Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 25 May 3:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 12:30pm
Katrina Fanning Shield – Boomanulla Buffaloes V Valley Dragons: 12:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Mostly sunny. Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower at night. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent. Min 4 Max 20
Round 10 2019. South Sydney Rabbitohs 16 - Canberra Raiders 12. The Raiders turned up to play and a performance of that quality would produce a different result, most days. The match had the intensity of a finals game. Unfortunately, the Rabbitohs just had a little bit too much class. They deserved their win. The Raiders are significantly impacted by injury at present, and they were missing their entire first choice right edge. Rapana, Leilua, Bateman, Tapine. That is a lot of talent and strike power that is presently missing from the team. Coach Ricky Stuart was rightly proud of how the younger players stood up.
More on Round 10: As I saw it
In Round 11, the Canberra Raiders are again at home and face the North Queensland Cowboys for a second time this season. Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has made just one change to his team. Joe Tapine will return early from an ankle injury on the bench, with Sebastian Kris, who made his debut last week, dropping to the extended bench.
There is also only one change for the Cowboys, with Gideon Gela-Mosby replacing injured winger Ben Hampton. Hooker Jake Granville was cleared of a dangerous contact charge at the judiciary on Tuesday night and will take his place in the team. Josh McGuire (calf) has been named on the reserves list.
Indigenous Round: Round 11 is Indigenous Round and the Raiders will play in their specially designed Indigenous jersey for 2019.
Late changes: The Raiders cut Aidan Sezer and Royce Hunt from their squad on Friday afternoon, with Sebastian Kris and Emre Guler remaining on the extended bench. The Cowboys omitted Corey Jensen and Jake Clifford.
History: The Raiders have won 24 of 42 matches against the North Queensland Cowboys. However, 14 of those wins came in the Cowboys' first decade in competition. In the most recent decade, the Raiders have won eight matches between the clubs, the Cowboys 11. At Canberra Stadium, the Raiders have won 15 of 21 matches, and three of the past five.
The Raiders have now won the past three matches straight against the Cowboys. In Round 8 last year, the Raiders produced their first win in Townsville since 2006 - the 18-8 victory breaking a nine game losing streak in the far north. Canberra backed it up in Round 18, with the Raiders defeating the Cowboys 38-12 at Canberra Stadium. Earlier this season, the Raiders again won in Townsville, producing a 30-12 victory.
2019 Round 4: Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys
2018 Round 18: Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys
2018 Round 8: Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys
Form: Raiders: WLWLL
Cowboys: WLWLW
The Cowboys suffered a four game losing streak earlier this season, but their recent form line has improved. They have recently recorded wins over the Warriors and Titans - and produced a solid 17-10 win over the Eels in their last outing.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.42 favourites in the match, while the Cowboys are paying $2.85. The Cowboys have 7.5 points start in the line betting. The Cowboys odds have drifted over the course of the week.
Stat attack: It is a battle between fourth (Raiders) and 13th (Cowboys) on the ladder. Canberra has a six and four record to open the season, while the Cowboys are four and six. Canberra has won three of five games played at home, while the Cowboys have won one of four games played away. The Raiders have won all four of their matches against bottom eight teams, while the Cowboys have won one of three games against top eight opposition.
Canberra's attacking record is starting to look a big average - but it is still better than North Queensland's. The Raiders have averaged 21 points (3.3 tries) this season, compared with 16 points (2.8 tries) for the Cowboys. Canberra's attack now ranks ninth in the league, North Queensland 11th. The Storm is the only team with a defensive record better than the Raiders. Canberra has conceded 15 points (2.5 tries) per game this year, compared with 22 points (3.9 tries) by North Queensland.
The two teams complete sets at the same rate (77 per cent). While the Raiders have a slightly better average error count (9-10), they have been less disciplined, with the Raiders conceding an average eight penalties per game, the Cowboys just five. The Raiders rank second in the league for penalties conceded, while only the Eels have conceded fewer penalties than the Cowboys. The Cowboys rank first in the league for possession share (52 per cent), but the Raiders aren't far behind (51 per cent).
The Cowboys make slightly more runs (181-169) and running metres (1538-1527) per game. The Cowboys also rank first in the competition for post contact metres (482 per game), while the Raiders are the middle of the pack in that department (434 per game). However, the Cowboys rank last in the league for line breaks - at 2.6 per game, compared with 3.4 for the Green Machine. The Raiders also make more tackle breaks - 32 per game, compared with 24 for the Cowboys.
The Raiders now rank second in the NRL for kicking metres - which is a huge difference from recent seasons. They average 603 metres from 21 kicks per game, compared with 484 metres from 21 kicks for the Cowboys. There is little doubt that the Raiders are more aggressive in their kicking game this season... but to some degree the kicking metres are making up for lower running metres gained.
According to Fox Sports Lab, the Raiders are top four for least running metres conceded (1341 per game), but the Cowboys are not too far behind, conceding 1391 (ranked eighth). The Raiders have missed an average of 30 tackles per game, the Cowboys 32 - and the Raiders have a slightly better tackle efficiency rate.
Our tip: This is a danger game for the Raiders. They have played the top two teams in the past two weeks, and come up with two narrow losses. Last weekend's clash with the Rabbitohs was a match of semi-final intensity. There is a risk that they'll come into this contest a little flat. In addition, the Raiders are still significantly impacted by injury, with John Bateman, Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana all on the sidelines. There's also little doubt that the Cowboys have improved since the Raiders met them in Round 4. The Cowboys forward pack is firing, with Jason Taumalolo back on the park - and they have found a more effective spine line up. The Raiders will need to come to the match with the same intensity in defence as they did last week, if they are to contain them. If they do that, the Raiders should win. Raiders by four.
What they're saying:
Sam Williams: "We've show we can match it with the best in the competition the last couple of weeks so we're not to far off it. But we have to make sure we get the win this week, you can't keep losing if you are showing signs of improvement. They have found a little bit of form and have started to find their feet. I think the score line flattered us a little bit the last time we were up there, it was a really tough game, so I don't think there's any reason to be complacent. They're a good side that is coming into form."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Bailey Simonsson
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Nick Cotric
5. Michael Oldfield
6. Jack Wighton
7. Sam Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Siliva Havili
15. Joe Tapine
16. Sia Soliola
17. Corey Horsburgh
18. Aidan Sezer
19. Emre Guler
20. Sebastian Kris
21. Royce Hunt
Injury/Suspension
Jordan Rapana (Knee) Round 13-14
Joey Leilua (Neck) Indefinite
John Bateman (Eye-Socket) Round 15-17
Luke Bateman (Knee) Round 11-12
Brad Abbey (Knee) Season
North Queensland Cowboys
1. Jordan Kahu
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Justin O’Neill
4. Tom Opacic
5. Gideon Gela-Mosby
6. John Asiata
7. Michael Morgan (C)
8. Matt Scott
9. Jake Granville
10. Jordan McLean
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Coen Hess
13. Jason Taumalolo
14. Kurt Baptiste
15. Mitch Dunn
16. Scott Bolton
17. Francis Molo
19. Shane Wright
20. Josh McGuire
Officials
Referees: Henry Perenara, Jon Stone
Sideline Officials: Jeff Younis, Drew Oultram
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersCowboys
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2019 #FromAllAngles
Mounties team: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
