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Fuifui Bradbrad
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Fuifui Bradbrad » November 7, 2017, 2:27 pm

I boxed the 8 that NR suggested, and got the Trifecta!
Bet365 still appears to be calculating...
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 7, 2017, 2:31 pm

I needed to go with my 2nd 4 instead of my top 4

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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » November 7, 2017, 2:41 pm

Fuifui Bradbrad wrote:I boxed the 8 that NR suggested, and got the Trifecta!
Bet365 still appears to be calculating...
Bet void, rigged the system

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 » November 7, 2017, 3:23 pm

-TW- wrote:The favourite is a donkey for another year

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Really odd ride from Bowman tbf. Too far back in the Caulfield and way too far forward in the Cup.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 7, 2017, 3:58 pm

julian87 wrote:
-TW- wrote:The favourite is a donkey for another year

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Really odd ride from Bowman tbf. Too far back in the Caulfield and way too far forward in the Cup.
Yeah remember that year the favorite Admire Rakti had won the Caulfield coming from the back and then died after they ran him out in front in the Melbourne cup. Bizarre

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Fuifui Bradbrad » November 7, 2017, 5:14 pm

-TW- wrote:
Fuifui Bradbrad wrote:I boxed the 8 that NR suggested, and got the Trifecta!
Bet365 still appears to be calculating...
Bet void, rigged the system

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Nah they were just delayed in processing. $16 into $158. Thanks NR!
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I'm Bate Man
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by I'm Bate Man » November 9, 2017, 2:31 pm

I had a cracker of a cup day! ImageImage


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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » November 9, 2017, 6:58 pm

**** nice Jason. I saw just before the race that there was someone who put $40k on Rekindling

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bonehead
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead » November 10, 2017, 12:17 pm

mate has one going around today, stitch up prep so far.
sr3 no.5

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I'm Bate Man
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by I'm Bate Man » November 10, 2017, 2:49 pm

Manchild wrote:**** nice Jason. I saw just before the race that there was someone who put $40k on Rekindling
Absolutely no skill involved, some muppet on the channel 7 coverage was talking g about Rekindling that morning and it was good enough for me! Haha


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Northern Raider
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » December 9, 2017, 8:26 am

I've got one running at Doomben today. R9 no5 PRIVLAKA. Pretty confident he will make it back to back wins. $5.00 was available this morning and I expect he'll come in from that.

I have 2 others at Doomben and both nice each way chances at around the $9.00 mark.
R4 no11 CUSHION PINK
R8 no2 HOPFGARTEN
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » December 9, 2017, 10:16 am

Cheers NR.

I have backed Jungle Edge at Pakenham Race 5

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » December 9, 2017, 12:11 pm

Yeah, plenty tipping Jungle Edge. Even with the big weight he should still be too good for these.

Another couple are Rosehill R2 no4 STAR SENSATION and Pakenham R8 no1 BURNING FRONT. All 3 in a multi is nice odds.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » December 9, 2017, 12:12 pm

Doomben R2 #8 Contralto

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » December 9, 2017, 5:53 pm

Northern Raider wrote:I've got one running at Doomben today. R9 no5 PRIVLAKA. Pretty confident he will make it back to back wins. $5.00 was available this morning and I expect he'll come in from that.

I have 2 others at Doomben and both nice each way chances at around the $9.00 mark.
R4 no11 CUSHION PINK
R8 no2 HOPFGARTEN
Nice one NR. Got on Privlaka @ $3.90

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dr Zaius » June 16, 2018, 12:15 pm

I'm at the GC races today. Any tips?
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW » June 16, 2018, 1:28 pm

Moonee Vallley R3 no 5
Ipswich R8 no 4
Morphetville R2 no 3
Rosehill R4 no 2
Mooned valley R6 no 4

All pretty short but should keep the bank balance rolling

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW » June 16, 2018, 1:30 pm

Watch Mooney Valley if the leaders keep winning then load up on Sam’s image in the 10th

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW » June 16, 2018, 1:33 pm

Oh and ignore the fact that I posted a tip that had already lost in Mooney Valley and Morphetville....Get on the rest I can’t lose all day!

