NFL Thread

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Matt
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Pigman wrote: December 31, 2018, 9:26 pm Honestly, i think both NFC-E teams get dumped out here in Wildcard weekend, but im really happy to be in the play offs
Agreed
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by PrimetimeRaider »

Bengals fans must feel like they've won the Super Bowl . Marvin Lewis' reign of terror is over.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by gerg »

I didn't realise he was still there.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

Black Monday lived up to the hype this year
8 coaches hitting the bricks, a full qtr of the league. Not a good time to be the Dolphins who are going to get the 8th best candidate... the good news is most of the top candidates are going to stink too, and Riech-Indy, Pederson-Philly are nondescript hires that have worked out

Also Mike Mayock, NFL network draft guru, is being hired as the GM for the Raiders. Like it from a draft perspective, he's been a stud evaluator for a decade now, but not sure about it in relation to contracts and other day to day duties
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

PrimetimeRaider wrote: January 1, 2019, 10:22 am Bengals fans must feel like they've won the Super Bowl . Marvin Lewis' reign of terror is over.
Oh the reign of terror is only just beginning.. Marv had to go, it had been too long but he raised the titanic there and you just wait and see Paul Brown shoe horn in Hue Jackson to replace him
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by gerg »

Still no heat on Tomlinson? Why?

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

extremely patient owners.
They've had 3 HC since 1969... Chuck Noll (19069-1991, 21 years), Bill Cowher (1992-2006, 14 years) and Tomlin (2007-Present, 12 years)

Tomlin would be given at least one more year to right the ship
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by gerg »

I guess having the ring still counts for something but putting it in perspective it was almost in the 'Ricky Stuart is a successful coach' era.

For such a cutthroat sport they do give some of their coaches a long leash.

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Re: NFL Thread

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Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 11:38 am Black Monday lived up to the hype this year
8 coaches hitting the bricks, a full qtr of the league. Not a good time to be the Dolphins who are going to get the 8th best candidate... the good news is most of the top candidates are going to stink too, and Riech-Indy, Pederson-Philly are nondescript hires that have worked out

Also Mike Mayock, NFL network draft guru, is being hired as the GM for the Raiders. Like it from a draft perspective, he's been a stud evaluator for a decade now, but not sure about it in relation to contracts and other day to day duties
Does he need Grudens approval? If so, doesn't make a lick of difference
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Re: NFL Thread

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Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 11:39 am
PrimetimeRaider wrote: January 1, 2019, 10:22 am Bengals fans must feel like they've won the Super Bowl . Marvin Lewis' reign of terror is over.
Oh the reign of terror is only just beginning.. Marv had to go, it had been too long but he raised the titanic there and you just wait and see Paul Brown shoe horn in Hue Jackson to replace him
:roflmao
That would be fantastic... is it therefore the Cincy Browns OR the Cleveland Bengals???
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Re: NFL Thread

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Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 12:08 pm extremely patient owners.
They've had 3 HC since 1969... Chuck Noll (19069-1991, 21 years), Bill Cowher (1992-2006, 14 years) and Tomlin (2007-Present, 12 years)

Tomlin would be given at least one more year to right the ship
TBF, he has been Div champs 6 times and made playoffs 8. 75% chance of making the big dance is reasonable going. His record is better than you think. They have been in a constantly good Div too.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Yeah I don’t think Tomlin should be fired
He’s a flawed coach, in that his teams inexplicably lay 2-3 eggs a season against teams they should crush and it costs them... be it home field, a bye or in this case the play offs

So he really needs to get that and his locker room under control which has been a disaster this year

But he is a good coach, has been a good coach for a decade now and deserves a season to fix this

If Tomlin got fired he would immediately be the top candidate available
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Re: NFL Thread

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Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 3:52 pm Yeah I don’t think Tomlin should be fired
He’s a flawed coach, in that his teams inexplicably lay 2-3 eggs a season against teams they should crush and it costs them... be it home field, a bye or in this case the play offs

So he really needs to get that and his locker room under control which has been a disaster this year

But he is a good coach, has been a good coach for a decade now and deserves a season to fix this

If Tomlin got fired he would immediately be the top candidate available
His issues are the difference between very good and elite, as far as coaches go.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

@Pigman,

Ive just read an article suggesting Jagz might part ways with Fournette after being injured all yr, and his suspension. The suspension appears to have voided his guarenteed money, and has no more in his 7mill contract outside this yr.

