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yeh raiders
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » March 13, 2019, 11:24 am

Warwick Farm Race 3, Horse 2 - Evening Slippers.

Exceptionally bred, good form out of her first race and has an experience edge over the majority of the field.

If she parades well I think $2.50 ($2.75 SportsBet Powerplay) is good value.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » March 13, 2019, 1:54 pm

Hope someone got on it...

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by roneel78 » March 13, 2019, 2:33 pm

Thank you got on at $2.80 x $50.



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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » March 13, 2019, 4:25 pm

Nice, good stuff

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 17, 2019, 4:02 pm

Spring carnival getting to the pointy end. Caulfield Cup on Saturday is as open as any I've seen. The more analysis I do the harder it gets. Thinkings about getting one of the kids to pick one by name or pretty colours.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 18, 2019, 7:37 am

Northern Raider wrote:
October 17, 2019, 4:02 pm
Spring carnival getting to the pointy end. Caulfield Cup on Saturday is as open as any I've seen. The more analysis I do the harder it gets. Thinkings about getting one of the kids to pick one by name or pretty colours.
But tomorrow is Everest Day ? :D

In all seriousness, how Prince of Arran hasn’t qualified is very surprising, though they’re probably aiming for the Melb Cup anyway.

I like Finche ftw and Wolfe a smokey.

Pierata a solid E/W for the Everest.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 18, 2019, 11:43 am

Yeah, I think the Everest is a better quality race than the Caulfield Cup. It's really starting to draw more attention. Combine that with the Caulfield Cup being diminished as a guide to the Melbourne Cup there's no great surprise.

Pierata a huge chance. Sanata Ana Lane hardes to beat. Think those 2 have it between them.

Finche is a safe pick for the CC. You know he's going to be somewhere in the finish. Prefer him at Flemington though. Japanese horse Mer de Glace has excellent form for this. Barrier is a concern. Not sure what tactics they employ.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by manbearpig » October 19, 2019, 3:28 pm

YES YES YES
Im just, bicking back being bool

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 19, 2019, 3:52 pm

Sincere apologies to connections of Santa Ana Lane. My bet got you horse beat. :(
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 19, 2019, 4:25 pm

My dart landed on the right horse in the Caulfield Cup. Settled on Mer De Glace and went for it. Also had Mirage Dancer each way.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman » October 19, 2019, 4:48 pm

Haha sure you did, Keno
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by gangrenous » October 19, 2019, 5:08 pm

manbearpig wrote:YES YES YES
I’ll have what manbearpig’s having

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman » October 19, 2019, 5:23 pm

When Harry met gangy
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 19, 2019, 6:24 pm

NR you’re a gun

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 3, 2019, 7:27 pm

Surely the 57.5kg will take the edge off Cross Counter this year?

Is it just me or is this the weakest Melbourne Cup field in a little while?

Doesn’t appear to be too many top class horses.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 3, 2019, 10:47 pm

It’s doing my head in trying to work out the form in this race. Inconsistent performances of the overseas horses mean do you take their best runs or their poorer ones as a guide? The lines keep chopping and changing. Might be a case of which hits their straps on the day and who can tell which that will be.

Caulfield Cup looked quite weak but there were some nice cup trials in there. How will that form compare to others? Throw in the uncertainty about track condition and it gets even harder.

Whenever I begin to settle on a couple I have another look and start 2nd guessing. Maybe it’s staring me right in the face and Mer De Glace will dominate like he did at Caulfield.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 4, 2019, 3:33 pm

Finche into equal favouritism with Mer De Glace drifting out to $8.

I can’t go away from the Japanese runner. Looks the obvious choice.

But as usual, I’ll pick 4 or so horses including a light weight.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty » November 4, 2019, 5:21 pm

I had quite the weekend on the punt at the Golden Eagle...
Backed 7 winners a 3rd and a last from 9 races...


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2019: 1. Wighton 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Oldfield (Rapana) 6. Williams 7. Sezer 8. Sutton 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Papalii 11. Tapine 12. Whitehead 13. J.Bateman ----
14. Havili 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Lui

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 4, 2019, 6:12 pm

Possible wet track and step up to 2400 putting a few red flags against Mer De Glace.

I've written up my preview but not settled on the top 4. I'll post later tonight when I get home again. Having to write off a few that could win with little surprise.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » November 4, 2019, 8:53 pm

Leaning towards Cross Counter

Twilight Payment as a roughie

This is on the basis it rains, my formula of looking for anything with soft and heavy form and form at distance did very well in the early races last year

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 4, 2019, 9:23 pm

2019 Melbourne Cup form guide

So after plenty of form study, video reviews, guessing, seconnd guessing and a bit of third guessing here is my 2019 Melbourne Cup Preview.

1 – CROSS COUNTER (Charlie Appleby) W.Buick (5) 57.5kg
Took out this race last year as a 3yo and sees a decent weight jump this year. Partly because no age allowance now and partly re-handicapped. He franked his Cup win with victory in the Dubai Gold Cup against a decent field. His subsequent runs back home in UK were decent without being outstanding. Tough task carrying top weight here although you could argue its the easiest field he's seen since the Cup last year and he's not giving that much away to the opposition. We know he has the class, can run the distance and handles travel. Plenty to like at $14.00.

2 – MER DE GLACE (Hishashi Shimizu) D.Lane (2) 56kg
Japanese stayer who blew them away in the Caulfield Cup. Interesting that he's not regarded as a Group 1 class horse at home yet he dominated at that level here. So does that tell us he's underrated or what the quality of the Caulfield Cup lacking? Untested at the distance and possible wet track could work against him. Serious chance treated with caution as a betting prospect due to his $6.50 favourite tag.

3 – MASTER OF REALITY (Joseph O’Brien) F.Dettori (1) 55.5kg
Only significant win to date was a Group 3 in Ireland and only has 1 placing at Group 1 level so not sure how he ends up with 55.5kg here. Maybe it reflects the lack of depth in this field. That said, his G1 placing was a 3rd in the Ascot Gold Cup behind Stradivarius so it's good form and distance won't be an issue. 3rd at The Curragh 4L behind other Cup runners Southern France and Downdraft was OK. He'll go forward and should be in the race a long way. May see a few go past him late.

4 – MIRAGE DANCER (Busuttin/Young) B.Melham (13) 55.5kg
Carried solid UK form into the Caulfield Cup and ran accordingly to finish a nice 3rd. I had him identified as a good 2400m horse so not convinced the rise to 3200m will suit. Top 10 chance yes. Happy to leave him out of the potential winners list.

5 – SOUTHERN FRANCE (Maher/Eustace) M.Zahra (14) 55.5kg
Very good form in UK around 2800m. His 2 goes beyond that he's been beaten 9-10L. Most recent was the Goodwood Cup over 3200m behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee with Cross Counter 2L 3rd. 2 runs since at the Curragh for a win in the St Leger Trial ahead of Downdraft and Master of Reality then 3rd in the Irish St Leger. His form reads well. I just question him at a tough 3200m.

6 – HUNTING HORN (Aidan O’Brien) S.Heffernan (11) 55kg
Interesting runner as he's been used primarily as a pacemaker in Group 1 WFA races overseas. Makes his overall form hard to judge as he was acting the bunny for the world's best horses. Got a chance to race for himself in the Moonee Valley Cup and won comfortably. Downdraft was 2nd and he won on Saturday so the form may be better than is credited. If he improves of that run then could be worth an each way spec bet.

7 – LATROBE (Joseph O’Brien) J.McDonald (22) 55kg
Came out last year and ran 2nd in the MacKinnon Stakes so showed he can handle the travel. Raced well in 2nd tier company back in UK then stepped up to Group 1 level in the Irish St Leger. He wasn't up to the grade that day beaten 5.5L. He's not hopeless but think a few others are better.

8 – MUSTAJEER (Kris Lees) D.Oliver (6) 55kg
Won the Ebor well and that race is one of the better guides to the Melbourne Cup for these visiting horses. His first run here was the Caulfield Cup where he ran home well only beaten 1.8L. Have to respect if he can improve off that run, which these visitors can do. I still prefer the runs of a couple others at Caulfield.

9 – ROSTROPOVICH (Lindsay Park Racing) D.Dunn (12) 55kg
Did OK in the Cup last year finishing 5th. Has stayed out here for another crack this year. His form doesn't look good enough however and he was well beaten in the Caulfield Cup last start. Hard to see him turning that around.

10 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT (Joseph O’Brien) H.Bowman (19) 55kg
Winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2800m 2 starts back. Then stepped up to Group 1 level in the Irish St Leger and like stablemate Latrobe he didn't measure up. I'll therefore put him in the same category and leave him out of the main chances while not writing him off.

