Williams or Sezer?

[Beejay]

I dont' want to wait until Kikau terrorises Sam Williams until Sezer gets another shot. Sezer should be back in.

[Northern Raider]

Article spells out just what I was thinking; Sezer must know that he is potentially only about 1-2 more losses or Sammy getting mauled by Kikau and Surgess from being back in FG for the rest of the year. That may or may not happen but it's well worth him knuckling down, working on finding his running game again as a point of difference from Sam at the moment and hanging in for a month or so to see what shakes out.

Reckon you are right. The next change will be the last one barring injury. Next 3 weeks are Panthers, Roosters, Rabbits. All potential losses, in which case Williams will be under massive pressure to retain his spot. No longer can he rely the "don't change a winning team" philosophy.

On the flip side winning some or all those games will go a long way to locking him into the no7 for an extended period. Particularly given the following games are against lesser opposition.

[The Nickman]

I dont' want to wait until Kikau terrorises Sam Williams until Sezer gets another shot. Sezer should be back in.

Me too. I love Williams, but I firmly believe Sezer is the man for the job, and needs to be back in the NRL side building combinations ASAP.

[Beejay]

After that Manly game.
Sam Williams now averages 1 ‘Try cause’ per game, which is the highest in our team by double. He also averages 1.6 ‘Line break causes’, which is the highest in our team by double.

I wonder if Kikau will see much ball on Saturday.

[Bennyinthewest]

For me it's not just those stats, it's the guys outside him become nervous as well. Great bloke, but ordinary defender

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[RedRaider]

FTR Beejay, which player was 'credited' with the 'try cause' for the final Manly try. We saw Jack line up the man with the ball and JC come in to assist. As he did so the ball is passed to the Manly winger for the try. Did that pesky pack of statisticians come up with a 'try cause' for Sam. Which try would that be in the Manly match?

Who were the Top 3 missed tacklers by the Raiders? I know you don't like this stat but every club takes it down for very good reasons.

I don't know that I've ever seen too many players 'terrorized' on a footy field playing FG. Outplayed, sure, but terrorized is very dramatic. Only a couple more sleeps until we see the outcome.

[BadnMean]

After that Manly game.
Sam Williams now averages 1 ‘Try cause’ per game, which is the highest in our team by double. He also averages 1.6 ‘Line break causes’, which is the highest in our team by double.

I wonder if Kikau will see much ball on Saturday.

Hmmm just had a look. I was firmly in the Team Sammy camp.

But those two stats also put him at the worst defensive half in the NRL And if you include 5/8s who've played at least a few games too, he's still the worst. I actually wouldn't have thought that.

It's still a small sample where a single bad or good game can move you several places up or down, potentially but I'm quite surprised. I thought he'd ben better defensively and that overall in the league, he'd be about an average defensive half or not far off this year.

There is still the intangible factor of how well our team operates in other facets with Sam there and that for the first time in years we were winning close games and not losing them and looked like a team who could control a match...

But I'm on the fence now and it will need to improve- we can't be having the worst defensive half in the comp and be thinking about a real challenge unless he is making sure our attack is super slick and kicking brilliantly on a regular basis.

Edit: his missed tackles in total or on average aren't bad really... Suggests teams are picking their moment against him or he's only bad when isolated?

[gerg]

Early nomination for thread of the year. At least the most prolific thread with posters repeating the same argument a million times over.

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[The Nickman]

Woah, this thread isn't even a month old yet and it's at twelve pages!

[Beejay]

FTR Beejay, which player was 'credited' with the 'try cause' for the final Manly try. We saw Jack line up the man with the ball and JC come in to assist. As he did so the ball is passed to the Manly winger for the try. Did that pesky pack of statisticians come up with a 'try cause' for Sam. Which try would that be in the Manly match?

Who were the Top 3 missed tacklers by the Raiders? I know you don't like this stat but every club takes it down for very good reasons.

I don't know that I've ever seen too many players 'terrorized' on a footy field playing FG. Outplayed, sure, but terrorized is very dramatic. Only a couple more sleeps until we see the outcome.

I can answer your questions if you want, but what are you trying to prove here? That Sam isn't that bad of a defender? or that Sezer is worse? or that it doesn't really matter?

[Woodgers]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

[zim]

One thing I'll be hoping for from Sam this week is less offside penalties.

[simo]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

[Woodgers]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

Not disputing those (I don't think they're that bad as long as we're getting good returns from his kicking game). I was suggesting if he falls off Kikau 3 times this week like every other halfback does, next week those stats are elevated but won't give the overall picture of 2019. That's what I meant.

[simo]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

Not disputing those (I don't think they're that bad as long as we're getting good returns from his kicking game). I was suggesting if he falls off Kikau 3 times this week like every other halfback does, next week those stats are elevated but won't give the overall picture of 2019. That's what I meant.

