Are we premiership contenders?

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Dusty
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Dusty » July 19, 2019, 3:36 pm

Finchy wrote:I don't understand the point of the ladder predictor. It's useless. Not only do you need to correctly choose all the winners for the next 64 games, you also need to get the for-and-against right. You choose one game wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. You get the for-and-against wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. It's like trying to win a tipping comp by locking in all the winners for every game at the start of the year, not taking into account weekly form changes and injuries. It's hard enough trying to get 50% of games correct in a tipping comp from week to week, so I don't understand the appeal of the ladder predictor. Is it just fun to hypothetically make the Raiders win the grand final?
As a former winner of THe Greenhouse tipping comp and a current leader in this years tipping comp I am offended you don’t think I can predict all of those things Image


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2019: 1. Wighton 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Oldfield (Rapana) 6. Williams 7. Sezer 8. Sutton 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Papalii 11. Tapine 12. Whitehead 13. J.Bateman ----
14. Havili 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Lui

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 19, 2019, 3:56 pm

Finchy wrote:
July 19, 2019, 3:10 pm
I don't understand the point of the ladder predictor. It's useless. Not only do you need to correctly choose all the winners for the next 64 games, you also need to get the for-and-against right. You choose one game wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. You get the for-and-against wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. It's like trying to win a tipping comp by locking in all the winners for every game at the start of the year, not taking into account weekly form changes and injuries. It's hard enough trying to get 50% of games correct in a tipping comp from week to week, so I don't understand the appeal of the ladder predictor. Is it just fun to hypothetically make the Raiders win the grand final?
That's why when I used it, I tipped the winners by just one... so as to essentially assume the current for and against.

It was still useful, I thought, especially as we got closer and closer to the finals.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by zim » July 19, 2019, 4:12 pm

Yeah choosing just the winners is way more useful. The best update they made to the old one was that they defaulted to a 1 point win when you chose the winner rather than requiring you to enter the 1 yourself.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 22, 2019, 2:09 pm

Canberra Raiders can go all the way in 2019, according to Kevin Walters

They are the genuine surprise packets of 2019, and Queensland Maroons coach Kevin Walters believes the Canberra Raiders can go all the way this season.

"I think they are genuine premiership contenders on the back of their defence more than anything else," he said. "To win the big end of season games you need to be able to stop the opposition and that is where they have improved dramatically this year."

Read more: https://www.sportingnews.com/au/league/ ... el9ynh8h1k

AUDIO: Hear Kevin Walters on the Raiders' prospects: http://media.skyracing.com.au/POD/1/GGyyUa.mp3

AUDIO: Hear Steve Walters on the 30th anniversary of the Raiders' first premiership: http://media.skyracing.com.au/POD/1/sBhBSJ.mp3
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Billy Walker » July 22, 2019, 3:09 pm

I’ve been confident we have been premiership contenders for most this season, we have a few games coming up that will define whether we are an outside roughie or a team to beat. That’s not to say we have to win every game - I just want to see the week to week improvement in our game continue. I’d love to see us knock this Panthers mob off for a start!

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Azza » July 22, 2019, 11:26 pm

Realistically you can only play what's in front of you and we've done a pretty decent job over the last five or six rounds, other than the abominable performance vs Parramatta. However it's hard to argue against the fact we have played the easier teams in recent weeks. We now move into a more difficult part of the draw and it's actually a really good opportunity for us to prove our wares to ourselves. I feel like having watched the team play some of the better sides earlier in the year there was an element of a lack of self belief, at least at times. If we can snag some wins against the better sides that can easily turn around and then we are genuine contenders. similar to 2016 where questions remained over us until we played the storm and the sharks in consecutive weeks and beat them both.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by magoo » July 23, 2019, 12:21 am

The last 7 rds are going to be interesting, can't wait to see how we go. We definitely have to win 3 I feel, obviously the more the better.
Win lose or draw I will gain/lose confidence depending on our performance. Losing to the top teams won't bother me as long as we show the rugby league community that we belong in the 4. If we deliver effort, commitment, discipline and play tough for 80min but fail to get the win ,no problem, just means the hunger will be greater in the finals. If we get completely outclassed like Newcastle did on Saturday, then I will be very worried indeed.
Bring it on baby,I can't wait .2016 was fun, but I feel in 2019 we' might be a serious contender. Anything can happen once you make the finals

