Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

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Roger Kenworthy
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Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Roger Kenworthy »

Thought I'd break down the numbers on this a bit. That Croker thread got me thinking - over the past decade we have a bunch of players who look like world beaters against the poorer sides each season but just don't look threatening against the top sides.

I think that is the biggest challenge we face this off season - going into 2012 with a squad consistently capable of beating top 8 opponents. Even in our better seasons of recent times we haven't been able to manage this - IMO if you want to realistically win finals matches back to back you need the runs on the board against top teams during the regular season.

So I broke the last five seasons into our record against top 8 and bottom 8 sides. Discuss!

-------- Top 8 ........ Missed 8
2007: 3-9 ............ 6-6
2008: 4-7 ........... 9-4
2009: 5-8 ............ 4-7
2010: 6-6 ............ 7-5
2011: 2-11 .......... 4-7

TOTAL: 20-41 ....... 30-29 (pretty sure the stats are right :lol: )
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Gillfish »

I'd like to know only what we are like against the Top 4. Screw the rest. Usually the teams coming 6,7 and 8 are garbage as well.

2008 was a perfect example of your point though. we we're pretty awesome against everyone bar the good teams (except those dragons).
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Bag Raider »

You could pretty much up until last year assume a record of 0-2 if we played Melbourne twice each year. They are usually a top 4 if not 8 team so that doesn't help the record.

What is our record against them since they entered the comp?
And that's the end of that chapter.
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Roger Kenworthy »

Gillfish wrote:I'd like to know only what we are like against the Top 4. Screw the rest. Usually the teams coming 6,7 and 8 are garbage as well.

2008 was a perfect example of your point though. we we're pretty awesome against everyone bar the good teams (except those dragons).
The impression I got while doing those was we'd be a few notches worse against top 4 sides - but the stats may be skewed back to around the same % because of our domination of St George. As it is 6 of our wins against top 8 sides over the past 5 years have been against St G between 08 and 11 :lol:

Our record against Manly and Melbourne is particularly poor.
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by dubby »

Roger Kenworthy wrote:Thought I'd break down the numbers on this a bit. That Croker thread got me thinking - over the past decade we have a bunch of players who look like world beaters against the poorer sides each season but just don't look threatening against the top sides.

I think that is the biggest challenge we face this off season - going into 2012 with a squad consistently capable of beating top 8 opponents. Even in our better seasons of recent times we haven't been able to manage this - IMO if you want to realistically win finals matches back to back you need the runs on the board against top teams during the regular season.

So I broke the last five seasons into our record against top 8 and bottom 8 sides. Discuss!

-------- Top 8 ........ Missed 8
2007: 3-9 ............ 6-6
2008: 4-7 ........... 9-4
2009: 5-8 ............ 4-7
2010: 6-6 ............ 7-5
2011: 2-11 .......... 4-7

TOTAL: 20-41 ....... 30-29 (pretty sure the stats are right :lol: )
2007 and 2011 really blow those figures out of proportion.

2011 was a disaster. An 8 game losing streak, and our biggest winning streak was 2 games. In 2007 we had a very weak roster and a rookie coach in Neil Henry.

If you discount 2011 it brings it down to: 18-30 and 26-22 which is still quite poor.
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Raidersrawesome »

2011 we struggled to beat anyone , we lost twice against the eventual wooden spooners.

to do well in any season we have to make sure we beat those teams that are in the 8
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Roger Kenworthy »

dubby wrote:
Roger Kenworthy wrote:Thought I'd break down the numbers on this a bit. That Croker thread got me thinking - over the past decade we have a bunch of players who look like world beaters against the poorer sides each season but just don't look threatening against the top sides.

I think that is the biggest challenge we face this off season - going into 2012 with a squad consistently capable of beating top 8 opponents. Even in our better seasons of recent times we haven't been able to manage this - IMO if you want to realistically win finals matches back to back you need the runs on the board against top teams during the regular season.

So I broke the last five seasons into our record against top 8 and bottom 8 sides. Discuss!

-------- Top 8 ........ Missed 8
2007: 3-9 ............ 6-6
2008: 4-7 ........... 9-4
2009: 5-8 ............ 4-7
2010: 6-6 ............ 7-5
2011: 2-11 .......... 4-7

TOTAL: 20-41 ....... 30-29 (pretty sure the stats are right :lol: )
2007 and 2011 really blow those figures out of proportion.

2011 was a disaster. An 8 game losing streak, and our biggest winning streak was 2 games. In 2007 we had a very weak roster and a rookie coach in Neil Henry.

If you discount 2011 it brings it down to: 18-30 and 26-22 which is still quite poor.
Agree we had a decent year in 2010 against the top sides, and in 2009 when considering our record against non top 8 sides.

I think these stats do a great job of showing our lack of growth between seasons though. Every season we're relying on that record against the bottom 8 to be similar to 08 and 10 to sneak into the 8.
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Scribbler »

That away win against Manly in 2010 that sparked the revival...best ever. Sorry, derailing the thread a little, but this discussion reminded me of it.
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Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by BJ »

I have had concerns for a number of seasons that we have not been able to beat teams who have really showed up ready to play.

We have lost at home against teams who bought their A game to canberra (even lower teams like cronulla). This didn't used to be the case.

I can not remember more than a few games when I would say we have beaten a team who were right on their game that day.
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Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Stuat »

Those stats would be pretty par for a team that has only just scrapped into the 8 or come 14th or 15th over the last 4 or 5 seasons. The top 8 teams by definition are the best teams in the comp, no team outside the 8 or on the very edge of it is likely to have a good record against them
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Roger Kenworthy »

BJ wrote:I have had concerns for a number of seasons that we have not been able to beat teams who have really showed up ready to play.

We have lost at home against teams who bought their A game to canberra (even lower teams like cronulla). This didn't used to be the case.

I can not remember more than a few games when I would say we have beaten a team who were right on their game that day.
Same here. We lack to structured attack to trouble the top teams consistently IMO - instead relying on the individual brilliance of a Dugan or Campese to get us over the line. The worrying thing is that this has been a trend since 2000 - when you think of McLinden, McFadden, Finch, Carney it is always about individual brilliance and not their providing for others.

This is where I see the issue with us imitating the St George / Melbourne style of play. We have the forwards to do the job on their day but we completely lack their reliable attack - instead we're more feast or famine....
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by Green Jamey »

Our club has struggled to turn up mentally for many years now.

I have no idea why, but it started under Elliott and has continued
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Re: Our record against top 8 teams over the past five years

Post by yurithe1 »

The Phantom wrote:Our club has struggled to turn up mentally for many years now.

I have no idea why, but it started under Elliott and has continued
They cannot handle the pressure of having all eyes on them. I'll bet that if it were possible to tally up their record for FTA televised matches over the same period when they know everyone will be watching them, the number of wins would be pitiful.

I think part of the reason why they folded so dismally last season was because they suddenly had people watching them and they couldn't handle the weight of expectation that came with it.

I'm no fan of Elliott's, but I do know that when the time came to man up in a game, the Raiders would slot that golden point field goal or whatever every time. No, the rot set in sometime during Henry's tenure. They perform at the back end of the season when there's nothing to lose and can slap themselves on the back for having made the top 8 at all.
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