2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
5
45%
Raiders 1-12
2
18%
Draw
1
9%
Warriors 1-12
1
9%
Warriors 13+
2
18%
 
Total votes: 11

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greeneyed
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2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 3, 2019, 1:35 pm

2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 7 September 3:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 12:30pm
Katrina Fanning Shield Grand Final: Yass Magpies V Valley Dragons, 12:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Wind easing. Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the day. Chance of any rain: 30 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm Min 2 Max 12

Round 24 2019. Canberra Raiders 15 - Cronulla Sharks 14. It was the most extraordinary of golden point victories for the Canberra Raiders in a cauldron. It was a sell out crowd at Cronulla, the final home game ever for the Sharks' captain Paul Gallen, and a match the Sharks had to win to secure a finals spot. The Sharks were primed to be at their most intense for their captain. They dominated possession and territory in the first half - and dominated the scoreboard. The Sharks scored three tries and held the Raiders scoreless. At times Canberra looked weary, after three tough encounters against top four opposition. But in an epic second half, the Raiders came back, scoring twice. And in the end, Aidan Sezer's extraordinary third field goal of the match sealed it for Canberra - and sealed a top four finish for the Green Machine.



More on Round 24: As I saw it

The Raiders now return to Canberra Stadium for the final game of the regular season, a meeting with the New Zealand Warriors.

Team changes: The Canberra Raiders are resting a number of players from the match, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jordan Rapana, Sia Soliola and John Bateman all given a week off. Bailey Simonsson will start at fullback in place of Nicoll-Klokstad, while Michael Oldfield has been included on the wing. Sebastian Kris replaces Jordan Rapana - who is also set for a week off, named on the extended bench. Dunamis Lui will start at prop in place of Sia Soliola, while Hudson Young replaces John Bateman. Emre Guler and JJ Collins have been brought in on the bench. Joe Tapine (ribs) has been named on an extended bench, but will not play unless fully fit.

Peta Hiku (shoulder) and Patrick Herbert (quadriceps) have been ruled out of the Warriors' team through injury. Adam Pompey and Blake Ayshford come in as the starting centres. Bunty Afoa and Adam Keighran come onto the bench, replacing Sam Lisone and Chanel Harris-Tavita (ruled out with ligament damage).

Late changes: Joe Tapine (ribs) and Sam Williams were omitted from the Canberra Raiders' squad of 21 on Friday afternoon, while Hayze Perham and Leivaha Pulu were cut from the Warriors squad.

History: Canberra has won 22 of 41 games against the Warriors. The Raiders have won three of the past five matches between the clubs - and five of the last 10. Canberra lost both contests in 2018. In Round 3 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders suffered a heart breaking, last gasp, one point loss. They followed that up in Round 25 with a 20-16 loss at Mt Smart. Just a little over a month ago, Canberra came away with the competition points, winning 46-12 in Round 20 in Auckland.


2019 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors


2018 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors


2018 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors

The Raiders have won 12 of 16 games played at Canberra Stadium - and, including the match played at Manuka Oval, 12 of the 17 games played in Canberra.

Form: Raiders: WLWLW
Warriors: LWLLL

The Warriors lost to the South Sydney Rabbitohs, 31-10, in their last outing, and are now on a three game losing streak. They have had other recent losses to the Sharks (42-16), the Roosters (42-6) and the Raiders. However, they produced a stunning 24-16 upset against the Sea Eagles in Round 21. The Raiders have won seven of their past 10 games.

Betting: The Raiders are $1.26 favourites, with the Warriors paying $3.75. The Warriors have 10.0 points start in the line betting. The Warriors' odds have shortened after teams were named.

Stat attack: It is a battle between third and 14th on the ladder - but given the Raiders' history against the Warriors, this is not a match that they can afford to take lightly.

The Raiders attack has not exactly been firing on all cylinders and they now rank fourth for points scored and fifth for tries scored - but that's still well ahead of the Warriors.