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Coastalraider » July 23, 2019, 9:22 am

Azza wrote:
July 22, 2019, 11:26 pm
Realistically you can only play what's in front of you and we've done a pretty decent job over the last five or six rounds, other than the abominable performance vs Parramatta. However it's hard to argue against the fact we have played the easier teams in recent weeks. We now move into a more difficult part of the draw and it's actually a really good opportunity for us to prove our wares to ourselves. I feel like having watched the team play some of the better sides earlier in the year there was an element of a lack of self belief, at least at times. If we can snag some wins against the better sides that can easily turn around and then we are genuine contenders. similar to 2016 where questions remained over us until we played the storm and the sharks in consecutive weeks and beat them both.
Agree with everything on here Azza, but Id like to add something I've been contemplating since Saturday.

In the 2016 run, I had a similar feeling to this year - we were beating teams that weren't really the recognised heavyweights of the comp that year, and still had to have our litmus test agains the big boys - in the 2016 run home that was Cronulla and Melbourne. This year its the Rooster and Melbourne. We have a tendency to play to the level of the match way too often, and I think that its happening again this year. I would have very little doubt that the management team are looking longer term right now, with glimpses such as Papa coming off the bench for 2 weeks in a row. A comment someone made on here recently was interesting that there is a very good chance that the squad is in a big training phase to launch into the back end of the year in peak condition.

It wouldn't surprise me if we have seriously targeted the 2 games against the big guys, and our training loads, rotation policies and mindset are heavily focused on those outcomes. Sticky has proven in the past he excels at getting a crew up for big games, lets see if he can do it again.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 23, 2019, 9:40 am

The biggest difference between 2019 and 2016 is the quality of opposition. In 2016 we probably should have beaten the Sharks in the first semi and the preliminary final against the Storm we missed out by an Edrick drop ball, plus some key injuries at the wrong time. It was a very level field back then.

In 2019 there's a distinct gap between the top teams (Storm and Roosters) and the rest. Bunnies I would have on par with us along with Manly. The next few are a tier down. Panthers a bit of a wild carb because they have the cattle to go deep into the finals.

WIth that all said I think we can contend if we keep our top side on the park and avoid injury/suspension. Although it may rely on Storm and Roosters losing a key player or two. Storm would suffer massively if Cam Smith wasn't there. To a lesser extent Munster. Roosters obviously depend on Cronk to run the game and Tedesco is their game breaker. Lose either one of them would have a big impact. Lets also not underestimate the value of Friend to their chances. He's out again with a broken arm and shifting Radley to hooker weakens them on 2 fronts. They effectively lose a top class lock and hooker.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by amiafish » July 23, 2019, 10:40 am

We've got as couple of deficits that prevent us from being top tier (Storm and Roosters).

Firstly, our defence, while terrific in terms of effort/scramble lacks a bit of structure and calm. We burn through too much energy desperately "filling the frame" to defuse every attack (i.e. putting so many jerseys on the ball-carrier that the TV screen is dominated by green). That is Origin-style defence, and it works for Origin because you only have three games to play and both teams play like there's no tomorrow. But in clubland, it means that you burn out, both during games (when you fade-out if the other team gets a possession spike against you) and over the course of the season (where you pick up injuries and can't maintain intensity). We need a bit more finesse in our defensive pattern and a bit more success and trust in our one-on-one tackling, so that we don't gas ourselves before we get the ball.

Secondly, with BJ out, we lack game-breaking potential compared to the top two. Storm have Munster, Roosters have Teddy (and sometimes Latrell). That means that when we're under the pump to score (like we were in that melt-down against Parra) we put too much pressure on Hodgo and Jack to bust the game open. This makes us prone to handling errors from pushing the pass, which leads to possession deficit, which plays into the first problem I spoke about. Nothing much we can do about it...just hope Sezer keeps playing well to take some of the attacking heat off Hodgo and Jack...and fingers crossed BJ has a miraculous recovery!

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Hazza » July 24, 2019, 4:29 pm

a lot of 2016 comparisons being made. We were a completely different team in '16. We were absolutely flogging sides week after week, scoring points at will, Leipana running rampant. We scored 687 points in the regular season. No team's come close since, that raiders '16 side statistically anyway was 1 of the greatest attacking sides in the last 20 years.