Hes already the worst though. We shouldnt be playing a clear liability against such a key strength of penriths. You absolutely count them.

[The Nickman]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

Not disputing those (I don't think they're that bad as long as we're getting good returns from his kicking game). I was suggesting if he falls off Kikau 3 times this week like every other halfback does, next week those stats are elevated but won't give the overall picture of 2019. That's what I meant.

Hes already the worst though. We shouldnt be playing a clear liability against such a key strength of penriths. You absolutely count them.

Nuh-uh.

[simo]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

Not disputing those (I don't think they're that bad as long as we're getting good returns from his kicking game). I was suggesting if he falls off Kikau 3 times this week like every other halfback does, next week those stats are elevated but won't give the overall picture of 2019. That's what I meant.

Hes already the worst though. We shouldnt be playing a clear liability against such a key strength of penriths. You absolutely count them.

Nuh-uh.

Yes you are so

[Woodgers]

I'm not firmly in either camp on this debate so i've been staying out of it, but what I would say is using Sam's defence this weekend against Kikau to enhance stats and the point that he can't defend isn't really playing fair. Chances are Sezer would miss any tackle on that behemoth also. He ran over the top of Sam Burgess amongst others last week, he's virtually unplayable 1 on 1. A more telling review of our defence this week isn't can a bloke tackle someone 40kgs heavier but more how our edges backsit that player in the structure and how fast we are up on him before he gets momentum up.

His poor defensive stats are from previous weeks. People are using those because this week hes up against someone who is hard for the best defenders to tackle. Definitely wouldnt say its unfair in any way to use those stats

Not disputing those (I don't think they're that bad as long as we're getting good returns from his kicking game). I was suggesting if he falls off Kikau 3 times this week like every other halfback does, next week those stats are elevated but won't give the overall picture of 2019. That's what I meant.

Hes already the worst though. We shouldnt be playing a clear liability against such a key strength of penriths. You absolutely count them.

As I said i'm not advocating strongly for either. You can count them but they won't tell the entire picture of 2019 and as I said before in hypothetical world there is no guarantee Sezer wouldn't miss the same tackles. Kikau has been doing this to better defenders than halves for fun this year and last, to the point where I reckon in 2019 Penrith are so hellbent to get him the ball to create something out of nothing that the fluidity of their attack is suffering IMO.

[simo]

But we do already know sezer is a better defender than williams. We know this prior to the game. We have the ability to select the far better defender who doesnt need to be offside to tackle. Why would we not make that call and know we gave ourselves the best possible chance? Williams does not bring enough on the other side of the ball to outweigh his putrid defence. Defence so bad it hurts the defence of those around him who try and defend like hes not even there (and rightly so)

[woppadingo]

Im now back in the Sezer camp.
Better defender.
Just realised that maybe the reason Hodgson is not using the backline enough is because Williams isnt demanding the ball?

[TongueFTW]

Has to be Sezer this week, you would think.

[Beejay]

Woodgers, what a lot of us are advocating is not compiling stats on Sam. It's that Sam probably shouldnt be in this game because of his already proven defensive problems. Up against Kikau, it's possible Sam loses us this game. Sezer is a much stronger defender.

Sam just hasn't proven himself a decent enough attacking player to make up for these weaknesses IMO.

[Green eyed Mick]

Has to be Sezer this week, you would think.

I thought and I still think Williams. We lost on the weekend because our pack was owned by the Manly pack. If they play like that this weekend, we'll lose to the Panthers no matter who is at 7.

[Roger Kenworthy]

You guys are starting to sell me that we have the next immortal in reggies. I now only have vague memories of how terrible and panicked in attack Sezer has been for the past couple seasons.

[FROG]

If we are discussing stats.. How about how many times they've kicked the ball out on the full. How many repeat sets they've forced. Kick meters etc. If defense is your only requirement for half then I'd be playing neither of them. Elliot would be wearing 7.

[LP Raider]

You guys are absolutely writing off the fact that we might want to play him this year??

Wow. Just wow.

It's called managing your cap.

But George Williams isn’t coming until 2020. Why do we need to leave a hole in the squad for this year? Doesn’t even make sense.

He is signed next year, yeh.

Not sure what part of having someone sitting on the pine for 600k doesn't make sense to you.

Wow indeed, get rid of him now if you have the opportunity.

Better having a 250k average half in reggies rather than paying 600k. Deserves a Good **** grief.

[gerg]

If we are discussing stats.. How about how many times they've kicked the ball out on the full. How many repeat sets they've forced. Kick meters etc. If defense is your only requirement for half then I'd be playing neither of them. Elliot would be wearing 7.

What about 20 metre spirals to either side?

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[Northern Raider]

If we are discussing stats.. How about how many times they've kicked the ball out on the full. How many repeat sets they've forced. Kick meters etc. If defense is your only requirement for half then I'd be playing neither of them. Elliot would be wearing 7.

