Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 4 June 2:00pm
Brookvale Oval
Gates open: 9:30am, Holden Cup 9:45am, NSW Premiership 11:45am
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Mostly sunny. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Min 11 Max 20
Round 12 2017. It was a 24-16 win over the Roosters. The Raiders looked like they were in control for much of the match. Yet in the final stages, the Roosters had all the momentum and it looked - for a while - like they would produce an unlikely come from behind win. The Sydney team, missing five Origin representatives, had a chance to level the match in the 74th minute, when a Latrell Mitchell try narrowed the Raiders' lead to 18-16. But Michael Gordon missed the conversion attempt from the sideline. And Canberra not only held on, but pounced on a Roosters' error in the final minute, with an Aidan Sezer try securing the much needed win.
2017 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
More on Round 12: As I saw it
The Raiders head back on the road in Round 13 for a clash with the Manly Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval. The Raiders have named Josh Papalii to back up from State of Origin duty on Wednesday night. However, Luke Bateman has been ruled out for one to two weeks with a minor thumb injury. Sia Soliola is named at lock. The Sea Eagles have named the same top 17 that defeated the Gold Coast in Round 11 - including their two Origin representatives.
Late changes: The Canberra Raiders have omitted Scott Sorensen and Lachlan Croker from their squad to play the Manly Sea Eagles on Sunday. Royce Hunt and Brent Naden remain on the extended bench. The Sea Eagles have not yet announced which players have been omitted, but Nate Myles is likely to be ruled out with injury.
Matt's Match-ups: Which players win the skins?
Franko's Five: Five things the Raiders should do to beat the Sea Eagles
History: The Canberra Raiders have won 20 of 52 matches against the Manly Sea Eagles and drawn one. That's just under a 40 per cent win rate. Things don't improve when you add in the fixtures the Raiders played against the Northern Eagles - they won just two of six games. Canberra has had some long stretches with limited success against Manly. Until 1989, Canberra won just one match against the team from the northern beaches. And since 2004, the Raiders have won just five matches against the Sea Eagles.
Canberra lost the clash played just weeks ago at Canberra Stadium, 20-18, in golden point. It was a match the Raiders could have, and should have, won. More positively, Canberra won both clashes in 2016 - a 30-18 win in Round 13 at Canberra Stadium and a 44-30 victory in Round 25 at Brookvale.
Canberra has won just three of the last 10 matches between the clubs. The Raiders also have a relatively poor record at Brookvale Oval, winning 10 of 26 games played.
2017 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2016 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2016 Round 13 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
In this week's "History Happens", we go back to 1984 for a Round 23 clash at Seiffert Oval, the first ever win for the Raiders over the Sea Eagles. Sam Backo, Craig Bellamy and Matthew Corkery scored tries for the Green Machine, while Phil Blake and Kerry Boustead scored tries for Manly. In the end, the Raiders ran out 16-12 winners in front of 7,727 people.
1984 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: The Raiders have a LLLWW record in the past five matches, while the Sea Eagles are on a LWWLW form line. The Sea Eagles are coming off a bye in Round 12, but were last start winners over the Titans, 30-10.
Betting: The Raiders are now $1.80 favourites. The Sea Eagles are paying $2.05 and have 1.5 points start. The market has shifted towards the Raiders over the week.
Stat attack: It's sixth versus eighth on the ladder - and at the start of the season, not many people would have been tipping that it'd be the Sea Eagles that are ahead of the Raiders. However, both teams have won six matches each.
Attack: The Raiders have now scored more points than any other team (276), but with the bye weekends kicking in, it is the averages that really count. Canberra averages 23 points (four tries) per match, fourth in the competition - while the Sea Eagles rank second in attack (23.6 points or 4.3 tries per match).
The Sea Eagles average a slightly greater share of the ball (50-49 per cent of the ball) and higher completion rate (77-75 per cent) than the Raiders. The Raiders are awarded seven and concede 6.4 penalties per match. In contrast, the Sea Eagles are awarded 6.3 and concede over seven penalties in each game. However, only one team makes fewer errors than the Sea Eagles (9.6 per match), and it's not the Raiders (10.8).
The Sea Eagles make slightly more running metres (1403-1392 metres per match) and neither club are chart toppers. However, both teams make very good metres per run (9.5). The Sea Eagles also make slightly more kick metres than the Raiders (429-412 metres per match).
The Sea Eagles have produced more line breaks (5.4-4.7 per match), offloads (11.7-9.6 per match) and try assists (3.9-3.7 per match) this season. However the Raiders have more tackle breaks (32.8-27.6 per match) than the Sea Eagles - with the Raiders ranked second in the league.
Defence: The Sea Eagles also have slightly better defence. They concede 18.5 points (3.1 tries) per match, compared to 18.8 points (3.3 tries) for the Raiders. The Sharks are the benchmark at present, conceding less than 13 points and two tries per match - so both teams have room for improvement. The Sea Eagles concede fewer running metres than any other team in the competition (1321 metres per match, compared to 1378 metres for the Raiders). The Sea Eagles miss just one more tackle per match than the Raiders (24.4-23.4) and have a slightly worse missed to made tackle ratio. Both concede around 3.5 line breaks and 10 offloads per match.
Our tip: It is very difficult to split the teams, but the Sea Eagles have a slight statistical advantage. One thing in Canberra's favour is that Manly has won just one of five matches at Brookvale this season. It's normally dubbed "the fortress", but perhaps the home ground advantage isn't as strong in season 2017. The other thing in Canberra's favour is that Manly's dangerous fullback Tom Trbojevic is out with injury. Finally, the Raiders have just one player backing up from Origin (Josh Papalii), the Sea Eagles two (Jake Trbojevic and Nate Myles). This match could go either way, but I'm going to tip the Raiders will turn the tables on the Sea Eagles. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Jordan Rapana: "They're a good team and they've hit form and they're playing well, but I'm keen to get one back on them. We lost here at home and I'm still filthy about that. I'm sure the boys are too and I'm sure we want to get one back on them."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Shannon Boyd
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Sia Soliola
14. Adam Clydsdale
15. Joe Tapine
16. Clay Priest
17. Dunamis Lui
18. Scott Sorensen
19. Royce Hunt
20. Brent Naden
21. Lachlan Croker
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Matthew Wright
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Dylan Walker
4. Brian Kelly
5. Akuila Uate
6. Blake Green
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c)
8. Brenton Lawrence
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. Martin Taupau
11. Frank Winterstein
12. Curtis Sironen
13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Lewis Brown
15. Jackson Hastings
16. Nate Myles
17. Addin Fonua-Blake
18. Jarrad Kennedy
19. Cameron Cullen
20. Jonathan Wright
22. Lloyd Perrett
* Players in light grey omitted.
Officials:
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Chris Butler
Sideline Officials: Rohan Best, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLManlyRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
NSW Premiership teams: Click here
Holden Cup teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
