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Matt
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:11 am
Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:06 am
Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 10:54 am
Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 10:31 am
the bone wrote:
April 28, 2020, 10:01 am

Never said you did :lol:

If he turns out to be good, the eagles can move him for a future first.
No one is giving up major assets for Hurts now, but in 12 months time if he looks legit? Who knows


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Major assets isnt a 1st. Christ man. Those were from two entirely different posts. And i had the caveat that if he turns out to be good.
Jesus man, work on your comprehension :lol:
Legit question. In an ideal scenario what major asset do you see him being worth in 12 months.
In the next 12 months... ideal scenario being that Hurts gets a pre season, and plays at a pretty high level in it... i could see a scenario where the Jags look like trash with Minshew under centre, they've got a malcontent in Yannick Ngakoue creating problems in their locker room, they're going to lose him in FA for nothing this time next year... i could see a trade that gets Ngakoue to Philly for Hurts... again thats in an absolute ideal situation where he's been given the chance to play and plays well

If the plan is to flip him, they eagles themselves are probably thinking 2022 and beyond. But again, this is the NFL and if the eagles are right about him, and they develop him into a quality starting NFL player (so top 20 QB) then they're going to get better than 2nd for him at some point. If he sucks, they'll get nothing from him, and they'll be in the same boat as 60% of other teams who drafted a 2nd round pick who busted
So in short a major asset with be another high quality NFL starter rather than a draft pick.
My Q is, if you are looking to flip him in 12months, why do it at all? Pick a comparable 2 Rder now.

I still believe he would have been there in the 3rd Rd with Eason and Fromm. The only competition IMO is the Pats, who had 3 picks ahead of you at #87 or #91 or #101, as I believe the Bills and Colts were looking for genuine backups, not a potential/ borderline starter in Hurts, and were happy getting their guys in the 4th.

Anyway... if they do a Hill, and it comes off, it looks genius. If disaster strikes with Wentz, great. Otherwise... not so sure.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:30 am
I've seen you quote that figure of 60% failure with 2nd round picks a number of times. Where does that come from?
It's a common figure thrown around in the league when GM's etc are interviewed. Im not sure if it's rooted in some kind analysis, but it pretty well lines up with my general feel of the league. The best GM's in the league have more misses than hits.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 9:15 am
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 8:14 am
Booooo!
Philly got another Australian via the international allocation draft thing
Im trying to get work done this morning and now have to figure out who this dude is!
From Adelaide i've seen
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

the bone wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:35 am
Without bothering to go back all over the discussion, I don’t think there has actually been a huge level of criticism of the pick from Matt, NR or I. Yeah we’ve made a few jokes and have enjoying riling you up, but for the most part, our reaction was of surprise and confusion, as none of us were expecting the pick or thought it aligned with our sense of what their strategy should be. Most of our criticism has been about your justification of the pick, and how you’ve gone from saying Howie should be sacked if it doesn’t help them win this year, to posts upon posts of defending the pick despite being loathe to do so. As I wrote in an earlier post, this is classic fan behaviour, and despite your denial, you Pigman are also subject to fan bias the same as every other sports fan in the world.

In all seriousness, a few non-trolling opinions about the pick:
> as I said, I’m surprised they spent a second rounder on a back up QB. For a team that can win now, I thought they would invest in immediate help (i.e. someone that would have a much higher snap count)
> kudus to the eagles for putting such a high value on a backup QB. It certainly helped them in them in Jan-18
> we’ve heard a lot of comparisons to Taysom Hill... but it’s such a ridiculous comparison IMO. Taysom Hill was (and is, assuming Winston signs) QB3 on the Saints depth chart. The eagles are not going to let their backup QB take the hits that Hill does by playing H back, tight end, special teams etc. A much better comparison would be what the Ravens did with Jackson and Flacco, except without the intention of replacing Wentz with Hurts. Which leads me to my next point...
> anyone thinking that the plan is for Hurts to replace Wentz has no idea. Max Kellerman was arguing this point on first take this afternoon, and I know it’s your job to come up with controversial opinions, but dude shut up
> I actually feel a bit sorry for Hurts in this. Yeah he’ll be part of this self styled “QB factory”, but compare his situation to Jacob Eason, who gets to sit behind Rivers for a year and compete for a starting job in 2021


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Im not saying im above bias, but i have a proven track record with both the eagles and raiders of being able to set it aside after the heat of the moment has passed when i truly dont believe in what they are doing. No one could dispute that. I critic both my teams with fervour when i feel it's warrented.

