Matt's Match-ups 2018

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Matt
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Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 1: Raiders V Titans

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The NRL season is finally here!

I think I’ve said all I needed to about the season to come on The Greenhouse Live on Monday night at Hale + Mary - but if you missed it, you can catch a replay on The Greenhouse Facebook page.

As most of you will know by now, Matt's Match-ups isn't a popularity contest, nor a big name ego stroking blog, this is a form guide... as seen by Matt. However, as it is only Round 1, there is no form guide to go on, so it’s the only week I do a 'pick your poison' set of skins.

For the rest of the year, my rules are as follows

Rules for Matt’s Match-ups
1. Skins are selected on form. That is done, in order, by ‘the eye test’, then box scores, then by said player's NRL status/generally accepted ability.
2. Injury rule – A player's 'form guide' is affected by the number of games he plays, therefore if he is injured that is broken. The greater the length of time out, the worse the effect on 'form'.
3. NRL debutants – They cannot win the skin in their debut game (this applies to anyone who has zero NRL experience).
4. 'Milford Rule' – no matter how poorly a super star is going, if I tip against them, they WILL shred us on game day.

Titans V Raiders

Michael Gordon 1. Jack Wighton
Anthony Don 2. Nick Cotric
Dale Copley 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Konrad Hurrell 4. Joseph Leilua
Phillip Sami 5. Jordan Rapana
Kane Elgey 6. Aidan Sezer
Ashley Taylor 7. Sam Williams
Jai Arrow 8. Junior Paulo
Nathan Peats 9. Siliva Havili
Leilani Latu 10. Shannon Boyd
Kevin Proctor 11. Josh Papalii
Ryan James © 12. Joseph Tapine
Bryce Cartwright 13. Elliott Whitehead

Interchange
Mitch Rein 14. Blake Austin
Max King 15. Luke Bateman
Will Matthews 16. Dunamis Lui
Morgan Boyle 17. Sia Soliola

Extended Bench
Joe Greenwood 18. Charlie Gubb
Jai Whitbread 19. Brad Abbey
Tyrone Roberts-Davis 20. Royce Hunt
AJ Brimson 21. Craig Garvey

(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)

Match-ups:

Fullbacks:
If you have been following this at all over the past few years, you will know how highly I regard Jack Wighton, but in Round 1 there is no form guide to go on, so I’m going to pick the ever reliable Michael Gordon. He had a very good year for the Roosters last year, and he provides experience and stability to any team. He is also a very good goal kicker.

Wingers:
Anthony Don can score a try, and Philip Sami has some decent wraps coming out of Under 20s, but Nick Cotric and Jordan Rapana are two of the best wingers in the competition. This is easy.

Centres:
Jarrod Croker isn’t coming back from a knee injury this time. So Dale Copley, there is nowhere to hide. I’ve gone for a draw between Konrad Hurrell and Joseph Leilua, because both are erratic, inconsistent, infuriating footballers, who on any given day can be untouchable match winners.

Halves:
Kane Elgey is a speed bump, so I’ll take Aidan Sezer over him. Sezer will have a very different role this year though, especially while Hodgson is injured. He will be playing quite a few minutes at hooker.

Ash Taylor is a very good young player, who reminds me of what Sezer did at the Titans a few years back. This is Sam Williams' third shot at the Raiders, and as much as I love the bloke, that says something. A lot rides him his shoulders in the early part of the year, with him starting at half.

Prop:
Jai Arrow looks a very good young player, and is a great buy from the Broncos, but I’ll run with the known wrecking ball at prop, Junior Paulo. Leilani Latu is another talented young player the Titans have picked up this year. However, at his best, Shannon Boyd earned an Australian jumper.

Luke Bateman is all heart. He seems to have regained that fearless running, but is also a quality defender. That is a very handy thing during the latter part of a half. But he wasn’t in good form last year. Max King really impressed me last year. He is a big lump of a kid who doesn’t turn 21 til May, but played 17 games last year. He typified that gritty, all ticker, never die attitude that Titans had last year during their injury ravaged season. I think he has a decent future ahead of him, and is my only pick on the Titans' bench.

Will Matthews started his career on the Gold Coast, moved to St George and has returned. He is nearly 100 games into his career, but still is seen as handy depth only. Dunamis Lui is returning from an ACL injury. I thought he was just coming good before he got injured last year. He also looked pretty good in the Sunshine Coast trial. He is just short of 90 games, but also hasn’t really been anything more than a depth player, so I can’t spilt them.

