2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day
Posted: August 7, 2018, 4:17 pm
2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Sunday 12 August 2:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning frost. Partly cloudy Partly cloudy. Patches of morning frost. Light winds becoming northwest to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min -1 Max 12
Round 21 2018. Penrith Panthers 40 - Canberra Raiders 31. Yet more heartbreak. The Raiders led by 14 points at half time. At almost the mid point of the second half, the Raiders led 30-18. They still led, narrowly, with less than eight minutes remaining. But for the fourth time in a row, the Panthers ran over the top of the Raiders in the final stages.
2018 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
More on Round 21: As I saw it
In Round 22, the Raiders return home to Canberra Stadium to meet the Wests Tigers, the first of three straight games at home. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged line up from the team that lost to the Penrith Panthers last week. For the Wests Tigers, Malakai Watene-Zelezniak comes in for Corey Thompson (ankle) on the wing. Luke Garner has been named in the second row, with Elijah Taylor moving to lock and Matt Eisenhuth to the bench. Robbie Rochow has been included the bench, with Jacob Liddle dropping to the reserves list. It is possible Mahe Fonua could return from a broken arm, after being named as a reserve.
Late changes: For the Raiders, Makahesi Makatoa and Emre Guler were omitted from the Canberra Raiders' extended bench on Saturday afternoon, with no other changes to the team. The Wests Tigers omitted Chris McQueen and Tyson Gamble from their squad.
History: The Raiders have won 16 of 34 matches against the Wests Tigers, a 47 per cent win rate. Including games played against the Wests Magpies and Balmain Tigers prior to the joint venture, the Raiders have won 49 of 91 contests. But that 54 per cent win rate is significantly boosted by the 75 per cent win rate against the Magpies. The Tigers have always been a bit of a bogey team for the Raiders... excepting the 1989 Grand Final.
The Raiders have, however, won six of the past 10 matches between the clubs, and the last four straight. Canberra won 48-12 earlier this year against the Tigers at Campbelltown. They also won the only match played between the clubs in 2017, 46-6, at Canberra Stadium. Canberra topped 50 points in both wins over the Tigers in 2016. The Raiders have a relatively poor record at home against the Wests Tigers, winning just half of the 18 matches played at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders, however, won four of five matches played against Balmain at the venue, and all seven played against the Wests Magpies.
2018 Round 15 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
2017 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
This week’s "History Happens"? Let's go back to the final round of 2016, with the Wests Tigers finals hopes on the line... and the Raiders aiming for the top two. And what a magic afternoon it turned out to be... and most famous for Joey Leilua's magical flick pass to Jordan Rapana.
2016 Round 26 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Form: In the five matches since the two teams last met in Round 15, the Tigers have a LWWLW form line. They have beaten the Dragons and Rabbitohs in that time, and defeated the Newcastle Knights 25-16 in their last outing. The Raiders are on a WWLLL form line in their past five.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.56 favourites in the match, with the Tigers paying $2.45. The Tigers have 5.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between ninth (Tigers) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. Canberra has an eight and 12 record in 2018, while the Tigers are 10 and 10. Canberra has played nine matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. The Tigers have won five of 10 matches against top eight sides.
The Raiders are ranked first in the NRL for total points (489) scored in 2018. They are just one try behind the first ranked team for most tries this season (Rabbitohs 83, Raiders 82). The Tigers rank dead last in the league in attack (16 points and 2.5 tries scored per match, compared with 25 points and 4.1 tries per match for the Raiders). The Tigers, however, have a better defensive record, conceding 18 points (2.9 tries) per match, compared with 24 points (3.8 tries) for the Raiders. The Raiders rank fourth worst in defence, the Tigers fourth best.
The Raiders remain the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+15), and have a better points differential than three teams above them (Tigers -36, Warriors -14, Broncos -6).
The Tigers average slightly more running metres (Tigers 1482m, Raiders 1423m per match) and more kicking metres (Tigers 496m, Raiders 386m per match). The Tigers have a slightly better completion rate (Tigers 79 per cent, Raiders 77 per cent), with both teams averaging 10 errors per match. The Raiders are the least disciplined team in the competition, ranking first for penalties conceded. They concede 10 penalties per match, compared with eight for the Tigers. The Tigers receive the fewest penalties in the NRL, an average of seven per match, compared with 8.5 for the Raiders. The Tigers make more offloads (11-9 per match on average), while the Raiders make more line breaks (Raiders five, Tigers three per match).
The teams have a similar tackle efficiency rate (Tigers missing 38 of 391 tackles required on average per match, the Raiders missing 33 of 340).
Our tip: The Raiders now only have "mathematical" chance of making the finals. They must win every remaining match - and depend on the Warriors, Broncos or Sharks to lose all of their matches, and the Tigers to lose three. The Tigers will probably be that little bit more desperate to win than the Raiders - as they are still just four competition points away from the teams at the bottom of the eight.
