky »

What are the odds of Sam Burgess committing an act of thuggery on a defenseless player.... i'd say about $1.01
Still gotta watch out for him cause hes the sort of player that will run for 200 meters with 5 line breaks and 15 tackle busts :cry:
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by RaiderSpark »

If we make the GF, u think Sticky will sit on sideline?
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by GreenMachine »

raiderskater wrote: September 21, 2019, 9:39 pm Game Day thread nearly a full week early? That's how to get my nerves up!
Nerves at an all time high...and it's only Monday...
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2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Sid »

GreenMachine wrote:
raiderskater wrote: September 21, 2019, 9:39 pm Game Day thread nearly a full week early? That's how to get my nerves up!
Nerves at an all time high...and it's only Monday...
I’ve been nervous about the finals all day too.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Agreed. Extremely worried.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Need members code. Would be extremely grateful and happy to tip.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Randomly told another colleague about my struggle in getting a members code thhis morning than suddenly she said her uncle was a member and would be going.. boom ! Got my two tickets
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by CJ42 »

Lucky wrote: September 22, 2019, 10:44 pm What are the odds of Sam Burgess committing an act of thuggery on a defenseless player.... i'd say about $1.01
Still gotta watch out for him cause hes the sort of player that will run for 200 meters with 5 line breaks and 15 tackle busts :cry:
against what kind of defense though?
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Turt »

I've got a blood pressure check tomorrow. It's not looking good.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day *Teams p1*

Post by greeneyed »

@TheGHRaiders

#NRLRaidersSouths Check out The GH's Game Day preview for the Preliminary Final! Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs! Team lists, history, form, stat attack, odds... all you need to know! 📚 and 📺 more here: http://ow.ly/lPAO50wnPXH

#NRL #WeAreRaiders #wearecbr
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by GreenMachine »

I have a business trip to Singapore flying out on Monday 7th October (afternoon thankfully)...I was originally scheduled to fly out Sunday!

I moved the flight 'in case' the Raiders made the GF as I'll be obliged to go to the game and get wrecked one way or another.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

@TheGHRaiders on Twitter

#NRLRaidersSouths UPDATED MATCH PREVIEW: Canberra Raiders omit Sam Williams and Seb Kris from their squad to face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in the Preliminary Final on Friday night. Latest squads, weather, odds: http://ow.ly/wHvC50wrVOe

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by EJ »

Game day, you *****!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

Game day!!! Go the Raiders!!!!!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by 1992 »

Game day you Greta Thunberg supporters!
WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP IT'S BEEN
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