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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Picking somebody to make a trade is very different to predicting the trade. I can't recall anybody tipping Steelers to take Bush at 10. The market has it odds on for a precise trade and selection. That's massive unders.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Here's my opinion on the Dolphins position and options in regards to drafting a QB.

Most aggressive move would be to trade up to no1 and get Burrow. If your primary goal of the draft is to get your franchise QB then this is the best play. Burrow is very hard to fault. While he doesn't have an elite arm, brilliant feet etc he's quite simply a football player. His accuracy in all situations is off the charts. If he can get a clean throw off he won't miss and puts the ball exactly where it needs to be. This coupled with good decision making and the proof is in his results of 2019.

Whats the price to pay? One angle quite compelling was this. Would you trade no5 pick and Laremy Tunsil (if he was on the books). For most it would be a resounding 'Yes'. The trade for Tunsil netted the Phins 2 x 1st and 1 x 2nd round picks. So that total package would send 3 x 1st and 1 x 2nd round picks to the Bengals in exchange for the no1 slot. That offer would be hard to pass up. That said they would pobably start with 2 x 1st and 1 x 2nd which would seem resonable for both sides.

That aside it comes back to Tua or Herbert. To be honest I'm not big on either as our future franchise guy. Tua is a massive injury concern. Something like 4 lower body surgeries in 2 years. If he's struggling at college level it's hard to see his durability measure up in the NFL. For mine that concern trumps his talent, which is beyond question.

Herbert has protoypical size, mobility, pocket presence and one of the best natural arms we've seen in a long time. Not really worried by people saying he's introverted and not a vocal leader. My impression is that he's simply a laid back character. He's makes plays and leads by example. My biggest concern is his lack of finesse and inconsistent accuracy. While these issues are coachable you cannot assume they will be fixed. On that score I see him as a genuine risk where Burrow isn't.

With all that in mind I'm OK for them to take either Tua or Herbert at no5. The upside for both is huge. The risk of them being a bust is mitigated somewhat as we still have 2 more 1st round picks. If you come out of the draft with 1 miss and 2 hits on from day one then you've done well. If you trade up and lose some of that other collateral then the impact of your QB being a bust is much greater as it will have cost multiple picks.

So in summary my opinion is trade up from Burrow, yes. Trade up for Tua or Herbert, big no. Stay put and draft Tua or Herbert, yes. Stay put and draft Wirfs, Simmon or whoever? Dunno, interesting thought. That would move would reverberate right through the remainder of the 1st round.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote: April 9, 2020, 1:55 pm Here's my opinion on the Dolphins position and options in regards to drafting a QB.

Most aggressive move would be to trade up to no1 and get Burrow. If your primary goal of the draft is to get your franchise QB then this is the best play. Burrow is very hard to fault. While he doesn't have an elite arm, brilliant feet etc he's quite simply a football player. His accuracy in all situations is off the charts. If he can get a clean throw off he won't miss and puts the ball exactly where it needs to be. This coupled with good decision making and the proof is in his results of 2019.

Whats the price to pay? One angle quite compelling was this. Would you trade no5 pick and Laremy Tunsil (if he was on the books). For most it would be a resounding 'Yes'. The trade for Tunsil netted the Phins 2 x 1st and 1 x 2nd round picks. So that total package would send 3 x 1st and 1 x 2nd round picks to the Bengals in exchange for the no1 slot. That offer would be hard to pass up. That said they would pobably start with 2 x 1st and 1 x 2nd which would seem resonable for both sides.

That aside it comes back to Tua or Herbert. To be honest I'm not big on either as our future franchise guy. Tua is a massive injury concern. Something like 4 lower body surgeries in 2 years. If he's struggling at college level it's hard to see his durability measure up in the NFL. For mine that concern trumps his talent, which is beyond question.

Herbert has protoypical size, mobility, pocket presence and one of the best natural arms we've seen in a long time. Not really worried by people saying he's introverted and not a vocal leader. My impression is that he's simply a laid back character. He's makes plays and leads by example. My biggest concern is his lack of finesse and inconsistent accuracy. While these issues are coachable you cannot assume they will be fixed. On that score I see him as a genuine risk where Burrow isn't.

