Raiders Scouting Thread

[Matt]

Raiders Scouting Thread

If you are an NRL fan then you will probably have some understanding regarding the salary cap and the number of players that must accommodate. Each team has a squad of players that they must fit under the proposed cap figure. As of 2018, the salary cap increased to $9.4million, and the squad size also increased from a top 25 players to a top 30 players; this coincides with the conclusion of the NRL under 20s competition.

For those who want a better breakdown of the cap, here it is:
- $9.1 million base cap, increasing to $9.7 million in 2022.
- plus $0.2 million per annum veteran and developed player allowance.
- plus $0.1 million per annum car allowance (Max. 5 per club club).
- Players 1-26 Min. wage $100,000, increasing by $5,000 per annum til 2022.
- Players 27-30 Min. wage $70,000, increasing by $2,500 per annum til 2022.
- Second tier replaced by Development list, players entitled to $60,000 per annum. These players would require special dispensation to play in the NRL in any given year.
There is a whole extra bit about Third Party Agreements (TPA), however, they murky the waters, over complicate everything, and are now the biggest gap in the supposed level playing field created by a salary cap system. So, I am going to ignore it, much like the NRL does.

The 2019 cap figure has not been set yet, but the base cap will increase $600,000 in the next four year, so it’s basically increasing by 150,000 a year, which is good, because the minimum wages increase by $140,000 a year, meaning costs are covered. So, next year, the Raiders will have $9.55 million dollars to play their Top 30.

How do you how to breakdown that Top 30 into positions? Generally, teams have at least one backup for every position, and then due to versatility, coach preferences, cap restrictions, and current contracted squad members, the remainder of the squad is filled. The simplest way to look at it is to have a replacement for every starting spot, plus four bench players to complete the Top 30. The maths being 13 starters x2 = 26, plus the 4 bench players is 30. This would make the breakdown:
Fullback – 2 players
Wing – 4 players
Centre – 4 players
Five-eighth – 2 players
Halfback – 2 players
Prop – 4 players
Hooker – 2 players
Edge Backrow – 4 players
Lock – 2 players
Bench – 4 players

Now, before you ask, no the bench players are the bench players aren’t necessarily a utility and three forwards? They are the flexibility in a squad. Running with this system you should have ample cover for most positions; however, this gives you the chance to boost any point of weakness.

So, we have the basic information to start looking into what to do with the Raiders squad. For full information please check out the Raiders Contracted Players list.

So, in 2019 the Raiders squad looks like:

Fullback: Jack Wighton
Backup: Brad Abbey
Off Contract: None

Wingers: Jordan Rapana and Nick Cotric
Backups: None
Off Contract: Michael Oldfield, Mikaele Ravalawa

Centres: Jarrod Croker © and Joseph Leilua
Backup: None
Off Contract: Sebastian Kris

Five-Eighth: Ata Hingano
Backup: None
Off Contract: Blake Austin, Paul Roache

Halfback: Sam Williams
Backup: None
Off Contract: Aidan Sezer, Cooper Bambling

Prop: Liam Knight, Stefano Hala
Backup: None
Off Contract: Junior Paulo#, Shannon Boyd, Dunimus Lui, Makahesi Makatoa

Hooker: Josh Hodgson
Backup: None
Off Contract: Siliva Havili, Craig Garvey

Backrow: Elliott Whitehead and Joseph Tapine
Backup: Jack Murchie
Off Contract: Josh Papalii

Lock: Charlie Gubb*
Backup: Corey Horsburgh
Off Contract: Iosia Soliola, Luke Bateman, Emre Guler

* Contract with option in clubs favour.
# May have signed elsewhere.

So, according to the simplistic depth formula, we need the following to fill in the blanks:
Fullback: None
Wing: Two
Centre: Two
Five-eighth: One
Halfback: One
Prop: Two
Hooker: One
Backrow: One
Lock: None
Bench: Four

I’ll look to do a write up for each position as I get time. I’ll be looking at those players off contract in the NRL in both 2018 and 2019 for options. However, I might add the odd ‘surplus’ or ‘disgruntled’ player I think might be worth a shot. I am not across the ESL, so I won’t be looking there.

