Clearly ed has doctored the recordsreptar wrote:I don't think we voted for slowest player.bonehead wrote:Conscious bias against Purtell
The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Edrick The Entertainer
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
The great man managed a stellar 8 points in 64 games @ 0.13 points a game. 6 of those were scored in three games in a row mid 2007. No idea what happened those three weeks but it must have been a magical period.reptar wrote:I don't think we voted for slowest player.bonehead wrote:Conscious bias against Purtell
Generally though the GH is prejudice against Wingers. You can see when you look at the percentage of total votes based on position (I just assigned the most common position the player played).
- Front Row 23%
Fullback 16%
Centre 14%
Five-Eighth 12%
Second Row 12%
Lock 11%
Hooker 5%
Wing 5%
Halfback 4%
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Surely he polled points in this game!
Edrick The Entertainer
The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I remember that, it **** down and we were awful
The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I was there sitting with ge and raidersfam, purts came to the fence and shook our hands-TW- wrote:I remember that, it **** down and we were awful
Edrick The Entertainer
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Ge sits in the rain?!?!?!
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
No, we were under cover - fake mo's and all-TW- wrote:Ge sits in the rain?!?!?!
Edrick The Entertainer
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I thought as it's 15 years of the POTY now is a good time to update this thread. I know it's debatable as to how valuable this is as a measure of performance but I think it is pretty good at identifying our better players in that period and there isn't any other subjective measure of performance available with this much history.
I'll split this up over a few posts to look at it from different angles and post when I have time (recruitment type, origin, position). With Rugbyleagueproject and Wikipedia there is a lot more data available now. Also I can provide some shiny charts this time.
The Basic Numbers (there are a few inconsistencies due to voting rule changes and some missing finals):
So the big change this year is Papalii is now the highest total vote getter and first to crack 100. The other big movers are Hodgo, Rapana and Jack.
This general rule here is halves score big in wins, forwards score big in losses. Campo is still the biggest vote getter in wins and Croker gets less "least bad" points than I expected.
Not much to gather from this one except I just realised it's actually a top 13 for some reason, and Hodgo and Jack win a lot of MOM relative to the other players.
Shillo come out of this one looking the best and Hodgo as well, but if you look in the detail it's actually Campo who scores big in the wins. He has something like double the votes in wins against top 4 than anyone else. Dugan and Fensom scored most of their votes against top 4/8 in losses.
I'll split this up over a few posts to look at it from different angles and post when I have time (recruitment type, origin, position). With Rugbyleagueproject and Wikipedia there is a lot more data available now. Also I can provide some shiny charts this time.
The Basic Numbers (there are a few inconsistencies due to voting rule changes and some missing finals):
- 371 games played
6307 individual performances voted on
139 players have played since 2004
2217 points have been handed out in voting
So the big change this year is Papalii is now the highest total vote getter and first to crack 100. The other big movers are Hodgo, Rapana and Jack.
- Rank Player Total Points
1 Josh Papalii 100.5
2 Jarrod Croker 96
3 Shaun Fensom 93
4 Terry Campese 80
5 Josh Dugan 78
6 Jack Wighton 75
7 Alan Tongue 73
8 David Shillington 71
9 Josh Hodgson* 69
10 Tom Learoyd-Lahrs 62
11 Jordan Rapana 61
12 Clinton Schifcofske 52
13 Paul Vaughan 49
14 Todd Carney 45
15 Trevor Thurling 45
16 Blake Ferguson 43
17 Josh McCrone 43
18 Dane Tilse 35
19 Nick Cotric 34
20 Joey Leilua 34
This general rule here is halves score big in wins, forwards score big in losses. Campo is still the biggest vote getter in wins and Croker gets less "least bad" points than I expected.
Not much to gather from this one except I just realised it's actually a top 13 for some reason, and Hodgo and Jack win a lot of MOM relative to the other players.
Shillo come out of this one looking the best and Hodgo as well, but if you look in the detail it's actually Campo who scores big in the wins. He has something like double the votes in wins against top 4 than anyone else. Dugan and Fensom scored most of their votes against top 4/8 in losses.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Amazing work there!
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Fascinating stuff there with those stats, thanks for that Ed.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Thanks.
Here is one quick one that I thought was interesting, which is the Distribution of points. It's not quite the 80/20 rule but you can see that your best few players really do contribute the most to your performance.
