2018 Rd 17 V Bulldogs: Game Day
Posted: July 3, 2018, 5:11 pm
2018 Rd 17 V Bulldogs: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday 7 July 7:35pm
Belmore Sports Ground
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the middle of the day. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 8 Max 18
Round 16 2018. Brisbane Broncos 26 - Canberra Raiders 22. Yet again the Raiders lost in the final 10 minutes. It was the seventh match this season lost by eight points or less. Four have been lost by two points or less. It was the seventh match this season where the Raiders were in a position to win, only to be run down in the final stages. Five of those matches have now been lost in the final 10 minutes. In this match, Canberra led 16-0 at half time after a dominant 40 minutes. They led the match for the first 70 minutes. But it was an extremely poor second half from the “Green Machine”, conceding 26 points while adding just six.
2018 Round 16 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
More on Round 16: As I saw it
In Round 17, the Raiders head to Belmore Sports Ground to meet the Canterbury Bulldogs. Coach Ricky Stuart has dropped Blake Austin to the bench, with Sam Williams to start at five-eighth. Siliva Havili comes in for Josh Papalii at lock, while Papalii is on Origin duty with the Queensland Maroons. Former Bulldogs player, Brad Abbey, retains his place at fullback after making his debut in green.
For the Bulldogs, Danny Fualalo will start at prop, in place of Blues Origin representative David Klemmer. Former Canberra Raiders forward Clay Priest moves onto the bench. Another former Raider, Matt Frawley has been named on the Bulldogs reserves list.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Charlie Gubb and Royce Hunt from the squad on Friday night, while the Bulldogs omitted Asipeli Fine and Matt Frawley.
History: The Raiders have won 29 and lost 39 matches against the Canterbury Bulldogs. That’s just a 43 per cent win rate. However, the record has been more even recently, with Canberra winning five of the past 10 clashes. At Belmore Sports Ground, the Raiders have won only twice in the 13 contests between the clubs. Canberra won the most recent match at Belmore, 22-8, in 2016 - 18 years after the clubs last met at the ground - with the Raiders producing a rousing defensive display. The clubs have played 32 matches in Sydney, with the Raiders winning just over a third of the games (11). The Raiders won the earlier match against the Bulldogs this year in Round 5, 26-10.
2018 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
2017 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
2016 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
In this week’s "History Happens", let’s do the obvious! Who wouldn’t want to see Martin Bella knock on to start the 1994 Grand Final... and Mal Meninga score a try in his final match in green?
1994 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Form: The Raiders have a LWLWL form line in their past five matches, while the Bulldogs have a LLLLW record. The Bulldogs broke their four game losing streak last weekend, with a 36-16 win over the Newcastle Knights at Hunter Stadium. They have had recent losses to the Titans, Dragons, Tigers and Sharks.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.43 favourites in the match, with the Bulldogs paying $2.85. The Bulldogs have 6.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between ninth (Raiders) and 14th (Bulldogs) on the competition ladder. The Raiders have a 6 and 9 record in 2018, while the Bulldogs are 4 and 11. Canberra has played six matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. The Bulldigs have won one of nine matches against top eight sides.
The Raiders are in the top three teams in the NRL in attack (24 points and four tries scored per match), while the Bulldogs rank 14th (16 points and 2.5 tries per match). In fact, only the Rabbitohs have scored more tries in 2018 than the Raiders (58). The two teams have a similar defensive record, with the Raiders conceding an average of 22 points (3.3 tries) per game, the Bulldogs 20 (3.5 tries). The Raiders are the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+32), while the Bulldogs have recorded a points differential of -59.
The Bulldogs produce more average running metres (Bulldogs 1526m, Raiders 1434m per match) and more kicking metres (Bulldogs 453m, Raiders 389m per match). The Raiders, however, produce slightly more metres per run (9.2-8.8 metres). The Bulldogs have a better completion rate (Bulldogs 79 per cent, Raiders 75 per cent), though both average 10 errors per game. Canberra averages more penalties conceded (Raiders 10, Bulldogs 8). The Bulldogs make slightly more offloads (Bulldogs 10, Raiders nine, per match on average), but the Raiders make more line breaks (Raiders 5, Bulldogs 3 per match).
The Bulldogs have a slightly better tackle efficiency rate (Raiders missing 31 of 341 tackles required on average per match, the Bulldogs missing 27 of 340).