My reaction to the pick was heated, **** i was a bit annoyed they took Raegor over Jefferson too (now i think about it, there is no question Raegor is a better fit for what we need), i dont ever say im not an irrational fan in the heat of the moment, my contention is what i am good at is taking a step back after the events and looking at things with my emotions removed. Which is what i've done here. So you can doubt that all you like, my track record on that, speaks for itself.

Re your points

1. No issues, this is ultimately why everyone is upset and why i was so heated. That's the critic against the pick, that it doesnt have immediate returns... But again, when you step back and look at the totality of what the eagles have done in the draft, there can be no doubt they've addressed the need to provide Wentz with more weapons. If they all flame out, they all flame out... but then id argue if they couldnt get it right with taking 3 players, why would we assume a 4th would have been any different?
2. The eagles also have Nate Sudfield, there is no reason why they wouldnt use Hurts some of the same ways as Hill unless they think he's not capable of it. I think his college tape showed he'd well and truly capable. The Eagles went into last year with only 2QB's - Wentz and Sudfield, they brought in McCown went Sudfield broke his hand, so they're obviously comfortable with Sudfield being the back up.
3. If you're watching First Take for earnest, honest sports debate, i'd question your sanity. First Take is for watching Stephen A perform an incredibly great shtick at a very high level, and that's it :lol:
4. I dont really feel for Hurts, he's landed in a good spot with great coaching which will allow him to develop himself without any pressure and he can focus on aspects of his game which are holding him back, and if he's good, he'll get his chance to start in the NFL somewhere.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:21 pm
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw
"I was a massive fan of the Maroons. Whenever it was State of Origin time I was absolutely in awe of them."
**** this guy, cut him now
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
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WHERE UserName = 'Aknalkfgnaa' OR 'Yeah Raiders' OR 'Billy B'
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GO;

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:32 pm
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:21 pm
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw
"I was a massive fan of the Maroons. Whenever it was State of Origin time I was absolutely in awe of them."
**** this guy, cut him now
:roflmao
yep, hate him even more now

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:25 pm
the bone wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:35 am
Without bothering to go back all over the discussion, I don’t think there has actually been a huge level of criticism of the pick from Matt, NR or I. Yeah we’ve made a few jokes and have enjoying riling you up, but for the most part, our reaction was of surprise and confusion, as none of us were expecting the pick or thought it aligned with our sense of what their strategy should be. Most of our criticism has been about your justification of the pick, and how you’ve gone from saying Howie should be sacked if it doesn’t help them win this year, to posts upon posts of defending the pick despite being loathe to do so. As I wrote in an earlier post, this is classic fan behaviour, and despite your denial, you Pigman are also subject to fan bias the same as every other sports fan in the world.

In all seriousness, a few non-trolling opinions about the pick:
> as I said, I’m surprised they spent a second rounder on a back up QB. For a team that can win now, I thought they would invest in immediate help (i.e. someone that would have a much higher snap count)
> kudus to the eagles for putting such a high value on a backup QB. It certainly helped them in them in Jan-18
> we’ve heard a lot of comparisons to Taysom Hill... but it’s such a ridiculous comparison IMO. Taysom Hill was (and is, assuming Winston signs) QB3 on the Saints depth chart. The eagles are not going to let their backup QB take the hits that Hill does by playing H back, tight end, special teams etc. A much better comparison would be what the Ravens did with Jackson and Flacco, except without the intention of replacing Wentz with Hurts. Which leads me to my next point...
> anyone thinking that the plan is for Hurts to replace Wentz has no idea. Max Kellerman was arguing this point on first take this afternoon, and I know it’s your job to come up with controversial opinions, but dude shut up
> I actually feel a bit sorry for Hurts in this. Yeah he’ll be part of this self styled “QB factory”, but compare his situation to Jacob Eason, who gets to sit behind Rivers for a year and compete for a starting job in 2021


Sent from my iPhone using The Greenhouse
Im not saying im above bias, but i have a proven track record with both the eagles and raiders of being able to set it aside after the heat of the moment has passed when i truly dont believe in what they are doing. No one could dispute that. I critic both my teams with fervour when i feel it's warrented.

