Are we premiership contenders?

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Northern Raider
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 1, 2019, 2:13 pm

The Rickman wrote:
July 1, 2019, 1:55 pm
September seems the best month to assess who's going to win it, if you ask me.

First weekend of October has some bearing too.
I'm guessing when you read crime thrillers you jump straight to the last chapter.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by -PJ- » July 1, 2019, 2:20 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
July 1, 2019, 2:13 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 1, 2019, 1:55 pm
September seems the best month to assess who's going to win it, if you ask me.

First weekend of October has some bearing too.
I'm guessing when you read crime thrillers you jump straight to the last chapter.
The team with the most points after 80 minutes will win..
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » July 1, 2019, 2:24 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
July 1, 2019, 2:13 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 1, 2019, 1:55 pm
September seems the best month to assess who's going to win it, if you ask me.

First weekend of October has some bearing too.
I'm guessing when you read crime thrillers you jump straight to the last chapter.
No, but if you stop reading halfway through every book because of who the most likely suspect is you'd be very bored indeed.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by RedRaider » July 2, 2019, 6:23 am

I think we are Premiership contenders as opposed to likely Premiership winners. The favourite is clearly the Storm. But anything can happen on Grand Final day. The trick is to be there on that day.

It never helps when one of your best players all year has an off night. (Jacks hands). We also had Hodgo back for his first game in the humidity. I'm sure he'll improve on that effort with some more match time. It doesn't help when the coach sits on the sideline and watches his tiring players up close, but only uses 6 interchanges. Emotion overtaking logic?? Too close?? We faded at the back end of the first half and after just over 20 minutes of the second half. Tropical heat will always be a factor in fatigue so why not use the bench to the fullest? Parramatta did. Our defensive efforts under fatigue are deteriorating. Hopefully the coach is not too close to see that. The Eels match was like a re-run of several 2018 matches. Get out to a lead and hand it back to the opposition. Get the focus back on making effective tackles and the basics like having tactical kickers in position at the end of sets. These are coaching issues.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by RedRaider » July 2, 2019, 6:26 am

There didn't seem to be much talk among the Raiders players. For those who were at the game, could you hear the players communicating or were they too knackered?

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Seiffert82 » July 2, 2019, 7:40 am

Yeah, we are still in the mix, but I do have big concerns about the way we capitulated against Manly, Parramatta and (almost) Cronulla. This whole issue of taking a good lead and then - not just clocking off, but actively throwing any game plan or discipline out the window - is a bit scary.

I don't care about the conditions or Jack Wighton's hands. It really wasn't those issues that changed the momentum of that game. It was throwing stupid passes, not getting to kicks, dropping off tackles and the lack of discipline in the ruck which was really frustrating to watch. The coach has to sort that out quick smart.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Toviii » July 3, 2019, 12:52 pm

Our top 30 has been finialised, and looking at it, every person in their could quite easily come into a position and do a solid job for this team, which puts us in a much better position than the last couple years.


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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by -PJ- » July 6, 2019, 9:12 am

As of today we are on 20pts.

All we need is 4 wins from our remaining 9 games to play finals.

Then...we are premiership contenders.
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Are we premiership contenders?

Post by LastRaider » July 6, 2019, 8:42 pm

-PJ- wrote:As of today we are on 20pts.

All we need is 4 wins from our remaining 9 games to play finals.

Then...we are premiership contenders.

The run home
Dragons
Tigers
Panthers
Warriors
Roosters
Storm
Sea Eagles
Sharks
Warriors

It all hangs on the next 4 games. If we can snare all 4 games, we should be able to coast into the finals.




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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » July 7, 2019, 9:03 am

Gee, looking at that run home there’s really no excuses to not make the Top 4 is there?

Having the Storm, Roosters and Sharks as three of the five games running into the finals is absolutely perfect preparation for September football as well.

There’s really no reason we shouldn’t win every other game and hopefully one or two of those three.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by -PJ- » July 7, 2019, 9:16 am

Exactly..