Surely thats crazy?!?

Also, with Eli taking his family to the field in prematch, speculation is rising that retirement is on the cards. He has never done this before apparently.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote:@Pigman,

Ive just read an article suggesting Jagz might part ways with Fournette after being injured all yr, and his suspension. The suspension appears to have voided his guarenteed money, and has no more in his 7mill contract outside this yr.

Surely thats crazy?!?

Also, with Eli taking his family to the field in prematch, speculation is rising that retirement is on the cards. He has never done this before apparently.
Jags to make a play for Le'veon?

Jags to make a play for Foles???

They have needs.

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Re: NFL Thread

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Matt wrote: January 1, 2019, 6:04 pm @Pigman,

Ive just read an article suggesting Jagz might part ways with Fournette after being injured all yr, and his suspension. The suspension appears to have voided his guarenteed money, and has no more in his 7mill contract outside this yr.

Surely thats crazy?!?

Also, with Eli taking his family to the field in prematch, speculation is rising that retirement is on the cards. He has never done this before apparently.

So its important to note a few things about this:

1. The Jags didnt HAVE to void his gtd money. They did. That tells you straight up they're REALLY thinking about making a move.
2. Lenny F hasnt actually been that good, tbh. He's a two down thumper who doesnt offer much as a pass catcher, given the way the NFL is going that's a problem. He's never rushed for more than 4 yards per carry, which is a MAJOR problem
3. He was a VERY high draft pick and so is paid WELL above average RB money. For a two down thumper, would you rather have Fournette @ 7mil p/y or say, Jay Ajayi who you'll probably be able to get for less than half that?
4. He's reportedly a problem in the locker room. He can into camp out of shape and is having to be managed week to week by the coaching staff.
5. Feels like you can replace and find RB's very easily. CJ Anderson just came off the street and knocked out nearly 300 yards in two games replacing Gurley. Look at Damien Williams who has been around for an age and never done anything has done great replacing Hunt, Jackson for Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman replacing Freeman, Josh Adams has given the Eagles some juice for an UDFA, 30+ AP replacing Guice... Conner, Samuels etc with Bell
Rightly or wrongly teams feel like RB's can be found easily

All those things considered... are the jags crazy? Probably not. Sounds like they're moving in the right way to me.

Re: Eli, he's coming back, whatever that family thing is seems like it's not worth worrying about. Could be wrong, have been before, will be again. I'll be stunned if he's not a Giant in 2019
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Re: NFL Thread

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Sossman wrote: January 1, 2019, 6:09 pmJags to make a play for Le'veon?

Jags to make a play for Foles???

They have needs.

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The jags are in cap hell, they've got a ton of money committed.
They arent cutting or trading Fournette to chase Lev...again, i maybe wrong but that seems counter-intuitive to me
Foles, Tyrod or Teddy B to the Jags makes a lot of sense IMO. How they make the money to sign one of those guys is another matter
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Re: NFL Thread

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On the coaching hiring and firings... ill give some thoughts based on teams, and in order of how i view the openings.

1. Green Bay Packers
Way too late, Beave had to go. Enough said. Good firing. For me this is the best job. You get Rodgers for 3-4 years at least, gives you PLENTY of time to pick and choose a successor. The OL is really good. The QB is elite obviously. I think Adams is one of the best WRs in the league and Aaron Jones is a stud. On D i think they've got 3-4 foundational pieces (Daniels, Martinez, Alexander, Jackson, Williams) to build around. To me, this is the best job.

