2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews *Teams p1*

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
10
43%
Raiders 1-12
9
39%
Rabbitohs 1-12
3
13%
Rabbitohs 13+
1
4%
 
Total votes: 23

Boomercm
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Boomercm » September 22, 2019, 3:07 pm

Lucky wrote:
September 21, 2019, 9:32 pm
:rant
tonight started off so good with that prick eddie mcguire and collingwood getting knocked out.... now the only thing stopping another cheating storm grubby grand final is the mighty raiders, souths, or the roosters. just shows how good we are traveling, knocking off the cheating scumbags twice now.... also shows how pathetic the broncos are getting smashed by parra :clap:
How good was that!

I have a GWS and Raiders multi taken pre-season, $30 into 19k. I'm trying to keep a lid on it all...

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gangrenous
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gangrenous » September 22, 2019, 3:49 pm


89_90_94_??
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by 89_90_94_?? » September 22, 2019, 3:53 pm

It's weeks like this that I hate the fact I live in Darwin. With flights costing an arms and leg to get to Canberra, not to mention no direct flights..... at least I got to watch the boys play here this year and was in Melbourne a month ago for that epic come back. For everyone attending the game, I want my TV speakers to blow!!!

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by greeneyed » September 22, 2019, 5:53 pm

South Sydney Rabbitohs' serial offender looks NRL gift horse in the mouth

Kangaroo court? Kangaroo caught more like. Well it would be if he was an Australian. And it's a case of better late than never.

Finally Sam Burgess's aggressive playing style is catching up with him. But the South Sydney enforcer doesn't like it.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by greeneyed » September 22, 2019, 5:54 pm

I don't think we should be complaining too much about the sin binnings... I have an awful feeling that the sin bin crackdown might yet cost us severely... Personally, I think the sin binnings have gone way too far.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gangrenous » September 22, 2019, 6:34 pm

I think they’re nailing it.

For too long NRL has rewarded the teams that can cheat best with success.

Don’t like being sin binned? Play by the rules. It’s not hard.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Roger Kenworthy » September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm

gangrenous wrote:
September 22, 2019, 6:34 pm
I think they’re nailing it.

For too long NRL has rewarded the teams that can cheat best with success.

Don’t like being sin binned? Play by the rules. It’s not hard.
Nailed it. Teams have been rewarded for cynical professional fouls in the past, which has impacted the spectacle. I'm all for the sin bin addressing these trends. 5 minute bin would be better for professional fouls though. 10 minutes for repeat binnings or foul play.
Last edited by Roger Kenworthy on September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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gangrenous
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2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gangrenous » September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm

Actually I’m going again. Gould is whinging about this “on behalf of the fans” and it’s Bull.

Allowing teams to gain benefits from grubby and illegal tactics have given us premiers like Sharks, Storm and Roosters. Across them we have various drugs, salary cap, wrestling, deliberate penalty strategies. They’ve had a dour impact on the game.

Please feel free to bin players who break the rules intentionally or commit grub acts. Might do more to promote entertaining and expansive football than you expect.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by BadnMean » September 22, 2019, 7:06 pm

Refs are ready to use the bin since this 2nd half of the season and it has carried into semi's footy.

I'm not against it. Ideally its 13 v 13 but I'd rather seen a binning than repeat dirty play or professional fouling be rewarded. At times, that will be against your own team- you just have to hope that in general, it is happening to all teams or across matches. It seems to be being applied. Refs will get the odd one wrong. There will be marginal calls to debate of course- it is a subjective ruling in many cases. I can live with that. But like Gangrenous I don't want to watch foul play win because it forms the basis of "good" or "smart" defence.

Just quietly the Raiders have dealt with having 12 on the field as well as any team could this year. It can happen to us too but it's no reason to throw the towel in.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by greeneyed » September 22, 2019, 7:27 pm

Then and now: 30 years of history is driving the Canberra Raiders

The Canberra Raiders have been in a quizzical mood all year, with coach Ricky Stuart sending his players back to school on 1989. That premiership year, the Raiders' forward pack was under-rated and Glen Lazarus says the same is true of today's pack.

"People when they say who's got the best forward pack they look straight away at the Roosters, or Melbourne or maybe Souths - even Manly - but people forget that three of them are in the England team.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Boomercm » September 22, 2019, 7:30 pm

Roger Kenworthy wrote:
September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm
gangrenous wrote:
September 22, 2019, 6:34 pm
I think they’re nailing it.

For too long NRL has rewarded the teams that can cheat best with success.

Don’t like being sin binned? Play by the rules. It’s not hard.
Nailed it. Teams have been rewarded for cynical professional fouls in the past, which has impacted the spectacle. I'm all for the sin bin addressing these trends. 5 minute bin would be better for professional fouls though. 10 minutes for repeat binnings or foul play.
The real professional teams do not infringe in a way that they get binned. We got lucky last time around when Croker should have been binned. I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere. The most recent spate of bins could have easily been as a result of a directive that he should have been sent...

