Are we premiership contenders?

[Aero]

It's true that any team can win on their day, so us winning the comp isn't impossible. But at the moment, I'd say probability of winning the comp is not entirely with us.

People might disagree, but I think to be a true contender you'd need players on the team that either have big game experience or are genuine game winners - or both. These are the players that consistently step up when the game is on the line.

I dont think we have that in key positions.

I'd say Papalii and Bateman have that, Wighton is slowly growing into it and Hodgson has shown he has the skillset to be one of those players.

If we keep going and build on the team's big game experience, I think we can be genuine contenders. But as of this moment, I think we're still short of being contenders.

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[The Nickman]

Yes

[amiafish]

We're definitely second tier behind the top three, but that doesn't mean we can't beat them on our day.

We need to control the ruck better in defense (much as I hate the wrestle, it's a necessity these days). Too much reliance on scrambling and turning up on the inside...you can do that for a while, but it's physically and mentally exhausting.

We also need to sort out our outside backs (cough...Croker...) shooting up out of the line, and other general misreads on inside-20 defense.

I don't think our attack is as much of an issue as some people here. Sure, it's not great, but attack generally doesn't win premierships. As long as it's serviceable, we can win with it...and it's definitely serviceable with the likes of CNK, Jack, Raps, Hodgo, Bateman and Cotric to offer creativity (think Simonsson is starting to look good too).

The big thing this year is that the whole club has bought in to the need to play winning footy. The focus is no longer on improving this or that, but rather, is on finding a way to win week in week out.

I think we'll hold down 4th position, and from there it's fingers crossed.

[Seiffert82]

My biggest concern with attacking inside the opposition 20, is the forward pack who don't understand that they need to run angled lines instead of constantly running those ineffective straight lines, square on with defenders.

We wouldn't be complaining about Hodgson inside the opposition 20 if the structure and plan around him was better.

Yeah, it makes absolutely no sense. I'd love to see the likes of Tapine and Whitehead running more angles. They were doing it so effectively a few seasons ago too. I'm not sure why we don't see it more.

We do have a tendency to **** up the block plays too just quietly. Players stopping in the line too often.

[hrundi89]

We lost to Melbourne by 12 (at full strength).

We lost to Easts by 6 (missing BJ and Tapine)

We lost to Souths by 4 (missing BJ and Tapine)

These are not insurmountable results.

[The Nickman]

We lost to Melbourne by 12 (at full strength).

We lost to Easts by 6 (missing BJ and Tapine)

We lost to Souths by 4 (missing BJ and Tapine)

These are not insurmountable results.

Agreed. And all three of those games had moments in the last ten minutes where we could've snatched the game.

I seriously wasn't unhappy with any of those losses. Only the Manly and Cowboys games have irked me so far this year.

[pacman]

I don't think we're a top 4 team
And right now there's still byes etc to take into consideration.
Let's see where we are after round 26.
If we finish top 4 we've over achieved imo. Especially considering our 7.

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Agree entirely - I'm really liking this season considering my expectation at the start of the year and there's a few individuals that have been absolutely shining. But we lack structure and would have to be very lucky to beat teams come September that are really good at this.

I also can't see this changing with our current half dilemma but I am ever hopeful! If Hodgson can hit top form when he returns, maybe it will be enough. Maybe..

[Sid]

betting agencies are offering punters 13-1 for Raiders to win the premiership, so that's about how well the Raiders are contending right now

[simo]

betting agencies are offering punters 13-1 for Raiders to win the premiership, so that's about how well the Raiders are contending right now

Long range markets like that are heavily influenced by where the money is on. However im pretty happy with those odds. Thats a fair chance in a 16 team field.

[greeneyed]

They're fifth favourite to win the minor premiership, premiership and make the Grand Final, after the Roosters, Storm, Rabbitohs and Sharks...

They're fourth favourite for a top four finish... after Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs...

They're third favourite for a top eight finish... after Roosters and Rabbitohs, looks like SportsBet has already paid out on the Storm...

Can't be unhappy with that.

[The Nickman]

They're fifth favourite to win the minor premiership, premiership and make the Grand Final, after the Roosters, Storm, Rabbitohs and Sharks...

They're fourth favourite for a top four finish... after Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs...

They're third favourite for a top eight finish... after Roosters and Rabbitohs, looks like SportsBet has already paid out on the Storm...