My reaction to the pick was heated, **** i was a bit annoyed they took Raegor over Jefferson too (now i think about it, there is no question Raegor is a better fit for what we need), i dont ever say im not an irrational fan in the heat of the moment, my contention is what i am good at is taking a step back after the events and looking at things with my emotions removed. Which is what i've done here. So you can doubt that all you like, my track record on that, speaks for itself.

Re your points

1. No issues, this is ultimately why everyone is upset and why i was so heated. That's the critic against the pick, that it doesnt have immediate returns... But again, when you step back and look at the totality of what the eagles have done in the draft, there can be no doubt they've addressed the need to provide Wentz with more weapons. If they all flame out, they all flame out... but then id argue if they couldnt get it right with taking 3 players, why would we assume a 4th would have been any different?
2. The eagles also have Nate Sudfield, there is no reason why they wouldnt use Hurts some of the same ways as Hill unless they think he's not capable of it. I think his college tape showed he'd well and truly capable. The Eagles went into last year with only 2QB's - Wentz and Sudfield, they brought in McCown went Sudfield broke his hand, so they're obviously comfortable with Sudfield being the back up.
3. If you're watching First Take for earnest, honest sports debate, i'd question your sanity. First Take is for watching Stephen A perform an incredibly great shtick at a very high level, and that's it :lol:
4. I dont really feel for Hurts, he's landed in a good spot with great coaching which will allow him to develop himself without any pressure and he can focus on aspects of his game which are holding him back, and if he's good, he'll get his chance to start in the NFL somewhere.
Even taking a step back and looking at things with emotions removed, you, as well as everyone else, still have bias in the way you view things which ultimately effect your opinions. Given the recent success of the Eagles, you lean toward giving them the benefit of the doubt, and we've seen that in you rationalizing their decision despite holding a completely opposite view prior to, and at the time of, the pick. We'll have to get GE in here to give us another seminar on unconscious bias.
Responses to your responses:
1. The difference is the hit rate is better the higher the pick.
2. If they're comfortable with Nate Sudfield is a backup, than the pick makes even less sense.
3. I love first take, I find it very entertaining. Working from home, put on first take 2-4pm, afternoon flys by
4. As a professional athlete, he wants to be out there playing ASAP, not standing on the sideline getting ready for his 5-10 gadget plays. If you asked him prior to the draft where his preferred destination is, it would not be a team that just signed their franchise QB to a long term contract.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:14 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:30 am
I've seen you quote that figure of 60% failure with 2nd round picks a number of times. Where does that come from?
It's a common figure thrown around in the league when GM's etc are interviewed. Im not sure if it's rooted in some kind analysis, but it pretty well lines up with my general feel of the league. The best GM's in the league have more misses than hits.
I think its fair to say a successful draft pick is somebody who somebody who becomes a regular NFL starter or at least a full time roster position. I would be shocked if only 40% of 2nd round picks achieved that status
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:32 pm
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:21 pm
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw
"I was a massive fan of the Maroons. Whenever it was State of Origin time I was absolutely in awe of them."
**** this guy, cut him now
Do you actually root for the Blues? I thought you tapped out of origin a while back

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:25 pm
4. I dont really feel for Hurts, he's landed in a good spot with great coaching which will allow him to develop himself without any pressure and he can focus on aspects of his game which are holding him back, and if he's good, he'll get his chance to start in the NFL somewhere.
On this comment. Sure he's landed in a spot where he can develop but his window of opportunity is very restricted. It will depend on Wentz copping a serious injury or playing junk. I imagine both scenarios are very unpalatable for you as an Eagles man. Hurts won't be complaining though as he would have been stoked to get drafted anywhere. To go in the 2nd round would have surely exceeded his expectations going in.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:34 pm
Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:32 pm
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:21 pm
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw
"I was a massive fan of the Maroons. Whenever it was State of Origin time I was absolutely in awe of them."
**** this guy, cut him now
:roflmao
yep, hate him even more now
Just read the article. He's sure got the build for it. Nearly 6'7" and 280lb. That's old school prototype DE.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

@Northern Raider,
@the bone,
@Botman,

I think everyone agrees, on paper, this looks a terrible pick. All the reasons have been posted - Wentz, team needs, 2nd Rd success rate, etc.

Now, Piggy is allowed to say that the Pheagles have got it right in the recent past, and while it looks awful, he is willing to give the BOTD. I think that is probably fair too, they certainly have done better than anyone thought they would in recent times.