Morgan Boyle has a strong Raiders connection. He is the son of Raiders player David Boyle, and played in the Raiders juniors. He looks to be a reasonable footballer with a lot of heart. The Raiders have gone with Sia Soliola, the Raiders ‘spiritual leader’, full or experience and versatility. Head to head, I’ll take the old bull, because a cool, influential head can win you games.

Hooker/utility:
Siliva Havili was surprisingly effective at the World Cup, but Nathan Peats he is not. Peats is the NSW incumbent hooker, and had to earn his stripes to get it.

Blake Austin at his best runs rings around Mitch Rein. Rein big noted himself at the Dragons, then came crashing to earth when no one was willing to pay his asking price. His stint at Penrith seems to have humbled him a little. My only worry about Rein is he does love a dummy half try against the Green Machine.

Backrow:
Kevin Proctor is no longer the same player he was when standing outside Cooper Cronk. While he is still a Kiwi international, he is not Josh Papalii. At his best, Papalii is a Queensland Origin player and starting Kangaroo.

Like his Kiwi team mate, Joseph Tapine has proven he is capable of being a quality international footballer. However, he isn’t consistent enough for my liking. He has all the talent, but little things, like niggle, ruin it. Ryan James seems to have got past that niggle stuff, and I think the captaincy was the catalyst. He is a tough, uncompromising player with a big motor and 'big play' ability.

Elliott Whitehead is a very good footballer, and was a big part of the English charge to the World Cup final. However, Bryce Cartwright is one of the few players with the ability to turn a game by themselves. His form was down year last year, with off field issues hampering him. But the year before, he was one of the best players in the NRL. It’s a new team, but he showed signs of getting back to being that guy in the trial.

Result
The tally is Titans 6 and Raiders 9 with two draws. I can’t really pick this game. I think the forward packs are pretty even, so if it stays tight, it will be interesting. The Raiders have the flair in the backs though. Will that be the difference?

Result: Raiders (by 4-8).

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zim
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by zim »

Thank god you chose Cartwright over Whitehead. It was all starting to make too much sense ;)
Love your work matty.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Makaveli »

How does Copley get over Toots

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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by El_Capitano »

I think it’s backwards... I think the non bolds are the winners?


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How soon IS now?
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Makaveli »

Ah. That makes sense then. Carry on

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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by zim »

El_Capitano wrote: March 7, 2018, 5:17 pm I think it’s backwards... I think the non bolds are the winners?


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Nah the bolded players are the winners. Unless you guys are seeing something different on Tapatalk; Croker is bolded and wins the skin.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

Cartwright over an International. This thread becomes more ridiculous every year.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Finite »

Green eyed Mick wrote: March 7, 2018, 5:42 pm Cartwright over an International. This thread becomes more ridiculous every year.
Depends which Carwright we get on the day...
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

Finite wrote: March 7, 2018, 5:54 pm
Green eyed Mick wrote: March 7, 2018, 5:42 pm Cartwright over an International. This thread becomes more ridiculous every year.
Depends which Carwright we get on the day...
That's exactly right.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

zim wrote: March 7, 2018, 3:36 pm Thank god you chose Cartwright over Whitehead. It was all starting to make too much sense ;)
Love your work matty.
Cheers Zim
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Finchy »

This is a surprisingly non-controversial Matt's Matchup's. The only iffy one is Cartwright over Whitehead, but based on game-breaking potential, Cartwright wins. Potential is the key word there though.

With Croker beating Copley this year, all is good.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by greeneyed »

Finchy wrote: March 7, 2018, 7:27 pm This is a surprisingly non-controversial Matt's Matchup's. The only iffy one is Cartwright over Whitehead, but based on game-breaking potential, Cartwright wins. Potential is the key word there though.

With Croker beating Copley this year, all is good.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Ruben Daley »

I know Round One is the exception to the infamous form rule but I still find it hard to see how Cartwright gets it over Whitehead. Cartwright’s best was exciting in attack but he’s consistently been a poor defender and his peak was pretty short-lived and quite a while ago.

Can’t complain about the rest though. Nice to have this blog back.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Cranky Old Man »

So we have one of the most consistently good international players who is good on both sides of the ball and a noted defender who can use the ball sufficiently well that he has often filled in in the backs versus Cartwright, a non defender notorious for drifting in and out of games, and often never really arriving at a game at all. And you pick Cartwright!!

