2018 Rd 20 V Storm: Game Day
Posted: July 24, 2018, 4:52 pm
2018 Rd 20 V Storm: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday 28 July 7:35pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Dry day. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 50 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Min 9 Max 19
Round 19 2018. Cronulla Sharks 28 - Canberra Raiders 24. A match lost by the Raiders in the first half. Canberra's errors and ill discipline gifted the Cronulla Sharks a massive share of possession and a huge territorial advantage. Canberra made a big comeback in the second half, with some barn storming performances from the likes of Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana. It was great to see the courage, the determination, the enthusiasm. It was a hugely controversial match, with two blatant refereeing errors which cost the Raiders dearly. But in the end, the Raiders' effort to come back were not enough.
2018 Round 19 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
More on Round 19: As I saw it
In Round 20, the Raiders head south to Bleak City for a meeting with the top of the table Melbourne Storm. Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has shifted Nick Cotric to centre, with Michael Oldfield moving to wing. Joseph Tapine (suspension) returns for the Green Machine in the second row, with Sia Soliola dropping to the bench and Jack Murchie to 18th man. For the Storm, Dale Finucane starts at lock with Kenny Bromwich dropping to the bench.
Late changes: Makahesi Makatoa and Royce Hunt dropped off from the Raiders extended bench on Friday night, with Jack Murchie and Emre Guler remaining. For the Storm, Ryan Hoffman has been replaced by Kenny Bromwich in the starting second row. Albert Vete has been included on the bench. Cheyse Blair and Brodie Croft remain on the reserves list, with Tui Kamikamica the other player to drop out of the squad of 21.
History: The Raiders have won only 11 of 40 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a 28 per cent win rate. Canberra has won four of the past 10 clashes between the clubs, but have lost the past three matches straight. They narrowly lost the Preliminary Final in 2016, 14-12, in Melbourne - and lost both contests in 2017. It was just a six point margin at Canberra Stadium in the first of those matches, but a 32-6 blow out in Melbourne, in the final round of 2017. Canberra has won three of seven matches the clubs have played at the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, but they have not won at the venue since 2013. The Raiders have won just four of 20 matches played in Melbourne.
2018 Round 26 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2017 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2016 Preliminary Final Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
In this week’s "History Happens", we go back to just Round 23 of 2016, when the Raiders produced their best ever performance against the Melbourne Storm... and one of their best regular season matches in recent memory. Outstanding stuff... if only it had been the Preliminary Final, played only weeks later!
2016 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Form: The Storm is on a seven game winning streak, surviving the Origin period unscathed. That run remarkably includes three one point victories over the Cowboys, Roosters and Sea Eagles. In their last outing, the Storm won 12-6 against the Warriors in Auckland, in a real struggle. The Raiders are on a WLWWL form line.
Betting: The Storm are hot $1.30 favourites in the match, with the Raiders paying $3.57. The Raiders have 9.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between first (Storm) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. Canberra has an eight and 10 record in 2018, while Melbourne is 13 and five. Canberra has played seven matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. Melbourne has won six of eight matches against top eight sides.
No team has scored more points or tries than the Raiders (448 points, 75 tries), which is extraordinary, considering their place on the ladder. The Storm rank fourth in the league in attack (23 points and 3.6 tries scored per match, compared with 25 points and 4.2 tries per match for the Raiders). The Storm, however, has a much better defensive record, conceding just 15 points (2.4 tries) per match, compared with 22 points (3.4 tries) for the Raiders. Only the Roosters have a better defensive record than the Storm, while the Raiders rank 12th in defence.
The Raiders are the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+58), and have a better points differential than four teams above them (Tigers -33, Warriors +4, Broncos +6, Sharks +46).
The Storm average slightly more running metres (Storm 1454m, Raiders 1452m per match) and kicking metres (Storm 419m, Raiders 395m per match). The Raiders have a better completion rate (Raiders 78 per cent, Storm 74 per cent), with the Storm averaging more errors (12-10 per match). Both teams concede nine penalties per game. The Storm make slightly more offloads (10-9 per match on average), while the Raiders shade the Storm in line breaks (Raiders five, Storm four per match).
The Storm has a better tackle efficiency rate (Storm missing 26 of 346 tackles required on average per match, the Raiders missing 32 of 343).
Our tip: The Raiders' finals hopes hang by a thread and they must win every remaining match to have a chance of playing finals football. The Raiders are significantly impacted by injury and suspension, missing captain Jarrod Croker (knee) and Ata Hingano (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and fullback Jack Wighton for the rest of the regular season. Halfback Aidan Sezer (hamstring) and Shannon Boyd (calf) are also in the casualty ward. The return of Joe Tapine from suspension, however, is a plus.