2. Cleveland Browns
Wow. Who'd have thought. The Browns now have what i and many believe is a franchise QB. They've got some really great pieces. The OL needs work but it's not awful. They've got a pass rusher who's a legit star, they've got a very promising secondary with Peppers and Ward who are play makers. I like Kirksey in the middle of the D. They've got the foundations for a contender. All young and cost controlled for the next 2-3 years. If someone wants to argue this is #1 i wouldnt argue too much.
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daylight
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3. Denver Broncos
This might be a little surprising but i kind of like the Broncos position. It's about pieces. Firstly it has to be said they dont have a long term answer at QB, so that's a major hit. But Chubb is a stud, and the D is capable of keeping them in it a long time. I think their rookie class was outstanding. Sutton and Lindsey look like play makers to me. I dont think Vance did THAT bad a job and Elway could be a problem but i think if they can find a QB, this team has the other pieces to bounce back quickly.

4. New York Jets
I could have easily had them higher because i am a Sam Darnold believer. I think he's going to need another 1-2 years and this hire is sooo important in terms of his development. But i think that's a franchise QB. Outside of him, it's really only Jamal Adams, but there is something nice about a clean slate. Like you can come in there with some high picks, a QB and stud on D and just mould anyway you like. There is nothing that makes you need to go a certain way. I dont like that the GM is sticking around though, could be a major problem.

5. Arizona Cardinals
I like this job! I do. I dont like one and done coaching fires mostly but the job Wilkes did was so appalling that it was deserved. I am a Rosen fan, i believe in that kid. He's been in a total trashbag situation but he's played tough, hard and he makes throws every week that make me sit back. I could be wrong but i think a good coach will like what Rosen offers. Rosen, DJ, Chandler Jones, Pat Peterson, Christian Kirk and Baker... i think there is something to build around there. They've got the top pick so they can add Nick Bosa and instantly transform into a disgusting pass rush with the best cover corner and a run game via DJ... that's a pretty nice start.

------

More daylight

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6. Cincinnati Bengals
Hard to separate these last few jobs. I put the Bengals here because at least you're going to get some long term security. Whoever gets this job (Hot tip. it'll be Hue Jackson haha) is going to get the full terms of their contract at least, likely to be 4-5 years. Paul Brown is too cheap to pay out anyone so that's one thing. I think there is some good pieces here. Mixon is great, the OL is better than most, the QB is a major issue but you've at least got someone servicible. It's pretty good and deep at corner, though they didnt play well this year. Atkins is VERY good. Carl Lawson is a good young player. It's enough to get them over the bottom 2. Just.

7. Tampa Bay Bucs
This is the best of the rest. It's a clean slate scenario. I think you're going to get saddled with Jameis for a year and then be able to move on. Evans is a good piece. You'd like to be able to get Ronald Jones back into the fold, i dunno. There isnt a lot here, the GM is sticking around and that's a problem too. He's been awful. I wouldnt like to take this job. It's a bad job. Whoever comes in here is going to have to be VERY good to get this **** turned around in the 2-3 years they'll get before being turfed.

8. Miami Dolphins
This to me is far and away the worst job. Firstly ownership is a nightmare. They've got no idea how to build or draft a roster. The QB situation is as bad as any. They're going to head into the rookie/Foles/Teddy sort of zone. I don't see a lot on offence that makes me think they can turn it around... actually i thought Gase did a nice job of scheming up some yards. I think Howard is a stud, and i think Fitzpatrick is gonna be good, but there isnt anything else worth feeding. If i were a coach who thought another chance was coming, i would sit as DC/OC before taking this job. Frankly they should have kept Gase.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 7:06 pm
Matt wrote: January 1, 2019, 6:04 pm @Pigman,

Ive just read an article suggesting Jagz might part ways with Fournette after being injured all yr, and his suspension. The suspension appears to have voided his guarenteed money, and has no more in his 7mill contract outside this yr.

Surely thats crazy?!?