As for the success of this pick...
1. Flipping him in 12 months. GUTSY GUTSY call. Very hard to turn this guy into a 1st pick. However, as trade capital more likely.
2. Gadget player - possible, but is that what Hurts wants to be? Surely he is a passer who can move, unlike Hill who seems to be a mover who can throw?
3. Wentz goes down. This is terrible for the Eagles, and yet, might boost #1.

What goes around comes around, and we wont know if its good or bad til the end of this coming season.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 1:15 pm
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:34 pm
Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:32 pm
Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:21 pm
read this:
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/a-gree ... iLfu4_qMsw
"I was a massive fan of the Maroons. Whenever it was State of Origin time I was absolutely in awe of them."
**** this guy, cut him now
:roflmao
yep, hate him even more now
Just read the article. He's sure got the build for it. Nearly 6'7" and 280lb. That's old school prototype DE.
Massive unit! Will make Manilla nearly look small

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the bone
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 1:16 pm
@Northern Raider,
@the bone,
@Botman,

I think everyone agrees, on paper, this looks a terrible pick. All the reasons have been posted - Wentz, team needs, 2nd Rd success rate, etc.

Now, Piggy is allowed to say that the Pheagles have got it right in the recent past, and while it looks awful, he is willing to give the BOTD. I think that is probably fair too, they certainly have done better than anyone thought they would in recent times.

As for the success of this pick...
1. Flipping him in 12 months. GUTSY GUTSY call. Very hard to turn this guy into a 1st pick. However, as trade capital more likely.
2. Gadget player - possible, but is that what Hurts wants to be? Surely he is a passer who can move, unlike Hill who seems to be a mover who can throw?
3. Wentz goes down. This is terrible for the Eagles, and yet, might boost #1.

What goes around comes around, and we wont know if its good or bad til the end of this coming season.
Well summarised Matt. At this point, we've debated the pick ad nauseam.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Matt wrote:
April 28, 2020, 1:16 pm
@Northern Raider,
@the bone,
@Botman,

I think everyone agrees, on paper, this looks a terrible pick. All the reasons have been posted - Wentz, team needs, 2nd Rd success rate, etc.

Now, Piggy is allowed to say that the Pheagles have got it right in the recent past, and while it looks awful, he is willing to give the BOTD. I think that is probably fair too, they certainly have done better than anyone thought they would in recent times.

As for the success of this pick...
1. Flipping him in 12 months. GUTSY GUTSY call. Very hard to turn this guy into a 1st pick. However, as trade capital more likely.
2. Gadget player - possible, but is that what Hurts wants to be? Surely he is a passer who can move, unlike Hill who seems to be a mover who can throw?
3. Wentz goes down. This is terrible for the Eagles, and yet, might boost #1.

What goes around comes around, and we wont know if its good or bad til the end of this coming season.
1. Won't happen.
2. Gadget player sure. Taysom Hill comparison fair enough as they would like to emulate that. But a 2nd round pick? Hill was a UDFA and claimed off waivers by Saints.
3. Would give point 1 a distantly remote chance of happening.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:53 pm
Botman wrote:
April 28, 2020, 12:14 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 11:30 am
I've seen you quote that figure of 60% failure with 2nd round picks a number of times. Where does that come from?
It's a common figure thrown around in the league when GM's etc are interviewed. Im not sure if it's rooted in some kind analysis, but it pretty well lines up with my general feel of the league. The best GM's in the league have more misses than hits.
I think its fair to say a successful draft pick is somebody who somebody who becomes a regular NFL starter or at least a full time roster position. I would be shocked if only 40% of 2nd round picks achieved that status
Pro Football reference has some stuff on this which is quite cool... it has an DrAV, which is a stat they've come up with which gives a figure on average accumulation of value for the team that drafted that player, it's quite a complex little system but in all my research on it, that's been the best i've found... they also have a stat that shows the number of years that player was the primary starter at his position which is a good base measurement for success.

You can read more about their AV methods here:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... x37a8.html

Just looking at 2013-14-15-16... i pick these years because by now we should really know who is who in those zoo's yeah? Like someone might fall of a cliff, or be a very late bloomer but at this point mostly we can assume they are what they are

I used a 50% career metric for the primary starter, so be considered successful i say as a 2nd round pick you should be the primary starter for more than 50% of your seasons, so in 2013 and 2014 above 3, in 2015 above 2, in 2016 above 1.
I've used a DrAv value of 20. I think it's fair to say if you've delivered a metric of 20/100 to the team that drafted you, they probably feel like they didnt get get value from the pick.