This year we've been a far different team in the way we're winning games. In the main we're winning games on defense. That wasn't the case in '16 (although we did defend very well in the semis). We're grinding games out this year. For the 1st time in a verrrrry long time, when a team has repeated sets in our half I'm confident we'll hold them out. I don't remember the last time I had that feeling.

The key? J.Leilua. If by some divine miracle we get him back at some stage I believe we can win the comp. He's been a massive loss for us in attack. Massive. He creates what 8-10 pts a game? We wouldn't have beaten the Broncs without him, he basically won us that himself. Without him we lack a bit of x factor. But if our defense keeps holding up as it is we won't have to score many to win. Exciting times.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by afgtnk » July 24, 2019, 4:43 pm

Yeah Joey's definitely one of if not the lynchpin in attack. So much goes through him or comes off the back of the work he does.

Still doing alright in attack but to be able to help break down sides later on we need him there.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by BJ » July 24, 2019, 5:23 pm

For those who think we might be in a heavy training period in preparation for the finals, I am very sure we are not.

If we choose to do that, it is done about a month out from the semi’s, not two months.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by BadnMean » July 24, 2019, 6:36 pm

We have enough attack with Hodgo, Wighton, Cotric, Rapana, Bateman to threaten sides. There won't be Joey, but we have enough there + some classy finishers in Croker and CNK. It's not 2016 but it doesn't need to be.

We'll win by scrapping out about 20 pts and defending better.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 25, 2019, 2:32 pm

The NRL.com ladder predictor is back: https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » July 25, 2019, 2:33 pm

greeneyed wrote:
July 25, 2019, 2:32 pm
The NRL.com ladder predictor is back: https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder
I love that thing. Everytime I've done it we've won the comp.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Finchy » July 25, 2019, 6:04 pm

The Rickman wrote:
July 25, 2019, 2:33 pm
greeneyed wrote:
July 25, 2019, 2:32 pm
The NRL.com ladder predictor is back: https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder
I love that thing. Everytime I've done it we've won the comp.
It's true! I just did it. Despite finishing 6th, we managed to beat the Roosters in the grand final.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by GreenMachine » July 25, 2019, 6:26 pm

Looks like Joey may be back in a month.
If that is the case, I'm more confident about our prospects.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by julian87 » July 25, 2019, 6:41 pm

Hazza wrote:
July 24, 2019, 4:29 pm
a lot of 2016 comparisons being made. We were a completely different team in '16. We were absolutely flogging sides week after week, scoring points at will, Leipana running rampant. We scored 687 points in the regular season. No team's come close since, that raiders '16 side statistically anyway was 1 of the greatest attacking sides in the last 20 years.

This year we've been a far different team in the way we're winning games. In the main we're winning games on defense. That wasn't the case in '16 (although we did defend very well in the semis). We're grinding games out this year. For the 1st time in a verrrrry long time, when a team has repeated sets in our half I'm confident we'll hold them out. I don't remember the last time I had that feeling.

The key? J.Leilua. If by some divine miracle we get him back at some stage I believe we can win the comp. He's been a massive loss for us in attack. Massive. He creates what 8-10 pts a game? We wouldn't have beaten the Broncs without him, he basically won us that himself. Without him we lack a bit of x factor. But if our defense keeps holding up as it is we won't have to score many to win. Exciting times.
Great post. Unfortunately Cotric skipping in there hasn’t eventuated.

Honestly Joey is probably the most top tier player in position that we have. He’s without doubt the #2 club centre imo.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 31, 2019, 9:08 pm

Backbone of success? Key flaw in top title contenders revealed

RAIDERS

Spine: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 6. Jack Wighton 7. Aidan Sezer 9. Josh Hodgson

Games together 2019: 6

Depth: Sam Williams, Siliva Havili

Analysis: Like the team itself the Raiders boast one of the most improved spines in the competition in 2019. Jack Wighton’s switch from fullback to five-eighth has been a revelation in part due to the success of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad at the back. The New Zealand native has been one of the form fullbacks of the competition. Josh Hodgson is one of the premier hookers in the NRL and so much of the Raiders’ success hinges on his ability to control the middle third of the field, but his injury struggles in the past two seasons will be keeping Ricky Stuart awake at night. Aidan Sezer spent the early part of the season in reserve grade, but has burst back into form in the middle part of the year. The Raiders have able replacements at hooker and halfback in Siliva Havili and Sam Williams, but the loss of Sezer and particularly Hodgson could prove fatal for their season.