Also, with Eli taking his family to the field in prematch, speculation is rising that retirement is on the cards. He has never done this before apparently.

So its important to note a few things about this:

1. The Jags didnt HAVE to void his gtd money. They did. That tells you straight up they're REALLY thinking about making a move.
2. Lenny F hasnt actually been that good, tbh. He's a two down thumper who doesnt offer much as a pass catcher, given the way the NFL is going that's a problem. He's never rushed for more than 4 yards per carry, which is a MAJOR problem
3. He was a VERY high draft pick and so is paid WELL above average RB money. For a two down thumper, would you rather have Fournette @ 7mil p/y or say, Jay Ajayi who you'll probably be able to get for less than half that?
4. He's reportedly a problem in the locker room. He can into camp out of shape and is having to be managed week to week by the coaching staff.
5. Feels like you can replace and find RB's very easily. CJ Anderson just came off the street and knocked out nearly 300 yards in two games replacing Gurley. Look at Damien Williams who has been around for an age and never done anything has done great replacing Hunt, Jackson for Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman replacing Freeman, Josh Adams has given the Eagles some juice for an UDFA, 30+ AP replacing Guice... Conner, Samuels etc with Bell
Rightly or wrongly teams feel like RB's can be found easily

All those things considered... are the jags crazy? Probably not. Sounds like they're moving in the right way to me.

Re: Eli, he's coming back, whatever that family thing is seems like it's not worth worrying about. Could be wrong, have been before, will be again. I'll be stunned if he's not a Giant in 2019
Ok.
Not so crazy then.
Seems like Jagz are in for another fire sale before a rebuilding. Crazy to think they were in with a shot/ looked like building to something only last year.
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Re: NFL Thread

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Pigman wrote: January 1, 2019, 7:43 pm On the coaching hiring and firings... ill give some thoughts based on teams, and in order of how i view the openings.

1. Green Bay Packers
Way too late, Beave had to go. Enough said. Good firing. For me this is the best job. You get Rodgers for 3-4 years at least, gives you PLENTY of time to pick and choose a successor. The OL is really good. The QB is elite obviously. I think Adams is one of the best WRs in the league and Aaron Jones is a stud. On D i think they've got 3-4 foundational pieces (Daniels, Martinez, Alexander, Jackson, Williams) to build around. To me, this is the best job.

2. Cleveland Browns
Wow. Who'd have thought. The Browns now have what i and many believe is a franchise QB. They've got some really great pieces. The OL needs work but it's not awful. They've got a pass rusher who's a legit star, they've got a very promising secondary with Peppers and Ward who are play makers. I like Kirksey in the middle of the D. They've got the foundations for a contender. All young and cost controlled for the next 2-3 years. If someone wants to argue this is #1 i wouldnt argue too much.
-----
daylight
-----

3. Denver Broncos
This might be a little surprising but i kind of like the Broncos position. It's about pieces. Firstly it has to be said they dont have a long term answer at QB, so that's a major hit. But Chubb is a stud, and the D is capable of keeping them in it a long time. I think their rookie class was outstanding. Sutton and Lindsey look like play makers to me. I dont think Vance did THAT bad a job and Elway could be a problem but i think if they can find a QB, this team has the other pieces to bounce back quickly.

4. New York Jets
I could have easily had them higher because i am a Sam Darnold believer. I think he's going to need another 1-2 years and this hire is sooo important in terms of his development. But i think that's a franchise QB. Outside of him, it's really only Jamal Adams, but there is something nice about a clean slate. Like you can come in there with some high picks, a QB and stud on D and just mould anyway you like. There is nothing that makes you need to go a certain way. I dont like that the GM is sticking around though, could be a major problem.

5. Arizona Cardinals
I like this job! I do. I dont like one and done coaching fires mostly but the job Wilkes did was so appalling that it was deserved. I am a Rosen fan, i believe in that kid. He's been in a total trashbag situation but he's played tough, hard and he makes throws every week that make me sit back. I could be wrong but i think a good coach will like what Rosen offers. Rosen, DJ, Chandler Jones, Pat Peterson, Christian Kirk and Baker... i think there is something to build around there. They've got the top pick so they can add Nick Bosa and instantly transform into a disgusting pass rush with the best cover corner and a run game via DJ... that's a pretty nice start.