2013 (7 years in the league)
15/32 were not primary starter for their team for more than 3 years in 6... 46% of the class
20/32 have an DrAV value of 20 or less... 62.5% of the class

2014 (6 years in the league)
18/32 were not primary starter for their team for more than 3 years in 6... 56% of the class
22/32 have an DrAV value of 20 or less... 68.75% of the class

2015 (5 years in the league)
18/32 were not the primary starter for their team for more than 2 years in 5... 56% of the class
20/32 have an DrAV value of 20 or less... 62.5% of the class

2016
12/32 were not the primary starter for their team for more than 2 years in 5... 37.5% of the class
21/32 have an DrAV value of 20 or less... 65.6% of the class


... make of that what you will on the success rates of second round picks
(or pick apart the methodology, as a data guy i know it's far from perfect because it dont think take into account for someone like Ronald Darby who the eagles traded a 3rd and Jordan Matthews to obtain him, but those are rare cases i guess)

But certain every analytics person i've heard speak of it, says high draft picks are over valued, and the analytics community trends towards the idea that it's not about having high picks, it's about having a high volume of picks... more tickets in the lottery as they say... of course you still need strong scouting to get the most out of picks... Sashi Brown had a ton of picks and got nothing from any of them really. So that's sort of what makes it tough

Anecdotally, 60% failure rate feels about right, good teams will hit higher, bad teams lower (that in itself contributes to the end product of the player) and the average wash seems to be right in that zone.. though i concede thats a really crude way of doing things... i enjoyed the task though, it's pretty interesting to think about

(counter argument, and feeds into my Lamb criticism, if 2nd round picks arent actually THAT valuable, just give the **** up to get Lamb ****)
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Seems a reasonable analysis, although I only kinda followed it. Comes down to relative value of the picks. Depending on position you expect 1st and high 2nd rounders to develop into long term starters. I guess it becomes a bit more foggy what classifies as a starter in the modern game with an increase in rotations and situational plays.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Yeah it's just really tough to analysis the ROI on draft picks. Unless they're out of the world good or out of the world bad.

You know Jamarcus Russell was a bad pick and you know Tom Brady was a great pick... is that two down thumping LB, picked in the 2nd round, who plays base and is really good in that role but comes out for nickle, so only plays 30-40% of the snaps a good pick?
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Maybe an alternative way to evaluate is the draft round of all current starters. Hopefully some other gimp as collated that info. :)
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 28, 2020, 4:09 pm
Maybe an alternative way to evaluate is the draft round of all current starters. Hopefully some other gimp as collated that info. :)
There is a bit of that, i guess i push back against it because i see too many teams persisting with bad players drafted highly because of the investment. 1st round picks get a lot more rope than the 7th round pick. I mean Mitch Trubisky is a starter right now... I dont think he's better than Trevor Siemian. But old Trevy gets about 3 quarters of bad play before he's pulled, Trubisky gets 3 years because the investment was so substantial, the teams, particularly bad ones feel obligated to persevere with the player given the capital used to obtain them. Especially when they are so count so little against the cap.

Most first rounders will get a good 2-3 years before a team gives up on them even if they're objectively bad, where as a 5th rounder could get cut the next year. Garrett Bolles is about to suit up in his 3rd NFL season as a LT. And he **** sucks :lol:

The Broncos know he sucks, but they'll give him this year to prove it again, if he was anything but a first round pick, he'd be benched at best and more than likely had been cut 12 months ago.

But like i said, it's tough to analysis and that's another way of doing it for sure. Not a way i'd necessarily subscribe to for the reasons i mentioned above, but hell not everyone's going to subscribe to my way either. (Though they should as obviously Botman is right, and you **** know it)
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

I kind of followed the value stuff. Youre right about the LB playing in base as s potential exception though.

I love that the US actively pursues that kind of info too.

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Re: NFL Thread

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https://www.foxsports.com.au/nfl/had-en ... HvH4CzWqwQ

ARod vs Love vs Packers Coaching/ Admin staff

Ill put it out there, as horrible as it would be... ARod to the Pats...

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Re: NFL Thread

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Re: NFL Thread

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/why- ... -and-more/

Pretty much what Piggy has been saying

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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote:
April 29, 2020, 3:19 pm
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/why- ... -and-more/

Pretty much what Piggy has been saying
Article justifies having Hurts on the roster. Nobody questions that he has value to the team. People question why they used their 2nd round pick to satisfy those criteria.