While the Raiders have an advantage in attack, the Storm has a much bigger advantage in defence. The Storm also loves getting into the grind and winning in close contests. They have won four of the five games they've played this season that have been decided by two points or less. The Raiders have lost all five of their games in 2018 decided by two points or less. The Raiders have also lost seven of the eight matches they've played that have been decided by four points or less.
Melbourne is not really playing that well, and have struggled to find a combination in their spine, following the departure of Cooper Cronk. But they're still top of the ladder, and they still have key playmakers who know what to do in the clutch.
If this match gets into the "grind", it is hard to see anything other than a Melbourne Storm win. If the Raiders are to win, they will need a fast start, build a lead, and keep the Storm under pressure the entire 80 minutes. The heart is hoping they can, the head is saying this will be a Storm win. Storm by 12.
What they’re saying
Sam Williams on the aftermath of the loss to the Sharks: "We’re a professional outfit and we’ve got to be mentally strong enough to bounce back. We came back in here [on Monday] morning with smiles on our faces and try to make sure we’re as professional as we can be throughout the week to get ready for the [Melbourne] game."
Elliott Whitehead: "We’re going to have to go down to Melbourne and get the win. We’ve got six games left now and we need to win all of them and hopefully some results go our way. We’ll be concentrating on what Melbourne do and hopefully we can go down there and get the two points we desperately need. We know what we have to do and we’ll just be concentrating on doing that."
Canberra Raiders
1 Brad Abbey, 2 Michael Oldfield, 3 Nick Cotric, 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Jordan Rapana, 6 Blake Austin, 7 Sam Williams, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Josh Hodgson (c), 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Joseph Tapine, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Josh Papalii
Interchange: 14 Liam Knight, 15 Luke Bateman, 16 Siliva Havili, 17 Iosia Soliola
Reserves: 18 Jack Murchie, 21 Emre Guler
Melbourne Storm
1 Billy Slater, 2 Suliasi Vunivalu, 3 Will Chambers, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Jahrome Hughes, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Cameron Smith (c), 10 Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 14 Kenny Bromwich, 13 Dale Finucane
Interchange: 15 Tim Glasby, 16 Christian Welch, 17 Joe Stimson, 21 Albert Vete
Reserves: 19 Brodie Croft, 20 Cheyse Blair,
Officials:
Referees: Adam Gee, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Sideline Officials: Kasey Badger, Rohan Best
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLStormRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday 28 July 7:35pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Dry day. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 50 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Min 9 Max 19
Round 19 2018. Cronulla Sharks 28 - Canberra Raiders 24. A match lost by the Raiders in the first half. Canberra's errors and ill discipline gifted the Cronulla Sharks a massive share of possession and a huge territorial advantage. Canberra made a big comeback in the second half, with some barn storming performances from the likes of Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana. It was great to see the courage, the determination, the enthusiasm. It was a hugely controversial match, with two blatant refereeing errors which cost the Raiders dearly. But in the end, the Raiders' effort to come back were not enough.
2018 Round 19 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks
More on Round 19: As I saw it
In Round 20, the Raiders head south to Bleak City for a meeting with the top of the table Melbourne Storm. Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has shifted Nick Cotric to centre, with Michael Oldfield moving to wing. Joseph Tapine (suspension) returns for the Green Machine in the second row, with Sia Soliola dropping to the bench and Jack Murchie to 18th man. For the Storm, Dale Finucane starts at lock with Kenny Bromwich dropping to the bench.
Late changes: Makahesi Makatoa and Royce Hunt dropped off from the Raiders extended bench on Friday night, with Jack Murchie and Emre Guler remaining. For the Storm, Ryan Hoffman has been replaced by Kenny Bromwich in the starting second row. Albert Vete has been included on the bench. Cheyse Blair and Brodie Croft remain on the reserves list, with Tui Kamikamica the other player to drop out of the squad of 21.
History: The Raiders have won only 11 of 40 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a 28 per cent win rate. Canberra has won four of the past 10 clashes between the clubs, but have lost the past three matches straight. They narrowly lost the Preliminary Final in 2016, 14-12, in Melbourne - and lost both contests in 2017. It was just a six point margin at Canberra Stadium in the first of those matches, but a 32-6 blow out in Melbourne, in the final round of 2017. Canberra has won three of seven matches the clubs have played at the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, but they have not won at the venue since 2013. The Raiders have won just four of 20 matches played in Melbourne.
2018 Round 26 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2017 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2016 Preliminary Final Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
In this week’s "History Happens", we go back to just Round 23 of 2016, when the Raiders produced their best ever performance against the Melbourne Storm... and one of their best regular season matches in recent memory. Outstanding stuff... if only it had been the Preliminary Final, played only weeks later!