Good to see you back, Matt.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by RedRaider »

Matt won't JC and Hurrell line up against each other? Who is your skin in this scenario?

I agree with GEM on the EW vs Cartwright skin. EW played well in the World Cup for England. He finished the 2017 season playing very well at lock for the Raiders. EW is a current International forward while Cartwright has always had his defensive problems which saw him shifted from back row to 5/8 to bench at the Panthers. EW has the skin for mine Matt.

I also think Joe Tapine is better than the Penalty prone Ryan James. But as usual, full marks to you Matt for starting off the season with your always entertaining 'match ups'.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by WMS »

Why Matt Sucks:

Bryce Cartwright > Elliott Whitehead

This is why Matt sucks.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by greeneyed »

Interesting first post! Hopefully Matt's not too offended...
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by bonehead »

matt knows nobody will read it if he doesn't throw controversy

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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Johno »

Make no mistske EW is a match winner too.

Looking forward to seeing fully fit toots on Hurrell.

I'm happy your spending the time to do this again Matt.

Every week I look forward to it and every week I also look forward to people giving it to you.

Love it!
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by edwahu »

It would be boring if Matt didn't toss in his clickbait selection each week.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 2: Raiders V Knights

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Raiders. Knights. For Newcastle, is an all new Knights. There are 10 new faces for the Hunter outfit in 2018. They paid top dollar for precocious North Queensland youngster Kayln Ponga. They added some grunt up front with the experienced duo Jacob Lillyman from the Warriors and Chris Heighington from Sharks. The Knights added competition at hooker with an astute purchase in Slade Griffin. They bought a pair of Broncos in Tautau Moga and Herman Ese’ese. They added three more Roosters to 2017 mid-year signing Shaun Kenny-Dowall, in Connor Watson, Aidan Guerra and marquee signing, the man with a point to prove, Mitchell Pearce. This is not the side that won two games in two seasons, and they proved that with a win in the golden point thriller against Manly last week.

As for the Raiders, the main change from 2017 to 2018 is that Josh Hodgson isn’t there. The thing that didn’t change… the Raiders' ability to lose a big lead, lose it in the last few seconds, and lose by six points or less. This is something that the Raiders have done 24 times since 2014, while only winning nine. In other words, pray for a blood bath, otherwise the Raiders probably won’t be on the winning side. In other, unfortunate, news, Joseph Tapine has a dislocated thumb, and is out indefinitely.

Knights V Raiders

Kayln Ponga 1. Jack Wighton
Shaun Kenny-Dowall 2. Nick Cotric
Sione Mata’utai 3. Jarrod Croker
Tautau Moga 4. Joseph Leilua
Nathan Ross 5. Jordan Rapana
Connor Watson 6. Blake Austin
Mitchell Pearce 7. Sam Williams
Herman Ese’ese 8. Sia Soliola
Slade Griffin 9. Siliva Havili
Jacob Lillyman 10. Shannon Boyd
Lachlan Fitzgibbon 11. Josh Papalii
Aidan Guerra 12. Elliott Whitehead
Mitchell Barnett 13. Luke Bateman

Interchange
Brock Lamb 14. Aidan Sezer
Chris Heighington 15. Junior Paulo
Jamie Buhrer 16. Dunamis Lui
Daniel Safiti 17. Charlie Gubb

Extended Bench
Ken Sio 18. Craig Garvey
Jacob Safiti 19. Michael Oldfield
Danny Levi 20. Royce Hunt
Luke Yates 21. Jack Murchie

(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)

Match-ups:

Fullbacks:
I thought Jack Wighton was one of the Raiders' best last week. He scored a good try, ran hard and was a big part of the try saver on Michael Gordon just prior to the Elgey try. However, last week Kayln Ponga proved he is worth every cent of that contract. He scored a try and was in everything. There is a very good chance that he pushes the likes of Billy Slater and James Tedesco as the best fullback in the game this year.

Wingers:
I have split the wingers' skins this week. Shaun Kenny-Dowall edged Nick Cotric with 122m versus 102, five tackle breaks to seven. Jordan Rapana edged Nathan Ross 118m versus 102m and eight tackle breaks to two... and Rapana had a try assist for the Leilua try. All four wingers have the ability to break the game open with individual brilliance. However, I see only one who also has capitulation in their history, one SKD.

