2016 versus 2019

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2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 1:35 am

Interesting to compare the 2016 round 21 Raiders to the 2019 team that just beat the Warriors. I’ve used a scale of 1- 5 and where the same player holds a position in both teams I’ve made a judgment ie was 2016 Raps better, worse or same as 2019 Raps.

Rd 21 2016 v Rabbits vs Rd 20 2019

1. Wighton v CNK = even
2. Lee v Simmonsen = Simmo + 1.5
3. Croker v Croker = 2016 Croker +0.5
4. BJ v Oldie = BJ + 3
5. Raps v Raps = 2016 Raps + 2
6. Austin v Wighton = Wighton + 1.5
7. Sezer v Sezer = 2019 Sezer + 1.5
8. Paulo v Paps = Paps + 3.5
9. Hodgo v Hodgo = even
10. Boyd v Sia = Boyd + 1
11. Papa v J Bateman = Bateman + 1
12. Whitehead v Whitehead = 2019 + 0.5
13. Sia v Tarps = even

14. Clydesdale v Havilli = Havilli + 1
15. L Bateman v Guler = Bateman + 1
16. Tarps v Hors = Tarps + 2
17. Priest v Lui = Lui + 2.5

If I’ve added up right I have 2016 Raiders on 9.5 and 2019 Raiders on 13. I’m saying we are a better side now than in 2016 by 3.5 points.

I found it quite difficult to compare some players. Sia is a much better footballer than Shannon Boyd but Boyd’s 2016 late season form was very strong. I struggled comparing Jack and CNK in the 1 jumper and 2016 Papa with J Bateman as backrowers.

Am I far off the mark?

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Re: 2016 vrs 2019

Post by Roger Kenworthy » August 4, 2019, 5:45 am

2016 did more against top 4 opponents than 2019 has so far. The next few matches will give us a better indicator but I have 2016 as the better side for now.

CNK vs Wighton is an interesting one. CNK all over Wighton for positioning in defending kicks/repeat sets and kick returns, but Wighton was a huge part of our ball playing attack in 2016.

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2016 versus 2019

Post by gangrenous » August 4, 2019, 8:00 am

You’ve got a few I disagree with

CNK +1
BJ +1.5
Wighton even with Austin
Papalii + 1 over Paulo who was stomping opponents
Tapine 2016 +0.5 over Hors
Lui 2019 +1 over Priest
Last edited by gangrenous on August 4, 2019, 8:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Sid » August 4, 2019, 8:24 am

Wighton 2019 **** all over 2016 Austin
Would have won Boogs - 2016, 2017, 2018

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 8:25 am

gangrenous wrote:
August 4, 2019, 8:00 am
You’ve got a few I disagree with

CNK +1
BJ +1.5
Wighton even with Austin
Papalii + 1 over Paulo who was stomping opponents
Tapine 2019 +0.5 over Hors
Lui 2019 +1 over Priest
My maths is pretty average, but if I make all those adjustments I think you have the 2016 team a better side at this stage by 0.5.

I wouldn’t argue hard against any of your adjustments- I found it hard in many cases to look past 2018 form and make a true comparison of how Wighton shapes up against 2016 Austin. I think you’re right about Paulo- he was a beast prior to turning into a slug.

I’d have the 2019 forward pack ahead of the 2016 pack.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 8:29 am

Sid wrote:
August 4, 2019, 8:24 am
Wighton 2019 **** all over 2016 Austin
That’s what I initially thought, but Austin did carve it up for a long time before the comp caught on to his over exaggerated dummy and run. Don’t get me wrong - moving on Austin and getting Jack in the 6 jumper has been a massive reason we are where we are right now but I think Gangers may have a point about Austin’s 2016 form.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by gangrenous » August 4, 2019, 8:33 am

The other aspect in comparing forward packs is how the game has evolved in the last 3 years. The game has got faster as teams adapted new tactics to the reduced interchange.

In their times both were very good forward packs. But in 2016 they were the last of the dinosaurs.

In 2019 our 2016 pack is not mobile enough. Simple as that. That is the most important change the team made this year.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by -PJ- » August 4, 2019, 9:43 am

This squad is plenty stronger..
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Roger Kenworthy » August 4, 2019, 9:49 am

Clydesdale vs Havili is also a +5 for Havili. But given that's a bench role it would skew the match up massively.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 9:54 am

-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 9:43 am
This squad is plenty stronger..
I agree - I’d take the 2019 squad over the 2016 squad for sure, but when you do a position by position comparison it comes out a lot closer than I anticipated. I think if Cotric and BJ come back and find form and Guler swaps out for Sutton we will see the 2019 squad significantly better but at present on a position by position comparison they are very similar.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 10:00 am

Roger Kenworthy wrote:
August 4, 2019, 9:49 am
Clydesdale vs Havili is also a +5 for Havili. But given that's a bench role it would skew the match up massively.
True - I’d take Havilli over Clydesdale every time but given Siva is only getting 20 or so minutes it’s hard to score him as being that bigger of an advantage.