[Matt]

This instalment of the Raiders scouting thread will look at Halves. I’ll look to do a write up for each position as I get time. I’ll be looking at those players off contract in the NRL in both 2018 and 2019 for options. However, I might add the odd ‘surplus’ or ‘disgruntled’ player I think might be worth a shot. I am not across the ESL, so I won’t be looking there.

Halves

Due to the modern consensus of five-eighths and halfbacks being are grouped together, this will be the only time I also group a positions. Let’s have a look at what the Raiders are currently working with:

Five-Eighth: Ata Hingano
Backup: None
Off Contract: Blake Austin, Paul Roache

Halfback: Sam Williams
Backup: None
Off Contract: Aidan Sezer, Cooper Bambling

So, according to the simplistic depth formula, we need:
Five-eighth: One
Halfback: One

Due to the nature of contracts, and the apparent worthlessness of the paper they are written on, we will look at the next two seasons of options. The reason for this is, the term ‘early release’ is becoming more and more of a common occurrence.

Halfback and Five-Eighth players off contract in 2018:
Troy Dargan, Jarome Luai, Chad O'Donnell, Mitch Cornish, Jackson Hastings, Christian Hazard, Trent Hodkinson, Ryley Jacks, Cooper Johns, Kyle Laybutt, Lachlan Lewis, Soni Luke, Aidan Sezer, Johnathan Thurston, Connor Tracey, Billy Walters, Alexander Brimson, Blake Austin, Josh Cleeland, Lachlan Croker, Adam Doueihi, Kane Elgey, Matt Frawley, Jack Johns, Adam Keighran, Lachlan Lam, Brock Lamb, Benji Marshall, Jeremy Marshall-King, Dean Matterson, Shaun Nona,

Halfback and Five-Eighth players off contract in 2019:
Cameron Munster, Jake Clifford, Tuimoala Lolohea, Te Maire Martin, Corey Norman, Tom Wright, Luke Brooks, Fa'amanu Brown, Nathan Cleary, Cooper Cronk, Manase Fainu, Tyson Gamble, Dean Hawkins, Ata Hingano, Shaun Johnson, Mason Lino, Mitchell Moses, Darren Nicholls, Sam Williams, Joe Lovodua,

I’m not going to have a list of players ‘we could never get’ as this is a terrible mentality to recruitment to start with. However, I think we have to be realistic about our options, and I also think we need to be serious about our needs. Therefore, here is my ‘no fly zone’ and a brief reason why.

No Fly Zone 2018
Trent Hodkinson – Aging, and knee issues.
Kyle Laybutt – Been in the Cowboys system a little while, and hasn’t progressed.
Johnathan Thurston – He will retire.
Benji Marshall – Another close to retirement.
Shaun Nona – He was a part of the NSW Cup winning Dragons side of 2016. Will never be better than a backup, and we need a first grader.

Young players with good reputations, but we need to win now: Alexander Brimson, Josh Cleeland, Troy Dargan, Cooper Johns and Jack Johns, Jarome Luai

Players I have no information on: Chad O'Donnell, Christian Hazard, Soni Luke, Connor Tracey, Billy Walters, Adam Keighran, Lachlan Lam, Dean Matterson.

Ex-Raiders:
Mitch Cornish – Ricky has already seen him, and traded away.
Lachlan Croker – Ricky has already seen him, and traded away.
Matt Frawley – Was in our Under 20s system and we let him go to the Dogs.
Lachlan Lewis – Wally Lewis’s nephew. Was in our Under 20s system and we let him go to the Dogs.

Options 2018:
Adam Doueihi – Interestingly there have already been rumours as to our interest in Doueihi. He was one of the better young players at the recent World Cup playing in the centres for Lebanon. He has now played five NRL games for the Rabbitohs, filling in for the injured Adam Reynolds. Doueihi looks like he could play either halves role, and paired with the correct halves partner he could be exciting.

Kane Elgey – He is into his third season at the Titans, and he has definitely looked his best this year. He has looks a skilful player, but a defensive liability. He would have to play five-eighth, and like at the Titans, he would need a dominant halfback as a partner.