Basically 7 players have earned almost a third of the votes, and 28 have earned 70% of the votes. Half of the players who have played only scored 4% of the total votes. I am not sure if this is a good or bad thing, you would need to have a benchmark against more succesful teams to know.
Here is one quick one that I thought was interesting, which is the Distribution of points. It's not quite the 80/20 rule but you can see that your best few players really do contribute the most to your performance.
Basically 7 players have earned almost a third of the votes, and 28 have earned 70% of the votes. Half of the players who have played only scored 4% of the total votes. I am not sure if this is a good or bad thing, you would need to have a benchmark against more succesful teams to know.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Nice stuff edwahu! Thoroughly enjoyed!
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I thought this one may interest some since recruitment is such a big discussion point. This is the number of players, games and votes contributed based on how the player was recruited.
You can see that we really have relied heavily on juniors, even more than I expected. They have contributed more value in terms of points than signed first graders, although this is reversed under Stuart. Also backing our own juniors has produced more than signing them from other teams Under 20s/Flegg.
Also in terms of "Moneyball" recruits from outside of first grade, looking at other leagues and Super League is more productive for us than second grade NRL players.
You can see that we really have relied heavily on juniors, even more than I expected. They have contributed more value in terms of points than signed first graders, although this is reversed under Stuart. Also backing our own juniors has produced more than signing them from other teams Under 20s/Flegg.
Also in terms of "Moneyball" recruits from outside of first grade, looking at other leagues and Super League is more productive for us than second grade NRL players.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Looks like someone has had some graph training at work.
Great stuff.
Great stuff.
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The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Just a post to say thanks for the work put into this Ed. Very interesting and I think the POTY numbers are pretty accurate too.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
No worries. I've got a couple more left, so will keep going if it's of interest for people. I don't think there is much surprising but most of them confirm what you would expect, such as todays:
Player Origin
Pretty much lines up with recruitment, Country and ACT players are our best return, Sydney and Kiwi players are not so good in terms of performance.
Player Origin
Pretty much lines up with recruitment, Country and ACT players are our best return, Sydney and Kiwi players are not so good in terms of performance.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I think this has been great, thank you!
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
No great shock this one. When you look at our top 20 all time point list, the top 7 all came through the junior ranks. Shillo at no8 is the first import.edwahu wrote:I thought this one may interest some since recruitment is such a big discussion point. This is the number of players, games and votes contributed based on how the player was recruited.
You can see that we really have relied heavily on juniors, even more than I expected. They have contributed more value in terms of points than signed first graders, although this is reversed under Stuart. Also backing our own juniors has produced more than signing them from other teams Under 20s/Flegg.
Also in terms of "Moneyball" recruits from outside of first grade, looking at other leagues and Super League is more productive for us than second grade NRL players.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Yeah, the only interesting thing is how much it's changed under Stuart v Furner. It's gone from 60% juniors under Furner to 25% under Stuart. I guess that reflects the change in priorities after Milford left, with Stuart shifting junior spots to Superleague (good result) and second grade NRL players (with poor results).
It's a shame we have had mediocre results under every coach, so it's hard to say which strategy is the best for us.
It's a shame we have had mediocre results under every coach, so it's hard to say which strategy is the best for us.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I guess the role of the guys bought up from 2nd grade are depth off the bench forwards to plug a hole
(Clay Priest mainly with 31 games)
so those sorts of guys aren't going to collect too many points
(Clay Priest mainly with 31 games)
so those sorts of guys aren't going to collect too many points
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I think the argument would be that giving a spot to junior or looking at non NRL affiliated players gives a better return considering the costs will be about the same. The hit rate for the non NRL contracted Players that have dropped off the radar like Rapana/Baptiste/Priest even back to Phil Graham is very good vs NRL contracted reserve graders, although it's improved with players like Havilli. Much harder to spot I'd think though.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
points per game would be interesting.
Shaun Fensom was the most over rated player in thegh history and I think all the stats up there show it.
In general, think voters give way to much on minutes played and total stats then they do in respect of the quality of the work.
This is changing a bit with players like cotric who may not get the best stats in the world goes about his business with real quality.
I also think hodgson and havili tend to be more effective when they are not playing 80, but probably score less when this happens for some reason.
Shaun Fensom was the most over rated player in thegh history and I think all the stats up there show it.