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dr Zaius » June 16, 2018, 2:11 pm

RTW wrote:Oh and ignore the fact that I posted a tip that had already lost in Mooney Valley and Morphetville....Get on the rest I can’t lose all day!
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 9, 2018, 12:21 pm

Thank God for the uproar regarding a 10 minute light show on the Opera house.. otherwise I would’ve totally skipped the race altogether!

But in all seriousness...

There will be plenty of pace on and with dodgy weather predicted, I think a horse out of the fire fight up front who can perform on a heavier track, will prevail.

I’m on Shoals.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2018, 11:22 am

Will we get a traditional, highly appreciated form guide from Northern Raider?

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid » November 5, 2018, 11:36 am

yeh raiders wrote:
November 5, 2018, 11:22 am
Will we get a traditional, highly appreciated form guide from Northern Raider?
I sure hope so.. NR's tips have been gold, particularly the Almandian/Heartbreak City year
from memory Julian was on Heartbreak City from very early too

(I suppose I can excuse NR for that one time the horse he suggested was winning until it carked it)
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2018, 11:49 am

That was Admire Rakti.

I blame the jockey/trainer for that, why was the horse front running (having won the Caulfield Cup as a backmarker).... absolutely ridiculous ride.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 5, 2018, 12:27 pm

Preview will be up tonight.

Yeah, Admire Ratki not my fondest memory of the Cup. Last year was actually my most frustrating. Had it narrowed down to 7 horses. Of those I got the first 3 home and didn't back any of them. :roll:

This year I think the Euro visitors are streets ahead of the locals. Challenge is working out which ones.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2018, 5:26 pm

Thanks NR!

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 5, 2018, 6:06 pm

2018 Melbourne Cup Preview

Here's my summary on each runner for the 2018 Melbourne Cup.

Big watch on the weather for this year. Quite a firm track on Derby Day and there are showers forecast for the next day or so in Melbourne. If the rain hits we could have a wet track, if it misses and they haven't put much water on due to the forecast then it could end up quite firm again. I'd like to see a Soft 5 to give most horses a chance. Just have to wait and see.

1. BEST SOLUTION (IRE) Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor Jockey: Pat Cosgrave Barrier: 6 Weight: 57.5kg
Highly rated horse from Godolphin's European operation. Won at Group 2 level at Newmarket in July followed by back to back Group 1 wins in Germany. Came out here an won the Caulfield Cup making it four straight wins over 2400m. His win at Caulfield was full of merit as he missed the kick then ran around the field to settle 4th. Flushed out early then toughed it out to hold off Homesman and Cliffsofmoher. While the slow tempo helped his cause, it was still a very good effort. What works against him is carrying top weight here. A kg or two can really make a difference over 2400m. Can win again if he keeps up his form.

2. THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 9 56.5kg
Solid form in Europe and had two lead up runs here. First up fourth in the Caulfield Stakes behind Benbatl was an excellent Cups trial. He was sent out one of the fancied runners in the Caulfield Cup the following week. Tempo worked against him a bit and was a highly credible third. Not really tested past 2400m so distance is a query. By Galileo from a Dansili mare so breeding suggests 3200m isn't beyond him. Good odds but can he turn the tables on Best Solution?

3. MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) Ian Williams Corey Brown 17 56kg
Bit of a late bloomer. Nothing special about his UK performances in recent years then in 2018 he's blown away his opposition with six length wins in both the Chester Cup and the Group 3 King Henry at Sandown. Must have changed his feed or something because he's on fire now. Not raced since May which is a query. Havre to take his current form on face value and he's a red hot chance.

4. CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) Yoshito Yahagi Yuga Kawada 4 55.5kg
Japanese visitor who was going OK at home then ran a bit of a shocker in the Caulfield Cup at his first run here. He did race a bit wide but compounded very quickly when the pressure came on. Can't take him on that run.

