Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Leichhardt Oval
Sunday 4 September 2:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox Sports live
Radio: ABC 666, 2CC, Mix106.3
Round 25. Nine in a row. As many wins in a row in a single season that we've seen before for the Canberra Raiders. It was first done in 1989, to win a premiership. The last time was in 1995. It wasn't the most impressive win that we've seen during the streak. In the end, it was eight tries to six, a 44-30 win to the Green Machine. Canberra let in three Sea Eagles tries in the last 11 minutes. The defence will need to be better, a lot better, from here.
More on Round 25: As I saw it
2016 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
The Canberra Raiders go to Leichhardt Oval to meet the Wests Tigers in the final round of the regular season on Sunday. Coach Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged team from last week, with Blake Austin and Junior Paulo still on the sidelines with injury. Chris Lawrence (knee) and Kyle Lovett (illness) return for the Wests Tigers. Chris Lawrence will start in the back row, with two former Raiders dropping back... Joel Edwards to the bench and Michael Chee-Kam to 18th man. Kyle Lovett returns on the bench, with Curtis Sironen dropping out of the squad.
Late changes: It won't surprise if there are late changes for the Raiders, depending on whether they are still a chance at a top two spot.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
History: Canberra has won 13 of 31 matches against the Wests Tigers. But the the Raiders won 33 of 57 matches against the Balmain Tigers and Western Suburbs Magpies before that. That's a total of 46 from 88 matches. The Raiders have won four of the last 10 matches played - but have also won three of the last four. In Round 8 this year at Canberra Stadium, Canberra had their biggest win of the year - a 60-6 victory.
Canberra has won two of four matches played against the Wests Tigers at Leichhardt. That includes the huge 30-22 comeback win last year in Round 7. Before that, the Raiders won five of 12 games against the Balmain Tigers at the inner city ground. Canberra has won nine of 21 games against all opposition at the venue. The Raiders should feel no fear of Leichhardt.
2016 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
2015 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
2015 Round 7 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
This week's "History Happens". We're in finals mode... so let's start with Week 2 of the finals in 2010 in front of a huge crowd at Canberra Stadium. It was so close for Canberra... But we won't finish on a loss. It's an oldie, but a goodie... the greatest Grand Final of all time!
2010 Finals Week 2 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
1989 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Balmain Tigers
Form: The Raiders have now won nine matches in a row, and it's the first time that has happened since the start of the season in 1995, 20 odd years ago. The other times that has happened in a single season were on the march to the 1989 and 1994 premierships. The Wests Tigers are on a WWLLW form line. They lost to the Titans and Panthers before coming from behind in the last 10 minutes to defeat the New Zealand Warriors, 36-24, in Round 25.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.65 favourites in this match; the Wests Tigers are paying $2.25. Money is coming in on the Tigers. The Wests Tigers have just a 3.5 points start.
Our tip: It is third versus ninth on the ladder. The Wests Tigers, one competition point away from the eighth placed Titans, must win if they are to make the finals. But that all depends on the Titans losing to the Cowboys on Saturday night. If the Titans win, the Wests Tigers cannot leap frog them into eighth. They will know what they're playing for by 7.30pm Saturday.
The Raiders will know what they're playing for by 9.30pm Saturday. Canberra cannot finish lower than third. But if the Storm defeat the Sharks on Saturday night, Canberra can take second place and secure a home final next week - provided they win and overcome a six point deficit in points differential. If the Storm win, and the Raiders lose, the Raiders will next meet the Sharks in Sydney. And if the Sharks win... the Raiders will play the Storm in Melbourne in Week 1 of the finals.
There's been a lot of talk about whether Ricky Stuart will rest players in this match. I can't see that happening if second place is on the line. But he may well do so if Canberra can only finish in third. I guess we can only wait and see.
Attack: The Raiders are No. 1 in attack, scoring at over 27 points a match; the Wests Tigers rank 10th in the league, at 21 points per match. Canberra has averaged 36 points a match in the last five appearances, the Wests Tigers 23. The Raiders score an average five tries per match, the Wests Tigers four. It's the same for line breaks. The Raiders rank ninth for running metres, the Wests Tigers 14th (Raiders 1527m, Wests Tigers 1471m). The Wests Tigers average more kicking metres (Raiders 402, Wests Tigers 460m).
The Raiders average 49.5 per cent possession, the Wests Tigers 48.5 per cent. Both teams average nine errors a match. The Raiders are completing at 76 per cent, the Wests Tigers at 78 per cent. Both teams concede an average of seven penalties per match.
Defence: The Raiders concede 19 points on average per match, the Wests Tigers 24. The Raiders' defence has let through quite a few points in the last two weeks, but it is still averaging less than 15 points a match in the last five games. The Wests Tigers have conceded 21 points per match in the last five. The Raiders average 23 missed tackles per match, the Wests Tigers 30.
The stats say the Raiders should win this one. It'd be some achievement, as Canberra has never won 10 in a row in a single season before. The record winning streak of 11 in a row has only happened twice before, over the 1989-90 and 1994-95 seasons. But this is a difficult match to tip, without knowing precisely what is on the line, and whether Ricky Stuart decides to rest players. The Wests Tigers will likely be more desperate, if there's a finals spot up for grabs. Add to that a hostile crowd packed into a tiny suburban ground, and it'll be a very tough game for Canberra. I'll go out on a limb an tip the Raiders by 10.
What they're saying:
Jack Wighton on a Wests Tigers team that may be playing for a top eight spot: "They're going to be on fire and they're going to turn up with their best game so we're going to have to show our best. They're going to be tough competition, so we'll just prepare our best and treat it the same as any other game."
Joe Tapine on playing at Leichhardt: "It's going to be a big crowd this week and the atmosphere is going to be different but we've been getting a lot of supporters from Canberra down to away games and hopefully we do the same this week."
Jordan Rapana: "Whether they're in there or not we know it's going to be a tough game and we've just got to aim up. We're very close to finals so we want to make sure we go in there with as much confidence as we can, and getting a win this week will do that."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Sam Williams 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliot Whitehead 13. Iosia Soliola
14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Luke Bateman 16. Clay Priest 17. Joseph Tapine
Wests Tigers
1. David Nofoaluma 2. Jordan Rankin 3. Tim Simona 4. Kevin Naiqama 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Luke Brooks 8. Aaron Woods 9. Dene Halatau 10. Sauaso Sue 11. Josh Aloiai 12. Chris Lawrence 13. Elijah Taylor
14. Kyle Lovett 15. Ava Seumanufagai 16. Tim Grant 17. Joel Edwards 18. Michael Chee-Kam
Officials:
Referees: Jared Maxwell, Chris James
Sideline Officials: Jeff Younis, Tim Roby
Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Luke Patten, Jason Robinson;
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLTigersRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2016 #FromAllAngles
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