Our inability to handle the niggle

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Matt
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Matt » August 26, 2019, 4:05 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 26, 2019, 1:58 pm
BadnMean wrote:
August 26, 2019, 1:01 pm


Fantastic research. I genuinely think you should email it to the NRL and ask for a response from Annesly.

At the same time, send it to Daily telegraph and SMH and the Raiders. See if it gets run with.
I sent some stuff in the past and you just get a pretty stock standard response and I would say the only outcome would be the stats being even more locked down than now. Plus tbh I feel like I would be doing someone else's job for them.

I might send it to the club, they would have analysts who can validate the data and friendly journos that can pick it up and run with it if the club thinks its useful.
Good plan

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 7:02 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:15 am
I got sick of wondering about whether some of my assumptions are correct so I went and found the detailed stats for every penalty since 2014. These are the number of ruck and offside penalties conceeded for regular season games over that period (2019 I only have until round 10 at the moment, so I excluded it). Possession differences are very small (2 or 3% max) over that period, so I have not adjusted to account for it.

Image

To me, this reflects how I feel about the way we are reffed. We are not the cleanest team, but at the same time I don't think we are the worst and no way are we so far ahead of certain other teams. Of course you could say, well this is just a penalty a game or less difference in most cases, but when the deviation is as large as it is for over 100+ games in a measure that requires subjective judgement, then you need to consider what other areas you are seeing the same thing occur where stats aren't available.

I also know that the first reaction will be that the Broncos are not penalized, but actually what happens is penalty rates drop off a long way in Broncos games. My first reaction would be to say this is because they are on FTA and Refs are aware of the need to support the spectacle (this bias is identified in other codes already). The other reason could be they draw a ref which consistently calls less ruck and offside penalties (I will look at that stat eventually). Either is still an advantage in my opinion and an example of how bias can creep in without advantaging one team clearly.

By the way, from what I can see Home ground advantage is worth about +20% as far as the rate at which a team gets penalties, and that is consistent no matter what other factors come into it (winning team, ladder position etc).

To me these are the sort of statistics that the NRL should be making transparent and explaining what they do in response.
Edwahu....one of the greatest posts in GH history.

Just confirming what the common sense brigade have been saying all along. This directly relates to the unconscious bias that GE and others have provided academic research on.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by gergreg » August 26, 2019, 7:19 pm

I dunno. Everyone knows that the Broncos are the most discipline side in the competition.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by gangrenous » August 26, 2019, 8:12 pm

Nice post edwahu, pigman won’t like it though. Doesn’t take kindly to evidence.

What source did you use?

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by PigRickman » August 26, 2019, 8:30 pm

I've got no problem with evidence, gangers.
You've just never been **** providing any.
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
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Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by gangrenous » August 26, 2019, 8:32 pm



The irony if I let pigman get under my skin in this thread would be delicious

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by PigRickman » August 26, 2019, 8:57 pm

gangrenous wrote:
August 26, 2019, 8:32 pm
Image

The irony if I let pigman get under my skin in this thread would be delicious Image
Wait, you went back to edit this post?
At this point i should have my mail redirected to under your skin, im living there, rent free! :P
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by edwahu » August 26, 2019, 9:02 pm

FTR I didn't post this to prove anyone right or wrong.

Source is the stats off NRL.com. The different events are listed in the match day pages.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 9:25 pm

PigRickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 8:30 pm
I've got no problem with evidence, gangers.
You've just never been **** providing any.
Mate, come on now. You know I love a good Nick debate but you've been denying the exact opposite of what Edwahu has posted here today and you're just walking off like it is nothing. This is clear evidence mate, you and your Townsville chum are the RL equivalent of those climate change deniers saying there are a few more hot days. And ironically, you've been roasted here by evidence. Man up and take the punch from Gangers, the comp isn't equal. For me Ed's post is probably as good as the 2 points on Sunday, I know you'll have something to say but you've been shown up here good and proper.