Nevertheless, the Warriors do have some dangerous attacking players. Warriors winger Ken Maumalo ranks equal second on the top try scorers list (17). Warriors fullback Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ranks first for total running metres and Maumalo second. Maumalo ranks first in the NRL for post contact metres, while fullback Tuivasa-Sheck ranks fifth. Maumalo also ranks third in the NRL for line breaks (16), while Tuivasa-Sheck is just outside the top 10 players, with 13 for the year. Tuivasa-Sheck is second only to James Tedesco for tackle breaks. The Raiders have their own metre eater, of course, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ranked fourth in the NRL and first for kick return metres.

The Warriors throw the ball around much more than the Raiders. Canberra ranks last for general play passes, while the Warriors are fourth in the NRL for offloads. In the past, that's a style that the Raiders have had trouble shutting down. But Canberra's defence in 2019 is much improved.

The Raiders now have the third best defence in the competition, after the Storm and the Roosters. Canberra has conceded just over 15 points per game in 2019, compared with 24 for the Warriors. The Raiders have a better effective tackle rate than the Warriors, and no team in the NRL has conceded fewer ineffective tackles than the Raiders. To boot, the Warriors give up lots more running metres than the Raiders (Warriors rank sixth, Raiders 14th).

The Raiders' kicking game has fallen away a little in recent weeks, and they now rank fifth for total kicks and kick metres. When they do kick on Saturday, they'll want to find the grass or touchline, rather than the dangerous Warriors' back three.

Season record: Raiders 15 and 8 (3rd, +154)
Warriors 8 and 14, 1 draw (14th, -145)

Home and away: Raiders 5 of 10 at home
Warriors 3 of 10 away

Against top eight opposition: Raiders have won 5 of 12
Warriors have won 2 of 13

Attack: Raiders 22 points and 3.7 tries scored per match, ranked 4th
Warriors 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th

Defence: Raiders 15 points and 2.6 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd
Warriors 24 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 14th

Possession: Raiders 52 per cent, Warriors 49 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Warriors 78 per cent

Running: Raiders 1604 running metres from 178 runs (17 dummy half runs), 185 kick return metres, 474 post contact metres per match
Warriors 1562 running metres from 175 runs (10 dummy half runs), 167 kick return metres, 474 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 33, Warriors 29

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Warriors 4 per match

Try assists: Raiders 2, Warriors 2 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 2, Warriors 2 per match

Offloads: Raiders 9, Warriors 12 per match

Kicking: Raiders 573 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Warriors 491 kicking metres from 18 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 327 made, 29 missed, 12 ineffective per match
Warriors 359 made, 34 missed, 17 ineffective per match 410

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1367, Warriors 1442 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 10, Warriors 10 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Warriors 6 per match

Our tip: Even if the Raiders lose this game, the Raiders should still finish in the top four. A fifth placed finish for Canberra is "mathematically" possible. The Raiders would have to lose, while the Rabbitohs would need to beat the Roosters and the Sea Eagles would need to win against the Eels. But not only that, the Raiders would need to lose by a massive margin, and the Sea Eagles would need to win by a massive margin - given Canberra's points differential is 88 points ahead of Manly.

Given the Raiders have very likely secured a top four finish, coach Ricky Stuart has taken the opportunity to rest four players from last week's top 17. At full strength - or at least close to full strength - I would have said that the Raiders should win this match by a good margin. If the team goes through their processes, lays the platform with hard work up front, and follow the game, I think the Raiders can still win. But, given the substantial team changes, I'm much less confident about the result. I'll tip the Raiders by four - but I won't at all be surprised by a Warriors upset.

What they're saying:

Ricky Stuart: "We haven’t done anything yet. We’ve made the top four which is a fantastic achievement for a club that was not expected to make the eight. But we haven’t done anything. A new competition starts in two weeks' time."

Jarrod Croker: "You can't [take the foot off the accelerator] against the Warriors because they're the sort of side that can come out and put a side to the sword really quickly."