I think you missed the key part of that argument. Basically peope saying Williams does not offer enough with the ball to offset his defensive issues.

[RedRaider]

FTR Beejay, which player was 'credited' with the 'try cause' for the final Manly try. We saw Jack line up the man with the ball and JC come in to assist. As he did so the ball is passed to the Manly winger for the try. Did that pesky pack of statisticians come up with a 'try cause' for Sam. Which try would that be in the Manly match?

Who were the Top 3 missed tacklers by the Raiders? I know you don't like this stat but every club takes it down for very good reasons.

I don't know that I've ever seen too many players 'terrorized' on a footy field playing FG. Outplayed, sure, but terrorized is very dramatic. Only a couple more sleeps until we see the outcome.

I can answer your questions if you want, but what are you trying to prove here? That Sam isn't that bad of a defender? or that Sezer is worse? or that it doesn't really matter?

Beejay, I simply don't know the answers. No games, no plots, just a fan asking some questions.

[simo]

If we are discussing stats.. How about how many times they've kicked the ball out on the full. How many repeat sets they've forced. Kick meters etc. If defense is your only requirement for half then I'd be playing neither of them. Elliot would be wearing 7.

I think you missed the key part of that argument. Basically peope saying Williams does not offer enough with the ball to offset his defensive issues.

This is a very common thing. The argument for williams is basically his “the vibe” is good enough to offset his poor defence and below average attack whereas sezers “the vibe” is somehow **** and his below average attack and above average defence isnt enough to cover it

[yeh raiders]

You guys are starting to sell me that we have the next immortal in reggies. I now only have vague memories of how terrible and panicked in attack Sezer has been for the past couple seasons.

Haha correct. Only an absolute lemon would think the penny’s going to drop and Sezer magically becomes anything more than an average player.

[zim]

Im now back in the Sezer camp.
Better defender.
Just realised that maybe the reason Hodgson is not using the backline enough is because Williams isnt demanding the ball?

I've tried to figure this out too. I have no idea.
Part of me thinks Hodgo just does whatever he wants. Sam and Jack are told to make themselves available but Stick leaves it to Hodgo to call what is happening.
Or everyone's happy with the direction of the attack just not the outcomes.
Or as you said Williams just isn't getting on that ball enough.

If it's anything but the 3rd one we probably wouldn't see much of a change with Sezer.

[Botman]

If the criteria for the Immortals is being a better footballer than Sam Williams, the immortals had best prepare itself for a MAJOR influx.

[Botman]

Edit: his missed tackles in total or on average aren't bad really... Suggests teams are picking their moment against him or he's only bad when isolated?

He does well in general play to try and stay out of the frame, his mistackle count benefits greatly given he shoots the line 4-5 times a game and gets fresh air. Hard to make a tackle when you've come in on a back rower and let the fullback slide through untouched

But mostly it's isolation. That's the ball game for our opposition halves. Get numbers on Williams side, William's inside man with late ball playing, hold his outside man with the threat of the fullback, and hit the back rower flat one on one with Williams.
It's not points every time they do it, sometimes he just makes the tackle, sometimes the backrower inside him get there in time to help, Beej is actually pretty good at coming in to help himself (which of course leaves us 3-1, if an offload comes) and CNK is doing a great job of coming in and lending his support too
It's not a slam dunk, but it's fair to say every half decent play maker identifies this avenue as an area to expose us with

[Botman]

Im now back in the Sezer camp.
Better defender.
Just realised that maybe the reason Hodgson is not using the backline enough is because Williams isnt demanding the ball?

I've tried to figure this out too. I have no idea.
Part of me thinks Hodgo just does whatever he wants. Sam and Jack are told to make themselves available but Stick leaves it to Hodgo to call what is happening.
Or everyone's happy with the direction of the attack just not the outcomes.
Or as you said Williams just isn't getting on that ball enough.

If it's anything but the 3rd one we probably wouldn't see much of a change with Sezer.

I think its even simplier... regardless of who is in the halves, Hodgson knows they're not any good, and lack any level of creativity in the red zone, they're likely going to throw a bad ball, not engage the line, shuffle it out to the back rowers or centres early without any space or shape, or most likely turn the **** thing back inside for a hit up and set up for a 5th tackle kick...

i think Hodgson feels, and rightly so, that he's best off trying to create in the red zone than to give it to impotent halves who'll just **** it up anyways... so he takes it on, and takes it on, and takes it... and that sometimes results in him over playing his hand and playing poorly but there is no reason to trust any half at this club right now... which kind of feels justified.

I dont think any of this changes regardless of who's there, you hope George Williams comes and changes that. At our best in 16, despite being a star, Hodgson let Sezer and Austin cook, because they had put the runs on the board for him to trust them... since then it's been a wasteland