Jackson Hastings – He was very good in his rookie full season at the Roosters filling in for the suspended Mitchell Pearce. He has all the skills you require as a halfback, he can organise, pass both ways and has a strong kicking game. He is also a handy goal kicker if required. However, by all accounts personality cost him a contract in Bondi, and apparently the five eighth jersey at Manly. The fact that former Raider Lachlan Croker has kept him as the utility would suggest he has fallen from grace. The question is; do you take a punt on him ruining your culture?

Ryley Jacks – This is his second season in the Storm first grade side. In fact, he just got young talent Brodie Croft’s spot at halfback. My understanding of Jacks is that he is actually a five-eighth come lock, so he is another player that probably needs a dominant halfback to play alongside of him. He looked ok feeding off Cam Smith the other night, so potentially he could do the same thing with Josh Hodgson. If I were to be pinching a Storm half, I would be more interested Croft than Jacks.

Brock Lamb – Nathan Brown gave him the reigns of the Knights side last year, and in a team with only a pair of wins in two seasons, I thought Lamb did a better job than the results suggested. Like Hastings, Lamb is also a more than handy goal kicking option. He came into 2018 as the backup option to new marquee signing Mitchell Pearce and Pearce’f former Roosters teammate Connor Watson. With Watson suffering a shoulder injury Lamb has got the Knights #6 back. He has looked a little lost in the new system though, with Pearce and boom rookie fullback Kayln Ponga the focus of the attack.

Jeremy Marshall-King – The half-brother of Benji Marshall, Jeremy (JMK) has shown promise in the early rounds of 2018. He wasn’t even part of the Dogs top 30 for most of the preseason. However, after Moses Suli was sensationally cut prior to the start of the season, JMK was moved into the fold. His next move was to oust Fa’amanu Brown as the clubs utility player, before being moved to five-eighth over Matt Frawley. Like his brother, I think he best position is five-eighth, as his speed, footwork and step are a big part of his game, meaning the extra space of playing a little wider would help.

No Fly Zone 2019
Cameron Munster – No doubt Munster is a star, but his skill set is just a better version of Blake Austin’s. I believe we need a ball distributor over a ball runner. Not to mention I can’t see the Storm letting him go.
Tom Wright – He seems to be a utility back more than a genuine half. I’ve seen him play centre, fullback and five-eighth.
Luke Brooks – This year he has looked a more complete player. However, resent history suggests he is a poor defender, which is something we can’t afford.
Fa'amanu Brown – Looks a backup option only.
Cooper Cronk – I think retirement will follow this contract.
Mitchell Moses – He certainly looks a better player since leaving the Tigers, however, his defence is still suspect.

Young players with good reputations, but we need to win now: Tyson Gamble, Mason Lino

Players I have no information on: Jake Clifford, Manase Fainu, Dean Hawkins, Darren Nicholls, Joe Lovodua

Options 2019:
Tuimoala Lolohea – I believe the Raiders tried to sign him mid last year, before he went to the Tigers. He was a very talented player to come out of the Warriors system. Can play anywhere in the backline. He is a handy goal kicker too. However, what he did in a terrible Tigers side at five-eighth last year was worth taking note of. He is currently playing fullback at the Tigers, but even then, struggling to keep Corey Thompson out of the role. I think he could do well at five-eighth here, and if not there, he could well be a useful player to have to slide back to fullback if Wighton were to be suspended.

Te Maire Martin – He was a very talented junior at the Panthers. Got his debut, and due to personality issues, apparently, was traded to the Cowboys after Thurston got injured last year. He proved a more than able foil for Michael Morgan. I would like to have seen him run the show at either the Panthers or Cowboys for a period, just to see if he was capable of it, as I think he is another on the ‘five-eighth’ list.

Corey Norman – Strong rumours that we are already linked to him, possibly a mid-season signing. He would be the most talented halves signing the Raiders have made for as long as I can remember. I think ideally, Norman is a five-eighth, however, he showed in the early years at the Eels that he is perfectly capable of stepping up and running the show as a halfback. He has a very good kicking game, a good sleight of hand, and deceptive speed and step.

Nathan Cleary – This kid looks an absolute stud. However, make no mistake, to get him away from Penrith you are going to have to offer north of a million a season.