Centres:
In the No. 3 jerseys, it’s a battle of the headgear, white versus black, captain versus former captain, HIA last week versus a walking HIA. Sione Mata’utai has had lots of issues with head knocks in the past couple of seasons, and that coincided with his move to the back row. Moving back to the centres might just preserve his career, but not if he has to tackle Konrad Hurrell too often. Jarrod Croker met his arch nemesis last week in Hurrell. Hurrell made a huge carry from the kickoff after the Titans' first try... that left Croker lying on the ground, before leaving the field for an HIA. It’s not the first time Hurrell has had the best of Croker, but to his credit, the first thing he did upon returning was making an important tackle on Hurrell. This showed the skipper's toughness, and this gives him the edge this week.

Both the No. 4's love a fend, and a bit of space to work. Tautau Moga was very good for the Broncos in 2017, and the Knights made a good purchase picking him up. Despite a couple of costly plays, a dropped ball over the line, and a bat down on the fifth tackle, I am still edging the skin Joey Leilua’s way. He scored a try and made nearly 100m for the game.

Halves:
Blake Austin started the game at five-eighth, despite being named on the bench. Austin looked good with the ball in hand, but he wasn’t as good without it. Connor Watson was one of the Knights' worst last week. They looked much better once Lamb came on. Both these players are run first players, and while Watson’s 94m suggests he had a good game, I wasn’t that impressed. Austin’s 31m is a worry though. Both players missed five tackles, and are defensive liabilities for their side.

Sam Williams was impressive in that first half an hour on the Gold Coast. Exactly what the Raiders have been looking for from their halfback. However, once the Raiders lost control of the ball, they never really wrestled the ascendancy back. Williams might have been the Raiders' best last week, but Mitchell Pearce did the most important thing a half can do. Find a way to win. There aren’t too many players that carry so much public opinion with them in the way Pearce does. Off field controversy, Origin scapegoat, famous League name. All bring added weight on his shoulders. However, having seen his former team sign the current Australian halfback, he decided that the club no long had faith in him. So, off to the Knights for a fresh start and a point to prove. In Round 1 he kicked the winning field goal in extra time; he got the win, an extra time win, the first for Newcastle in five years.

Prop:
Herman Ese’ese was enormous on debut for the Knights against Manly, with 169m, five tackle breaks and 24 tackles. Sia Soliola was actually pretty energetic last week, especially in defenve. However he isn’t suited to prop.

Like Ese’ese, Shannon Boyd was enormous for the Raiders last week. He was a massive reason the Raiders got out of the blocks so quickly. He dominated the ruck, and the Raiders scored points off the back of him. Jacob Lillyman did his part last week, but for me was mostly unnoticed.

Chris Heighington did his part and did make a couple of telling carries, but was mostly unnoticed. Junior Paulo’s first touch in 2018 was one to forget, but outside of that he proved stronger in his first hit out of the year. I’m glad to see that he has been split up from Boyd. I think that is best for the team, especially if Ricky Stuart is to continue with three mobile middles on the bench.

Charlie Gubb will make his debut for the Raiders this week, replacing the injured Joseph Tapine. He was one of the better performing forwards in the intra-club trial, and the trial against the Bulldogs. I thought he was a little hard done by, being left out in Round 1. Daniel Safiti continued on from where he left off last year. This is exactly the type of impact the Raiders need off the bench, a third big to continue the momentum. He is also very capable defensively, making 31 tackles last week, with only a single miss.

Hooker/utility:
Siliva Havili got off to a great start on debut, with a try after three minutes. He was out there while the Raiders were dominating, but he and Boyd went off, and the momentum shifted. The Knights have bought a promising Storm player in Slade Griffin. The Storm stuck by Griffin through a few injury affected seasons, but eventually, he was let go. Griffin looks a carbon copy of former Raider, and successful Storm hooker/lock, Ryan Hinchliffe... right down to the blonde hair. Griffin was outstanding for the Knights and bagged a try on debut for them.

Aidan Sezer was named to start last week, but swapped with Austin, reverting to the bench on game day. He had a mixed game at hooker. I thought he did a great job standing up to the role defensively, but what little attack he did take part in was disjointed. He also dropped a ball while the Raiders were in the attacking zone, which proved costly. When Brock Lamb came on last week, the Knights' hopes shifted their way. He was very good, a much better option in the halves for the Knights. He is off contract at the end of the year, so he has plenty to play for. Should the Raiders need another option in the halves, he would be one I’d be looking at, especially after missing out on another Knights' half, Jack Cogger this year.

Backrow:
Josh Papalii had a very good start to the game. Like the rest of the side he was very dominant, making a line break that ultimately led to a momentum shift, with Croker dropping the delayed pass. He did make 98m in the game, but a lot of those metres came early in the game. Lachlan Fitzgibbon is a bit of a throwback to edge backrowers of old. He is a hole running try sneak, a bit like Ryan Hoffman or Steve ‘Beaver’ Menzies. Fitzgibbon has nine tries in 20 career games, crossing last week. I’m sure this will be a talking point, but I suspect this is one of very very few times Papalii will lose his skin this year.

Aidan Guerra came to the Knights, and nearly grabbed a share of the captaincy. His experience and ability is a massive boost to the Knights' pack. He was another player who was very good on debut. However, for me, Elliott Whitehead proved just how good a player he is. He started at lock, playing through the middle, and then had to cover Croker in the centres while he was off for an HIA, before settling on an edge to cover for the injured Tapine. It didn’t matter where he was moved, he was a class act. He made 101m and 38 tackles in an 80 minute battle.

With Whitehead shifting to the edge to cover the injured Tapine, Luke Bateman comes into the starting 13 at lock. I thought Bateman had a good workmanlike game, but he has not regained the enthusiasm and impact he had in 2016. The man we released to retain him, Mitch Barnett, is proving every bit a quality NRL player. He has always been one for the physical side of the game, even as a young player in the Raiders under 20s system. He made 111m and 29 tackles last week.

Jamie Buhrer, while still with the ‘C’ next to his name, isn’t getting the sort of game time I expected this year. He has made way for the experienced Guerra and been forced to the bench by their young edge forward in Fitzgibbon. He is still more important to his team, and more productive than Dunamis Lui. I thought Lui was good in his return from an ACL injury, but how effective can you be in 25 minutes, and without the ball? With Tapine injured, and Bateman starting, I suspect he will play a bigger role this week.

Result
The tally is Knights 10 and Raiders 7. After another close loss, it is very hard to have any faith in the home side. The visitors aren’t the same team that pushed the Raiders into two golden point games in the past couple of years. They are much much better. I can’t see a home victory, and that really saddens me.

Result: Knights in a show of force (by 12-16).

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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by -PJ- »

Lachlan Fitzgibbon is a grub..that is all.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Northern Raider »

Based on their career performance SKD has it over Cotric. Based on recent form its a no contest the other way. Fitzgibbon is OK but its a stretch rating him ahead of Paps. That said I was disappointed that Paps didn't step up more in the 2nd half on Sunday when we really needed some leadership on the field.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by CJR »

I had a stroke reading SKD over Cotric


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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by dubby »

Wow

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The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by -PJ- »

I could win the skin over BJ..that is all.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

CJR wrote: March 14, 2018, 8:44 am I had a stroke reading SKD over Cotric


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Wish u well in your recovery... though as a Raiders fan im surprised that was the thing that set u off :P
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Finchy »

The 'SKD > Cotric' and 'Fitzgibbon > Papalii' are the controversial ones this week.

If SKD beats Cotric based on career achievements rather than current form, then Papalii should beat Fitzgibbon on career achievements as well.

Also, Sione Matautia always carves us up. Chalk him up for another two tries against us this week.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by gangrenous »

I think you can add the Leilua, Austin, and maybe Paulo to the controversial list.

I mean Newcastle won last week, so Moga beats BJ just because he didn’t piss 2 competition points away.
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Neeeegz »

-PJ- wrote: March 14, 2018, 7:56 am Lachlan Fitzgibbon is a grub..that is all.
Yes he is. Fact.
Neeeegz
John Ferguson
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Neeeegz »

-PJ- wrote: March 14, 2018, 9:09 am I could win the skin over BJ..that is all.
Aren't you a winger ? Or a like the rest of us.. Whingers :roflmao
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bonehead
Laurie Daley
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by bonehead »

Neeeegz wrote:
-PJ- wrote: March 14, 2018, 7:56 am Lachlan Fitzgibbon is a grub..that is all.
Yes he is. Fact.
no he's a tuff bugger

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Edrick The Entertainer
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Finite
David Furner
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Finite »

Thanks for the write up Matt. Good read.
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Matt
Don Furner
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Matt »

Finite wrote: March 14, 2018, 8:28 pm Thanks for the write up Matt. Good read.
Cheers
Ilanraiders
John Ferguson
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Re: Matt's Match-ups 2018

Post by Ilanraiders »

Papa is better then Fitzgibbon......
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
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