Can't be unhappy with that.

That sounds pretty spot-on really. It would only be our lack of big-game experience in the last two years that have us as fifth to win the comp overall. There’s a real uncertainty to how we’ll aim up in the finals

But I like where we’re at, and as others have said in this thread already, if we make the top 4 and don’t have another injury crisis, we’re every bit a chance of going the whole way in 2019!

[dubby]

In some ways this season reminds me of 87

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[FuiFui BradBrad]

We can do it, we just need to improve our offense, defence and get some rule changes


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[Lui_Bon]

I can feel my ludicrous optimism starting to build. You know it will happen to you, too!

We are this year's fairytale. Everyone else has had a go, except the Titans, and that would just be a fix.

I guess I'd say yes we can and will win it all.

I do actually have a reason - it's not that we are great, it's that all other teams have failings. The Roosters can't back it up, they have no Keary, and I actually think with Aubusson in the centres and a pack that is having its depth tested, they will fail the motivation test. Souths are now clunky in the forwards and some of those blokes are light on motivation (ie the Burgii) and Reynolds will be broken. The Storm are just not that great. The Sharks - well, they look pretty good, but maybe it will all be too much for Morris.

OK, some of that's pretty flimsy rationalising but I am just stoked by our defence. If they can't score on us they won't beat us.

[BadnMean]

I can feel my ludicrous optimism starting to build. You know it will happen to you, too!

We are this year's fairytale. Everyone else has had a go, except the Titans, and that would just be a fix.

I guess I'd say yes we can and will win it all.

I do actually have a reason - it's not that we are great, it's that all other teams have failings. The Roosters can't back it up, they have no Keary, and I actually think with Aubusson in the centres and a pack that is having its depth tested, they will fail the motivation test. Souths are now clunky in the forwards and some of those blokes are light on motivation (ie the Burgii) and Reynolds will be broken. The Storm are just not that great. The Sharks - well, they look pretty good, but maybe it will all be too much for Morris.

OK, some of that's pretty flimsy rationalising but I am just stoked by our defence. If they can't score on us they won't beat us.

Is anyone else allowed in this conversation?

We just beat the Sharks at full strength. Bloody close but we got there. Add Hodgo in the mix and we are undeniably a stronger team too...

Our bench was poor in that game so a fit Hors would improve our 17 too. Young I still see as on the fringe.

[Peter]

The competition is so close this year that the Storm are a Cameron Smith injury away from being a bottom 8 team. We are a Jack Wighton ‘Jarryd Hayne’ purple patch of form from being a top 2 team.

It’s impossible to pick who will win it this year, so far out from the finals.

Regardless where we finish, I think that the 8 teams contesting the finals this year will be the strongest that we have seen in many years.

[Botman]

Regardless where we finish, I think that the 8 teams contesting the finals this year will be the strongest that we have seen in many years.

Interesting, i would go the reverse. I agree it will be one of the closest we've seen in many years, but i think thats because its the weakest. Aside from the roosters and storm, who i think at their best are a cut above the rest, the difference between 3rd and 10th isnt much.

[Peter]

If you look back over the past 10 years there has always been at least two teams who are considered a cut above the rest and this year is no different. I’m more talking about the fact that anyone in the top 7 right now could go deep into the finals. Eighth place could be fought out by teams like the Cowboys, Dragons and Panthers (among others) who can all beat anyone on their day.

[Lui_Bon]

I can feel my ludicrous optimism starting to build. You know it will happen to you, too!

We are this year's fairytale. Everyone else has had a go, except the Titans, and that would just be a fix.

I guess I'd say yes we can and will win it all.

I do actually have a reason - it's not that we are great, it's that all other teams have failings. The Roosters can't back it up, they have no Keary, and I actually think with Aubusson in the centres and a pack that is having its depth tested, they will fail the motivation test. Souths are now clunky in the forwards and some of those blokes are light on motivation (ie the Burgii) and Reynolds will be broken. The Storm are just not that great. The Sharks - well, they look pretty good, but maybe it will all be too much for Morris.

OK, some of that's pretty flimsy rationalising but I am just stoked by our defence. If they can't score on us they won't beat us.

Is anyone else allowed in this conversation?

We just beat the Sharks at full strength. Bloody close but we got there. Add Hodgo in the mix and we are undeniably a stronger team too...