Canberra Raiders

1. Bailey Simonsson
2. Michael Oldfield
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Nick Cotric
5. Sebastian Kris
6. Jack Wighton
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton

14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. JJ Collins

20. Jordan Rapana
21. Tom Starling

New Zealand Warriors

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (C)
2. David Fusitu’a
3. Adam Pompey
4. Blake Ayshford
5. Ken Maumalo
6. Kodi Nikorima
7. Blake Green
8. Agnatius Paasi
9. Issac Luke
10. Leeson Ah Mau
11. Adam Blair
12. Isaiah Papali’i
13. Jazz Tevaga

14. Lachlan Burr
15. Bunty Afoa
16. Ligi Sao
17. Adam Keighran

18. Josh Curran
20. Taane Milne

Officials

Referees: Matt Cecchin, Adam Cassidy
Sideline Officials: Tim Alouani-Roby, Rickey McFarlane
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersWarriors

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2019 #FromAllAngles

NSW Cup team: Click here

Jersey Flegg team: Click here

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greeneyed
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 3, 2019, 5:07 pm

Game Day preview updated for squads and officials.

@TheGHRaiders on Twitter

#NRLRaidersWarriors Check out The GH's Round 25 Game Day preview for Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors! Squads, officials, team changes, history, form, odds, stat attack... all you need to know!

📚 and 📺 more here: http://ow.ly/XD0R50vUdtI

#NRL #WeAreRaiders #wearecbr
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Lucky » September 3, 2019, 7:00 pm

Will this be the 1st ever season where the club has gone all year without losing 13+
I know thats a regular thing for the storm and roosters, but for us its one hell of an achievement :clap: (assuming we dont lose to the warriors by 13+ this week hehe)

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greeneyed
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 6, 2019, 9:53 am

UPDATED MATCH PREVIEW: Ricky Stuart announced on Friday morning that Joe Tapine (ribs) will have another week off and will not play on Saturday.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=33596
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 6, 2019, 3:40 pm

@TheGHRaiders on Twitter

UPDATED MATCH PREVIEW: Joe Tapine and Sam Williams omitted from the Canberra Raiders squad of 21 to face the New Zealand Warriors. Latest weather, odds, more: http://ow.ly/k4YG50vYHaW

#NRL #WeAreRaiders #wearecbr
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raiderskater
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » September 6, 2019, 10:31 pm

You all have a massive time, cheer really loudly, and enjoy watching our lads towel the Warriors up.

I'll be sitting in an ice rink judging.
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Coastalraider » September 7, 2019, 5:03 am

Game day legends!!!!!!!!

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simo
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by simo » September 7, 2019, 5:52 am

5:15 wake up this morning because our daughter is too excited for her first daddyball game.
Dont delete this GE

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1992
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by 1992 » September 7, 2019, 6:06 am

Let's gone Raiders.
WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP IT'S BEEN

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite » September 7, 2019, 6:13 am

Morning fellow Tijuana Toads!

Game Day! Caaarn Raiders Belt the Bro's!

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pickles
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by pickles » September 7, 2019, 6:46 am

Game day! Time to get out there and earn third place! Let’s finish the regular season on a winning note!

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by julian87 » September 7, 2019, 7:10 am

Kris on the sting doesn’t make sense unless Stuart has made his mind up that Leilua isn’t playing finals and Cotric is our right centre. Kris does not look suited to wing at all. It’s a specialist position where there’s no hiding and I’m pretty worried about him playing there tbh.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » September 7, 2019, 8:01 am

It's on..

Shed door up at 11-30am.

Beers, beers,beers,footy+beers,beers,beers, pass out !

There's my Satd !!
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
I am not an alcoholic, I'm a binge drinker lacking opportunity..

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by T_R » September 7, 2019, 8:47 am

What a day! Under 12s prelim final, under 13s prelim final, Raiders into random rugby internationals.

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Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » September 7, 2019, 8:53 am

No injuries, no charges. Result is irrelevant
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raiderskater
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » September 7, 2019, 9:45 am

No-one get hurt or do anything stupid, but I disagree the result is irrelevant. We win today and win well and go into the finals on a roll.
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

cat
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by cat » September 7, 2019, 9:56 am

The wind today is incredible!