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Boomercm » September 22, 2019, 7:32 pm

greeneyed wrote:
September 22, 2019, 5:54 pm
I don't think we should be complaining too much about the sin binnings... I have an awful feeling that the sin bin crackdown might yet cost us severely... Personally, I think the sin binnings have gone way too far.
agree. I think we were lucky in that first finals game to re bin. Won't happen twice.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by BadnMean » September 22, 2019, 7:37 pm

There's actually a really big selection for this game- Ricky has more deserving, legitimate playing contenders than he does positions in the 17, let alone to start. There's a couple of really big questions. I'm curious to know how the GH wants to go.

1. CNK
2. Cotric
3. Croker
4. Leilua
5. Rapana
6. Wighton
7. Sezer
8. Papa
9. Hodgo
10. Sia
11. Whitehead
12. Bateman
13. Tapine

14. Simonsen
15. Horspower
16. Lui
17. Guler

The contentious ones...

Simo v Rapa/Cotric. I've still got Rapana ahead for his understanding with Joey and his experience ('16, Internationals). But he's not the threat he was. I'm hoping the extra week sees whatever is holding him back from top race and agility fix up a bit but by this stage of the season he's clearly carrying something chronic.

Cotric I think we have to back again. He's made Origin- a big step- he was looking the goods last week before his injury. And I think at this stage of a career, if you don't back him for finals, you lose the young player and I don't think we are there yet.

Simo absolutely makes the bench in modern footy with the HIA liable to affect any back at any stage and he's done almost everything humanly possible to break into the team. It's only the fact he's 20 and in his first year of FG that he's not in. By next year if he's playing like this he absolutely needs to be in the team.

Start Papa and Sia or split? Sia leading our defensive effort early doors absolutely worked. This option actuals involves considering not just these two but who leads the line speed off the bench if Sia is off?

I think Lui (recent drops/strips aside) is capable this year of stepping up and doing that. He's been playing with far greater intensity this year. Hors is good at hitting them and keeping them hit too. I'll back them to do it, with Papa playing longer minutes and Lui and Sia just going hell for leather while they are on. It might help Lui focus on the basics and forget the fancy strips if you give him the role of just getting the team off the line and meeting the opposition hard.

But I want Papa starting v Rabbitohs and I think he will. It was a masterstroke by Sticky to rattle Melbourne- make them see something different and get in their heads a bit, essential to beating a machine style team like that- but no reason to go to the well twice with that one.

Guler vs Sutton. So far as I am aware there was no injury story come out about Sutton not playing. Just Sticky went with Guler. And he delivered. So you pick him again. Sutton has arguably been a bit off the pace (not poor, just not quite good) back end of the year and isn't suited to the bench.

Again this involves other players- Tapine showed exactly why he's worth persisting with. He's got another level he can hit, things he can do which unsettle a team or can turn a game in attack or defence. For years we lamented Fensom's lack of impact. Well Smokin' Joe is the exact opposite. Short of a Tapau or Lolo, this is what you get instead. And it can win you big games.

Sutton doesn't get to start just because he's pants off the bench. And if he doesn't start, he doesn't make the team.

Ricky backed Guler last week. And he delivered. Souths have another whopping big pack. Blokes over 1.9m and 115-120kg. It does help to have one of your own in the pack in that case, and he moves well too. So you pick him again.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gangrenous » September 22, 2019, 7:48 pm

Boomercm wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
September 22, 2019, 5:54 pm
I don't think we should be complaining too much about the sin binnings... I have an awful feeling that the sin bin crackdown might yet cost us severely... Personally, I think the sin binnings have gone way too far.
agree. I think we were lucky in that first finals game to re bin. Won't happen twice.
I think that’s a good point. I hope the coaching staff impress that upon the team. The NRL won’t want to come out and say Raiders should have been binned again while copping from other teams for supposed light sin bins (but in my view perfectly deserved).

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Botman » September 22, 2019, 7:57 pm

I dont think any of that **** matters. If we dont do anything bin worthy, we're going to be fine. If we do, we'll cope what we deserve
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GO;

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gergreg » September 22, 2019, 7:59 pm

Boomercm wrote:
Roger Kenworthy wrote:
September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm
gangrenous wrote:
September 22, 2019, 6:34 pm
I think they’re nailing it.

For too long NRL has rewarded the teams that can cheat best with success.