2016 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Form: The Storm is on a seven game winning streak, surviving the Origin period unscathed. That run remarkably includes three one point victories over the Cowboys, Roosters and Sea Eagles. In their last outing, the Storm won 12-6 against the Warriors in Auckland, in a real struggle. The Raiders are on a WLWWL form line.
Betting: The Storm are hot $1.30 favourites in the match, with the Raiders paying $3.57. The Raiders have 9.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between first (Storm) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. Canberra has an eight and 10 record in 2018, while Melbourne is 13 and five. Canberra has played seven matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. Melbourne has won six of eight matches against top eight sides.
No team has scored more points or tries than the Raiders (448 points, 75 tries), which is extraordinary, considering their place on the ladder. The Storm rank fourth in the league in attack (23 points and 3.6 tries scored per match, compared with 25 points and 4.2 tries per match for the Raiders). The Storm, however, has a much better defensive record, conceding just 15 points (2.4 tries) per match, compared with 22 points (3.4 tries) for the Raiders. Only the Roosters have a better defensive record than the Storm, while the Raiders rank 12th in defence.
The Raiders are the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+58), and have a better points differential than four teams above them (Tigers -33, Warriors +4, Broncos +6, Sharks +46).
The Storm average slightly more running metres (Storm 1454m, Raiders 1452m per match) and kicking metres (Storm 419m, Raiders 395m per match). The Raiders have a better completion rate (Raiders 78 per cent, Storm 74 per cent), with the Storm averaging more errors (12-10 per match). Both teams concede nine penalties per game. The Storm make slightly more offloads (10-9 per match on average), while the Raiders shade the Storm in line breaks (Raiders five, Storm four per match).
The Storm has a better tackle efficiency rate (Storm missing 26 of 346 tackles required on average per match, the Raiders missing 32 of 343).
Our tip: The Raiders' finals hopes hang by a thread and they must win every remaining match to have a chance of playing finals football. The Raiders are significantly impacted by injury and suspension, missing captain Jarrod Croker (knee) and Ata Hingano (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and fullback Jack Wighton for the rest of the regular season. Halfback Aidan Sezer (hamstring) and Shannon Boyd (calf) are also in the casualty ward. The return of Joe Tapine from suspension, however, is a plus.
While the Raiders have an advantage in attack, the Storm has a much bigger advantage in defence. The Storm also loves getting into the grind and winning in close contests. They have won four of the five games they've played this season that have been decided by two points or less. The Raiders have lost all five of their games in 2018 decided by two points or less. The Raiders have also lost seven of the eight matches they've played that have been decided by four points or less.
Melbourne is not really playing that well, and have struggled to find a combination in their spine, following the departure of Cooper Cronk. But they're still top of the ladder, and they still have key playmakers who know what to do in the clutch.
If this match gets into the "grind", it is hard to see anything other than a Melbourne Storm win. If the Raiders are to win, they will need a fast start, build a lead, and keep the Storm under pressure the entire 80 minutes. The heart is hoping they can, the head is saying this will be a Storm win. Storm by 12.
What they’re saying
Sam Williams on the aftermath of the loss to the Sharks: "We’re a professional outfit and we’ve got to be mentally strong enough to bounce back. We came back in here [on Monday] morning with smiles on our faces and try to make sure we’re as professional as we can be throughout the week to get ready for the [Melbourne] game."
Elliott Whitehead: "We’re going to have to go down to Melbourne and get the win. We’ve got six games left now and we need to win all of them and hopefully some results go our way. We’ll be concentrating on what Melbourne do and hopefully we can go down there and get the two points we desperately need. We know what we have to do and we’ll just be concentrating on doing that."
Canberra Raiders
1 Brad Abbey, 2 Michael Oldfield, 3 Nick Cotric, 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Jordan Rapana, 6 Blake Austin, 7 Sam Williams, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Josh Hodgson (c), 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Joseph Tapine, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Josh Papalii
Interchange: 14 Liam Knight, 15 Luke Bateman, 16 Siliva Havili, 17 Iosia Soliola
Reserves: 18 Jack Murchie, 21 Emre Guler
Melbourne Storm
1 Billy Slater, 2 Suliasi Vunivalu, 3 Will Chambers, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Jahrome Hughes, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Cameron Smith (c), 10 Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 14 Kenny Bromwich, 13 Dale Finucane
Interchange: 15 Tim Glasby, 16 Christian Welch, 17 Joe Stimson, 21 Albert Vete
Reserves: 19 Brodie Croft, 20 Cheyse Blair,
Officials:
Referees: Adam Gee, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Sideline Officials: Kasey Badger, Rohan Best
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLStormRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