Now....to have a glass of wine and to sit back and *checks notes* wait for justification on why the Raiders the the most ill disciplined team in the competition in the ruck and 10 by a fair margin. Loving life :lol:
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by PigRickman » August 26, 2019, 9:25 pm

Curious, Ed.
How do we stack up this year against the league against that metric?
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by PigRickman » August 26, 2019, 9:28 pm

Woodgers wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:25 pm
PigRickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 8:30 pm
I've got no problem with evidence, gangers.
You've just never been **** providing any.
Mate, come on now. You know I love a good Nick debate but you've been denying the exact opposite of what Edwahu has posted here today and you're just walking off like it is nothing. This is clear evidence mate, you and your Townsville chum are the RL equivalent of those climate change deniers saying there are a few more hot days. And ironically, you've been roasted here by evidence. Man up and take the punch from Gangers, the comp isn't equal. For me Ed's post is probably as good as the 2 points on Sunday, I know you'll have something to say but you've been shown up here good and proper.

Now....to have a glass of wine and to sit back and *checks notes* wait for justification on why the Raiders the the most ill disciplined team in the competition in the ruck and 10 by a fair margin. Loving life :lol:
Make sure you dont forget your hat to go with that whine, Woodgers!
Ive got it for you here
Image
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 9:31 pm

Ha ha ha....this defeat is a tough one to take buddy. I get it.

That whole tin foil hat thing was a good way to pigeon hole someone making a different point. I'm sure you haven't caught me saying the NRL is out to get the Raiders, I continually said there is unconscious bias and haves and have nots so some teams have it harder than others over the course of the season and finals.

Just tap out bud, this isn't great for you now :lol:
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by PigRickman » August 26, 2019, 9:32 pm

You're made of much weaker stuff than i, woody. I know where this thing is headed, im perfectly OK with it. ;)

You'd know about tapping out too, im STILL waiting for your response from our chat last night. :D
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 9:34 pm

Wait a second... so does that chart definitively prove that we’re the most hard done by comp in the history of world sports or does it just prove we’re the sloppiest in the ruck?

Because hot tip, the Melbourne **** Storm aren’t far behind us, and they’ve been undoubtedly the beat team of the last two decades
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 9:37 pm

PigRickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:32 pm
You're made of much weaker stuff than i, woody. I know where this thing is headed, im perfectly OK with it. ;)

You'd know about tapping out too, im STILL waiting for your response from our chat last night. :D
Don't even know what you're talking about, I went off to watch the cricket but i'll reconvene on there tomorrow no doubt if you require a response.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 9:42 pm

On closer inspection, that’s a REALLY interesting graph, as I would’ve just assumed that over a five year period every team would’ve given away EXACTLY the same amount of penalties

It’s now obvious to me the NRL has a conspiracy against teams like the Raiders, Souths and Melbourne while obviously favouring the glamour clubs like the bulldogs, titans and the broncos

Probably explains why those clubs win all the premierships
Last edited by The Rickman on August 26, 2019, 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 9:43 pm

The Rickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:34 pm
Wait a second... so does that chart definitively prove that we’re the most hard done by comp in the history of world sports or does it just prove we’re the sloppiest in the ruck?

Because hot tip, the Melbourne **** Storm aren’t far behind us, and they’ve been undoubtedly the beat team of the last two decades
The Melbourne Storm are widely regarded by a large majority of the RL public to be the worst ruck manipulators in the entire competition and they're 3 rungs below us over a sample size of 5 years. Alarm bells are ringing Willy.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 9:51 pm

The Rickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:42 pm
On closer inspection, that’s a REALLY interesting graph, as I would’ve just assumed that over a five year period every team would’ve given away EXACTLY the same amount of penalties

It’s now obvious to me the NRL has a conspiracy against teams like the Raiders, Souths and Melbourne while obviously favouring the glamour clubs like the bulldogs, titans and the broncos

Probably explains why those clubs win all the premierships
All you'd have to do is apply logic to the graph to work out that the majority of teams are where they are and there will be some anomalies in the pack as with any graph. Souths and the Burgess boys have been pushing the boundaries for the past 5 years and it's been a big success, i'm not surprised to see them there but they're still a 'have' club, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw other graphs on things like VR decisions if they wouldn't be near the top. Melbourne as I said are clearly the biggest ruck manipulators in the league just on the eye test of most fans.