------

More daylight

------

6. Cincinnati Bengals
Hard to separate these last few jobs. I put the Bengals here because at least you're going to get some long term security. Whoever gets this job (Hot tip. it'll be Hue Jackson haha) is going to get the full terms of their contract at least, likely to be 4-5 years. Paul Brown is too cheap to pay out anyone so that's one thing. I think there is some good pieces here. Mixon is great, the OL is better than most, the QB is a major issue but you've at least got someone servicible. It's pretty good and deep at corner, though they didnt play well this year. Atkins is VERY good. Carl Lawson is a good young player. It's enough to get them over the bottom 2. Just.

7. Tampa Bay Bucs
This is the best of the rest. It's a clean slate scenario. I think you're going to get saddled with Jameis for a year and then be able to move on. Evans is a good piece. You'd like to be able to get Ronald Jones back into the fold, i dunno. There isnt a lot here, the GM is sticking around and that's a problem too. He's been awful. I wouldnt like to take this job. It's a bad job. Whoever comes in here is going to have to be VERY good to get this **** turned around in the 2-3 years they'll get before being turfed.

8. Miami Dolphins
This to me is far and away the worst job. Firstly ownership is a nightmare. They've got no idea how to build or draft a roster. The QB situation is as bad as any. They're going to head into the rookie/Foles/Teddy sort of zone. I don't see a lot on offence that makes me think they can turn it around... actually i thought Gase did a nice job of scheming up some yards. I think Howard is a stud, and i think Fitzpatrick is gonna be good, but there isnt anything else worth feeding. If i were a coach who thought another chance was coming, i would sit as DC/OC before taking this job. Frankly they should have kept Gase.
1. Having ARod makes u a chance straight up. Thats why Browns are at 2. Agree. Though it would be nice to be in that young hungry Browns locker room next yr.

Daylight = AGREED

Id actually reorder 3-5, Cards, Bronx, Jets. Offense wins you more games, and Cards look better setup TBH. As you say, they also get the top pick, thus adding a stud somewhere, and Bosa looks a top 3 guy. I also prefer Rosen to Darnold, esp given his development this yr.

Bronx are only a QB short TBH, but they are super important and very hard to find. Elway is a giant pest and i think makes the job a little tougher and less attractive.

Jets have always had board issues, and im not on the roster at all. Too much work to do.

Daylight = AGREED
Cincy should be a better gig than given credit, BUT, you have a QB that cant decide if he is good or shiite, and this is infuriating. You have 1 or 2 boneheads on D, esp in the LB core to manage. And a losing/ choking culture at the club. Not to mention a really really tough Div.

Buccs suck. But their offense was actually pretty good this yr despite the 2 QBs and their issues - though, this should be manageable, as they did for parts of the year. I love Evans, in a better team, he is a much more notable player. Just get some pieces on D and you might be able to compete. Very tough ask, and therefore a tough gig.

Phins... are you looking to retire to the sun? This is the job for you! Players do it, why not coaches? Ooph, youd be a sucker for punishment to take this on.
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by thedevilingreen »

Pigman wrote:extremely patient owners.
They've had 3 HC since 1969... Chuck Noll (19069-1991, 21 years), Bill Cowher (1992-2006, 14 years) and Tomlin (2007-Present, 12 years)

Tomlin would be given at least one more year to right the ship
Yeah but he isn't going to have brown next year that dude is out the door

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

thedevilingreen wrote: January 3, 2019, 7:35 pm
Pigman wrote:extremely patient owners.
They've had 3 HC since 1969... Chuck Noll (19069-1991, 21 years), Bill Cowher (1992-2006, 14 years) and Tomlin (2007-Present, 12 years)