5. MUNTAHAA (IRE) John Gosden Jim Crowley 13 55.5kg
The 2018 Ebor Handicap winner, which is a race I've always like the form out of for the Cup. He would have been one of the most impressive winners in recent memory too. Showed an outstanding turn of foot to burst clear and win by a widening 3.5 lengths in fast time. He beat Weekender in that race who ran third in the Irish St Leger at his next start. Keen on his chances. Doesn't want it too wet though.

6. SOUND CHECK (GER) Michael Moroney Jordan Childs 16 55.5kg
German horse now with Mike Moroney in Melbourne. Has some good form around Best Solution in Europe, running second to him at Group 1 level. Prior to that won a Group 2 over 3200m then third in a Group 3 dropping back to 2000m. Debut here in the Caulfield Cup looked ordinary on paper. Was back last and left flat footed when they sprinted. Ran home only fairly into 12th. I'm not convinced they were trying that hard either and may have been giving him a conditioning run. Step up to 3200m and a most solid tempo will help his cause here. All things considered he's one roughie that could surprise.

7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Ben Melham 18 55.5kg
Old campaigner back for another go as a 10yo. No queries about him running the distance and his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup shows he still has something to give. He won't finish in the placings but you can pack him for the Top 10 finish.

8. ACE HIGH David Payne Tye Angland 22 55kg
Star 3yo stayer of last season looked well on track to deliver in the Caulfield Cup. Got an easy lead there and had every hope. Unfortunately failed to deliver. Do you forgive him that one bad run? Will he get the 3200m? I'm saying 'no' to both.

9. MARMELO (GB) Hughie Morrison Hugh Bowman 10 55kg
One of the favourites in last year's Cup after flying home in the Caulfield Cup. Raced handy, hit the lead on the corner then weakened last furlong in what was a disappointing run. Went back to Europe and raced four times for two wins and two seconds. Arguably in better form this year and connections made the call to target the Cup first up here. His overseas form and Caulfield Cup run last year make him a serious contender if you're willing to forgive last year's failure.

10. AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings Glyn Schofield 11 54.5kg
Godolphin import trained by James Cummings. Was unbeaten in four Australian starts till finishing fourth behind Winx in the Cox Plate. Qualified for the Melbourne Cup by winning the Group 3 Bart Cummings over 2500m at Flemington. Just held off Jaameh that day and I feel he was at his limit distance wise. Talent galloper who may find the two mile beyond him.

11. YUCATAN (IRE) Aidan O'Brien James McDonald 23 54.5kg
Current favourite after winning the Herbert Power in a run that you had to see to believe. Raced wide then bolted clear to win easily. Jockey was pulling him up on the line which made the margin smaller than it should have been. Form has been franked after the place getters that day finished first and second in the Lexus Stakes last Saturday. Form in Europe was reasonable prior. He's not raced beyond 2400m so there always a distance query. Never know until they try.

12. AUVRAY (FR) Richard Freedman Tommy Berry 1 54kg
Former French galloper been in Australia for a quite a while now. Placed in Newcastle Cup three runs back then comfortably beaten next two starts in Sydney. Only making up the numbers here.

13. FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Zac Purton 15 54kg
Was going OK behind some good horses in Europe without really threatening. Dropped in class a bit to win at Group 3 level in France over 2500m. Transferred to Chris Waller stable her and first up a solid third in the Geelong Cup. Not the worst in the race but I think others are better.

14. RED CARDINAL (IRE) Darren Weir Damien Oliver 5 54kg
Only runner for Australia's biggest stable. Hard to recommend on recent form. Well beaten in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Third in the AJC St Leger before that in what was a fairly weak field. Not good enough.

15. VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) Michael Moroney Patrick Moloney 2 54kg
Another runner for Mike Moroney. Honest toiler who is unplaced in six runs this year. Well beaten in the Caulfield Cup and won't be turning that around.

16. VENTURA STORM (IRE) David and B Hayes and T Dabernig Mark Zahra 7 54kg
He was progressing OK in the lead up races. Hit the line well behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes then not much luck in the Caulfield Cup. Bounced back with a good win in the Moonee Valley Cup last week. He's not hopeless here but I don't think Moonee Valley Cup form is good enough and also don't like that he's running three consecutive weeks.