Are you furiously texting Pigman? I bet you are. This is great. After telling everyone that we were all so wrong you cop a proper metric like this and *checks notes* it indicates you weren't that clever all along while running around slinging mud! ha ha ha brilliant.
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Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 10:02 pm

You genuinely think this is proof that we’re somehow been hard done by rather than evidence we’ve been sloppy in the ruck the last five years?

Boy oh boy, send it to the NRL, go on, I dare you

The fact you’re so chuffed that this is somehow your smoking gun is wonderful
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Azza » August 26, 2019, 10:04 pm

Great. Thanks for descending another promising thread into more s*** slinging.

Muppets.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by edwahu » August 26, 2019, 10:05 pm

Yep. I should've known better to be honest.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by edwahu » August 26, 2019, 10:07 pm

PigRickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:25 pm
Curious, Ed.
How do we stack up this year against the league against that metric?
*edit* Up until round 10 totals I think we are on top again but I would need to double check. If I have time I will but tbh its a lot of work.
Last edited by edwahu on August 26, 2019, 10:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 10:11 pm

The Rickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:02 pm
You genuinely think this is proof that we’re somehow been hard done by rather than evidence we’ve been sloppy in the ruck the last five years?

Boy oh boy, send it to the NRL, go on, I dare you

The fact you’re so chuffed that this is somehow your smoking gun is wonderful
Yeah I genuinely do because I converse with a lot of knowledgeable footy fans who aren't Raiders fans and not one of them would say we're a team that is by FAR the worst infringing in either of those categories. Is that what you're saying Nickman to prove that you're not wrong, that the Raiders have been far worse than any other team in those metrics over a sample size of 5 years? I almost want you to say yes here.

I'm not looking for a smoking gun or validation or anything. Look through my posts over time and even the past 3 or 4 months and you'll clearly see that I am capable of saying I got this or that wrong. I'm not precious about not getting everything right. Yet you've been running around here with a few chums being an absolute tool telling anyone who disagreed with any commentary on the officials or unconscious bias that they are conspiracy theorists and trying to ridicule them. I'm just finding it amusing that now you're refusing to even acknowledge the data and are stepping more than Mick Hancock, but i'm not surprised.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 10:23 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:07 pm
PigRickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 9:25 pm
Curious, Ed.
How do we stack up this year against the league against that metric?
Up until round 10 totals. They should be right but I am less confident in these as I haven't checked the data as much.

Team Name 2019
Canberra Raiders 56.0
Gold Coast Titans 56.0
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 52.0
North Queensland Cowboys 50.0
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 47.0
Melbourne Storm 47.0
Penrith Panthers 45.0
Warriors 44.0
Parramatta Eels 42.0
Newcastle Knights 42.0
Wests Tigers 41.0
South Sydney Rabbitohs 40.0
St. George Illawarra Dragons 40.0
Brisbane Broncos 37.0
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 34.0
Sydney Roosters 27.0
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by afgtnk » August 26, 2019, 10:29 pm

What's the source of the numbers from the graph?

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by edwahu » August 26, 2019, 10:30 pm

I've deleted the original post and will leave you guys to fight amongst yourselves as usual.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 10:30 pm

Woodgers wrote:
The Rickman wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:02 pm
You genuinely think this is proof that we’re somehow been hard done by rather than evidence we’ve been sloppy in the ruck the last five years?

Boy oh boy, send it to the NRL, go on, I dare you

The fact you’re so chuffed that this is somehow your smoking gun is wonderful
Yeah I genuinely do because I converse with a lot of knowledgeable footy fans who aren't Raiders fans and not one of them would say we're a team that is by FAR the worst infringing in either of those categories. Is that what you're saying Nickman to prove that you're not wrong, that the Raiders have been far worse than any other team in those metrics over a sample size of 5 years? I almost want you to say yes here.