Don’t like being sin binned? Play by the rules. It’s not hard.
Nailed it. Teams have been rewarded for cynical professional fouls in the past, which has impacted the spectacle. I'm all for the sin bin addressing these trends. 5 minute bin would be better for professional fouls though. 10 minutes for repeat binnings or foul play.
The real professional teams do not infringe in a way that they get binned. We got lucky last time around when Croker should have been binned. I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere. The most recent spate of bins could have easily been as a result of a directive that he should have been sent...
Yes. In Annesley's weekly he did say that both Whitehead and Croker should have been sinbinned. I've seen plenty of tackles like Croker's which didn't even get a penalty with the referee standing there screaming 'milking'. So I think it would have been a harsh binning.

Whitehead would have been unlucky because he fell for a dummy and took the player out on suspicion. But that is probably no excuse and he should have been sinbinned.

Consistency is all any fan, and I'm sure the players want. I thought the Jake sinbinning was harsh but on reflection with consideration of the other sinbins over the w/e it was the right call.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by zim » September 22, 2019, 8:54 pm

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Sia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliot Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine

14. Bailey Simonsson
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Emre Guler

Can't see Papalii benching himself after the week off so he's starting with Lui back to the bench. Guler didn't let us down against the storm so he holds his spot.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by greeneyed » September 22, 2019, 8:58 pm

Jack from the brink: Wighton reflects on being given 'second chance'

Jack Wighton stood nervously inside the AIS Arena as Mick Ennis interviewed him this week during the club's Mal Meninga Medal presentation.

"You must be pinching yourself," Ennis said to Wighton, as silence fell across the room. "What a 12 months it has been. To think where you were this time last year.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14280


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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Botman » September 22, 2019, 9:01 pm

I dont think Papa benched himself, that was a tactical move no?
i thought bringing Papalii off the bench worked really well against the Storm, and for the same reasons it worked there i could see it being deployed again. I could see us opening with Sia and Lui again, two really low impact but super sound defensive players and then keeping Papa out of the heavy stuff early and then letting him come on and dominate the middle
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Billy Walker » September 22, 2019, 9:01 pm

BnM - I suspect the wingers will be Raps and Cotric and believe Simmonsen will be on the bench. I think Guler might nudge out Sutton but wouldn’t be upset either way. The big question for me is whether Papa starts. It was a bit of a master stroke against Storm holding Papa back but not sure what is the best way to go this time

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by gangrenous » September 22, 2019, 9:16 pm

PigRickman wrote:I dont think Papa benched himself, that was a tactical move no?
There were articles during the week suggesting that it was the case.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Coastalraider » September 22, 2019, 9:28 pm

gangrenous wrote:
September 22, 2019, 9:16 pm
PigRickman wrote:I dont think Papa benched himself, that was a tactical move no?
There were articles during the week suggesting that it was the case.
Yep and I heard some stuff on podcasts. - cant remember if it was Kenty or Matty Johns. Seems he get a bit of fatigue after single handedly running over the warriors,
And thought he would be more effective after the sting of the first 20 minutes was gone.

The good sign is that he and the coaching staff had faith in the rotation to pull it off.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Botman » September 22, 2019, 9:34 pm

Ok, fair enough. I missed that chatter.
Still by hook or by crook, it worked really well for balance imo. I wont be stunned if Stick runs it back, but then in prelims, starting strong is such a big thing. So maybe you just dance with the girl that brought you.

interesting decision facing Stuart
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Hong Kong Raider » September 22, 2019, 9:59 pm

Ricky needs to bite the bullet and give the kicking duties to Sezer. This will be a close one and we need to go up in multiples of 6, and also kick our penalties.

Bellamy bit the bullet by benching Chambers

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by pickles » September 22, 2019, 10:03 pm

In his interview on NRL 360 last week Hodgson said that the forward pack took a lot of ownership over the rotation and who would start and who would come off the bench and that the suggestion had come from them. Obviously it would require the green light from Stuart but it’s an interesting approach.

Both storm and bunnies have big packs so a similar strategy could work well but I’d say the interchanges we ended up with weren’t exactly what was mapped or before the game.

Guler did a great job and deserves to keep his spot but given the HIA rule and the minutes our middle can play it must be tempting to have Simonson and havilli on the bench just in case.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Botman » September 22, 2019, 10:09 pm

Hong Kong Raider wrote:
September 22, 2019, 9:59 pm
Ricky needs to bite the bullet and give the kicking duties to Sezer. This will be a close one and we need to go up in multiples of 6, and also kick our penalties.

Bellamy bit the bullet by benching Chambers
Regression to the mean.
It's a worrry, no questions but im an analytics person. I dont believe Croker woke up one morning and forgot how to kick... I think he'll have a good day because that's how this stuff USUALLY works, you have a slump and kick at 50% and then go out and kick 2-3 games at 100% and the next result ends up where it should be.. but the concerns are fair. He's well off his game in this front and missing an early "gimmie" could be... problematic.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
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GO;

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Hong Kong Raider » September 22, 2019, 10:19 pm

Don't think we would be regressing if Sezer kicks - his career percentage is 82%. Croker usually is a good kicker and a a good kicker under pressure as well (one game against Manly rings a bell when he kicked a penalty to bring it to Golden Point) but I'm worried about his form. I recall seeing his stats from both sides - they were under 50%.

