Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Sunday 28 July 4:05pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 11:30am
Jersey Flegg: Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers 11:45am
NSW Cup: Mounties V Penrith Panthers 1:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Early fog then sunny. Mostly sunny. Early fog patches in the west. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 2 Max 20
Round 18 2019. Canberra Raiders 20 - Wests Tigers 12. The opening 10 minutes was flashy, and the second half was a bit ugly. The Raiders didn't score a try after the 20th minute and didn't score a point after half time. But the Canberra defence hung on desperately for the final 37 minutes. The Tigers scored just three minutes into the second half - and the they followed up with some dangerous line breaks, but the Raiders' scramble covered up each time.
More on Round 18: As I saw it
The Raiders are now back on the road and head to Penrith for a clash with the Panthers - a team aiming to match its longest ever winning streak.
Team changes: The only change to the Canberra Raiders team sees Josh Papalii move into the starting team, with Dunamis Lui dropping to the bench. The Penrith Panthers have named the same top 17 that faced the Dragons last week, inluding Viliame Kikau. But Kikau was suspended for two weeks for a shoulder charge by the judiciary on Tuesday night, and the Panthers will be forced to juggle their line up.
Late changes: On Saturday afternoon, the Raiders omitted JJ Collins and Royce Hunt from their squad, leaving Sam Williams and Seb Kris on the extended bench. For the Panthers, Isaah Yeo will move into the second row to replace the suspended Villiame Kikau. Liam Martin will start at lock, while Spencer Leniu has been cut from the bench.
Milestone: Prop Sia Soliola will play his 100th game in green this round.
History: The Raiders have won 37 matches against the Penrith Panthers, lost 38 and drawn one. Canberra has won five of the past 10 clashes between the clubs, but just one of the past five. The Raiders lost the first clash between the teams in 2017 at Bathurst, after leading 20-12 with less than two minutes remaining - conceding two rapid fire tries. The Raiders also lost narrowly in Round 24 2017, 24-20. In Round 14 last year at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders led 22-16 with just over five minutes remaining. A Panthers try leveled the match, and a Nathan Cleary field goal with less than two minutes remaining delivered a 23-22 win for the visitors. That was followed by a 40-31 loss for the Raiders at Penrith in Round 21. The Raiders turned that around in Round 8, earlier this year, winning 30-12 at Wagga Wagga - but it was at a time when the Panthers were struggling.
2019 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
2018 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
2018 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Form: Raiders: WWLWW
Panthers: WWWWW
The Panthers are on a seven game winning streak, and are aiming to match the club record of eight straight, which was achieved in their premiership winning season of 2003. Four of those wins have been against teams currently in the top eight - the Eels (16-10), Sea Eagles (15-12), Roosters (19-10) and Rabbitohs (19-18). They had a big 40-18 win over the Dragons in their last outing at Panthers Stadium. They have also had recent wins over the Warriors (19-18) and the Titans (24-2). The Raiders have now won five of their past six games.
Betting: Both teams were paying $1.90 at the start of the week and the Raiders had 1.5 points start in the line. The Raiders’ odds have firmed, and the are now $1.80 favourites, while the Panthers are paying $2.00. The Panthers now have 1.5 points start.
Stat attack: It is a battle between fourth and seventh on the ladder. The Raiders have a better defensive record than the Panthers - and an even better attacking record. The Panthers are now winning after a poor start to the season. They've finally climbed into the top eight, but still have a negative points differential, the only top eight team in that position.
The Raiders' attack is not really firing on all cylinders, and they rank sixth in the attacking rankings - while the Panthers are in 15th. But that understates the threat in attack that the Panthers are now offering. In their past seven winning games, they've averaged 22 points per match, compared with their season average of 16. In the same period, the Raiders also have averaged 22 points per match.
The Raiders have the second best defence in the competition, after the Storm. The Raiders have conceded under 15 points per game, compared with 19 for the Panthers. In addition, the Panthers have missed more tackles than any team in 2019. But again, during the Panthers' seven game winning streak, they've conceded fewer points than the Green Machine - an average of 13 points per game, compared with 14 points for the Raiders. This is going to be a very tight contest.