I'm not looking for a smoking gun or validation or anything. Look through my posts over time and even the past 3 or 4 months and you'll clearly see that I am capable of saying I got this or that wrong. I'm not precious about not getting everything right. Yet you've been running around here with a few chums being an absolute tool telling anyone who disagreed with any commentary on the officials or unconscious bias that they are conspiracy theorists and trying to ridicule them. I'm just finding it amusing that now you're refusing to even acknowledge the data and are stepping more than Mick Hancock, but i'm not surprised.
I just don’t believe this is the smoking gun you’re absolutely patting yourself on the back over. We’re talking 50 penalties over 5 years difference between us and the Storm, that’s 10 a year, not even half a penalty a game

All this proves to me is that we’ve been the sloppiest team discipline wise in the last five years, and in all honesty, I don’t disagree with that, we’ve been simply awful in the ruck during that period

Seems to me like someone here is carrying on like an “absolute tool”, and it sure as hell ain’t me, pal
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 10:37 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:30 pm
I've deleted the original post and will leave you guys to fight amongst yourselves as usual.
Apologies Edwahu, I thought you made a good post. Put it back up and I won't post in here again as it was a good point.

Sorry all for derailing a good thread. I'll dip out and avoid further derailing in other threads.

edit: happy to let it go Rickman, for the good of the thread and let people continue to discuss how the team handle niggle tactics.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by edwahu » August 26, 2019, 10:41 pm

It's fine, to be honest I haven't got much interest in the game these days compared to the old days so I am not posting much anyway, I just posted them after the weekend gave me the ****.

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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 10:48 pm

I just find it obscure that you think this graph somehow validates your opinion that there’s a grand conspiracy against the raiders, the fact we concede half a penalty a game more than the storm on a five year period

I mean, somebody has to be the worst, and in this case it’s us, and to me that’s not surprising. What’s surprising is how you seem to somehow think the penalty count should be even

That’s not how sports, or statistics work, someone is always going to better and someone’s always going to be worse. Of COURSE someone will concede more penalties, and it’s for the same reason if you graphed total tries or total wins or even things like total errors over the last five years you’ll find absolutely the same disparities in statistics

Honestly, to assume these things should be equal is a HUGE misconception issue
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 11:01 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 26, 2019, 10:41 pm
It's fine, to be honest I haven't got much interest in the game these days compared to the old days so I am not posting much anyway, I just posted them after the weekend gave me the ****.
Ed, i've always enjoyed your posts so I was happy to read it and I thought it was a really good research task.

Rickman, I have a lot to say on all this but i'll let it go for the greater good.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 11:04 pm

The greater good? It’s a forum, we’re supposed to be discussing this sort of stuff! Why are you all of a sudden taking some kind of moral high ground?

This whole discussion is weird
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by greeneyed » August 26, 2019, 11:05 pm

Maybe people could sit back after tonight and reflect and learn something about how their posts affect other people. Sleep on it.
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Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by The Rickman » August 26, 2019, 11:09 pm

greeneyed wrote:Maybe people could sit back after tonight and reflect and learn something about how their posts affect other people. Sleep on it.
Wait a second... have I missed somewhere where this discussion got nasty and devolved into namecalling or something?

Because this discussion seemed VERY civil (with the one exception of obvious name calling that I’m honestly not remotely offended over), so why is everyone all of a sudden carrying on like some line has been crossed?

This is really strange stuff, even for the Greenhouse
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Woodgers
Bradley Clyde
Posts: 8180
Joined: February 1, 2005, 10:34 pm
Favourite Player: Nick Cotric

Re: Our inability to handle the niggle

Post by Woodgers » August 26, 2019, 11:16 pm

I'm happy to keep discussing but I think the point was that we/I derailed the thread and other decent posters didn't want to see the entire thing descend. I wasn't taking a moral high ground, just trying to leave it to the topic that the OP intended.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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