Nobody is bagging the Bills for taking Fromm in the 6th and I doubt anybody would bag the Pheagles if they used a 5th or maybe even a 4th rounder on Hurts.
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Re: NFL Thread

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I can’t find it now but I’m sure I saw somewhere that Rapaport had reported earlier in the draft that multiple teams had interest in Hurts in the back of round 2.

I don’t think there was any chance what so ever he’d have been there for the eagles in the 3rd, let alone in the 4th or 5th.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
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Re: NFL Thread

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There is a Mack attack in the windy city. LeDarius, Khalil's little bro joined as an UDFA

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Botman wrote:
April 29, 2020, 8:21 pm
I can’t find it now but I’m sure I saw somewhere that Rapaport had reported earlier in the draft that multiple teams had interest in Hurts in the back of round 2.

I don’t think there was any chance what so ever he’d have been there for the eagles in the 3rd, let alone in the 4th or 5th.
Was he told this before or after the draft?
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote:
April 30, 2020, 9:17 am
Botman wrote:
April 29, 2020, 8:21 pm
I can’t find it now but I’m sure I saw somewhere that Rapaport had reported earlier in the draft that multiple teams had interest in Hurts in the back of round 2.

I don’t think there was any chance what so ever he’d have been there for the eagles in the 3rd, let alone in the 4th or 5th.
Was he told this before or after the draft?
I believe it was a pre-day 2 NFL Network hit where he sort of gives some names to watch... So this was his sourcing on the action to come on day 2. One of the philly beat writers who said it in reaction to the pick in a video hit i watched. I didnt see the report myself.

Obviously one of the teams was Philly, but pre draft he was linked to NE, PIT and BAL... so you only really need one other to get "multiple" teams, and the Eagles had 50 picks between their 2nd and 3rd, and he was according to Howie Roseman "by far" the highest graded player on their board at 53... could the eagles have got him at 103? I don't think so, and certain that he wasn't lasting until round 4 or 5. The idea that Hurts is in the same tier as Eason and Fromm is absolutely laughable imo. His resume and his tape is so far above theirs.

Anyways it is what it is, he's at Philly now and im pretty excited to see what happens with him in the coming years. At the very least i've got a reason to really dial into the preseason games now with him and Mailata.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
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WHERE UserName = 'Aknalkfgnaa' OR 'Yeah Raiders' OR 'Billy B'
EXEC RAND(good_grief; cheak_notes; uh82cit;)

GO;

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Re: NFL Thread

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Botman wrote:
April 30, 2020, 12:23 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
April 30, 2020, 9:17 am
Botman wrote:
April 29, 2020, 8:21 pm
I can’t find it now but I’m sure I saw somewhere that Rapaport had reported earlier in the draft that multiple teams had interest in Hurts in the back of round 2.

I don’t think there was any chance what so ever he’d have been there for the eagles in the 3rd, let alone in the 4th or 5th.
Was he told this before or after the draft?
I believe it was a pre-day 2 NFL Network hit where he sort of gives some names to watch... So this was his sourcing on the action to come on day 2. One of the philly beat writers who said it in reaction to the pick in a video hit i watched. I didnt see the report myself.

Obviously one of the teams was Philly, but pre draft he was linked to NE, PIT and BAL... so you only really need one other to get "multiple" teams, and the Eagles had 50 picks between their 2nd and 3rd, and he was according to Howie Roseman "by far" the highest graded player on their board at 53... could the eagles have got him at 103? I don't think so, and certain that he wasn't lasting until round 4 or 5. The idea that Hurts is in the same tier as Eason and Fromm is absolutely laughable imo. His resume and his tape is so far above theirs.

Anyways it is what it is, he's at Philly now and im pretty excited to see what happens with him in the coming years. At the very least i've got a reason to really dial into the preseason games now with him and Mailata.
Hmmm. If teams came out after the draft then maybe OK. I can't believe for one second that before the draft teams would reveal to a journalist which player they had targeted for a late 2nd round pick.

Anyway it's total speculation about what may have happened if something that did happen didn't happen. He could have been taken next pick or slipped to the 4th or 5th round behind Eason who was next QB taken.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Northern Raider wrote:
April 30, 2020, 12:47 pm
Botman wrote:
April 30, 2020, 12:23 pm
Northern Raider wrote:
April 30, 2020, 9:17 am
Botman wrote:
April 29, 2020, 8:21 pm
I can’t find it now but I’m sure I saw somewhere that Rapaport had reported earlier in the draft that multiple teams had interest in Hurts in the back of round 2.