Sezer is a good kicker (see below)

Australian League Matches - By Year
Team Years App T G GK % FG Pts W L D Win %
Gold Coast Titans NRL 2012 18 4 7 / 8 87.50% 1 31 9 9 0 50.00% Match list
Gold Coast Titans NRL 2013 22 1 75 / 88 85.23% 2 156 10 12 0 45.45% Match list
Gold Coast Titans NRL 2014 13 4 23 / 27 85.19% 1 63 5 8 0 38.46% Match list
Gold Coast Titans NRL 2015 18 3 51 / 65 78.46% 1 115 7 11 0 38.89% Match list
Canberra NRL 2016 24 5 5 / 6 83.33% - 30 17 7 0 70.83% Match list
Canberra NRL 2017 24 4 12 / 16 75.00% - 40 11 13 0 45.83% Match list
Canberra NRL 2018 18 2 6 / 8 75.00% 1 21 8 10 0 44.44% Match list
Canberra NRL 2019 16 3 - 4 16 11 5 0 68.75% Match list
Overall 2012-2019 153 26 179 / 218 82.11% 10 472 78 75 0 50.98% Match list

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by greeneyed » September 22, 2019, 11:20 pm

Hasn’t been a regular goal kicker for four years, kicked a handful each season from a handful of attempts, and now you’re telling us Stuart should change goal kickers in a Preliminary Final? Please!
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Billy Walker » September 22, 2019, 11:56 pm

greeneyed wrote:
September 22, 2019, 11:20 pm
Hasn’t been a regular goal kicker for four years, kicked a handful each season from a handful of attempts, and now you’re telling us Stuart should change goal kickers in a Preliminary Final? Please!
Wouldn’t be a smart move whatsoever! At most you might consider throwing the tee to a back up kicker if your first choice has shanked 3 or 4 easy kicks but I can’t even see that happening. Unless JC is injured or fatigued he will be kicking.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by EVH » September 23, 2019, 12:59 am

Smith kicked 1/5 last night...it gets real windy in Melbourne this time of year.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by GreenMachine » September 23, 2019, 6:19 am

gangrenous wrote:
September 22, 2019, 7:03 pm
Actually I’m going again. Gould is whinging about this “on behalf of the fans” and it’s Bull.

Allowing teams to gain benefits from grubby and illegal tactics have given us premiers like Sharks, Storm and Roosters. Across them we have various drugs, salary cap, wrestling, deliberate penalty strategies. They’ve had a dour impact on the game.

Please feel free to bin players who break the rules intentionally or commit grub acts. Might do more to promote entertaining and expansive football than you expect.
100%
I cannot stand nor buy into the Gould “ making the game soft” rhetoric.
Professional fouls need to be punished to the full extent.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by TongueFTW » September 23, 2019, 6:25 am

We definitely shouldn’t change Croker at this stage of the season, but his drop in kicking performance over the season is a concern as I believe it might be related to his knee injuries on that leg. He is kicking at 73% this season, which is well down on his career average.

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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Northern Raider » September 23, 2019, 7:32 am

TongueFTW wrote:
September 23, 2019, 6:25 am
We definitely shouldn’t change Croker at this stage of the season, but his drop in kicking performance over the season is a concern as I believe it might be related to his knee injuries on that leg. He is kicking at 73% this season, which is well down on his career average.
Observing his body language it looks like a confidence issue. He's been an 80%+ kicker for many years, even in a team that scores the majority of tries out wide. Back then he would be expecting every kick to go over. If he missed he'd be cranky at himself for missing. This year when he misses his demeanor is more of disappointment. Subtle difference but a large one from a psychological perspective. Feels like he's letting the team down rather than not achieving his own high standards.

Realistically 73% is not great but it's also not terrible. You generally don't look to change kickers with that conversion rate. Even if we did it should be noted that Sezer has kicked at 76% for the Raiders in the times he's taken over. Not exactly a big upgrade.

In summary I wish Croker was in better form with the boot however I wouldn't be making any changes coming into a preliminary final.
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Sid » September 23, 2019, 9:34 am

This has been unfamiliar territory, heading to a prelim home game as favourites, I really haven’t known how to fan this past week
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Re: 2019 Preliminary Final V Rabbitohs: Teams and Previews

Post by Northern Raider » September 23, 2019, 10:00 am

Sid wrote:
September 23, 2019, 9:34 am
This has been unfamiliar territory, heading to a prelim home game as favourites, I really haven’t known how to fan this past week
We've handled favouritism a lot better this year than previously. There's a completely different mindset from the team. Us fans could take a lead from that.
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