I actually would have thought Kurt Baptist was the back up hooker in 2016? That would have been an interesting comparison. I’d say overall Siva’s a better player but Kurt’s impacts late in a game were pretty solid.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Northern Raider » August 4, 2019, 10:07 am

It's a really interesting comparison.
Despite a lot of commonalities in the squads some of the differences are significant.

Obvious one is middle forwards. We're far more mobile there now but that's in line with how the NRL has developed last couple of years. Then there is the addition of Bateman and the extra energy and tenacity he brings.

The 2 stands outs for me are:

1. Wighton/Austin vs CNK/Wighton. By shifting Wighton we've actually upgraded 2 spine positions. CNK is better than 2016 Wighton at fullback. Wighton is far better than Austin at 5/8. We now have a very solid spine rather than Hodgo being the sole driving force.

2. Our 3/4 line was far and away our biggest threat in 2016. BJ, Croker and Rapana were in ridiculous form. I'd confidently say we had the 2 best centres and best winger in the NRL at the time. It was a case of give them the ball and watch things happen. In 2019 it's reverted back to more a solid, balanced unit. Croker had a series of knee injuries and not reached that level since. BJ was playing as well as ever until his neck problem. Rapana's production also diminished due to injuries. Things are looking up here as Raps and Croker are building their form back up again and we have BJ and Cotric to return.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Northern Raider » August 4, 2019, 10:11 am

Billy Walker wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:00 am
Roger Kenworthy wrote:
August 4, 2019, 9:49 am
Clydesdale vs Havili is also a +5 for Havili. But given that's a bench role it would skew the match up massively.
True - I’d take Havilli over Clydesdale every time but given Siva is only getting 20 or so minutes it’s hard to score him as being that bigger of an advantage.

I actually would have thought Kurt Baptist was the back up hooker in 2016? That would have been an interesting comparison. I’d say overall Siva’s a better player but Kurt’s impacts late in a game were pretty solid.
There's a couple of fill ins with that snap shot of squads. Clydesdale in 2016 and Odlfield in 2019. Shouldn't really include those in the comparison.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by -PJ- » August 4, 2019, 10:16 am

What's impressed me in 2019 is our away form..

8 wins if you count Wagga, which I know was a home game...

That's very good..

This is why playing a prelim final in Sydney or Melbourne won't scare us.

Preferably I'd like to play in Canberra though.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Northern Raider » August 4, 2019, 10:33 am

-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:16 am
What's impressed me in 2019 is our away form..

8 wins if you count Wagga, which I know was a home game...

That's very good..

This is why playing a prelim final in Sydney or Melbourne won't scare us.

Preferably I'd like to play in Canberra though.
Why? Canberra is a dump.

[bolts out of the room]
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by -PJ- » August 4, 2019, 10:43 am

Our 2016/2019 away form is near identical.

In 2016 we had 7 wins and a draw away from Bruce.
2019 so far is 7 wins with games against Storm and Cronulla to come.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Ultima » August 4, 2019, 10:52 am

I feel a lot more confident about our current squads mental fortitude than I have for any Raiders team in a decade though. In 2016 we came second off a purple patch of form and some other clubs dropping off. This year we haven't left the top eight and while we haven't had some of the super entertaining blow a team off the park games like the late run in 2016 gave us we have had so much more control and it's still improving.

The game against the Roosters will be the telling one, sure we haven't beaten a fellow top four team so far this year but we haven't lost to the wooden spooner teams like we did in 2016.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 10:56 am

Northern Raider wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:07 am
It's a really interesting comparison.
Despite a lot of commonalities in the squads some of the differences are significant.

Obvious one is middle forwards. We're far more mobile there now but that's in line with how the NRL has developed last couple of years. Then there is the addition of Bateman and the extra energy and tenacity he brings.

The 2 stands outs for me are:

1. Wighton/Austin vs CNK/Wighton. By shifting Wighton we've actually upgraded 2 spine positions. CNK is better than 2016 Wighton at fullback. Wighton is far better than Austin at 5/8. We now have a very solid spine rather than Hodgo being the sole driving force.