I don’t think there was any chance what so ever he’d have been there for the eagles in the 3rd, let alone in the 4th or 5th.
Was he told this before or after the draft?
I believe it was a pre-day 2 NFL Network hit where he sort of gives some names to watch... So this was his sourcing on the action to come on day 2. One of the philly beat writers who said it in reaction to the pick in a video hit i watched. I didnt see the report myself.

Obviously one of the teams was Philly, but pre draft he was linked to NE, PIT and BAL... so you only really need one other to get "multiple" teams, and the Eagles had 50 picks between their 2nd and 3rd, and he was according to Howie Roseman "by far" the highest graded player on their board at 53... could the eagles have got him at 103? I don't think so, and certain that he wasn't lasting until round 4 or 5. The idea that Hurts is in the same tier as Eason and Fromm is absolutely laughable imo. His resume and his tape is so far above theirs.

Anyways it is what it is, he's at Philly now and im pretty excited to see what happens with him in the coming years. At the very least i've got a reason to really dial into the preseason games now with him and Mailata.
Hmmm. If teams came out after the draft then maybe OK. I can't believe for one second that before the draft teams would reveal to a journalist which player they had targeted for a late 2nd round pick.

Anyway it's total speculation about what may have happened if something that did happen didn't happen. He could have been taken next pick or slipped to the 4th or 5th round behind Eason who was next QB taken.
The only team that could/ would have IMO was the Pats, and in the end they didnt take a QB at all.

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Re: NFL Thread

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Now the dust has settled, here's my summary/opinion on Dophins draft. I'll give my thoughts broken inton each of the 3 days rather than pick by pick.

Day 1
Going in with 3 picks and plenty of talk about them making moves. They did make moves but not the ones expected. I'm quite comfortable with taking Tua at 5 and even happier they didn't waste draft capital by trading up as many suggested. They played the perfect hand of poker here. The situation with Tua is fairly straight forward. He's one of the most talented natural QBs to come out of the draft in years but has serious durability questions. If he stays healthy we have our first true franchsie QB since Marino, if not then he's yet another draft bust / false dawn. We're used to those. :(

OT Austin Jackson at 18 was a good pick although he may have still been there at 26. Don't know for sure and if he's the one they want then best not to take the risk. He's a raw but talented player. Many felt he should have stayed in school another year as he could have developed into a top 10 pick. Hope thats true as he can now develop into an elite LT within the Phins system.

Pick 26 turned out to be one of the biggest talking points of the draft. Traded back with Packers who took QB Jordan Love. Phins ended up taking CB Noah Igbinoghene (I'm getting better at spelling it) which was a bit of a surprise for me as I felt they needed more help at Safety and Xavier McKinney was still on the board (who I was half expecting to see us take at 18). Noah was projected as a 2nd round and some had him 1st so not too big a reach. Questions are more around the need given we already have 2 of the highest paid CBs in the game. Noah is another raw but gifted player so might take a season or two before he's a legit 1st team CB so he's a futures pick. I think its more that they want 3 high class CBs on the roster as Brian Flores is ex-Pats defensive coach and their philosophy is very much built on a strong pass coverage.

All up I was very comfortable with Day 1 without being overly excited. Give it a firm B for now but in time it could end up being anywhere from A+ down to a D. A lot hangs on Tua staying healthy.

Day 2
I'm on record saying I expected Dolphins to use their mountain of Day 3 picks to be big movers on Day 2. I couldn't have been more wrong. Seemed a mutlitode of opportunities were there to move up and grab a sliding player in a high need position. Instead they stayed put on all 3 picks. First up was G/T Robert Hunt at pick 7 in the 2nd. Versatile guy who played a lot at both positions in college but physical stuture is more Guard than Tackle at NFL level. Good trench filling pick although based on our current depth chart I'd prefer a Tackle who can play Guard rather than the other way round. Still a solid choice.

Next up was out late 2nd round pick in DT Raekwon Davis. We needed a 3rd interior D-lineman and he fits the bill, although may have been a bit of a reach here. The worst part about the pick was seeing JK Dobbins come off the board 1 spot earlier. Speculation the Phins wanted him and got sniped by the Ravens. If that's true then I think this was their first real fail of the draft. Players they wanted had fallen to them earlier and they may have become complacent in that regard. Davis could well have been their 3rd round target and getting blindsided on Dobbins the time pressure may have seen them pulled the trigger on Davis earlier than expected. Really had to make the move earlier to avoid that.