Tomlin would be given at least one more year to right the ship
Yeah but he isn't going to have brown next year that dude is out the door

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It very much looks that way, he's creating a REAL problem and they've dealt with guys like this before (Santonio Holmes) and shipped them out
Juju is a stud too so they'll feel pretty good about going forward with him

Con - the cap hit to trade/release Brown vs keeping is almost identical... he would be a 21mil dead cap hit if they traded or released him. He would cost 22m to keep. So it would only free up 1 mil in cap space

Pro - Money/Cash wise it would save the owner 15m in cash spend this year. They could move him, get a cheap, cost controlled contract back for him and then the owner who's already dolled out the gtd portion of his deal is saving 15m in pay roll.

Also they're rolling over 14.5mil from the Bell franchise tag that never got used.... so that certainly gives the flexibility to move on if they want. VERY interesting situation
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by zim »

As a neutral sports ball fan with no NFL knowledge I've genuinely enjoyed reading all the back and forth the last few years. Keep it up guys :)
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Botman »

One of my favourite gambling degenerates asked me to do a little write up for the wildcard weekend and being the married with kids bum that i am, i felt obliged to help a brother out...

Care of Donny, my wildcard weekend gambling thoughts!
Odds and prices are care of SportsBet as of this morning

IND Colts @ HOU Texans
IND +1.0 / $1.99 H2H
HOU -1.0 / $1.86 H2H
Total: 48.0


This should be a really good game. Usually this first game is some nondescript wildcard team limping in to be fed to a #3 seed wolf at home. The Bengals owned this slot and some Brock/TJ Yates/Bortles level QB's have graced our screens previously. This year, we get Luck and Watson. Banger.
Two really good teams. Explosive offences. Shaky defences with a couple of play makers on each side. This'll be fun. I think the game comes down to how the Texans handle TY Hilton and how the Colts handle Watt and Clowney.
For me i think the Texans are correctly narrow favourites and this is a game im flip flopping on in terms of the winner. I think im settled on picking the Colts. The line is +/- 1 so the books think this is a toss up game, home teams usually get 3 points built in, so the books are telling you think the Colts are the better team. I agree with that, i think they're better overall and i think they'll win a very close game. I think TY Hilton and Andrew Luck are going to dominate this game on offence and i think the Colts play really hard on D and can make just enough plays.

Colts win 30-27 on Luck 2 minute drill FG drive.
I'd bet the Colts on the MONEY line, i'd bet the OVERS 48.0 and a couple of props i like:
- if you think the Colts are going to win, take SB's Luck OVER 296.5 yards... hard to imagine the Colts winning unless Luck is on fire. So bet that into another prop you like, maybe Ebron/Mack/TY (your pick) TD anytime.
- if you like the Texans, and i've spent time this week in that spot, i think the play is Hopkins over 100 rec/HOU win double which is paying $3.60, again, if the Texans are to win, Hopkins is going to need to have a big day out imo.

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SEA Seahawks @ DAL Texans
SEA +2.5 / $2.06 H2H
DAL -2.5 / $1.80 H2H
Total: 42.5


Another banger. Hot tip. I'll be saying this every game. They're all **** GREAT. This one pits two teams who are trying to play the same way. They want to bang you on the ground and hit you for big plays with mobile QB's on play action/boot concepts. Really interesting game, and another tight one. Again we're seeing a home team getting less than 3 which tells you the books think Seattle are SLIGHTLY better.

Both of these teams are pretty good D's. Demarcus Lawrence, Vander Esch and the front 7 on Dallas is legit. And i think the same can be said for Frank Clark, Bobby Wags. The battles between Zeke/Bobby Wags and LVH/Carson is going to be **** cool. Those are big thumping backs going against really good instinctive LBs. The coaching and QB advantage here clearly favours SEA and that's why i think they'll win.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Im an eagles fan, i hate Dallas, i hate the Clapper as a coach and i think Dak Prescott actually low stink STINKS. So i may not be coming from a pure place on this.