2. Our 3/4 line was far and away our biggest threat in 2016. BJ, Croker and Rapana were in ridiculous form. I'd confidently say we had the 2 best centres and best winger in the NRL at the time. It was a case of give them the ball and watch things happen. In 2019 it's reverted back to more a solid, balanced unit. Croker had a series of knee injuries and not reached that level since. BJ was playing as well as ever until his neck problem. Rapana's production also diminished due to injuries. Things are looking up here as Raps and Croker are building their form back up again and we have BJ and Cotric to return.
I agree with everything you’ve said there NR. The other interesting one for me is Papa. Although Boyd and Paulo were in hot form for a while I feel like Papa is offering more at prop than either of them were. He is in career best form for mine. As a backrower in 2016 Papa was also very good but I’d have 2019 Bateman ahead of him in that position.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by greeneyed » August 4, 2019, 11:58 am

-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:43 am
Our 2016/2019 away form is near identical.

In 2016 we had 7 wins and a draw away from Bruce.
2019 so far is 7 wins with games against Storm and Cronulla to come.
We've actually won eight away from Bruce this year.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 12:46 pm

I guess the other side of all this is whether the competition is stronger or weaker now compared to 2016. Despite Sharks winning the GF, I actually think the Storm were the benchmark team that year which is also the case this year.

Are the 2019 Storm better or worse than 2016 - someone else can work that one out! Haha

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by -PJ- » August 4, 2019, 2:40 pm

greeneyed wrote:
August 4, 2019, 11:58 am
-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:43 am
Our 2016/2019 away form is near identical.

In 2016 we had 7 wins and a draw away from Bruce.
2019 so far is 7 wins with games against Storm and Cronulla to come.
We've actually won eight away from Bruce this year.
I did mention the Wagga win Fergus..come on mate.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by greeneyed » August 4, 2019, 4:15 pm

-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 2:40 pm
greeneyed wrote:
August 4, 2019, 11:58 am
-PJ- wrote:
August 4, 2019, 10:43 am
Our 2016/2019 away form is near identical.

In 2016 we had 7 wins and a draw away from Bruce.
2019 so far is 7 wins with games against Storm and Cronulla to come.
We've actually won eight away from Bruce this year.
I did mention the Wagga win Fergus..come on mate.
:opps :opps :opps

You're right... seven!
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by afgtnk » August 4, 2019, 5:18 pm

2019 Raiders hasn't done anything yet compared to the 2016 version - we're 1-5 against the current top 6.

Until we prove that we can beat them 2016 Raiders is superior, regardless of how we see our current roster in comparison.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Dr Zaius » August 4, 2019, 5:56 pm

2016 was the first time in memory I had confidence that we could defend our line. I had no such confidence in 2017/2018, but have it again now.

Our attack was better in 2016, but reliant on individual brilliance. We seem more structured this year and seem to be building.

I guess you'd say that I have equal confidence in both years defence, and more confidence in 2016 attack. But possibly falling back on structure, this year's attack may hold up better under finals pressure.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by PigRickman » August 4, 2019, 5:59 pm

afgtnk wrote:
August 4, 2019, 5:18 pm
2019 Raiders hasn't done anything yet compared to the 2016 version - we're 1-5 against the current top 6.

Until we prove that we can beat them 2016 Raiders is superior, regardless of how we see our current roster in comparison.
I side on this side of things right now, because it's 100% spot on.
We aint beat no body yet.

Yet.

I have more faith in this team than i did the 2016 team. I believe we will beat legitmate contender and i think we can... and nay... we WILL, win the GF. Lets go.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by PigRickman » August 4, 2019, 6:01 pm

Roger Kenworthy wrote:
August 4, 2019, 9:49 am
Clydesdale vs Havili is also a +5 for Havili. But given that's a bench role it would skew the match up massively.
+5 is slightly generous for Clydesdale.
He's a straight zero. So whatever you want to score Havilii, and i'd say he he's a 6.5... that's the upgrade
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Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Northern Raider » August 4, 2019, 6:14 pm

PigRickman wrote:
August 4, 2019, 5:59 pm
afgtnk wrote:
August 4, 2019, 5:18 pm
2019 Raiders hasn't done anything yet compared to the 2016 version - we're 1-5 against the current top 6.

Until we prove that we can beat them 2016 Raiders is superior, regardless of how we see our current roster in comparison.
I side on this side of things right now, because it's 100% spot on.
We aint beat no body yet.

Yet.

I have more faith in this team than i did the 2016 team. I believe we will beat legitmate contender and i think we can... and nay... we WILL, win the GF. Lets go.
All reasonable observations. Our W/L record against the top 6 teams is ordinary but we've been competitive with all of them sans Storm in Rnd2. Even then it was only 12 point loss.