Our bench was poor in that game so a fit Hors would improve our 17 too. Young I still see as on the fringe.

You are welcome into the church of nonrickcentric optimism brother!

[Lui_Bon]

Regardless where we finish, I think that the 8 teams contesting the finals this year will be the strongest that we have seen in many years.

Interesting, i would go the reverse. I agree it will be one of the closest we've seen in many years, but i think thats because its the weakest. Aside from the roosters and storm, who i think at their best are a cut above the rest, the difference between 3rd and 10th isnt much.

Yeah I agree, that usually the argument is that 12 teams should make the eight, but this year it's more like 10 teams should miss the 8... Hence why will win everything. Or at least, the only thing.

[pickles]

If we want to be contenders the next 5 games are critical.

Eels
Dragons
Tigers
Panthers
Warriors

Win 4 of these and add the bye and we are basically guaranteed to make the 8.

Chooks
Storm
Sea eagles
Sharks

We probably need to win 2 of these to make the top 4 and knocking off either the storm or chooks or both would certainly put us in the contenders bucket.

[Azza]

If we want to be contenders the next 5 games are critical.

Eels
Dragons
Tigers
Panthers
Warriors

Win 4 of these and add the bye and we are basically guaranteed to make the 8.

Chooks
Storm
Sea eagles
Sharks

We probably need to win 2 of these to make the top 4 and knocking off either the storm or chooks or both would certainly put us in the contenders bucket.

Realistically we will probably have an off week once in those next 5 games at least, so I expect the last few weeks (which is a tough run in) will be critical.

[Northern Raider]

If we want to be contenders the next 5 games are critical.

Eels
Dragons
Tigers
Panthers
Warriors

Win 4 of these and add the bye and we are basically guaranteed to make the 8.

Chooks
Storm
Sea eagles
Sharks

We probably need to win 2 of these to make the top 4 and knocking off either the storm or chooks or both would certainly put us in the contenders bucket.

That last game is a tough one. Sharks were pretty impressive beating QLD last night. Really don't know how they fit that team under the cap though.

[FuiFui BradBrad]

If we want to be contenders the next 5 games are critical.

Eels
Dragons
Tigers
Panthers
Warriors

Win 4 of these and add the bye and we are basically guaranteed to make the 8.

Chooks
Storm
Sea eagles
Sharks

We probably need to win 2 of these to make the top 4 and knocking off either the storm or chooks or both would certainly put us in the contenders bucket.

Yeah I just had a look at our draw and it was enough to change my thoughts on us not being contenders.
Eels (In Darwin)
Dragons (Away)
Tigers (Home)
Panthers (Away)
Warriors (Away)
I think 4/5 is doable in this group

Roosters (Home)
Storm (Away)
Manly (Home)
Sharks (Away)
Warriors (Home)
Here I think 3/5 wouldn't be too unrealistic. I'd be happy with 2/5 though

So that's potentially 7/10. My stance has changed.

[dubby]

In the next month we have one game at home. That's not great.

3 of the final 5 are at home, of which one is against one of the 2 best teams in the comp.

This is not an easy task.

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[FuiFui BradBrad]

In the next month we have one game at home. That's not great.

3 of the final 5 are at home, of which one is against one of the 2 best teams in the comp.

This is not an easy task.

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I change my opinion. We’re not a hope

[finch]

Imagine Joey Leilua, rising from his hospital bed, ripping tubes out, palming hospital trolleys and patients alike out of the way with his big don't argues as he storms toward the ground on grand final day... Warming up in his blue gown...

It's gonna be the NRL story of the season.

Glad I'm not the only one who has foreseen this.....it's inevitable, really.
Even if BJ happens to get hit by a bus running across Anzac Parade in his blue gown we're still a good chance.
Anyone who even doubts we're contenders this year is a complete coward and needs to find another hobby.

[Beejay]

The Roosters have been playing most of the season with a backrower at hooker, and have been missing the form 5/8 of the last year recently as well. Both due back before finals. Latrell just got a massively orchestrated rev up.
It’s going to take a very impressive defensive performance to stop teddy and Co come finals time. Attack is going to need to be on point to beat their defence they’ve mastered for years now.

Plus the Storm somehow look better again this year somehow? How does that always seem to happen?

Sharks attack looks the best it been in years, and that team are sneaky strong while spluttering along with a few injuries.