Shaun Johnson – Like Cleary, you would need to make ‘an offer you can’t refuse’ to get him to leave the Warriors. He is a genuine superstar of the game.

Re-Sign existing:
Ata Hingano – It’s too soon to really say what we should do here. I believe he was signed as a cheaper, younger version of Blake Austin.

Sam Williams – The prodigal son has returned of chance #3. I think unless we are re-signing him as depth, he will be moved on again.

Final Thoughts:
I would cut Austin loose; I don’t think he fits into this team or the style of play anymore.

Of the options, I would pass on Elgey and Jacks. I don’t think they are what we are looking for. I can’t see us getting Cleary or Johnson either, even if that would be amazing.

The problem we do have is all the young halves are coming off contract the year before the established guys, while it’s the reverse for our halves, so that does make things a little trickier. I like the looks of Doueihi and JMK. They look like they could be exciting talents. JMK especially, as I think there is raw talent there, and some of that comes with the Marshall pedigree. However, I think he is the hardest to get a gauge on. He could be a fizzer, or a firecracker, I just don’t know yet, and playing in a bad Dogs side doesn’t help either.

I think you have to play it a little safe and retain Sezer. I would only cut Sezer loose if it meant landing Cleary or Johnson, or Norman and one of the other established halves, Lamb, Maire Martin or Lolohea on this list for 2019.

[SeeBee101]

Great post Matt. I disagree about Jacks. From what I've seen he would be a good foil for Sezer. I'd also have a crack at getting young Jack Clifford from the Cowboys. He is currently flying in the Intrust QLD Cup scoring 6 tries in the first 6 rounds.

Norman would be a good option, although I believe he has already dismissed coming to the Raiders.

Brooks has had a great start to this season. Maybe we might finally see the real 'Brooks' not surrounded by Moses and Teddy.

[T_R]

This is beyond great. Fantastic posts!

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[Lucy]

Coach - None

Back up - Ricky Stuart

Off Contract - I wish.

Requirement - On decent coach.

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[bonehead]

Te Maire Martin was a Tigs junior, let go to retain Brooks and Moses, off field dramas at Penrith he's being groomed to play in JT's absence up north.

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[reptar]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

[zim]

I'm in the cut Austin loose camp too. Though he improved he was still doing silly stuff in the defensive line on his comeback game; walking forward slower than the rest of the line, backpedaling when targeted, dropping in behind his second rower then sprinting to cover the gap he created (at least that effort to cover that gap has improved). I can't figure out what he thinks he's doing when he does this. Covering a kick in behind on the 3rd tackle?
He made an excellent 1 on 1 tackle but it's the decision stuff that's going to cause more issues long term.

What we do in the halves all depends on whether we bank on Sezer or not and what happens with Wighton at fullback. I think having Sezer, Hodgo and Wighton as dominant spine players we could easily have a Doueihi or a Jacks be more than fine but Sezer would need to perform as he has in the last 2 games for half a season or more for us to be in the premiership frame.
As far as quality going for a Norman or Munster would appear to be the safer option in that you're signing established halves with big game experience that have high ceilings, and with Sezer reportedly only costing 500k you can spend a bit more on a partner. Both have big question marks. Norman because he's rumoured to want to run the team and Sezer plays better when he's running it. Munster is a loose cannon off the field. One big plus for Munster is his versatility and he's already spent time in a system where the other 3 spine players are expected to be more dominant.
I think we could get away with a cheaper contract for Norman than Munster. He's playing like a guy who needs a change of scenery and is not a rep player.

It's a roll of the dice either way in some regard but if we are staying with Wighton at fullback next year I'd grab Munster or Doueihi depending on where you want to spend your cap. If something happens and Cotric ends up at fullback I'd go for Norman or Johnson.

[T_R]

I wonder what he'll get paid by a Sydney club?

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[-PJ-]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

[reptar]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

How about Dobson? Would that work?

[-PJ-]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

How about Dobson? Would that work?

No reptar..sorry.

[edwahu]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

Supercoach.

[reptar]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

How about Dobson? Would that work?

No reptar..sorry.

Albert Kelly?

[reptar]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

Supercoach.

that's how the cap is managed!

[-PJ-]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

How about Dobson? Would that work?

No reptar..sorry.

Albert Kelly?