The Raiders are the kings of dummy half running and kicking. No team surpasses them on either score this season. They are second to the Broncos for kicking metres gained. Those numbers say a lot about the Raiders' safety first attack and their game plan in season 2019. The Panthers are much more expansive in attack - but also more prone to error. They are top two in the competition for general play passes, while the Raiders rank 16th. The Raiders of old have found it difficult to deal with the Panthers' attacking style, so their defence will have to be right up to the mark on Sunday.
The Raiders won't want this game to be level in the final five minutes or go to golden point. While the Raiders have kicked three field goals this season, the Panthers rank first with five. The Panthers have now won three games by one point and one in golden point.
One area where the Raiders might have an advantage is discipline. The Panthers have conceded more penalties than any other club. While the Raiders were around the top of the list for penalties conceded earlier this season, they have reined that in, and now rank fourth.
Season record: Raiders 11 and 6 (4th, +111)
Panthers 9 and 8 (7th, -49)
Home and away: Raiders 6 of 9 away
Panthers 5 of 9 at home
Against top eight opposition: Raiders have won 3 of 8
Panthers have won 5 of 9
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 3.5 tries scored per match, ranked 6th
Panthers 16 points and 2.6 tries scored per match, ranked 15th
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 2.5 tries conceded per match, ranked 2nd
Panthers 19 points and 3.2 tries conceded per match, ranked 6th
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent
Panthers 71 per cent
Running: Raiders 1561 running metres from 174 runs, 185 kick return metres, 447 post contact metres per match
Panthers 1539 running metres from 179 runs, 181 kick return metres, 447 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Panthers 26
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Panthers 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Panthers 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Panthers 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 7, Panthers 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 595 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Panthers 511 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 330 made, 30 missed, 13 ineffective per match
Panthers 352 made, 40 missed, 14 ineffective per match
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1373, Panthers 1330 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 10, Panthers 12 per match
Penalties: Raiders 7, Panthers 8 per match
Our tip: This shapes as a huge challenge for the Green Machine - and a very close match. The punters can't split the teams and the recent statistics are close as well. The Panthers have some very dangerous halves, and last week Nathan Cleary and James Maloney had four try assists, and three line break assists between them. The Raiders playmakers are going to have to be at their best to match them. As they showed in the opening 20 minutes last week, they can do it. But they'll need to keep up the pressure in attack for 80 minutes against the Panthers.
Canberra's standard game plan - winning the battle in the middle third, good completions, good line speed in defence, slowing the ruck and kicking to the corners - has the potential to close down the Panthers' attack. The Raiders won't be able to afford a period where they switch off. The Panthers can make other teams pay quickly. But if the Raiders execute their plan properly, they can win. Raiders by two.
What they're saying:
Michael Oldfield on the Panthers: "They're in some awesome form at the moment and even though they had a lot of losses to start the year they've got such a strong squad. I knew from the outside looking in that it was always bound to click.
Bailey Simonsson: "The Panthers have been in red-hot form so it's going to be a tough game for us, but we're confident we can go up there and get the job done. They've got quality halves and they're a quality team so we're going to have to make sure our defence is good again to shut them down."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Bailey Simonsson
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Michael Oldfield
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Sia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine
14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Dunamis Lui
18. Sam Williams
20. Sebastian Kris
Injury/Suspension
Nick Cotric (Suspended) Round 21
Ryan Sutton (Calf) Round 21-23
Ata Hingano (Thumb) Round 20-22
Joey Leilua (Neck) Indefinite
Luke Bateman (Knee) Round 20-21
Brad Abbey (Knee) Season
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Josh Mansour
3. Dean Whare
4. Brent Naden
5. Brian To'o
6. James Maloney
7. Nathan Cleary
8. James Tamou (C)
9. Mitch Kenny
10. James Fisher-Harris
13. Isaah Yeo
12. Frank Winterstein
21. Liam Martin
14. Wayde Egan
15. Jarome Luai
16. Moses Leota
17. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
18. Jed Cartwright
20. Stephen Crichton
Officials
Referees: Ashley Klein, David Munro
Sideline Officials: Tim Roby, Liam Nicholls
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLPanthersRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2019 #FromAllAngles
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