Our tip: It’s just about the last chance saloon this week, with Canberra able to drop just one or two of their remaining nine matches if they’re to make the top eight. Sadly, we must already start using the “m” word to describe Canberra’s finals chances... mathematical. They will face a top eight team in six of their remaining games... and, as mentioned, they have yet to win a game against a top eight team. So they simply cannot afford to drop this game, against a team below them on the ladder.
It is the second time that former Raiders assistant coach Dean Pay, now Bulldogs head coach, will come up against Ricky Stuart. He will be very keen to get the win against his former “boss”, particularly after Stuart took the competition points in their earlier match up this year. It’ll also be interesting to see how former Raiders junior, Lachlan Lewis goes in this match, after making a strong NRL debut last week. He’ll no doubt be wanting to make a statement in this match as well.
However this is a match that the Raiders should win, with most of the statistics pointing to a Green Machine victory. I think they can do it... but if they can’t, it’ll be just about time to write off 2018. Raiders by six.
What they’re saying
Former Bulldog Brad Abbey, after making his debut for the Raiders last weekend: “The circumstances were not the best but I definitely just wanted to take it with both hands and hopefully stay there. It’s good I get a full week this week and I can't wait to go back to Belmore. I've got a lot of mates back there and it will be good to have some banter on the field.”
Canberra Raiders
1 Brad Abbey, 2 Nick Cotric, 3 Jarrod Croker (c), 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Michael Oldfield, 6 Sam Williams, 7 Aidan Sezer, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Josh Hodgson, 10 Shannon Boyd, 11 Joseph Tapine, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Siliva Havili
Interchange: 14 Blake Austin, 15 Junior Paulo, 16 Liam Knight, 17 Iosia Soliola
Reserves: 18 Jack Murchie, 21 Craig Garvey
Canterbury Bulldogs
1 Will Hopoate, 2 Brett Morris, 3 Kerrod Holland, 4 Marcelo Montoya, 5 Reimis Smith, 6 Lachlan Lewis, 7 Jeremy Marshall-King, 8 Aiden Tolman, 9 Michael Lichaa, 10 Danny Fualalo, 11 Josh Jackson (c), 12 Rhyse Martin, 13 Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14 Fa'amanu Brown, 15 Clay Priest, 16 Ofahiki Ogden, 17 Greg Eastwood
Reserves: 21 Francis Tualau, 23 Josh Morris
Officials:
Referees: Grant Atkins, Gavin Badger
Sideline Officials: Jeff Younis, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLBulldogsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday 7 July 7:35pm
Belmore Sports Ground
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the middle of the day. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 8 Max 18
Round 16 2018. Brisbane Broncos 26 - Canberra Raiders 22. Yet again the Raiders lost in the final 10 minutes. It was the seventh match this season lost by eight points or less. Four have been lost by two points or less. It was the seventh match this season where the Raiders were in a position to win, only to be run down in the final stages. Five of those matches have now been lost in the final 10 minutes. In this match, Canberra led 16-0 at half time after a dominant 40 minutes. They led the match for the first 70 minutes. But it was an extremely poor second half from the “Green Machine”, conceding 26 points while adding just six.
2018 Round 16 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
More on Round 16: As I saw it
In Round 17, the Raiders head to Belmore Sports Ground to meet the Canterbury Bulldogs. Coach Ricky Stuart has dropped Blake Austin to the bench, with Sam Williams to start at five-eighth. Siliva Havili comes in for Josh Papalii at lock, while Papalii is on Origin duty with the Queensland Maroons. Former Bulldogs player, Brad Abbey, retains his place at fullback after making his debut in green.
For the Bulldogs, Danny Fualalo will start at prop, in place of Blues Origin representative David Klemmer. Former Canberra Raiders forward Clay Priest moves onto the bench. Another former Raider, Matt Frawley has been named on the Bulldogs reserves list.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Charlie Gubb and Royce Hunt from the squad on Friday night, while the Bulldogs omitted Asipeli Fine and Matt Frawley.
History: The Raiders have won 29 and lost 39 matches against the Canterbury Bulldogs. That’s just a 43 per cent win rate. However, the record has been more even recently, with Canberra winning five of the past 10 clashes. At Belmore Sports Ground, the Raiders have won only twice in the 13 contests between the clubs. Canberra won the most recent match at Belmore, 22-8, in 2016 - 18 years after the clubs last met at the ground - with the Raiders producing a rousing defensive display. The clubs have played 32 matches in Sydney, with the Raiders winning just over a third of the games (11). The Raiders won the earlier match against the Bulldogs this year in Round 5, 26-10.
2018 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
2017 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
2016 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
In this week’s "History Happens", let’s do the obvious! Who wouldn’t want to see Martin Bella knock on to start the 1994 Grand Final... and Mal Meninga score a try in his final match in green?
