Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Belmore Sports Ground
Monday 4 April, 7:00pm Holden Cup: 4:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox Sports live
Radio: ABC, 2CC
It was a frustrating 24-20 loss for the Canberra Raiders to the Gold Coast Titans in Round 4. Two reasons. First, the Raiders led 20-6 and managed to find a way to lose in the last 15 minutes, through a series of silly errors, sillier penalties and poor defence. Secondly, the Titans' winning "try", scored with two minutes to go, was not grounded. The referee, touch judge and bunker "processes" produced the wrong decision with two minutes remaining. But it's the first loss of the season, and things could be worse, given the Raiders have been without their first choice halves.
More on Round 4: As I saw it
2016 Round 4: Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
Unfortunately for Canberra, it gets a whole lot harder in Round 5 - against the Canterbury Bulldogs at Belmore in Monday Night Football. The game has only limited tickets still available, so the old suburban ground will be a heaving sea of blue and white. But the good, surprise news for the Canberra Raiders is that injured first choice halves Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer have been named for their return. Strike centre Joey Leilua also returns from suspension. This means Sam Williams and Brenko Lee drop back to Mounties. Elliott Whitehead moves back to the second row. Jeff Lima broke his hand in Round 4, and will be on the sidelines for six to eight weeks. Luke Bateman has been named as 18th man, reward for good performance in the NSW Premiership.
The Bulldogs have named the same team as last weekend, apart from Lloyd Perrett being added as 18th man.
Late changes: With Luke Bateman named as 18th man for the Raiders, is there a forward - who might have virtually cost the match in Round 4 - on notice? Time will tell. For the Bulldogs, hooker Michael Lichaa will be a late inclusion for Craig Garvey.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
History: Canberra has won just 26 of 64 matches against Canterbury - and have lost more matches to the Bulldogs than any other team. The Raiders have won just three of the last 10 matches between the clubs. In 2015, the Raiders lost 41-34 to an under-strength Canterbury team. The Raiders trailed 26-0 after less than 20 minutes, before drawing level, 34-34, with five minutes to go. The Dogs then scored a field goal, and a try, in the last minute of play - to take the game by seven. The Raiders have won just once in 12 games against the Dogs at Belmore - Round 18 1990, by 28-20. The teams have not played at the ground since 1998.
2015 Round 11 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
And, here's this week's history for you... what's better than the 1994 Grand Final? Not much! Sure took away any pain from the one point loss in the epic major semi final against the same team two weeks before.
1994 Grand Final Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
1994 Major semi final Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Form: The Raiders are on an official WWWDL form line in their last five appearances, while the Bulldogs have an official LWWLW record. The Bulldogs smashed the South Sydney Rabbitohs in their last match, on Good Friday, 44-12.
Betting: The Bulldogs are $1.43 favourites in the match; the Raiders are paying $2.93. The Raiders have 7.5 points start.
Our tip: The Raiders' biggest problem in 2015 was defence. It's still the biggest problem. Canberra is sixth on the competition ladder but has the fifth worst defence. The Raiders are top four in attack. The Bulldogs are similarly placed in attack - but have conceded just 10 points per match in 2016. The Raiders have conceded over 22 points per match. The way Canberra conceded easy metres against the Titans is also a real worry. They can't do that against the Dogs. There is one interesting thing in the defensive stats: Canberra has missed 86 tackles, second best behind the Eels. It's not being reflected in the points conceded, however, and saving tries when it really counts is the bigger issue.
The Raiders and Bulldogs have some very similar stats in attack - tries scored, line breaks, try assists. But Canberra's metres gained (15th), kick metres (13th), error rate (equal third), and possession share (15th at 48 per cent), are where the Raiders are making it hard for themselves. The Bulldogs are well ahead on each of those counts.
The Raiders have now had some very tough matches to start the season. Two in the heat in the first two rounds - and one which went to golden point. I think the second half fade outs have partly been because that's taken its toll, physically and mentally. But it's also because the Raiders have not had two halves to manage the tight spots in games.
It's going to be very hard for Canberra to win at Belmore - and while the return of Austin and Sezer is a huge plus, I can't see the Raiders getting up here. Bulldogs by 6. Hopefully the Green Machine proves me wrong!
What they're saying:
Paul Vaughan: We were pretty passive on the try line. It's going to be a hard training week this week. We're going to get that 'D' right, get a little bit of whack in us ... the first point of contact, it's got to be strong. Just being aggressive and wanting to hurt someone, that's the biggest thing."
Jordan Rapana on that Frank Paul Nuuausala brain snap: "As soon as we walked off the field when the final whistle blew he knew it probably wasn't the right thing to do, and it cost us in the end. But he'll bounce back from that and I don't want to focus on the negatives, we'll put that in the past and do better next week."
Injured Jeff Lima: "I was looking forward to that game, to really test our forward pack and see where we're at. They're the benchmark at the moment, the Bulldogs, they've got a lot of big boys in their team. It's not meant to be, but whoever comes in will do the job."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Shannon Boyd 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Frank Paul Nuuausala 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliot Whitehead 13. Shaun Fensom
14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Iosia Soliola 16. Paul Vaughan 17. Joseph Tapine 18. Luke Bateman
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. William Hopoate 2. Curtis Rona 3. Josh Morris 4. Chase Stanley 5. Sam Perrett 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Moses Mbye 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Craig Garvey 10. James Graham 11. Josh Jackson 12. Tony Williams 13. Greg Eastwood
14. Sam Kasiano 15. Tim Browne 16. David Klemmer 17. Adam Elliot 19. Lloyd Perrett
Officials:
Referees: Ashley Klein, Adam Gee;Sideline Officials: Jason Walsh, Tim Roby;Video Referees: Luke Patten, Bernard Sutton
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLBulldogsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2016 #FromAllAngles
Junior representatives teams and discussion: Click here
Holden Cup teams and discussion: Click here
NSW Premiership teams and discussion: Click here
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ill just keep spinning around looking for a lady wearing a raiders jersey offering coke zero and desserts