I've got Seattle winning 24-21.
For the betting, i wouldnt touch the total. It looks SPOT on to me. If i had to play it, i'd take the unders. I think i would take SEA on the money line because i think if they lose, it's going to be a FG game so the +2.5 isn't going to help you. Take the extra odds on the money line. I typically dont play dogs unless im getting +3 or more.
The bet i really like is the Tri Bet 2 on SportsBet, either team by 3 or less @ $4.00 and i like Dak Prescott to go OVER 16.5 rushing yards... this is a play off game, this isnt time for preservation. Dak will run some read option keepers.


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LA Chargers @ BAL Ravens
LAC +3.0 / $2.28 H2H
BAL -2.5 / $1.66 H2H
Total: 42.0


Two teams who played each other only a few weeks ago, BAL got the biccies then and the books are expecting them to do it again. For me though, this Ravens team is really hard to prepare for. No other offence OR defence is a unorthodox as they are. Which is a MAJOR advantage in a one game season, which is what the play offs are... but the LAC got a reeeal good look at them only a few weeks ago. I think that balances that out a bit.

Thing i like here is that the LAC played terribly on that day and still almost won. The Ravens were great, carved out a win and probably go into this game thinking they can just do what they did last time and get a W. LAC knows what they're going to get now, they can make the adjustments. Rivers gets a second crack at this defence now with a little history. I like those edges in this.

Chargers WIN 26-24 in another VERY close game that comes down to the last drive.
For gambling purposes. I'd take the Chargers +3, because i like the FG difference there, and i think if i dont win the game, i got a chance to get it with the spread or at least push. I dont feel confident enough in this to take the money line. I want those 3 points. The total i think goes over 42 and i think betting that makes sense but it's far from a sure bet.
You want a nice easy way to win some money... go to SB, Win Big/Win Little. Put a $100 on BOTH LAC and BAL to win by 1-13. You'll get $2.97 and $2.69 respectively. So you'll lay down $200 to win either $269 or near $300... i think that's a super safe bet that'll give you profit. Obviously if you feel strongly about either team, just bet it one way and take your chances.


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PHI Eagles @ CHI Bears
PHI +6.5 / $3.25 H2H
CHI -6.5 / $1.36 H2H
Total: 41.5


What disrespect! Get the dog masks out, Lane! The SB MVP, and reigning champs are GETTING nearly a touchdown! NO ONE BELIEVES IN BIG DICK NICK!
Alright enough of that, obviously you all know im an eagles fan. My thoughts on this can't possibly be unbiased but i'll give it a shot anyways.
This game comes down to Mack and Cox imo. Who creates the most disruption. Mack can wreck a game, and he's getting to Foles early and often, this game is OVER. Like forget about it, the bears will romp them.

BUUUUUUT... that's Lane Johnson at the RT spot who's at worst, the 2nd best RT in the league. And Jason Peters, who is old, but a no doubt first ballot HOF LT on the other side, and he's shown this year he can still get it done. So if those guys hold up against Mack, and BDN gets time, i dont think this Bears defence is so good that the eagles cant make some plays... and conversely if Fletcher Cox is the best defensive player on the field, as he was against the Rams when Aaron Donald was on the other side.. if Fletcher Cox is destroying the bears interior line and forcing Trubisky, who is NOT a good QB into some bad plays... the Eagles can absolutely win this game.
There is a path here.

Interesting little football nerd thing to this game... the Bears are probably the best zone defence we've seen in recent years. Just a stunningly good zone defence, the way they disguise their coverage, pass off players... it's really cool. Their dudes play such sound disciplined defence and know their responsibilities. It's fun... The Eagles, with Nick Foles and Doug Pederson, are IMO, the best HC/QB combination in the league at attacking zone defences, they have really good zone beaters. They understand the concepts well and scheme exceptionally against it. This is strength on strength, so the play calling aspect here is going to be, what i love most about the NFL. It's a chess match of play calls.