1994 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Form: The Raiders have a LWLWL form line in their past five matches, while the Bulldogs have a LLLLW record. The Bulldogs broke their four game losing streak last weekend, with a 36-16 win over the Newcastle Knights at Hunter Stadium. They have had recent losses to the Titans, Dragons, Tigers and Sharks.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.43 favourites in the match, with the Bulldogs paying $2.85. The Bulldogs have 6.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: It is a clash between ninth (Raiders) and 14th (Bulldogs) on the competition ladder. The Raiders have a 6 and 9 record in 2018, while the Bulldogs are 4 and 11. Canberra has played six matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. The Bulldigs have won one of nine matches against top eight sides.
The Raiders are in the top three teams in the NRL in attack (24 points and four tries scored per match), while the Bulldogs rank 14th (16 points and 2.5 tries per match). In fact, only the Rabbitohs have scored more tries in 2018 than the Raiders (58). The two teams have a similar defensive record, with the Raiders conceding an average of 22 points (3.3 tries) per game, the Bulldogs 20 (3.5 tries). The Raiders are the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+32), while the Bulldogs have recorded a points differential of -59.
The Bulldogs produce more average running metres (Bulldogs 1526m, Raiders 1434m per match) and more kicking metres (Bulldogs 453m, Raiders 389m per match). The Raiders, however, produce slightly more metres per run (9.2-8.8 metres). The Bulldogs have a better completion rate (Bulldogs 79 per cent, Raiders 75 per cent), though both average 10 errors per game. Canberra averages more penalties conceded (Raiders 10, Bulldogs 8). The Bulldogs make slightly more offloads (Bulldogs 10, Raiders nine, per match on average), but the Raiders make more line breaks (Raiders 5, Bulldogs 3 per match).
The Bulldogs have a slightly better tackle efficiency rate (Raiders missing 31 of 341 tackles required on average per match, the Bulldogs missing 27 of 340).
Our tip: It’s just about the last chance saloon this week, with Canberra able to drop just one or two of their remaining nine matches if they’re to make the top eight. Sadly, we must already start using the “m” word to describe Canberra’s finals chances... mathematical. They will face a top eight team in six of their remaining games... and, as mentioned, they have yet to win a game against a top eight team. So they simply cannot afford to drop this game, against a team below them on the ladder.
It is the second time that former Raiders assistant coach Dean Pay, now Bulldogs head coach, will come up against Ricky Stuart. He will be very keen to get the win against his former “boss”, particularly after Stuart took the competition points in their earlier match up this year. It’ll also be interesting to see how former Raiders junior, Lachlan Lewis goes in this match, after making a strong NRL debut last week. He’ll no doubt be wanting to make a statement in this match as well.
However this is a match that the Raiders should win, with most of the statistics pointing to a Green Machine victory. I think they can do it... but if they can’t, it’ll be just about time to write off 2018. Raiders by six.
What they’re saying
Former Bulldog Brad Abbey, after making his debut for the Raiders last weekend: “The circumstances were not the best but I definitely just wanted to take it with both hands and hopefully stay there. It’s good I get a full week this week and I can't wait to go back to Belmore. I've got a lot of mates back there and it will be good to have some banter on the field.”
Canberra Raiders
1 Brad Abbey, 2 Nick Cotric, 3 Jarrod Croker (c), 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Michael Oldfield, 6 Sam Williams, 7 Aidan Sezer, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Josh Hodgson, 10 Shannon Boyd, 11 Joseph Tapine, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Siliva Havili
Interchange: 14 Blake Austin, 15 Junior Paulo, 16 Liam Knight, 17 Iosia Soliola
Reserves: 18 Jack Murchie, 21 Craig Garvey
Canterbury Bulldogs
1 Will Hopoate, 2 Brett Morris, 3 Kerrod Holland, 4 Marcelo Montoya, 5 Reimis Smith, 6 Lachlan Lewis, 7 Jeremy Marshall-King, 8 Aiden Tolman, 9 Michael Lichaa, 10 Danny Fualalo, 11 Josh Jackson (c), 12 Rhyse Martin, 13 Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14 Fa'amanu Brown, 15 Clay Priest, 16 Ofahiki Ogden, 17 Greg Eastwood
Reserves: 21 Francis Tualau, 23 Josh Morris
Officials:
Referees: Grant Atkins, Gavin Badger
Sideline Officials: Jeff Younis, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLBulldogsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles
Mounties teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders