Through green eyes: 2018 Season Review
2018. Another failed season for the Canberra Raiders. The Raiders have now made the finals in just one of the past six seasons, three times in the past decade. If it is not the worst period in Canberra Raiders history, it is very close. Next year, it will be 25 years since the Raiders won their last premiership. Only the Eels have experienced a longer premiership drought. Sadly, for Canberra Raiders fans, there doesn’t seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel.
This season was always going to be tough, with star hooker Josh Hodgson on the sidelines for half the season with an ACL injury, suffered in England's World Cup semi final. And as it would turn out, another key player in the Raiders' spine, Jack Wighton, would also spend half the season on the sideline, suspended after he pleaded guilty to assault charges.
A lot of Raiders fans would point to some very disappointing refereeing performances this season, as well. There were some horrible blunders in the close loss to the Sharks. It was not the only game where there were refereeing errors in close matches.
But other clubs have dealt with refereeing blunders. Other clubs have dealt with serious injury. And some of those teams are playing in the finals. The Raiders’ defence, discipline, and inability to consistently win in the clutch for much of the season were the reasons they did not make the top eight.
The most frustrating thing for the supporters... and no doubt the club and players... is that wins against the Roosters and Rabbitohs in the final stages of the season showed that the Raiders had a squad to compete in the finals. Up until Round 23, Canberra had not beaten a top eight team - but then produced their best wins of the season against minor premiership contenders.
The Raiders ended the season with eight losses by four points or less, and five losses by two points or less. The season started with three losses in a row by two points or less, less than a converted try in aggregate. It set the tone for the season. The Raiders were repeatedly in a position to win in the final stages... but buckled. They lost five games where they led by 10 points or more. They did win a couple of close ones themselves. There was an extraordinary come from behind win over the Bulldogs at Belmore in the final minutes. There was a one point win in the final minute over the Sea Eagles at Canberra Stadium. But there were many more close losses than wins.
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So what do the statistics tell us about the season?
Canberra certainly scored enough points to be playing finals football. Only the Rabbitohs produced more points and more tries than the Raiders. They averaged 24 points and 3.9 tries per match. They were the leading attacking team with one round remaining - and came very close to being the only team in NRL history to miss the finals whilst scoring most points. They did end the year as the only bottom eight side with a positive points differential. But they also ended the year five wins away from top eight qualification.
The Raiders did not score a lot of tries because they made a lot of running metres. They average 1326 running metres per match from 145 runs, 15th in the NRL. In addition, Canberra had the lowest kick return metres in the league (just 58 metres on average per game). Canberra didn’t kick much either... and were third lowest in the NRL for kicking metres (380 metres per match) and last for forced line drop outs (one per game).
The Raiders scored tries through the strike of their outside backs. Canberra ranked second for tackle breaks (30 per match, behind the Dragons with 32) and third for line breaks (five per game). Nick Cotric (22), Jordan Rapana (17) and Joey Leilua (12) led the way for the club with line breaks, while Cotric (129), Leilua (84) and Rapana (81) led in tackle breaks. Cotric ranked first in the NRL in tackle breaks and third in line breaks.
The Raiders also created opportunities from their dummy half running - ranking second in the NRL (behind the Bulldogs) at an average of 13 per game. Jordan Rapana made four per game (fourth in the league behind Damien Cook, Issac Luke and Cameron McInnes).
One plus is that the Raiders successfully reduced their error rate. They ranked fifth in the NRL for least errors (10 per match) and fourth for completion rate (77 per cent). The Raiders were not a team that passed a lot. They ranked last in the NRL for general play passes (80 per match, compared with 125 per match from the Rabbitohs) and 11th in the NRL for offloads (nine per game).
Canberra’s biggest problem, though, was its defence. The Raiders ranked fifth in the league for most points (23 per match) and tries (3.6 per match) conceded. The Roosters were the benchmark team, conceding just 15 points and two tries per game. The Storm also concede less than 16 points per game. That’s the mark that has proven to win premierships in previous years - and underlines what improvement the Raiders have to make on this score.
The Raiders were middle of the pack for running metres conceded (1380m on average per game), so that has improved on recent years. They also improved on offloads conceded (nine per game), with only the Panthers and Warriors conceding less. The Raiders ranked eighth for fewest missed tackles. But they also ranked equal fourth for most line breaks conceded (five per game). Blake Austin and Joey Leilua were often targeted by opposition offences, with Austin conceding 19 try causes and 24 line break causes. Leilua conceded 17 try causes. It’s no doubt one reason why Austin is moving on in 2019.
Discipline was an area where the Raiders’ performance declined. Only the Panthers conceded more penalties than the Raiders in 2018 (Panthers 9.4 per game, Raiders 9.2). And too often the Raiders failed to defend an error or a penalty.
Defence and game management in the clutch are going to be the key areas where the Raiders need to improve in 2019. The Raiders will be better off in having Josh Hodgson and Jack Wighton available for the full season. But both of these areas have plagued the team for too long. The club is shifting to more mobile forwards, with the recruitment of John Bateman and Ryan Sutton - so that should help with some of the defensive lapses in the middle. But it looks like Canberra will still be short one top line half. Hopefully, some solutions are found in the off season.
SEASON REPORT CARD
Attack: A
Defence: C
Forwards: C
Backs: B
Spine: C
Overall: C
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Every week I rate the Raiders players on a scale of 0-10... and for mine, the Raiders player of the year is Josh Papalii. He returned from the World Cup unfit, and struggled for form in the opening month... so much so he was dropped to Mounties in Round 5. Happily, it proved the turning point and he produced some blockbuster performances.
Josh Hodgson averaged more points per game, but he played too few games to challenge Papalii as my player of the year. Joe Tapine also had great season, finishing top three for average points per game. However he only had 16 appearances due to a combination of injury and suspension.
Nick Cotric and Elliott Whitehead finished in the top three for total points, with both playing in every game, consistently well.
Here are the total points and average points per match for the year:
Total points:
Josh Papalii 162
Nick Cotric 156
Elliott Whitehead 156
Sia Soliola 151
Joey Leilua 147
Siliva Havilii 142
Jordan Rapana 139
Dunamis Lui 135
Blake Austin 128
Shannon Boyd 126
Luke Bateman 125
Joe Tapine 111
Junior Paulo 110
Jarrod Croker 103
Aidan Sezer 103
Jack Wighton 85
Josh Hodgson 79
Sam Williams 79
Michael Oldfield 42
Liam Knight 41
Brad Abbey 40
Ata Hingano 28
Charlie Gubb 20
Emre Guler 18
Jack Murchie 10
Average points per match:
Josh Hodgson 7.2
Josh Papalii 7.0
Joe Tapine 6.9
Jordan Rapana 6.6
Jack Wighton 6.5
Nick Cotric 6.5
Elliott Whitehead 6.5
Sia Soliola 6.3
Joey Leilua 6.1
Jarrod Croker 6.1
Shannon Boyd 6.0
Emre Guler 6.0
Siliva Havilii 5.9
Blake Austin 5.8
Junior Paulo 5.8
Aidan Sezer 5.7
Luke Bateman 5.7
Sam Williams 5.6
Dunamis Lui 5.6
Michael Oldfield 5.3
Jack Murchie 5.0
Liam Knight 4.6
Brad Abbey 4.4
Charlie Gubb 4.0
Ata Hingano 3.1
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So that’s the last column of the year. I had to reduce my columns to one a week in the second half of the season, for reasons I won’t go into... but I’ll hopefully get back to normal in 2019. Thanks to all who’ve read the columns this year... and we have a much happier 2019!
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