Betting wise... i mean the Bears are heavy favourites for a reason. They are the better team based on this season, they are at home. You should probably bet them to win, and maybe even to cover, if Mack shows up and dominates this could be a 31-14 sort of game.

But **** it man, FLY EAGLES FLY! Big Dick Nick is going INTO SOLDIER FIELD and he's going to win the damn game. Eagles win 30-21. Betting wise, play the overs, it's too low.
If you like CHI, take them 13+ and get the extra cash, i think if they win it'll be a blow out.
If you like Philly, Alshon Jeffrey over 75yards/Eagles win is paying $6.50 and that's tasty.

-----------

An exotic bet i like to, ignoring my pro eagles rant above is a teaser... teasers are where you take the line and add 6 points to your side... so say the Colts getting +1.0, in a teaser, you get them at +7.0. The magic numbers here are you want to tease through 3 and 7... so bring favourites under -3 / -7 or bring teams over +3 / +7
The NFL game is made to be 3 or 7 point games. Obviously the odds come down

3 team teaser that i like that nets you just over $2.00 odds (so double your money)

CHI -0.5 / LAC+9 / SEA +8.5
So we've brought the bears into basically a H2H game, all they gotta do is win. LAC and SEA get beyond a TD, and as a nice little bonus, you'll get more than 8 too, this means you're somewhat insulated from 2 point/missed PAT Bull too.
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Matt
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Matt »

IMO,
Texans win. Hopkins is destroying CBs this yr. Its just not fair. Watt is starting to get home too. I think that Colts OL is about to meet its match.

Everyone knows im a Cowboys fan, but they will also likely know that Im rarely confident about this team, and TBH, that starts with the coach. He is a deadset dopey puppet. Clap all u want chump, u r propped up by a DC who is worth twice his weight in gold, and who got a bunch of nobodies to the playoffs a couple of yrs ago, now he has some prime beef. Not to mention a running back who is an out and out HOF candidate. This is totally the sort of game we find a way to cock up, and with Brett Maher ability to miss from point blank, ill all but bet we lose by 3 or less. HOWEVER, if we win... i feel it will be a Saints like total shutdown game.

Id really like to see Rivers win a SB, I really would. But i dont see it. I think Ravens play some weird footy that is hard to matchup against. They Blitz more than anyone, but its not always the front 7. They actually run the ball a heap too, despite the threat of Jackson. Adjusted or not, its a 1 off and the Ravens have been good, i like them.

The final game is 100% about QB pressure. Foles can certainly stand up to it more than Trubisky, but Foles doesnt have the same overall quality D. This game is made for Mack. Its what he was bought in to do. I suspect he has a day, Peters and Lane will just have a front row seat to watch him do his thing.
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the bone
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Colts up 14-0 at the end of the 1st. Colts with two long drives, each for a touchdown. Texans with a 3-and-out and then Watson threw a pick on a 4th-and-four


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the bone
John Ferguson
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NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Now Luck gets picked off following a J.J. Watt tip. Texans ball on their own 15 yard line


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John Ferguson
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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Texans 3 and out


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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Sossman »

**** are the texans doing. This game is awful.

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Luck leads another long drive for a touchdown. Colts up 21-0, 6:24 left in the 2nd


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Re: NFL Thread

Post by Sossman »

Ooof.Image

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Re: NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

4th and 1 in the end zone, Texans call a pass play and Watson throws a bad pass to Hopkins. Turnover on downs


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NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

21-0 to the Colts at the half


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Re: NFL Thread

Post by gerg »

It's actually nice to see Luck doing well. He has been so 'un'Lucky with injuries and/or surrounded by players not quite good enough. Hope he goes on a bit of a run here.

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the bone
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NFL Thread

Post by the bone »

Yeah Luck is a great QB to watch. 2nd most TDs for the year and obvious choice for comeback player of the year. Colts have a load of cap space plus an additional 2nd round pick in the draft so they are set up nicely for the next couple of years


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