We are in a good position and the ball is well and truely in our court.

Having Storm, Roosters and Sharks leading into the finals is primo preparation...

There's still plenty of work to do between now and Sept though and the past few weeks have been scary..slipping back into old habits..

The home games against Tigers, Sea Eagles and Warriors are must wins to keep momentum...
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Seiffert82 » July 7, 2019, 2:06 pm

If we go back to focussing on defence anything is possible.

In fact, the way our attack is generally misfiring, that's the only way it's going to be possible!

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » July 7, 2019, 4:57 pm

Seiffert82 wrote:If we go back to focussing on defence anything is possible.

In fact, the way our attack is generally misfiring, that's the only way it's going to be possible!
It’s the only way ANY premierships are possible with the odd exception
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 7, 2019, 5:02 pm

You need decent attack too.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by The Rickman » July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm

greeneyed wrote:You need decent attack too.
We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm

The Rickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm
greeneyed wrote:You need decent attack too.
We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 7, 2019, 5:20 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm
greeneyed wrote:You need decent attack too.
We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
Our attack is no better than middle of the pack at present, pretty blunt, and it will need to improve. Ranked seventh for total points and eighth for tries scored. The problem is we don't have a general in the halves and have depended on the brilliance of the outside backs to score points. With Leilua out, Rapana often on the sidelines, and Cotric now injured and a bit below his best... the attack is pretty average.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 7, 2019, 7:40 pm

greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:20 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm
greeneyed wrote:You need decent attack too.
We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
Our attack is no better than middle of the pack at present, pretty blunt, and it will need to improve. Ranked seventh for total points and eighth for tries scored. The problem is we don't have a general in the halves and have depended on the brilliance of the outside backs to score points. With Leilua out, Rapana often on the sidelines, and Cotric now injured and a bit below his best... the attack is pretty average.
We've seen it far too often in the last decade or so where we've had one of the best attacks in the comp but never really been contenders. I'm more than happy with a middle of the road attack if you have a top level defense. That's what makes you a contender.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 7, 2019, 7:51 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:20 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm
greeneyed wrote:You need decent attack too.
We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
Our attack is no better than middle of the pack at present, pretty blunt, and it will need to improve. Ranked seventh for total points and eighth for tries scored. The problem is we don't have a general in the halves and have depended on the brilliance of the outside backs to score points. With Leilua out, Rapana often on the sidelines, and Cotric now injured and a bit below his best... the attack is pretty average.
We've seen it far too often in the last decade or so where we've had one of the best attacks in the comp but never really been contenders. I'm more than happy with a middle of the road attack if you have a top level defense. That's what makes you a contender.
I’d be surprised if teams win premierships with eighth ranked attack. But happy for someone to prove that wrong!


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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by PigRickman » July 7, 2019, 8:15 pm

greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 7:51 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:20 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm
The Rickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:05 pm

We have more than “decent” attack.

Defence wins premierships though.
Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
Our attack is no better than middle of the pack at present, pretty blunt, and it will need to improve. Ranked seventh for total points and eighth for tries scored. The problem is we don't have a general in the halves and have depended on the brilliance of the outside backs to score points. With Leilua out, Rapana often on the sidelines, and Cotric now injured and a bit below his best... the attack is pretty average.
We've seen it far too often in the last decade or so where we've had one of the best attacks in the comp but never really been contenders. I'm more than happy with a middle of the road attack if you have a top level defense. That's what makes you a contender.
I’d be surprised if teams win premierships with eighth ranked attack. But happy for someone to prove that wrong!