Wayne knows just how to whip a premiership team home, and has one there, they will be ready.

This is going to be a tough tight comp, and real hard to win. But winnable.
Unlike 2017, when nobody was ever going to beat that Storm team.

[pickles]

From my perspective with the position we have put ourselves in a top 4 finish is in our hands.

We could easily still stuff it up in lots of different ways but at this point we don’t need luck or other results to go our way, we just need to play good footy and win the games we should.

Most of our wins this season have been on the back of our defence and if we can keep working on that it is the style of footy that can win the big games.

I wouldn’t say I’m excited yet, cautiously optimistic.

[magoo]

I would love to see us beat 1 of the top teams in a hard fought battle to inspire a little more confidence. Atm I'm hopeful, a large dose of confidence would be great for the team and the fans

[BadnMean]

I would love to see us beat 1 of the top teams in a hard fought battle to inspire a little more confidence. Atm I'm hopeful, a large dose of confidence would be great for the team and the fans

Yeah I'd feel much better if we managed to guts out a real tight one against the defending premiers or something... and just imagine if we did it without some of our best players while they were at full strength... it would take something like that to get me dreaming of October.

[Roger Kenworthy]

If you're top 4 you are a great chance. The Storm are the most consistent team over the past 5 years by a long way yet they have only won one premiership. It's all about momentum at the back end of the season these days rather than who is the most consistent side.

I also don't think you can have the mentality of "this is a building year" in the modern NRL. We had that mentality in 2016 amongst the fans and then couldn't even make the 8 the next two years. If you are good enough to be in the top 4 then not winning the Premiership is a failure.

[Hazza]

Any team with our record should really be regarded as a contender.

It's an interesting question though. I'm sure most people would say we haven't reached our potential, particularly in attack. So we have been quite solid without being quite there with the best form in the comp. Injuries to key players hasn't helped.

Form suggests we are exactly where we should be. We are generally beating clubs below us and losing to the handful above us. We should really have beaten Souths, but should also have nailed Manly and the Cows.

It's only the Storm who have towelled us up, but that was after a short turnaround and they are a well drilled team. IMO only Cronulla have picked us apart for a good chunk of a game. The Roosters was a disappointing performance, but they don't scare me as much as Cronulla.

We'll be OK if our attack starts clicking. I think we become genuine contenders if Hodgo gets his combo right with the halves in our attacking 20. That's the one part of the game which is really letting us down compared to the top 3-4 teams.

The storm didn't towell us up at all. They started all over us but if you remember we were getting back in the game, then threw an intercept that could've easy gone our way, we score that we're back within 6. Wasn't as much in that game as it looked. Against both Souths and Easts we were decimated so can't read anything in to either of those 2 games. And still should've beaten Souths with our entire right edge out, there was a bees in that game.

[The Nickman]

Any team with our record should really be regarded as a contender.

It's an interesting question though. I'm sure most people would say we haven't reached our potential, particularly in attack. So we have been quite solid without being quite there with the best form in the comp. Injuries to key players hasn't helped.

Form suggests we are exactly where we should be. We are generally beating clubs below us and losing to the handful above us. We should really have beaten Souths, but should also have nailed Manly and the Cows.

It's only the Storm who have towelled us up, but that was after a short turnaround and they are a well drilled team. IMO only Cronulla have picked us apart for a good chunk of a game. The Roosters was a disappointing performance, but they don't scare me as much as Cronulla.

We'll be OK if our attack starts clicking. I think we become genuine contenders if Hodgo gets his combo right with the halves in our attacking 20. That's the one part of the game which is really letting us down compared to the top 3-4 teams.

The storm didn't towell us up at all. They started all over us but if you remember we were getting back in the game, then threw an intercept that could've easy gone our way, we score that we're back within 6. Wasn't as much in that game as it looked. Against both Souths and Easts we were decimated so can't read anything in to either of those 2 games. And still should've beaten Souths with our entire right edge out, there was a bees in that game.

We also go to golden point with the Roosters if Cotric doesn't completely balls that pass up to Croker.

All three games could've still gone our way. The only games I've been disappointed in this year were the Cowboys in Canberra and Manly.

[Hazza]

Make the top 4 anything can happen. That's obviously the goal. I have no doubt on our day, at full strength we can more than match it with the best sides. At this stage you'd have to say the storm are the standouts though.