Mark: A-

Read more: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-pr ... f95deab82b
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Finite » July 31, 2019, 9:35 pm

Yes

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by BadnMean » August 1, 2019, 10:10 am

So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » August 1, 2019, 12:05 pm

BadnMean wrote:
August 1, 2019, 10:10 am
So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.
Haha it's fantastic insight isn't it?

Next week: how the Storm may not win the grand final without Cameron Smith.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Billy Walker » August 1, 2019, 1:39 pm

The Rickman wrote:
August 1, 2019, 12:05 pm
BadnMean wrote:
August 1, 2019, 10:10 am
So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.
Haha it's fantastic insight isn't it?

Next week: how the Storm may not win the grand final without Cameron Smith.
Apart from it being average analysis, I don’t actually think it factors in that we have done quite ok this year with Hodgo injured, Sezer in Mounties, Jack away at Origin. Losing anyone of our spine will hurt but we have reasonable backup and I wouldn’t consider it fatal to premiership hopes.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by BadnMean » August 1, 2019, 2:03 pm

Billy Walker wrote:
August 1, 2019, 1:39 pm
The Rickman wrote:
August 1, 2019, 12:05 pm
BadnMean wrote:
August 1, 2019, 10:10 am
So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.
Haha it's fantastic insight isn't it?

Next week: how the Storm may not win the grand final without Cameron Smith.
Apart from it being average analysis, I don’t actually think it factors in that we have done quite ok this year with Hodgo injured, Sezer in Mounties, Jack away at Origin. Losing anyone of our spine will hurt but we have reasonable backup and I wouldn’t consider it fatal to premiership hopes.
I thought similar, but it depends on the length of time we are covering one of those. For any one game- I don't think it hurts us that much. If we lose one for the last 3 rounds + finals, then we are probably cooked.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » August 1, 2019, 2:06 pm

Billy Walker wrote:
August 1, 2019, 1:39 pm
The Rickman wrote:
August 1, 2019, 12:05 pm
BadnMean wrote:
August 1, 2019, 10:10 am
So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.
Haha it's fantastic insight isn't it?

Next week: how the Storm may not win the grand final without Cameron Smith.
Apart from it being average analysis, I don’t actually think it factors in that we have done quite ok this year with Hodgo injured, Sezer in Mounties, Jack away at Origin. Losing anyone of our spine will hurt but we have reasonable backup and I wouldn’t consider it fatal to premiership hopes.
It's John Bateman that hurts us. We lost three of the four games he missed, but won all three Hodgo missed with Bateman back.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by papabear » August 1, 2019, 2:22 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
July 23, 2019, 9:40 am
The biggest difference between 2019 and 2016 is the quality of opposition. In 2016 we probably should have beaten the Sharks in the first semi and the preliminary final against the Storm we missed out by an Edrick drop ball, plus some key injuries at the wrong time. It was a very level field back then.

In 2019 there's a distinct gap between the top teams (Storm and Roosters) and the rest. Bunnies I would have on par with us along with Manly. The next few are a tier down. Panthers a bit of a wild carb because they have the cattle to go deep into the finals.

WIth that all said I think we can contend if we keep our top side on the park and avoid injury/suspension. Although it may rely on Storm and Roosters losing a key player or two. Storm would suffer massively if Cam Smith wasn't there. To a lesser extent Munster. Roosters obviously depend on Cronk to run the game and Tedesco is their game breaker. Lose either one of them would have a big impact. Lets also not underestimate the value of Friend to their chances. He's out again with a broken arm and shifting Radley to hooker weakens them on 2 fronts. They effectively lose a top class lock and hooker.
a bad hodgson penalty.
2016 imo was our year and we choked it away.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by GreenMachine » August 1, 2019, 4:17 pm

The Rickman wrote:
July 25, 2019, 2:33 pm
greeneyed wrote:
July 25, 2019, 2:32 pm
The NRL.com ladder predictor is back: https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder
I love that thing. Everytime I've done it we've won the comp.
Exactly what happens every time I use it!