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » September 7, 2019, 10:03 am

How windy is it ?
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
I am not an alcoholic, I'm a binge drinker lacking opportunity..

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Dr Zaius
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Dr Zaius » September 7, 2019, 10:05 am

Quite windy
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RIP Greenbits: 2007-2014

raiderskater
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » September 7, 2019, 10:13 am

cat wrote:
September 7, 2019, 9:56 am
The wind today is incredible!

Sent from my SM-G950F using The Greenhouse mobile app powered by Tapatalk
RIP the kickers today.
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Dr Zaius » September 7, 2019, 10:15 am

It's going to suck for the fullbacks
RIP Greenbits: 2007-2014

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-TW-
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by -TW- » September 7, 2019, 10:17 am

It's not usually that bad on field, seeing how sunk in the ground is

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » September 7, 2019, 10:26 am

raiderskater wrote:
September 7, 2019, 9:45 am
No-one get hurt or do anything stupid, but I disagree the result is irrelevant. We win today and win well and go into the finals on a roll.
Can't really say what value a 2 game "roll" brings come finals time. An comfortable win against average opposition isn't going to give them any real boost. If anything it might let them fall back into a comfort zone.
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by cat » September 7, 2019, 10:27 am

-PJ- wrote:How windy is it ?
There are white horse on the lake, and the trees are doing that bendy thing like those wind sock people

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » September 7, 2019, 10:41 am

Perfect op to do your washing eh cat ?

Won't take long to dry..
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
I am not an alcoholic, I'm a binge drinker lacking opportunity..

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greeneyed
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 7, 2019, 10:51 am

That wind is incredible out there... yet not as bad as yesterday afternoon when the front came through and I was walking back in wind and rain from the lake! At least the sun is shining.
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » September 7, 2019, 10:53 am

Back 3 for each team can expect plenty of high balls then.
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Chicka's shoe » September 7, 2019, 10:59 am

How's the ticket sitch? I'm coming down this arvo
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » September 7, 2019, 11:03 am

Chicka's shoe wrote:
September 7, 2019, 10:59 am
How's the ticket sitch? I'm coming down this arvo
You'll be right. Warriors don't draw many people.
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by cat » September 7, 2019, 11:04 am

cat wrote:
-PJ- wrote:How windy is it ?
There are white horse on the lake, and the trees are doing that bendy thing like those wind sock people

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I do have a lot to do, shame its all in Sydney lol.
And the reason we need to win, cant do the housework if I'm in Melbourne Image

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cat
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by cat » September 7, 2019, 11:05 am

greeneyed wrote:
Chicka's shoe wrote:
September 7, 2019, 10:59 am
How's the ticket sitch? I'm coming down this arvo
You'll be right. Warriors don't draw many people.
Can i say how proud i sm though that we are in the top 8 for average crowds this season! Winning off the field too!

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » September 7, 2019, 11:28 am

cat wrote:
September 7, 2019, 11:05 am
greeneyed wrote:
Chicka's shoe wrote:
September 7, 2019, 10:59 am
How's the ticket sitch? I'm coming down this arvo
You'll be right. Warriors don't draw many people.
Can i say how proud i sm though that we are in the top 8 for average crowds this season! Winning off the field too!

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That's great consider we're usually near the bottom.
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Northern Raider
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » September 7, 2019, 11:32 am

Just looked at the average crowds. Dragons are last. Drawing 2k less than the Titans. That's horrendous.
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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » September 7, 2019, 11:44 am

Northern Raider wrote:
September 7, 2019, 10:53 am
Back 3 for each team can expect plenty of high balls then.
Highballs won’t worry the back three - anything put in the air will end up halfway to Braidwood!

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Re: 2019 Rd 25 V Warriors: Game Day

Post by Chicka's shoe » September 7, 2019, 11:52 am

greeneyed wrote:
September 7, 2019, 11:03 am
Chicka's shoe wrote:
September 7, 2019, 10:59 am
How's the ticket sitch? I'm coming down this arvo
You'll be right. Warriors don't draw many people.
Yep, sorted it online, cheers
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