The Raiders continue to be affected by injury and suspension, missing captain Jarrod Croker (knee), Michael Oldfield (knee), Ata Hingano (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and fullback Jack Wighton for the rest of the regular season. The back line stocks are particularly thin, with Blake Austin forced to play left centre - last week with mixed results.
It is surprising to me that the Raiders are favourites in this match - with the Tigers having the better recent form. The Raiders have an advantage in attack, and that's reflected in their recent record of handing out thrashings to the Tigers. However, the Tigers have the advantage in defence - and have toppled some big name teams. The other worrying thing is the inclusion of Benji Marshall in the Tigers' line up. He's won the 10 matches he's played at Canberra Stadium, with three different clubs. He's also won 17 of 18 matches he's played against the Raiders.
Both teams are very inconsistent, so this really will be a case of which Raiders and Tigers teams "turn up" on the day. Flip of a coin, this one.
What they're saying:
Shannon Boyd: "We can score the points... we're just leaking way too many points at critical times. Whether we're putting too much pressure on ourselves and then force errors or mistakes by trying to do too much."
Sam Williams on whether young players should be blooded in the final month of the competition: "Ricky will pick the team that he thinks can win the game on the weekend. For the players that are leaving they want to leave on the right note and the players that are going to be here we want to send them out on the right note - that's winning football games.
Canberra Raiders
1. Nick Cotric
2. Brad Abbey
3. Blake Austin
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Aidan Sezer
7. Sam Williams
8. Sia Soliola
9. Josh Hodgson (c)
10. Junior Paulo
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Josh Papalii
14. Dunamis Lui
15. Shannon Boyd
16. Siliva Havili
17. Luke Bateman
18. Liam Knight
19. Jack Murchie
Wests Tigers
1. Moses Mbye
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Esan Marsters
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Malakai Watene-Zelezniak
6. Benji Marshall
7. Luke Brooks
8. Russell Packer (c)
9. Robbie Farah
10. Ben Matulino
11. Michael Chee Kam
12. Luke Garner
13. Elijah Taylor
14. Alex Twal
15. Sauaso Sue
16. Robbie Rochow
17. Matt Eisenhuth
18. Jacob Liddle
21. Mahe Fonua
Officials:
Referees: Ben Cummins, Chris Butler
Sideline Officials: Nick Beashel, Dave Munro
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersTigers
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Sunday 12 August 2:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning frost. Partly cloudy Partly cloudy. Patches of morning frost. Light winds becoming northwest to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min -1 Max 12
Round 21 2018. Penrith Panthers 40 - Canberra Raiders 31. Yet more heartbreak. The Raiders led by 14 points at half time. At almost the mid point of the second half, the Raiders led 30-18. They still led, narrowly, with less than eight minutes remaining. But for the fourth time in a row, the Panthers ran over the top of the Raiders in the final stages.
2018 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
More on Round 21: As I saw it
In Round 22, the Raiders return home to Canberra Stadium to meet the Wests Tigers, the first of three straight games at home. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged line up from the team that lost to the Penrith Panthers last week. For the Wests Tigers, Malakai Watene-Zelezniak comes in for Corey Thompson (ankle) on the wing. Luke Garner has been named in the second row, with Elijah Taylor moving to lock and Matt Eisenhuth to the bench. Robbie Rochow has been included the bench, with Jacob Liddle dropping to the reserves list. It is possible Mahe Fonua could return from a broken arm, after being named as a reserve.
Late changes: For the Raiders, Makahesi Makatoa and Emre Guler were omitted from the Canberra Raiders' extended bench on Saturday afternoon, with no other changes to the team. The Wests Tigers omitted Chris McQueen and Tyson Gamble from their squad.
History: The Raiders have won 16 of 34 matches against the Wests Tigers, a 47 per cent win rate. Including games played against the Wests Magpies and Balmain Tigers prior to the joint venture, the Raiders have won 49 of 91 contests. But that 54 per cent win rate is significantly boosted by the 75 per cent win rate against the Magpies. The Tigers have always been a bit of a bogey team for the Raiders... excepting the 1989 Grand Final.
The Raiders have, however, won six of the past 10 matches between the clubs, and the last four straight. Canberra won 48-12 earlier this year against the Tigers at Campbelltown. They also won the only match played between the clubs in 2017, 46-6, at Canberra Stadium. Canberra topped 50 points in both wins over the Tigers in 2016. The Raiders have a relatively poor record at home against the Wests Tigers, winning just half of the 18 matches played at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders, however, won four of five matches played against Balmain at the venue, and all seven played against the Wests Magpies.