No reptar..sorry.

[reptar]

Wow Matt, plenty of of work went into that write up and thanks a heap..great read.

What we need is a billionaire businessman to pass a big fat cheque under the table and get Nathan Cleary to Canberra. It's time for us to get serious, claim a scalp. I want a name so big we have people in the league world sayin " wow look at them Raiders go now"

Let's get in the market, cause a stir. Let's find that special player who'll take us to that long awaited 4th premiership. We've waited long enough.

Cleary would be ideal.

How about Dobson? Would that work?

No reptar..sorry.

Albert Kelly?

No reptar..sorry.

Daniel Mortimer?

[-PJ-]

No reptar..sorry.

[reptar]

No reptar..sorry.

damn it I'm running out of halfbacks!

[Matt]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

Sounds to high tech for Don and Ricky

[Matt]

@SeeBee101, cheers.
@T_R, cheers.
@PJ, cheers.

Glad u all enjoyed it.

[reptar]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

Sounds to high tech for Don and Ricky

You think Don gets an accountant for the property portfolio?

[Matt]

I can assume the Raiders have some recruitment software they use. Excel?

Sounds to high tech for Don and Ricky

You think Don gets an accountant for the property portfolio?

Only out of sufferance

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[The Green Hornet]

Fantastic post, excellent read. Thanks Matt

[Matt]

Fantastic post, excellent read. Thanks Matt

Cheers

[Nadruku]

George Williams from Wigan in the ESL


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[Matt]

Better scrub Hastings.

Apparently several Manly Players have told Barrett they wont play with Hastings and he's being shopped around for immediate release.

TELEGRAPH STORY

There is also a rumour, related to the same, about a 'brew ha ha' at training.

[zim]

TBH I thought you just had him there for completeness anyway. Walk up scrub.

[greeneyed]

Hastings now won't get a start at any other NRL club.

Good write ups Matt, btw!

[afgtnk]

Nice post mate.

I'd cut Austin loose if we can get a strong runner who has greater halves play.

I'd cut Sezer if we can someone who's more dominating and creative with the ball.

Can't agree with the Jacks and Croft assessment - despite being dropped, I rate Croft's talent very highly.

If we're being real, we have to take a punt on young up and coming guy if we want to find our dominant half for the next decade.

[Wiki Special]

Great post. For mine, I would be looking at going this route for our halves;

Five-Eighth: Jack Wighton
Backup: Paul Roache

Halfback: Aidan Sezer
Backup: Cooper Bambling

I also believe we let Austin walk and we absolutely throw the kitchen sink at Munster for 2020 on November 1 this year when we can legally contact his manager. He will be close to the best player in the game at his peak in my opinion. Obviously this means 2019 we don't have him but I would stick with my thoughts in other topics of going with Wighton at 6 with Munster coming to play his preferred fullback role. Cotric to play there before moving to centre in 2020. If Cotric thrives at fullback then Wighton to centre and Munster plays five-eighth.

P.S. I actually don't think we'd have a shot to get Munster unfortunately and agree with those who think we need to find a young talent. With that said if the dream of Munster wasn't to happen I'd sign Tyrone May after a good look at how his knee has recovered. He is a legitimate star level youngster who may get squeezed out at Penrith.

Five-Eighth: Tyrone May
Backup: Paul Roache

Halfback: Aidan Sezer
Backup: Cooper Bambling

P.P.S. I realise May is signed until 2020 but Penrith will have to release players to keep Cleary. They can't keep them all and contracts are broken all the time.

[BlameItOnTheBooger]

Great post Matt. Unfortunately it really shows the limited options we’re faced with for new halves (partic vs the options that were around last year with the new EA). If Sezer doesn’t want to stay and we can’t land Norman to replace him, we are in a bit of trouble. My view is we make it Sezer’s team, he touches it 2 or 3 times a set, and have any sort of running 5/8 who can tackle. Including Wighton.


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[-PJ-]

Ok guys I think Matt has had enough wind blown up his backside....

[reptar]

I came here expecting to see the Raiders in Scouting uniforms at Camp Cottermouth, and all I got was supercoach.

[LastRaider]

Who do we think has the overall say between Don, Ricky and Peter M?


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