We'll know soon enough as **** gets real over the next month. Playing Roosters, Storm, Manly and Sharks. That's going to tell us exactly where we sit as either contenders or pretenders.
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by afgtnk » August 4, 2019, 6:46 pm

In regards directly to the initial post

Billy Walker wrote:
August 4, 2019, 1:35 am
Interesting to compare the 2016 round 21 Raiders to the 2019 team that just beat the Warriors. I’ve used a scale of 1- 5 and where the same player holds a position in both teams I’ve made a judgment ie was 2016 Raps better, worse or same as 2019 Raps.

Rd 21 2016 v Rabbits vs Rd 20 2019

1. Wighton v CNK = even
2. Lee v Simmonsen = Simmo + 1.5
3. Croker v Croker = 2016 Croker +0.5
4. BJ v Oldie = BJ + 3
5. Raps v Raps = 2016 Raps + 2
6. Austin v Wighton = Wighton + 1.5
7. Sezer v Sezer = 2019 Sezer + 1.5
8. Paulo v Paps = Paps + 3.5
9. Hodgo v Hodgo = even
10. Boyd v Sia = Boyd + 1
11. Papa v J Bateman = Bateman + 1
12. Whitehead v Whitehead = 2019 + 0.5
13. Sia v Tarps = even

14. Clydesdale v Havilli = Havilli + 1
15. L Bateman v Guler = Bateman + 1
16. Tarps v Hors = Tarps + 2
17. Priest v Lui = Lui + 2.5

If I’ve added up right I have 2016 Raiders on 9.5 and 2019 Raiders on 13. I’m saying we are a better side now than in 2016 by 3.5 points.

I found it quite difficult to compare some players. Sia is a much better footballer than Shannon Boyd but Boyd’s 2016 late season form was very strong. I struggled comparing Jack and CNK in the 1 jumper and 2016 Papa with J Bateman as backrowers.

Am I far off the mark?
Think Croker in 2016 was a lot better than this year. Need to factor in his goal kicking as well
Sezer is more or less about the same, but better than 2017 and 2018
Paps is too far above Paulo. Paulo wasn't a useless lard in 2016, we liked him
JB better than Paps..... nah. Papa had a killer 2016
Give one or two more to Havili over Clydsdale as well

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by BJ » August 4, 2019, 7:02 pm

Shouldn’t we be comparing Havilli with Baptiste. And Baptiste was playing very well in 2016.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 7:15 pm

Reading afgtnk’s post and the comments of others I’m hearing there is a bee’s between the 2016 and 2019 teams. 2019 is better defensively but at this stage in the season the 2016 team had greater credibility against top 4 teams. I suspect if we revisit the review in 3 weeks things might be a bit clearer.

If nothing else I sure as hell hope the 2020 raiders are better than the 2017 lot!

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 7:17 pm

BJ wrote:
August 4, 2019, 7:02 pm
Shouldn’t we be comparing Havilli with Baptiste. And Baptiste was playing very well in 2016.
As a starting hooker Havilli is better than Kurt but coming off the bench late in the half 2016 Kurt adds a lot more with his speed and ability to lift the tempo than what we get out of Havilli.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by PigRickman » August 4, 2019, 7:28 pm

BJ wrote:
August 4, 2019, 7:02 pm
Shouldn’t we be comparing Havilli with Baptiste. And Baptiste was playing very well in 2016.
Yep fair call
I was wondering when commenting on Clydesdale what I was missing because he can’t have been a starting 17 guy

Completely forgot Baptiste
And he was impactful so bad job by me
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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Billy Walker » August 4, 2019, 7:31 pm

PigRickman wrote:
August 4, 2019, 7:28 pm
BJ wrote:
August 4, 2019, 7:02 pm
Shouldn’t we be comparing Havilli with Baptiste. And Baptiste was playing very well in 2016.
Yep fair call
I was wondering when commenting on Clydesdale what I was missing because he can’t have been a starting 17 guy

Completely forgot Baptiste
And he was impactful so bad job by me
If memory serves me right, I think Baptiste copped a lower leg injury around this time in 2016 which kept him out a few weeks but don’t quote me on it.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by afgtnk » August 4, 2019, 7:35 pm

Reading some of the above: I think it's important to note that although over the course of the season we've been much better defensively this year than in 2016, we brought out our A-game defense wise when we needed to in the biggest games.

So if this is a comparison of overall ability to win a comp, defense wise the 2016 side at their best were very good when they needed to be - certainly capable of winning a premiership and as good as any of the other sides. Defensive records in the regular season against run of the mill opposition wouldn't really mean much if you're still winning but then can produce towards the pointy end.

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Re: 2016 versus 2019

Post by Dr Zaius » August 4, 2019, 7:39 pm

We were God awful in defence early in the 2016 season, but a power house in the second half, coinciding with our winning streak.
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