11 – FINCHE (Chris Waller) K.McEvoy (4) 54kg
Caulfield Cup 5th was one of the better Cup trials in the lead up. He was wide without cover most of the way and stil hit the front at the 200m mark only to be swallowed up late. he was entitled to tire that day given the tough run. Also don't think he handled the tighter track being a big striding horse. Will appreciate the open spaces of Flemington more. Finished 4th in the Cup last year so showed he's up to the trip. He's one of the safer each way bets in the race as it's hard not to see him in the finish somewhere. Don't think he wants it too wet either.

12 – PRINCE OF ARRAN (Charlie Fellowes) M.Walker (8) 54kg
3rd in the race last year after solid lead up form. Went back to UK where he was just average. Comes back to Australia again and has a close 2nd at Caulfield followed by a win in the Geelong Cup. Fair to say this horse loves travelling to Australia. He's going just as well this time and only up 1kg on last year. Reasonable to assume he'll give a good sight again. Winning chance not so sure. Place bet definitely. A must include for any multiples.

13 – RAYMOND TUSK (Richard Hannon) J.Spencer (3) 54kg
He was the runner with the flashing lights on after the Ebor where he was 4th to Mustajeer. Settled near the back and was held up behind a wall of horses when the sprint came. Got clear too late and hit the line as good as any. That seems to be his pattern so may need a bit of luck, particularly with an inside gate. Prior start was in the Ascot Gold Cup. Well beaten as the distance and class was a bit beyond him. My biggest concern is in the gear changes with "synthetic hoof filler". Thats a bit of a warning sign that he may have had some hoof issues since arriving. If not for that I'd probably be backing him each way.

14 – DOWNDRAFT (Joseph O'Brien) J.Allen (15) 53.5kg
Good form coming through the grades in Europe. Had a couple of runs nice since arriving here with 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup and winning the Hotham on Saturday to earn his spot in the Cup. Form is OK. Big issue is this will be his 3rd run in 10 days. May have peaked a couple of days ago so have to pass on him here.

15 – MAGIC WAND (Aidan O’Brien) R.Moore (24) 53.5kg
Quality mare and a genuine Group 1 WFA horse (albeit not a winning one) in Europe. Has raced well against some of the best. Set the pace in the Cox Plate and fought on well to finish 4th. I feel that was their main target and the Cup run is an afterthought. Along with being a big query at the distance I can't include her in the chances.

16 – NEUFBOSC (Lindsay Park Racing) L.Nolen (23) 53.5kg
Had very good form in France last year and was transferred here with a long term goal of the Cup. His form since has been fairly ordinary looks like he's only making up the numbers.

17 – SOUND (Michael Moroney) J.Winks (10) 53.5kg
Been midfield in all the key lead up races. Beaten 5L in the Sydney Cup in the Autumn over 3200m and this is much harder. Hard to see him turning the tables.

18 – SURPRISE BABY (Paul Presuker) J.Childs (20) 53.5kg
Won the Adelaide Cup impressively earlier this year which booked his spot. Last start winner at Flemington over 2500m so he's going well. I think those form lines are a couple of rungs below this race. Could still give a sight.

19 – CONSTANTINOPLE (Lindsay Park Racing) J.Moreira (7) 52.5kg
He was the unlucky runner in the Caulfield Cup. Didn't get clear till too late and flashed to the line. He's a northern hemisphere 3yo and those have won the last 2 Cups so the profile is right. Question marks about his habits. A couple of his recent 2nds in UK he ducked in under pressure late. We didn't see that at Caulfield because he had the soft run and late sprint. After a tough 3200m and the long straight we may see those habits come up again. Might be one that looks the winner at the Clocktower but doesn't run true to the line. If he behaves himself then he's a massive chance.

20 – IL PARADISO (Aidan O’Brien) W.Lordan (17) 52.5kg
2nd of the NH 3yos. Won a handicap over 3200 at The Curragh then took on top competition when 3rd (1.3L) behind Stradivarius and De Ex Bee in the Lonsdale Cup. Back to 3yos in the Group 1 St Leger where he did the donkey work carting them up to the tearaway leader and finished 5th behind potential superstar in Logician. Forgive that run and he would be close to favourite. A great chance each way at 14.00 but the gatde is awkward.

21 – STEEL PRINCE (Anthony Freedman) B.Prebble (16) 52.5kg
Won his spot in the Cup by winning the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington in May. Surprise Baby was 2nd so form looked OK. He's been midfield in the lead up runs and beaten by some horses that are nowhere near winning at this level. Hard to say if they were sandbagging because he was already guaranteed a run in the Cup. Willing to say that he doesn't have the class to threaten here and may need to drop a couple of grades.