In general, think voters give way to much on minutes played and total stats then they do in respect of the quality of the work.
This is changing a bit with players like cotric who may not get the best stats in the world goes about his business with real quality.
I also think hodgson and havili tend to be more effective when they are not playing 80, but probably score less when this happens for some reason.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Here is the points per game (20+ game players)
I think one good measure is the averages across multiple seasons, which gives a better indication of consistency. Swap in Campese for Fergo and I think it covers our top players from the era.
- Player PPG
1 Josh Dugan 1.11
2 Josh Hodgson 0.83
3 Clinton Schifcofske 0.78
4 Jason Smith 0.74
5 Nick Cotric 0.72
6 Blake Ferguson 0.72
7 Jordan Rapana 0.67
8 Shaun Fensom 0.67
9 Todd Carney 0.63
10 Michael Dobson 0.60
11 Anthony Milford 0.60
12 Josh Papalii 0.59
13 Paul Vaughan 0.58
14 Terry Campese 0.58
15 Jack Wighton 0.57
16 Tom Learoyd-Lahrs 0.57
17 David Shillington 0.54
18 Alan Tongue 0.50
19 Ian Hindmarsh 0.46
20 Jason Croker 0.46
I think one good measure is the averages across multiple seasons, which gives a better indication of consistency. Swap in Campese for Fergo and I think it covers our top players from the era.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Here is the last post for this year. It's based on the positions but unlike previous years this time it's where the players actually played in those games.
I guess the interesting thing is that our five eighths seem to do much better than our halfbacks. The halfback list is very ugly.
I guess the interesting thing is that our five eighths seem to do much better than our halfbacks. The halfback list is very ugly.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
These are great edwahu, thanks!
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
There's some really interesting information out of that edwahu.
Halfback has definitely been a problem for us over the years. That stands out like the proverbials. As does dummy half - until Hodgo's arrival.
Also, despite the negative rhetoric that surrounds him, our current first choice fullback clearly goes OK when he's switched on.
Halfback has definitely been a problem for us over the years. That stands out like the proverbials. As does dummy half - until Hodgo's arrival.
Also, despite the negative rhetoric that surrounds him, our current first choice fullback clearly goes OK when he's switched on.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
It's also beyond me how anyone can use those stats to be negative about Shaun Fensom's contribution to this club. Dead set.
Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Yeah, while it's true he got most of his points in losses that really only started to dominate in 2013. You can see him contributing to a lot of wins including against top sides up until then.Seiffert82 wrote: ↑September 15, 2018, 6:29 pm It's also beyond me how anyone can use those stats to be negative about Shaun Fensom's contribution to this club. Dead set.
With Wighton, I guess that's highlights the limitation of the voting as a measure. It only highlights a positive contribution. One thing that's clear is up until this year he would score most of his votes at either end of the season, this year he was consistently every 2 or 3 rounds.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
I love what Shaun Fensom did in our jersey.
During some lean years seeing his name on the team sheet every week was a blessing...
Love ya Fenno..
During some lean years seeing his name on the team sheet every week was a blessing...
Love ya Fenno..
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Where's Nickman to give Fenno a big sloppy one?-PJ- wrote:I love what Shaun Fensom did in our jersey.
During some lean years seeing his name on the team sheet every week was a blessing...
Love ya Fenno..
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Agreed. Love Fenno and everything he did for the clubSeiffert82 wrote:It's also beyond me how anyone can use those stats to be negative about Shaun Fensom's contribution to this club. Dead set.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Never got the Fenno love myself. Can appreciate he always put in and was a good clubman. Just didn’t excite me.
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Re: The GH Fans' Choice - Overall best player since 2004
Yeah, I thought this year has been by far his best consistency wise. It's a real shame he screwed the pooch before the season even started. The guy needs to sort himself out.edwahu wrote: ↑September 15, 2018, 7:20 pmYeah, while it's true he got most of his points in losses that really only started to dominate in 2013. You can see him contributing to a lot of wins including against top sides up until then.Seiffert82 wrote: ↑September 15, 2018, 6:29 pm It's also beyond me how anyone can use those stats to be negative about Shaun Fensom's contribution to this club. Dead set.
With Wighton, I guess that's highlights the limitation of the voting as a measure. It only highlights a positive contribution. One thing that's clear is up until this year he would score most of his votes at either end of the season, this year he was consistently every 2 or 3 rounds.