Early 3rd they took S Brandon Jones. He's a versatile tackling machine but not so much a cover guy. Intriguing story given he was prevented from working out at combine due injury. Instead requested all 32 teams send him game tape and he provided a thorough analysis of each. Little doubt the attitude alone would have impressed people. He fills a need (replacing namesake Reshad Jones) but another that appeared to be a reach. Ripple effect from missing Dobbin?

Day 2 I have to say was disappointing. I like the guys they got and all fill need positions but can't help but think they missed their opportunity to grab this draft by the throat. I went into the day with anticipation and came away a bit nonplussed. Will therefore give it a C.

Day 3
After paying the price for hubris on Day 2 they started with a bang on Day 3. Packaged their 2 late 4ths (from GB in day 1 and a comp pick) to move up to no5 and grabbed G Solomon Kindley. Tough, nasty blocker well known for pancaking opponents. Better in run than pass but another one to bolster the OL.

Next up the 5th round where Phins had picks 8 and 9. Their big move (and best?) was sending pick 8 to 49ers for RB Matt Breida. Instant redemption for failing to address RB on day 2 and he's an excellent complement to Jordan Howard in the back field. Well worth a 5th round pick esecially given 49ers were after much better compensation pre-draft.

With the next pick they grabbed DE Jason Strowbridge who is a good pass rushing end to help boost one of the worst pass rushing units in the NFL. Not bad value in the 5th as well.

Now the moves keep coming trading up in the 5th with the Eagles and got DE Curtis Weaver. This guys is a sack master and was projected to go much higher. Great use of the extra draft picks to make a positive move and land a guy who should be able to contribute early. Big hand clap for this one.

On to the 6th round and the only real head scratcher of the day taking LS Blake Ferguson (no, not that Blake Ferguson). Drafting a LS is a bit like taking a kicker or punter. Unless they're exceptional you normally sign them as UDFAs. If they didn't want him to hit the open market there then why not use one of your 7th rounders? I guess its a case of if you like him then make sure you get him.

7th round and we have the fun pick with QB/RB/WR Malcolm Perry from Navy. I think everybody wants a Taysom Hill now so expect he will be utilised like that. Worth the flyer in the 7th.

To finish they offloaded pick 251 (7th round comp) for a 6th rounder next year. Nice way to close out the draft by boosting value next year. It was an excellent Day 3 to counter the uninspiring Day 2 and I'm happy to give it an A. That averages out to a B grade overall but as mentioned, a lot hangs on the level of Tua's success.
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Re: NFL Thread

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I think the Dolphins would do VERY well to reach out to Jason Peters and bring him in for a year... he can start the season at LT, do a fine job there and help mentor Jackson, and then towards the back end of the year (and at this stage, peters playing 16 games seems a stretch) Jackson gets in and they see a little of him and Peters can help coach him up on the run.

The Eagles had Dillard living off his hip last year and i think we'll see this year how invaluable that.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Strowbridge really impressed at the Seniorbowl. Cowboys media really liked him.

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Re: NFL Thread

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I thought the Dolphins had a great draft. They absolutely nailed the Tua situation, played it perfectly. Got him without moving.
I like Noah Iggy, and think between him and the corners, as well as Wilkins from last year, McMillian who im still high on and think will develop, especially with better talent around him, and the new Raekwon in the 3rd who i know a bit about and quite like.
I think they're going to have a legit top 10-15 defence this year.

Im surprised they didnt address RB or WR in this draft, but RB in particular is deep next year and there is loads of solid veteran guys you can grab... they should at least make a phone call to Detroit to find out what Kerryon Johnson would cost, given they just got Swift.

I dont think we'll see it, i think this will be a TRUE redshirt year for Tua, but man i am pumped to see him at the next level and id love to see if with a legit gunslinger franchise QB under centre if that wouldnt unlock some consistency in Devante Parker, because when he's on he's unbelievable and if Tua can get consistent production from him perhaps they've already got a #1 WR
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
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WHERE UserName = 'Aknalkfgnaa' OR 'Yeah Raiders' OR 'Billy B'
EXEC RAND(good_grief; cheak_notes; uh82cit;)

GO;

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