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Last 10 years... and ive done this via the best RL on the internet https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org
but also under the influence so take it within context, but roughly:

2018 - Roosters: 4th
2017 - Storm: 1st
2016 - Sharks: 3rd
2015 - Cowboys: 2nd
2014 - Rabbitohs: 3rd
2013 - Roosters: 1st
2012 - Storm: 2nd
2011 - Eagles: 1st
2010 - Dragons: 8th
2009 - Storm*: 11th

Not great, gotta go back 8 years to find teams not in the top 4 for attack
You can make of that what you want... dumbing things down incredibly here but like being a 8th or worst attacking team means you have a 20% chance of being premiers, which for us, sounds great!
But also it feels like 2010 was a LIFE time ago, and the best way to acheive success is being a top 4 team on both sides of the ball
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by gergreg » July 7, 2019, 8:32 pm

Just looking at the draw, teams 6 through 14 are all within reach of a finals spot but realistically I think Panthers and Tigers are the only sides currently outside of the 8 that could make a run - with Panthers being the more likely.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 7, 2019, 8:59 pm

PigRickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 8:15 pm
greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 7:51 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:20 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 5:08 pm

Scoring points has generally not been an issue for the Raiders for quite a long time now.
Our attack is no better than middle of the pack at present, pretty blunt, and it will need to improve. Ranked seventh for total points and eighth for tries scored. The problem is we don't have a general in the halves and have depended on the brilliance of the outside backs to score points. With Leilua out, Rapana often on the sidelines, and Cotric now injured and a bit below his best... the attack is pretty average.
We've seen it far too often in the last decade or so where we've had one of the best attacks in the comp but never really been contenders. I'm more than happy with a middle of the road attack if you have a top level defense. That's what makes you a contender.
I’d be surprised if teams win premierships with eighth ranked attack. But happy for someone to prove that wrong!


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Last 10 years... and ive done this via the best RL on the internet https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org
but also under the influence so take it within context, but roughly:

2018 - Roosters: 4th
2017 - Storm: 1st
2016 - Sharks: 3rd
2015 - Cowboys: 2nd
2014 - Rabbitohs: 3rd
2013 - Roosters: 1st
2012 - Storm: 2nd
2011 - Eagles: 1st
2010 - Dragons: 8th
2009 - Storm*: 11th

Not great, gotta go back 8 years to find teams not in the top 4 for attack
You can make of that what you want... dumbing things down incredibly here but like being a 8th or worst attacking team means you have a 20% chance of being premiers, which for us, sounds great!
But also it feels like 2010 was a LIFE time ago, and the best way to acheive success is being a top 4 team on both sides of the ball
Let's go back to the start of the NRL:

2008 - Sea Eagles: 1st
2007 - Storm*: 1st
2006 - Broncos: 12th
2005 - Tigers: 2nd
2004 - Bulldogs: 1st
2003 - Panthers: 3rd
2002 - Roosters: 6th *Ricky Stuart premiership as coach
2001 - Knights: 2nd
2000 - Broncos: 1st
1999 - Storm: 1st
1998 - Broncos:1st

So it is a VERY rare outcome for teams to win premierships with attack that ranks less than fourth.

Ricky Stuart coached it for the Roosters doing what the Storm have done for many, many years now. The Broncos did it after an opening to a season from hell... and that is major outlier in 2006. The Dragons... had the most boring attack ever and somehow managed to grind out a premiership, once.

Very low percentage to win a premiership with attack that is outside the top four teams.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by PigRickman » July 7, 2019, 9:13 pm

*uncomfortable collar pull*
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by bonehead » July 7, 2019, 9:14 pm

greeneyed wrote:Start worrying folks!
I've been worried all year, we look clueless in attack- a lot of our tries are opportunist
Edrick The Entertainer

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 7, 2019, 9:16 pm

Those figures are looking at final rankings. It's round 16. A lot of games still to be played and who's to say where we end up in both attack and defense rankings by finals time. Teams that finish higher up the ladder will invariably have accumulated a better ranking on both sides of the ball. We also know that it's pretty tough to win a GF from outside the top 4.