With all that in mind I'm OK for them to take either Tua or Herbert at no5. The upside for both is huge. The risk of them being a bust is mitigated somewhat as we still have 2 more 1st round picks. If you come out of the draft with 1 miss and 2 hits on from day one then you've done well. If you trade up and lose some of that other collateral then the impact of your QB being a bust is much greater as it will have cost multiple picks.

So in summary my opinion is trade up from Burrow, yes. Trade up for Tua or Herbert, big no. Stay put and draft Tua or Herbert, yes. Stay put and draft Wirfs, Simmon or whoever? Dunno, interesting thought. That would move would reverberate right through the remainder of the 1st round.
Are you a Phins tragic? Oh dear.

I can totally see them packaging 5 and 26 + 2nd Rd and going up.

I can also actually see them ducking the QB this yr, which really would throw a spanner in the 2021 draft, and stacking their roster elsewhere so that 2022 its the only missing piece.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Have you guys seen the new Falcons uniforms?
That have a home and away colour rush strip as well as a home and away, that just looks like they switched the tops and bottoms of the colour rush ones.
I think they are pretty cool actually, however, their colour scheme is really easy to work with.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Apparently there is an issue where people believe Cowboys have an advantage on draft day, because Jerry and Stephen can be under the same roof.... ummm... really?!?!?
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Re: NFL Thread

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Everybody has them locked in to drafting a QB at no5 but I think as the draft gets closer more will realise that no fait accompli. As pointed out there are genuine question marks on both candidates there. Who's to say the Phins heirarchy haven't come to the conclusion that neither is worth a pick in that spot. Chargers in a similar position may also feel the same. They have Taylor as a bridge so may prefer Eason, Hurts or Fromm later on.

Raises the question if both teams pass on a QB at that point then how far do they fall?
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote: April 9, 2020, 3:25 pm Everybody has them locked in to drafting a QB at no5 but I think as the draft gets closer more will realise that no fait accompli. As pointed out there are genuine question marks on both candidates there. Who's to say the Phins heirarchy haven't come to the conclusion that neither is worth a pick in that spot. Chargers in a similar position may also feel the same. They have Taylor as a bridge so may prefer Eason, Hurts or Fromm later on.

Raises the question if both teams pass on a QB at that point then how far do they fall?
I like where this is going, BUT, why would Bengals want to pass on Burrow? Esp. when everyone seems the think he is more legit than any other option in the draft? The only answer I can give is the suggestion I made about Phins, ducking the QBs to stack the rest. Worry about QB in 2021.

Lets assume Bengals say No. We want Burrow, thanks very much. Do you see a bidding war at 2 or 3 for the Skins and Lions between the Chargers and Phins to come up and get the next QB?

The other thing I wondered, everyone has Bengals taking Burrow and Skins taking Young. What if Bengals decide to take Young? Most people say he is the best player in the draft, why not take him? I can just imagine the Skins and Lions being flooded with calls if they did. What do you do as Skins GM?
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: April 9, 2020, 3:45 pm
Northern Raider wrote: April 9, 2020, 3:25 pm Everybody has them locked in to drafting a QB at no5 but I think as the draft gets closer more will realise that no fait accompli. As pointed out there are genuine question marks on both candidates there. Who's to say the Phins heirarchy haven't come to the conclusion that neither is worth a pick in that spot. Chargers in a similar position may also feel the same. They have Taylor as a bridge so may prefer Eason, Hurts or Fromm later on.

Raises the question if both teams pass on a QB at that point then how far do they fall?
I like where this is going, BUT, why would Bengals want to pass on Burrow? Esp. when everyone seems the think he is more legit than any other option in the draft? The only answer I can give is the suggestion I made about Phins, ducking the QBs to stack the rest. Worry about QB in 2021.

Lets assume Bengals say No. We want Burrow, thanks very much. Do you see a bidding war at 2 or 3 for the Skins and Lions between the Chargers and Phins to come up and get the next QB?

The other thing I wondered, everyone has Bengals taking Burrow and Skins taking Young. What if Bengals decide to take Young? Most people say he is the best player in the draft, why not take him? I can just imagine the Skins and Lions being flooded with calls if they did. What do you do as Skins GM?
Think you set a record for the most sentences ending in a question mark in one post. I'll start with your first one. Bengals won't be passing on Burrow. The only way I see him not ending up there is if they trade with the Dolphins.
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Re: NFL Thread

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl- ... ess-issue/

QB chatter from CBS Sports. They suggest a scenario where Phins might use their draft capital to up too.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Yeah, read that article before. It's a recurring theme but still all speculation. The next 2 weeks will be full of stories about possible scenarios. It's the best way to pass the time in the lead up when nothing is actually happening.

You said a potential bidding war between Phins and Chargers to trade up. Would be very one sided. Chargers don't have enough picks near the top to do much. I don't think they would be willing to give away the bulk of their draft for QB with bad injury history.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Do u guys know much about Zack Baun? DE/OLB Wisconsin?

Boys interviewed him yesterday. I hadn't heard his name mentioned in the DE class til now
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: April 10, 2020, 8:11 am Do u guys know much about Zack Baun? DE/OLB Wisconsin?

Boys interviewed him yesterday. I hadn't heard his name mentioned in the DE class til now
No. Hope this helps.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Texans traded for Cooks and a 4th, for a 2nd.
Seems like a good trade for Texans TBH
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote: April 10, 2020, 9:26 am
Matt wrote: April 10, 2020, 8:11 am Do u guys know much about Zack Baun? DE/OLB Wisconsin?

Boys interviewed him yesterday. I hadn't heard his name mentioned in the DE class til now
No. Hope this helps.
It doesn't, but at least im not the only one
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: April 10, 2020, 9:39 am
Northern Raider wrote: April 10, 2020, 9:26 am
Matt wrote: April 10, 2020, 8:11 am Do u guys know much about Zack Baun? DE/OLB Wisconsin?

Boys interviewed him yesterday. I hadn't heard his name mentioned in the DE class til now
No. Hope this helps.
It doesn't, but at least im not the only one
Just read the scouting reports. OLB/edge rusher with a decent grade. Cowboys maybe looking at him with their 2nd or 3rd round pick depending on who they get prior.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Baun is a really good prospect, not sure he’ll be a superstar but I think he’s one of the safer “good players” in the draft

I think he’s a good chance to go late round 1
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Re: NFL Thread

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The cooks trade is another wild, wild swing by BoB
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Re: NFL Thread

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Botman wrote: April 10, 2020, 10:53 am The cooks trade is another wild, wild swing by BoB
Texans sending pick 57 to Rams. Still have pick 40 but going to be a quiet first couple of days for them.

I just read that Rams are swallowing $21m in dead cap money. :shock:
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Re: NFL Thread

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Botman wrote: April 10, 2020, 10:53 am Baun is a really good prospect, not sure he’ll be a superstar but I think he’s one of the safer “good players” in the draft

I think he’s a good chance to go late round 1
The CBS article i read said late 1st early 2nd grade
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote: April 10, 2020, 11:06 am
Botman wrote: April 10, 2020, 10:53 am The cooks trade is another wild, wild swing by BoB
Texans sending pick 57 to Rams. Still have pick 40 but going to be a quiet first couple of days for them.

I just read that Rams are swallowing $21m in dead cap money. :shock:
They are in deep cap diddlely do, so they probably have too
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: April 10, 2020, 2:59 pm
Northern Raider wrote: April 10, 2020, 11:06 am
Botman wrote: April 10, 2020, 10:53 am The cooks trade is another wild, wild swing by BoB
Texans sending pick 57 to Rams. Still have pick 40 but going to be a quiet first couple of days for them.

I just read that Rams are swallowing $21m in dead cap money. :shock:
They are in deep cap diddlely do, so they probably have too
It's not clear yet what the cap implications of this move are, but at the very least the Rams will eating a ton of dead cap for the move
What is going on in the LAR building is nothing short of a purge. They are basically cleaning house, eating **** for a year and looking to retool for 2021 and beyond. It's actually kind of wild.

As for the Texans, their top 4 WRS are now Cooks, Stills, Fuller and Cobb... all have HEAVY injury clouds over them, Cooks is legitmately one more concussion away from some doctor stepping in and refusing to let him play again, Stills, Fuller and Cobb have long illustrious soft tissue injury history. And the worst part? Even if they're all health... what do you do with that group other than run four verts? Haha they're all slightly different variations of the same player!

As Bill Barnwell pointed out, once you've cancelled out the same round picks, BoB traded Dre Hopkins and 4th for Brandin Cooks and David Johnson
Not great, BoB
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Re: NFL Thread

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Boys get more CB depth, signing Savion Smith from the XFL Ruffnecks, who were 5-0. 22yr old Alabama and LSU product. Was an unsigned free agent to Jags in 2018.

It's depth...
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Re: NFL Thread

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CBS now reporting Lions are fielding offers for the 3rd pick.
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Re: NFL Thread

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... s-offense/

Their newest draft, incl. plenty of trades we have been discussing
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Re: NFL Thread

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a
Matt wrote: April 11, 2020, 10:07 am https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... s-offense/

Their newest draft, incl. plenty of trades we have been discussing
Some bizarre **** happening in that mock. So bizarre that it's probably close to the mark. We all know the actual draft has more weird **** than anybody is game to put in a mock.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: April 11, 2020, 10:07 am https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... s-offense/

Their newest draft, incl. plenty of trades we have been discussing
Looks great to me!
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Re: NFL Thread

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Botman wrote: April 11, 2020, 6:27 pm
Matt wrote: April 11, 2020, 10:07 am https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... s-offense/

Their newest draft, incl. plenty of trades we have been discussing
Looks great to me!
:roflmao

I dont
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Re: NFL Thread

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Lots of talk about making moves to draft a potential franchise QB in round 1. History tells us it’s not an easy task. 2000-2018 there have been 53 QBs taken in the 1st. Of those at least 20 have been duds and another dozen or so were only solid NFL players. Ones that could legitimately be referred to as franchise QBs would be Rodgers, Eli Manning, Big Ben, Rivers, Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and maybe Andrew Luck. Mahomes and Jackson will join them. Other potential inclusions are Wentz, Goff and Watson.

So from 53 players drafted to be a ‘franchise QB’ only 13 are likely to achieve that status. Also consider how many of the top QBs over this period were picked up in later rounds because they weren’t considered good enough to be day 1 selections. Shows there’s no magic formula.
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Re: NFL Thread

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I think if you took a poll of league GM's, 99% of them would put Wentz and Watson firmly in the franchise QB bracket ahead of Cam or Stafford.
Mahomes and Jackson would also comfortably make that list. Probably Dak too.

But that's just nitpicking on the details. I think the point you're making is a very important one. THere are many roads you can take in the NFL to winning a title. They all involve having a QB capable of making the plays when you need it, but history does indeed show taking at QB high in the draft isnt the only path

Tom Brady is famously a 6th round pick, Brees was picked up as a free agent, P.Manning left indy for the Broncos and helped them win a title, Big Ben, Mahomes and Watson were all taken in the early teens, none were the first guy taken. Lamar was taken late in the first, he was the 5th. Dak went in the 3rd behind a slew of bad QBs

It's not about taking guys high, its about taking the right QB, and surrounding him with the infrusture and a system that helps them develop and succeed.
The dolphins need to identify the right guy and get him. If that's moving up., sitting tight, or taking someone later. If they get it right no one is going to care how they got there

No one gives a **** right now that Dallas wanted desperately to get Paxton Lynch, who bombed badly. Jerreh spoke openly about how gutted he was not to come away from day 1 one without Lynch. They again tried to get Connor Cook, another whiff.. they settle for Dak and no one gives a **** they got it wrong twice before that
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Re: NFL Thread

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I was being conservative about guys who have only been around a few years. Yes, Wentz would qualify by now. Cam Newton and Matt Stafford most definitely have been franchise QBs.

I left out Joe Flacco despite his success. Ravens didn't build their team around him. He was one cog in their machine.

Fact remains that teams really don't know how a QB will pan out in the NFL. All they can do is go with the traits that appeal to them and hope they make the transition.

As I've said with the Dolphins I am happy if they sit tight at 5 and get Tua or Herbert because they can still have a successful draft even if their QB did end up a bust. Trade away those other picks and a lot more stock is out into a high risk draft position. Realistically it's only them and Chargers who would make the move and they would both have to be set on the same player for it to make sense.

Detroit know they can trade down to 5 or 6 and still likely get the guy they want (Okudah or even Simmons). Thing is their trade targets know this too. That reduces the value somewhat. Chargers don't have as much to trade. Dolphins have plenty. Be easy to 'outbid' anything the Chargers throw up.
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Re: NFL Thread

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I think if they can sit tight @ 5 and get Tua, that's perfect.

If someone does come up and get Tua in front of them, i would be hestitant to take Herbert... 24 months ago he looked like a sure fire #1 pick but im not nearly as sold now. If i were the Dolphins @ 5, if Tua and Burrow are gone, id come back again next year for the QB... unless they really like Love, i could see that
I dont see it with Herbert though, not anymore, i was a beleiver but something about his 2020 has soured me

Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect i've ever seen, Justin Fields is special too, if the Dolphins miss on Tua and Burrow, then id build the team up, maybe take the OT, get a weapon or two, stick a **** QB in there for 2020 and Tank for Trevor.

But i think Tua is a prospect worth trading up for, they've built a war chest of assets to trade for precisely this chance, if they've got to give up a couple of firsts to get Tua, id do it
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Re: NFL Thread

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Tua is an amazing talent. His injury history is hard to overlook though. I'd happily take him at 5. Trading up I'm not so keen on. Giving up multiple picks for a guy who might spend half his rookie contact on IR. That I'm not keen on.

Herbert I agree with you. He's capable of being an elite passer. His arm is I credible. The way he plays though I'm not convinced he'll thrive at NFL level. Lacks the touch and accuracy that are critical for QB in the NFL. Again though I'm OK if Tua is gone and we take him at 5. If his flaws can be fixed with coaching then he's got plenty of other aspects for success. We still have plenty of 1st and 2nd round picks to address other roster needs. Next year too.

As for next year, Trevor Lawrence is special. Any team in need of a QB will be clamoring for him. Of course this time last year it was all about Tua, Herbert and Fromm. Burrow was on nobody's radar.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Yeah you'd have to be very confident wiht your medical on Tua to trade up for him.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Botman wrote: April 12, 2020, 8:18 pm Yeah you'd have to be very confident wiht your medical on Tua to trade up for him.
That's the big thing. They haven't been able to do that. Based on free agent signings the Dolphins front office are very big on recruiting durable players. Therefore could be hesitant on Tua. Chargers seem less risk averse and they did tag Hunter Henry who's had plenty of injury issues.

Now consider both teams don't want Tua because of medical history and pass on Herbert because of reasons we already pointed out. End up going with Wirfs, Simmons or whoever instead. Wouldn't that set the rest of the 1st round alight. :D
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Re: NFL Thread

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Northern Raider wrote: April 13, 2020, 10:51 am
Botman wrote: April 12, 2020, 8:18 pm Yeah you'd have to be very confident wiht your medical on Tua to trade up for him.
That's the big thing. They haven't been able to do that. Based on free agent signings the Dolphins front office are very big on recruiting durable players. Therefore could be hesitant on Tua. Chargers seem less risk averse and they did tag Hunter Henry who's had plenty of injury issues.

Now consider both teams don't want Tua because of medical history and pass on Herbert because of reasons we already pointed out. End up going with Wirfs, Simmons or whoever instead. Wouldn't that set the rest of the 1st round alight. :D
Someone would still take him.

Panthers had Cam, injury prone TBF, and new coach, but who knows? Bridgewater allows him to sit for a yr or 2.

Are Jagz happy with Mint-chew?

Raiders? They have been looking to move Carr for a couple of yrs. Signed Mariota, and Tua is a better version of him... when/If fit.

Colts? They lost Luck. Surely Rivers isnt their guy. Brissett is a very good backup, but top dawg he isn't. Well... unless they are tanking.

Broncos? Driscol, Rypien or Lock? Surely a #1 rated QB is worth the punt.
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