22 – THE CHOSEN ONE (Baker/Forsman) T.Clark (18) 52kg
Looked good winning the Herbert Power at Caulfield 3 runs back beating Prince of Arran. Runs since have been plain efforts in the Caulfield Cup and the Hotham last Saturday. Again may been just going through the motions in that last run as he was already secure in the Cup field. Even with that he still meets Prince of Arran 1.5kg worse here. Will pass on him.

23 – VOW AND DECLARE (Danny O’Brien) C.Williams (21) 52kg
Fairly light preparation for a local horse with only 2 lead up runs. Both were very good with a 1.6L 4th in the Turnbull then 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. Won the Tatts Cup at Eagle Farm over 3000m so distance doesn't appear to be an issue. Hard to fault the form. Biggest problem is the wide gate. If Williams can get a decent run there's no reason to think he won't be in the mix at the end.

24 – YOUNGSTAR (Chris Waller) T.Berry (9) 52kg
Finished 6th in the Cup last year. Form since has not been as good so don't see her going any better this year.

Summary:
Tough race when you have to leave out horses you believe can win it. So when in doubt keep it simple and back the best horse. So my final selections are –

1st Cross Counter
2nd Il Paradiso
3rd Finche
4th Prince of Arran
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by greeneyed » November 5, 2019, 1:22 pm

How embarrassing is this Melbourne Cup "ceremony". It's ridiculous!

Shouldn't they have got Daryl Braithwaite to sing "Horses"?
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 1:23 pm

Thanks NR! Happy punting folks!

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 1:24 pm

greeneyed wrote:
November 5, 2019, 1:22 pm
How embarrassing is this Melbourne Cup "ceremony". It's ridiculous!

Shouldn't they have got Daryl Braithwaite to sing "Horses"?
I can’t watch it.

Since the abysmal display on Cox Plate day where they totally butchered Horses, due to DB having a gutfull and not wanting to perform.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 2:08 pm

Went each way on Vow and Declare, Prince of Arran, Finch and Mer De Glacé.

Will take it!

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -PJ- » November 5, 2019, 2:18 pm

Who won ?
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
I am not an alcoholic, I'm a binge drinker lacking opportunity..

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 2:26 pm

Vow and Declare won. Brilliant race, lots of horses race exceptionally well and hit the line strong.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 2:57 pm

Official result following the upheld protest:

23. Vow and Declare
12. Prince of Arran
13. Il Paradiso
3. Master of Reality

Great to see an Aussie horse get up

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman » November 5, 2019, 3:00 pm

yeh raiders wrote:
November 5, 2019, 2:57 pm
Official result following the upheld protest:

23. Vow and Declare
12. Prince of Arran
13. Il Paradiso
3. Master of Reality

Great to see an Aussie horse get up
OUR PUNTER'S CLUB JUST GOT THAT TRIFECTA!!
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2019, 3:07 pm

Get **** Ricky! Well done

Looking at the times, doesn’t surprise me that an Aussie horse won or that about a dozen horses were sprinting to the line

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman » November 5, 2019, 3:12 pm

Haha that was the best protest ever, we didn't have Master of Reality in our boxed field.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty » November 5, 2019, 3:13 pm

yeh raiders wrote:
greeneyed wrote:
November 5, 2019, 1:22 pm
How embarrassing is this Melbourne Cup "ceremony". It's ridiculous!

Shouldn't they have got Daryl Braithwaite to sing "Horses"?
I can’t watch it.

Since the abysmal display on Cox Plate day where they totally butchered Horses, due to DB having a gutfull and not wanting to perform.
Danza was at Gosford Racecourse singing it the exact day


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14. Havili 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Lui

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 5, 2019, 3:47 pm

Good win by Vow and Declare but geez Il Paradiso was stiff. No shock the protest was upheld.

I didn't actually back the winner but collected well in the race simply because the 2nd and 3rd horse payed so much for the place.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead » November 6, 2019, 6:22 am

got the $5- sweep in the cup, better than NR's dartboard preview

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by manbearpig » November 6, 2019, 1:45 pm

The Rickman wrote:
November 5, 2019, 3:00 pm
yeh raiders wrote:
November 5, 2019, 2:57 pm
Official result following the upheld protest:

23. Vow and Declare
12. Prince of Arran
13. Il Paradiso
3. Master of Reality

Great to see an Aussie horse get up
OUR PUNTER'S CLUB JUST GOT THAT TRIFECTA!!

So.....you won, just short of 70K? :shock:
Im just, bicking back being bool

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