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by raiderskater » August 1, 2019, 4:32 pm

papabear wrote:
August 1, 2019, 2:22 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 23, 2019, 9:40 am
The biggest difference between 2019 and 2016 is the quality of opposition. In 2016 we probably should have beaten the Sharks in the first semi and the preliminary final against the Storm we missed out by an Edrick drop ball, plus some key injuries at the wrong time. It was a very level field back then.

In 2019 there's a distinct gap between the top teams (Storm and Roosters) and the rest. Bunnies I would have on par with us along with Manly. The next few are a tier down. Panthers a bit of a wild carb because they have the cattle to go deep into the finals.

WIth that all said I think we can contend if we keep our top side on the park and avoid injury/suspension. Although it may rely on Storm and Roosters losing a key player or two. Storm would suffer massively if Cam Smith wasn't there. To a lesser extent Munster. Roosters obviously depend on Cronk to run the game and Tedesco is their game breaker. Lose either one of them would have a big impact. Lets also not underestimate the value of Friend to their chances. He's out again with a broken arm and shifting Radley to hooker weakens them on 2 fronts. They effectively lose a top class lock and hooker.
a bad hodgson penalty.
2016 imo was our year and we choked it away.
I don't think we would have won the GF in 2016 even if Edrick Lee could catch. We would have gone into the match with either two reserve centres or two centres each on one leg, with the other strapped as much as possible and both stabbed full of painkillers. And I think that would have been enough to sink us.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Billy Walker » August 1, 2019, 5:37 pm

The Rickman wrote:
August 1, 2019, 2:06 pm
Billy Walker wrote:
August 1, 2019, 1:39 pm
The Rickman wrote:
August 1, 2019, 12:05 pm
BadnMean wrote:
August 1, 2019, 10:10 am
So the analysis is that if we lose our key playmaker, we might struggle? Well I can't argue with it but it's hardly groundbreaking or unique to our club.
Haha it's fantastic insight isn't it?

Next week: how the Storm may not win the grand final without Cameron Smith.
Apart from it being average analysis, I don’t actually think it factors in that we have done quite ok this year with Hodgo injured, Sezer in Mounties, Jack away at Origin. Losing anyone of our spine will hurt but we have reasonable backup and I wouldn’t consider it fatal to premiership hopes.
It's John Bateman that hurts us. We lost three of the four games he missed, but won all three Hodgo missed with Bateman back.
Yep Bateman is the key.

Losing Papa would sting a bit as well and it wouldn’t be fun if CNK wasn’t there.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » August 3, 2019, 2:30 pm

greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 10:50 pm
We haven't had anything like a 40-50 thrashing all season. The biggest win has been the 28-0 win all season, the average point advantage has been five points.
Bumping this older Post. GE you said our attack needed to improve for us to be contenders (we were 8th ranked at the time). A bit more comfortable now?
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raiderskater
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by raiderskater » August 3, 2019, 4:02 pm

I feel dirty as heck for cheering for the Sharks this afternoon. I can live with cheering for the Titans because that just feels like pity at this point.
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Mickey_Raider
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Mickey_Raider » August 11, 2019, 4:56 pm

Time for a bump.

I think after today’s loss we are still contenders.

BUT. Next weekends game against storm is pretty crucial. You can’t go 0/5 against the top 4 teams without a bit of self doubt creeping in.

And you can’t keep kicking the can down the road. At some stage you have to stand up and be more than just a Smokey. And you do that you need to take down the likes of the storm and roosters.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » August 11, 2019, 5:04 pm

Mickey_Raider wrote:
August 11, 2019, 4:56 pm
Time for a bump.

I think after today’s loss we are still contenders.

BUT. Next weekends game against storm is pretty crucial. You can’t go 0/5 against the top 4 teams without a bit of self doubt creeping in.

And you can’t keep kicking the can down the road. At some stage you have to stand up and be more than just a Smokey. And you do that you need to take down the likes of the storm and roosters.
Very much agree. Little doubt we can compete with the top sides. It's time to covert those honorable losses into wins. Starts next week.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Brew » August 11, 2019, 5:16 pm

At this stage, and I believe never have been, contenders. Next week will tell us more.


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