Right now we sit 4th and have the 4th best F&A. So on balance of things it's fair to say we're 4th best team in the comp.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by PigRickman » July 7, 2019, 9:31 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:16 pm
Those figures are looking at final rankings. It's round 16.
Yep. Abosolutely spot on.
We're one 40-50 thrasing form being in that group

admittedly didnt read the rest of your post but i assume you spoke at length about what a **** great guy i am.
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Azza » July 7, 2019, 9:36 pm

PigRickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:31 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:16 pm
Those figures are looking at final rankings. It's round 16.
Yep. Abosolutely spot on.
We're one 40-50 thrasing form being in that group

admittedly didnt read the rest of your post but i assume you spoke at length about what a **** great guy i am.
You're a turnip.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by PigRickman » July 7, 2019, 9:40 pm

Azza wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:36 pm
PigRickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:31 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:16 pm
Those figures are looking at final rankings. It's round 16.
Yep. Abosolutely spot on.
We're one 40-50 thrasing form being in that group

admittedly didnt read the rest of your post but i assume you spoke at length about what a **** great guy i am.
You're a turnip.
Ridiculous. Take that back.
A single turnip provides way more value to this world than i do.
The List - K.Love, Keno, Zippy's tennis angels, LA Lakers, Noah, Boozer, Lucy's horse tips, Colts, Lucy, Kevin Proctor, Dr Zaius, TR, Tinfoil hatted Gangers and Woody, anyone in Raiders HQ who can point to QBN on a map....

Matt wrote:
July 18, 2018, 3:49 pm
Edrick Lee 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt wrote:
June 25, 2019, 9:29 pm
Reed Mahoney 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Coaching Power Rankings: Ricky Stuart - Top 2, and he ain't 2.

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by greeneyed » July 7, 2019, 10:50 pm

We haven't had anything like a 40-50 thrashing all season. The biggest win has been the 28-0 win all season, the average point advantage has been five points.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Finchy » July 7, 2019, 11:29 pm

It's ironic. We have nearly the best attack for the past 3 years and it got us nowhere. Now we have the second best defence, but still can't win the GF because our attack has dropped off... why can't we have both?

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Northern Raider » July 8, 2019, 8:56 am

PigRickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:40 pm
Azza wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:36 pm
PigRickman wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:31 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
July 7, 2019, 9:16 pm
Those figures are looking at final rankings. It's round 16.
Yep. Abosolutely spot on.
We're one 40-50 thrasing form being in that group

admittedly didnt read the rest of your post but i assume you spoke at length about what a **** great guy i am.
You're a turnip.
Ridiculous. Take that back.
A single turnip provides way more value to this world than i do.
Azza is right. The remainder of my post was mostly comparing you to a turnip......and yes, that could be considered talking you up.
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by cat » July 18, 2019, 11:27 pm

Man i miss the ladder predictor on the nrl website, made it so much easier to guess who will be top 8!

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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Dusty » July 19, 2019, 1:13 pm

cat wrote:Man i miss the ladder predictor on the nrl website, made it so much easier to guess who will be top 8!

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I was only asking the other day if there was another one about... I liked it too!


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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Sid » July 19, 2019, 1:40 pm

Dusty wrote:
cat wrote:Man i miss the ladder predictor on the nrl website, made it so much easier to guess who will be top 8!

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I was only asking the other day if there was another one about... I liked it too!


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I was looking for it over the bye round too
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Re: Are we premiership contenders?

Post by Finchy » July 19, 2019, 3:10 pm

I don't understand the point of the ladder predictor. It's useless. Not only do you need to correctly choose all the winners for the next 64 games, you also need to get the for-and-against right. You choose one game wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. You get the for-and-against wrong and it stuffs the whole thing. It's like trying to win a tipping comp by locking in all the winners for every game at the start of the year, not taking into account weekly form changes and injuries. It's hard enough trying to get 50% of games correct in a tipping comp from week to week, so I don't understand the appeal of the ladder predictor. Is it just fun to hypothetically make the Raiders win the grand final?

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