2018 Round 15 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
2017 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
This week’s "History Happens"? Let's go back to the final round of 2016, with the Wests Tigers finals hopes on the line... and the Raiders aiming for the top two. And what a magic afternoon it turned out to be... and most famous for Joey Leilua's magical flick pass to Jordan Rapana.
2016 Round 26 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Form: In the five matches since the two teams last met in Round 15, the Tigers have a LWWLW form line. They have beaten the Dragons and Rabbitohs in that time, and defeated the Newcastle Knights 25-16 in their last outing. The Raiders are on a WWLLL form line in their past five.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.56 favourites in the match, with the Tigers paying $2.45. The Tigers have 5.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between ninth (Tigers) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. Canberra has an eight and 12 record in 2018, while the Tigers are 10 and 10. Canberra has played nine matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. The Tigers have won five of 10 matches against top eight sides.
The Raiders are ranked first in the NRL for total points (489) scored in 2018. They are just one try behind the first ranked team for most tries this season (Rabbitohs 83, Raiders 82). The Tigers rank dead last in the league in attack (16 points and 2.5 tries scored per match, compared with 25 points and 4.1 tries per match for the Raiders). The Tigers, however, have a better defensive record, conceding 18 points (2.9 tries) per match, compared with 24 points (3.8 tries) for the Raiders. The Raiders rank fourth worst in defence, the Tigers fourth best.
The Raiders remain the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+15), and have a better points differential than three teams above them (Tigers -36, Warriors -14, Broncos -6).
The Tigers average slightly more running metres (Tigers 1482m, Raiders 1423m per match) and more kicking metres (Tigers 496m, Raiders 386m per match). The Tigers have a slightly better completion rate (Tigers 79 per cent, Raiders 77 per cent), with both teams averaging 10 errors per match. The Raiders are the least disciplined team in the competition, ranking first for penalties conceded. They concede 10 penalties per match, compared with eight for the Tigers. The Tigers receive the fewest penalties in the NRL, an average of seven per match, compared with 8.5 for the Raiders. The Tigers make more offloads (11-9 per match on average), while the Raiders make more line breaks (Raiders five, Tigers three per match).
The teams have a similar tackle efficiency rate (Tigers missing 38 of 391 tackles required on average per match, the Raiders missing 33 of 340).
Our tip: The Raiders now only have "mathematical" chance of making the finals. They must win every remaining match - and depend on the Warriors, Broncos or Sharks to lose all of their matches, and the Tigers to lose three. The Tigers will probably be that little bit more desperate to win than the Raiders - as they are still just four competition points away from the teams at the bottom of the eight.
The Raiders continue to be affected by injury and suspension, missing captain Jarrod Croker (knee), Michael Oldfield (knee), Ata Hingano (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and fullback Jack Wighton for the rest of the regular season. The back line stocks are particularly thin, with Blake Austin forced to play left centre - last week with mixed results.
It is surprising to me that the Raiders are favourites in this match - with the Tigers having the better recent form. The Raiders have an advantage in attack, and that's reflected in their recent record of handing out thrashings to the Tigers. However, the Tigers have the advantage in defence - and have toppled some big name teams. The other worrying thing is the inclusion of Benji Marshall in the Tigers' line up. He's won the 10 matches he's played at Canberra Stadium, with three different clubs. He's also won 17 of 18 matches he's played against the Raiders.
Both teams are very inconsistent, so this really will be a case of which Raiders and Tigers teams "turn up" on the day. Flip of a coin, this one.
What they're saying:
Shannon Boyd: "We can score the points... we're just leaking way too many points at critical times. Whether we're putting too much pressure on ourselves and then force errors or mistakes by trying to do too much."
Sam Williams on whether young players should be blooded in the final month of the competition: "Ricky will pick the team that he thinks can win the game on the weekend. For the players that are leaving they want to leave on the right note and the players that are going to be here we want to send them out on the right note - that's winning football games.
Canberra Raiders
1. Nick Cotric
2. Brad Abbey
3. Blake Austin
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Aidan Sezer
7. Sam Williams
8. Sia Soliola
9. Josh Hodgson (c)
10. Junior Paulo
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Josh Papalii
14. Dunamis Lui
15. Shannon Boyd
16. Siliva Havili
17. Luke Bateman
18. Liam Knight
19. Jack Murchie
Wests Tigers
1. Moses Mbye
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Esan Marsters
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Malakai Watene-Zelezniak
6. Benji Marshall
7. Luke Brooks
8. Russell Packer (c)
9. Robbie Farah
10. Ben Matulino
11. Michael Chee Kam
12. Luke Garner
13. Elijah Taylor
14. Alex Twal
15. Sauaso Sue
16. Robbie Rochow
17. Matt Eisenhuth
18. Jacob Liddle
21. Mahe Fonua
Officials:
Referees: Ben Cummins, Chris Butler
Sideline Officials: Nick Beashel, Dave Munro
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersTigers
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders