NFL Thread

[Botman]

I've got some small change on Javonte Williams, i dont think i'll collect on it, but at the time i got him at $8.00 and thought that was over valued.
I've also got money on Mac Jones over 3.5 @ $3.08 Davonta Smith over 11.5 @ $1.96 and and Jaylen Waddle U11.5 @ $1.91,

i agree that Slater is worth a little nibble, again unlikely but he's over priced at nearly $4.
There some buzz around Barmore is going to be a top 15 pick, but i couldnt bet on him

[Botman]

Other bets i dont mind

Jerimiah Owusu-Koramoah to be the first LB drafted over Parsons, it's $8.00 and again i just think that's over valued. JOK is a guy that some teams are going to LOVE.
Under 13.5 defensive players drafted in round 1 @ $1.98

[Northern Raider]

You've got overs on the Mac Jones bet. He and Fields are both equal favs at $2.10 to be no 3 pick.

JOK at $8.00 is OK as he only needs to jump one player. Thing is if a team is seriously looking at LB and Parsons is still there I don't see them letting him slide. He's a genuine top 10 prospect who could easily drop to the teens. Somebody will snap him up when that happens.

[Botman]

You've got overs on the Mac Jones bet.

Yeah i bet that, perhaps stupidly, at the very height of "The niners moved up for Mac Jones, think it was 2-3 days after the trade"... ill refuse to believe Mac is the pick until i hear Goodell announce it

[Northern Raider]

Jones ahead of Lance I can accept. Jones over Fields I can't.

[Botman]

Jones ahead of Lance I can accept. Jones over Fields I can't.

I agree
Lance has much higher upside but the concerns about level of competition, and how much actual football he's played etc, the 10,000 hr mentality... i think it is reasonable that teams might like the safety of Jones over the upside of Lance
Not me though... My Qb's are separated into 4 tiers:

1. Lawrence
2. Fields, Wilson and Lance
3. Jones
4. The Rest

[Northern Raider]

That's it. Lawrence the standout. Wilson, Fields, Lance the top 3 prospects in any normal year. Jones just below their level. The gap between no3 and no4 on that list is much bigger this year too. That elevates Jones value somewhat.

[Matt]

Are we there yet?!?

[Matt]

Cheifs and Ravers trade.
Orlando Brown LT and picks, for a heap of picks.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chie ... t-rounder/

[Botman]

Cheifs and Ravers trade.
Orlando Brown LT and picks, for a heap of picks.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chie ... t-rounder/

Not surprised by that, i bet the chiefs kept looking at their likely boards at 31 and thought Brown was the best tackle they could get with that pick. I think their take away from this season was that Mahomes is superman but even he cant overcome crippling line issues... they're going to make sure come hell or high water, that Mahomes isnt running for his life and they probably think they'll win another championship if he's not

[Matt]

Cheifs and Ravers trade.
Orlando Brown LT and picks, for a heap of picks.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chie ... t-rounder/

Not surprised by that, i bet the chiefs kept looking at their likely boards at 31 and thought Brown was the best tackle they could get with that pick. I think their take away from this season was that Mahomes is superman but even he cant overcome crippling line issues... they're going to make sure come hell or high water, that Mahomes isnt running for his life and they probably think they'll win another championship if he's not

Can you make hide or tail of the pick swaps?!? Its all over the place

[Botman]

That’s easy
They don’t care about picks, they think if Mahomes isn’t suffering historic levels of pressure he’ll win most games
They’re right
So who gives a **** about picks if you think this guy will give Mahomes time

[the bone]

Cheifs and Ravers trade.
Orlando Brown LT and picks, for a heap of picks.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chie ... t-rounder/

Not surprised by that, i bet the chiefs kept looking at their likely boards at 31 and thought Brown was the best tackle they could get with that pick. I think their take away from this season was that Mahomes is superman but even he cant overcome crippling line issues... they're going to make sure come hell or high water, that Mahomes isnt running for his life and they probably think they'll win another championship if he's not

Can you make hide or tail of the pick swaps?!? Its all over the place

Based on a few different trade/value charts, an article in The Athletic had the net amount paid by the Chiefs as roughly a second round pick.

[Botman]

Historical bets placed a few weeks ago
First RB Javonte Williams $10 @ $8
Mac Jones O3.5 - $20 @ $3.08
Davonta Smith O11.5 - $20 @ $1.96
Jaylen Waddle U11.5 - $20 @ $1.91

New bets:

Over/Unders
Ian Book O207.5 - $20 @ $1.87
Eric Stokes U47.5 - $20 @ 1.87
Micah Parsons U12.5 - $20 @ $2.10
Ja’Marr Chase U5.5 - $20 @ $1.77

#3 pick - Trey Lance - $20 @ $3.75

Chase, Harris, Sewell - $20 @ $2.30
Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Pitts - $20 @ $6.50
Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman -$20 @ $4.50

Lance vs Fields - $20 @ $2.34
Bateman vs Toney - $20 @ $1.73

Locked in now, figure news on boards will start to get leaked out soon, i full expect the niners pick to be known by Thursday morning
So now is the time to take my swings!

Not super wild about my Javonte bet a few weeks ago, would like that one back, and im investing with my heart of about the Niners not taking Mac, which all evidence points to being wrong, but im going with my heart... otherwise, feel good about these bets.

Will do my final non trade and trade mocks in the next few days.

[Matt]

Sean Lee retired.
Looks like the Boys are in the LB mix

[Northern Raider]

Looking deeper at the QB situation in this draft. I'm firmly convinced all the top 5 will be off the board before the top 10 finishes. We know the top 3 will be QBs and with Falcons and Dolphins looking prepared to trade down they could all be gone by pick 6.

Many have written off Panthers drafting a QB because of the Darnold trade. Thing is Darnold does not have glittering CV and while talented, hasn't done enough to show he's going to elevate your team. Most notable is that Darnold only has 1 year left on his deal, which in itself is only $5m (high end backup money). Also consider they gave away future picks for him.
Those being 2nd and 4th in 2022. Darnold looks more and more like and insurance play as they are in the perfect position to grab Lance, Fields or Jones this year.

Anybody looking to draft a QB in round 1 must jump above the Panthers. Broncos will be the first team on the phone as they no doubt realise Drew Lock is not their guy. What it costs them is yet to be seen. Will be tough for Falcons to trade up as they've given away future collateral for Darnold. They would have to give up picks in this year's draft (maybe a 3rd and 5th) which would not appeal to them.

Detroit are effectively out of the market for top QBs with Goff on a 4 year deal. Although the contract is a favourable one to cut/trade him after 2 years. They would definitely consider a trading down. Their phone could run hot if Dolphins sit tight at no6.

[Botman]

100% agree that all 5 are going in the top 10... I think the Panthers, if Justin Fields is there @ 8 are going to have a REALLY big think about just taking him. We'll see what my mock does, but at the moment i think ill have Lawrence, Wilson and Lance going 1-2-3... i'll have Denver coming up with Detroit to get Fields in front of Carolina, and ill have the Pats coming into the top 10, maybe with the Lions trading back again, or with Carolina to get Mac... i dont think Mac Jones is the "splash" that Tepper is looking for, so i dont think they'd consider him as their future.

And i need it to happen, need those 5 QB's to go... because i've got 7 players i want in this draft for Philly... Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Smith, Sewell, Surtain, Horn... if they can get one of those guys, i'd be really happy. If all 7 of those guys are gone, then one of the QB's has to be sitting there at #12, then i think the eagles should trade back

[Northern Raider]

100% agree that all 5 are going in the top 10... I think the Panthers, if Justin Fields is there @ 8 are going to have a REALLY big think about just taking him. We'll see what my mock does, but at the moment i think ill have Lawrence, Wilson and Lance going 1-2-3... i'll have Denver coming up with Detroit to get Fields in front of Carolina, and ill have the Pats coming into the top 10, maybe with the Lions trading back again, or with Carolina to get Mac... i dont think Mac Jones is the "splash" that Tepper is looking for, so i dont think they'd consider him as their future.

And i need it to happen, need those 5 QB's to go... because i've got 7 players i want in this draft for Philly... Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Smith, Sewell, Surtain, Horn... if they can get one of those guys, i'd be really happy. If all 7 of those guys are gone, then one of the QB's has to be sitting there at #12, then i think the eagles should trade back

Imagine Fields or Lance still on the board at 12. Trade back to to 15 with NE. Watch them create a new Superbowl dynasty for Belichick. Meanwhile in Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts gets benched for Joe Flacco.

[Botman]

That'd be awful, nightmare scenario haha

But for whatever reasons (they're bad evaluators?) the eagles dont view anyone outside of Lawrence/Wilson as franchise guys... otherwise they'd have stayed at 6.
So in that circumstance given they don't seem to like the other guys, take the pats extra picks and move back

For clarity though, if either Field and Lance is sitting there @12 when we pick, i think they should take him, so sadly they won. Mac im happy to pass on.

But i think they're all going top 10, and i think the Eagles are probably eying a Surtain/Horn in round 1, and thinking they'll be able to get one of Rondale Moore/Terrance Marshall Jr in the second

[the bone]

I’ve got to disagree on the 5 QBs in top 10 idea. I think as always the fans and media are bigger on the QBs than the scouts and GMs are. I also have to disagree on the Panthers take - they’re not taking a QB at 8. They got Darnold because they’re only enamoured with 3 of the top 5 QBs, and post the 49ers trade they saw their opportunity gone. If, in some crazy world, 49ers take Jones leaving Fields available at 7, the Broncos will jump the Panthers and take him. The Panthers aren’t going to get in a bidding war after investing in Darnold already.

I’ll drop my final no trade mock in a couple of days, but I’m expecting a big fall for Jones i.e. I don’t think the Pats will even take him at 15.

[Northern Raider]

I’ve got to disagree on the 5 QBs in top 10 idea. I think as always the fans and media are bigger on the QBs than the scouts and GMs are. I also have to disagree on the Panthers take - they’re not taking a QB at 8. They got Darnold because they’re only enamoured with 3 of the top 5 QBs, and post the 49ers trade they saw their opportunity gone. If, in some crazy world, 49ers take Jones leaving Fields available at 7, the Broncos will jump the Panthers and take him. The Panthers aren’t going to get in a bidding war after investing in Darnold already.

I’ll drop my final no trade mock in a couple of days, but I’m expecting a big fall for Jones i.e. I don’t think the Pats will even take him at 15.

Darnold is a free agent after 2021 and they gave up future picks. Not 2021 picks. This is a short term play. That positions them to bring in a rookie QB and not have to play him from day 1.

Either way they have to address their QB situation beyond the upcoming season.

[the bone]

I’ve got to disagree on the 5 QBs in top 10 idea. I think as always the fans and media are bigger on the QBs than the scouts and GMs are. I also have to disagree on the Panthers take - they’re not taking a QB at 8. They got Darnold because they’re only enamoured with 3 of the top 5 QBs, and post the 49ers trade they saw their opportunity gone. If, in some crazy world, 49ers take Jones leaving Fields available at 7, the Broncos will jump the Panthers and take him. The Panthers aren’t going to get in a bidding war after investing in Darnold already.

I’ll drop my final no trade mock in a couple of days, but I’m expecting a big fall for Jones i.e. I don’t think the Pats will even take him at 15.

Darnold is a free agent after 2021 and they gave up future picks. Not 2021 picks. This is a short term play. That positions them to bring in a rookie QB and not have to play him from day 1.

Either way they have to address their QB situation beyond the upcoming season.

They’ll exercise the 5th year option for 2022, then they can tag him for 2023 if they so choose. There is no rush for them to address QB in this draft.

[Northern Raider]

I’ve got to disagree on the 5 QBs in top 10 idea. I think as always the fans and media are bigger on the QBs than the scouts and GMs are. I also have to disagree on the Panthers take - they’re not taking a QB at 8. They got Darnold because they’re only enamoured with 3 of the top 5 QBs, and post the 49ers trade they saw their opportunity gone. If, in some crazy world, 49ers take Jones leaving Fields available at 7, the Broncos will jump the Panthers and take him. The Panthers aren’t going to get in a bidding war after investing in Darnold already.

I’ll drop my final no trade mock in a couple of days, but I’m expecting a big fall for Jones i.e. I don’t think the Pats will even take him at 15.

Darnold is a free agent after 2021 and they gave up future picks. Not 2021 picks. This is a short term play. That positions them to bring in a rookie QB and not have to play him from day 1.

Either way they have to address their QB situation beyond the upcoming season.

They’ll exercise the 5th year option for 2022, then they can tag him for 2023 if they so choose. There is no rush for them to address QB in this draft.

Thats a fall back position for the team but they are not compelled to keep if for example they draft a QB with their top pick. Ether way it would be a very risky play for a team wait and see what they will do at pick 8.

At the end of the day it comes down to each team's assessment of the prospects, which we have no genuine insight to.

[the bone]

I’ve got to disagree on the 5 QBs in top 10 idea. I think as always the fans and media are bigger on the QBs than the scouts and GMs are. I also have to disagree on the Panthers take - they’re not taking a QB at 8. They got Darnold because they’re only enamoured with 3 of the top 5 QBs, and post the 49ers trade they saw their opportunity gone. If, in some crazy world, 49ers take Jones leaving Fields available at 7, the Broncos will jump the Panthers and take him. The Panthers aren’t going to get in a bidding war after investing in Darnold already.

I’ll drop my final no trade mock in a couple of days, but I’m expecting a big fall for Jones i.e. I don’t think the Pats will even take him at 15.

Darnold is a free agent after 2021 and they gave up future picks. Not 2021 picks. This is a short term play. That positions them to bring in a rookie QB and not have to play him from day 1.

Either way they have to address their QB situation beyond the upcoming season.

They’ll exercise the 5th year option for 2022, then they can tag him for 2023 if they so choose. There is no rush for them to address QB in this draft.

Thats a fall back position for the team but they are not compelled to keep if for example they draft a QB with their top pick. Ether way it would be a very risky play for a team wait and see what they will do at pick 8.

At the end of the day it comes down to each team's assessment of the prospects, which we have no genuine insight to.

It has been reported though that the Panthers are not enthralled with 2 of the top 5 QBs, and that was taken to mean Jones and Lance. And this fits with their move to trade for Darnold. So you can certainly infer what teams are going to do. I would be shocked if they took a QB at 8. They are in on Darnold at the very least for 2021, and probably 2022. They’ll be more likely to draft a QB and sit him behind Darnold in 12 months time.

[Northern Raider]

Well if they were in on those guys they sure wouldn't be advertising it. They want them to drop to 8. Of course if they didn't want a QB then they would let slip that they were. That way teams could jump ahead to get one and the player they want is more likely to fall.

This is draft time. Rumour and misdirection plays a big a part as scouting reports and player analysis.

[Botman]

No trade mock

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3. San Francisco 49ers - Trey Lance, QB, NDS
4. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5. Cincinatti Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Clemson
6. Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
7. Detroit Lions - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
8. Carolina Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
9. Denver Broncos - Justin Fields, QB, OSU
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
11. New York Giants - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
12. Philadelphia Eagles - Davonta Smith, WR, Alabama
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
15. New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
17. LA Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
18. Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, Edge, Tulsa
19. Washington Football Team - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
20. Chicago Bears - Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
21. Indianapolis Colts - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
23. New York Jets - Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jeremiah Owusu-Koranoah, LB, Notre Dame
26. Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
27. Baltimore Ravens - Trevor Moehrig, S, TCU
28. New Orleans Saints - Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
29. Green Bay Packers - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
30. Buffalo Bills - Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State
31. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon, Edge, Washington
32. Tampa Bay Bucanners - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

[Botman]

Trade Mock

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3. San Francisco 49ers - Trey Lance, QB, NDS
4. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5. Cincinatti Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Clemson
6. Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
7. *TRADE* Denver Broncos - Justin Fields, QB, OSU
8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
9. *TRADE* New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
11. New York Giants - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
12. Philadelphia Eagles - Davonta Smith, WR, Alabama
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
15. Detroit Lions - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
16. *TRADE* Miami Dolphins - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
17. LA Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
18. *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
19. Washington Football Team - Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
20. Chicago Bears - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
21. Indianapolis Colts - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
22. Tennessee Titans - Jeremiah Owusu-Koranoah, LB, Notre Dame
23. New York Jets - Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
25. *TRADE* New Orleans Saints - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
26. Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
27. Baltimore Ravens - Trevor Moehrig, S, TCU
28. *TRADE* Jacksonville Jaguars - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
29. Green Bay Packers - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
30. Buffalo Bills - Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State
31. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon, Edge, Washington
32. Tampa Bay Bucanners - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

[Northern Raider]

Both those mocks require a little more absurdity before I regard them as credible. Way too sensible for my liking.

Joe Tryon an interesting one at the end of the first round. His stock has been talked up quite a bit past few weeks. Still think he'll end up a day 2 pick.

[Northern Raider]

Betting markets have Mac Jones as 1.40 fav for no3 pick. Must be some serious mail going around the he is their guy.

Trey Lance is also 1.40 to go in the top 6. Expectation must be for somebody trading up with Falcons or Dolphins to get him if the money is correct on Jones to 49ers.

[Botman]

Both those mocks require a little more absurdity before I regard them as credible. Way too sensible for my liking.

Joe Tryon an interesting one at the end of the first round. His stock has been talked up quite a bit past few weeks. Still think he'll end up a day 2 pick.

Yeah Tryon and Jamin Davis are two guys that have seemingly gotten late buzz, i heard it speculated on a pod that they're the sort of guys coaches love, and the coaches really only start getting involved late so that might explain it

[Northern Raider]

Both those mocks require a little more absurdity before I regard them as credible. Way too sensible for my liking.

Joe Tryon an interesting one at the end of the first round. His stock has been talked up quite a bit past few weeks. Still think he'll end up a day 2 pick.

Yeah Tryon and Jamin Davis are two guys that have seemingly gotten late buzz, i heard it speculated on a pod that they're the sort of guys coaches love, and the coaches really only start getting involved late so that might explain it

I like playing with the PFF draft simulator. Every time I run it I get Jamin Davis to the Dolphins with pick 81.

[Botman]

Ill tell you one LB im super big on who is going to be i think a day 3 pick
Tony Fields II, i get him for the eagles every damn mock draft i do in round 4, and i take him 50 spots too early to make sure of it.

Love his tape. I think he's going to be a really good LB in the league
I might go through each position and post my top 5-7 at each position in the coming downs...

[Matt]

Both those mocks require a little more absurdity before I regard them as credible. Way too sensible for my liking.

Joe Tryon an interesting one at the end of the first round. His stock has been talked up quite a bit past few weeks. Still think he'll end up a day 2 pick.

Cowboys like him

[Matt]

Both those mocks require a little more absurdity before I regard them as credible. Way too sensible for my liking.

Joe Tryon an interesting one at the end of the first round. His stock has been talked up quite a bit past few weeks. Still think he'll end up a day 2 pick.

Cowboys like him.
They also like Zaven Collins.

[Botman]

Just heard on a podcast that Terrance Marshall Jr has a knee issue that's come up as a red flag for a few teams
Could see him drop completely out of round 1 contention and early 2, and into the late 2/early 3 range

I really like him though. I'd be totally cool with Horn/Marshall Jr for the Eagles at 12 and 37