17. A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 20 53kg
Decent staying form in UK then on debut here was second best run of the race when placed behind Yucatan in the Herbert Power. Delivered the goods on Saturday with a strong performance to win the Lexus Stakes and book his spot here. Will have no problem with the distance and form reads very well. My concern is the three day back up after a tough run on the firm track. Wouldn't be surprised if he ran well but I'm happy to risk leaving him out.

18. NAKEETA (GB) Iain Jardine Regan Bayliss 3 53kg
Won the 2017 Ebor Handicap then ran a very good fifth in last year's Cup. Form since back home has been very poor. Can't include him this year based on that.

19. SIR CHARLES ROAD Lance O'Sullivan and Andrew Scott Dwayne Dunn 14 53kg
Kiwi visitor. They always used to command respect crossing the ditch for the Cup. Not here unfortunately. Third in the Bendigo Cup last start is a long way off the class of this race.

20. ZACADA (NZ) Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman Damian Lane 24 53kg
Second in the Sydney Cup earlier this year behind Who Shot Thebarman so no distance worry. Realistically though he's not good enough to be challenging here. Previous two starts was well beaten in the Geelong Cup and the Bart Cummings.

21. RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 12 52kg
The likely leader in the race and did that all the way to win the Geelong Cup last start and earn a spot. It is a tough ask to lead all the way in the Melbourne Cup unless you're Might and Power. This horse is not Might and Power.

22. YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Craig Williams 8 51.5kg
Favourite for the Caulfield Cup and really had no chance there when they got back near last with the slow tempo. She still hit the line well to finished midfield, running the some of the best closing sectionals. You can forgive that run if you backed her. I didn't think the local form was as good as the European form so left here out of that race. Will do the same here but she could well prove me wrong.

23. CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy 19 51kg
A three year old by Northern Hemisphere time which is the same as Rekindling last year. That sees them get a decent weight pull of rivals. Seven starts for 4-2-0 is pretty good numbers. Group 3 winner at Goodwood in fast time then 2nd at Group 2 level in a strong form race at York. Form is excellent and he has a massive upside. Young horse makes the travel more of query. Also untested past 2400m. Good enough to win still.

24. ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 21 51kg
The other NH three year old in the race. Racing very well in Europe then first up in Australia was caught wide early before challenging for the lead in the Cox Plate. Only battled in the run home to finish fifth beaten a fair way behind Winx. He's a genuine talent and dropping back to handicap conditions sees him in with a feather weight here. I don't see him as genuine two miler though.

Summary:
Plenty I've been able to discard and narrow down the contenders. Gets very tough splitting them after that. I'm going with all the visitors.

Selections:
1. Magic Circle
2. Muntahaa
3. Marmelo
4. Yucatan

Respect for Best Solution, The Cliffsofmoher and Cross Counter. Speculative roughie is Sound Check.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » November 5, 2018, 6:37 pm

I am backing Muntahaa. That win with 61kegs on board was outstanding. It just pulled away on the straight.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 5, 2018, 8:49 pm

Legend NR.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid » November 6, 2018, 9:23 am

Alright then, I'm on Magic Circle and Muntahaa

Drew Yucatan in the office sweep
(they probably shouldn't leave the sheets showing which horses are left in each sweep for everyone to see..)
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Woodgers » November 6, 2018, 9:56 am

Thanks NR, appreciate it.

I took Avilius in the early markets before it won the Turnbull so I have to stick with that.

If it is to lose then I want Magic Circle to win it just for the celebration spectacle!
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » November 6, 2018, 11:21 am

Will be very heavy, currently a heavy 8

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 6, 2018, 2:12 pm

Had Cross Counter on the nose, knew a light weight had to be in the mix.

Thanks NR!

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 6, 2018, 5:03 pm

Thought Marmelo had it won. Cross Counter flew at the finish.

2 years in a row the NH 3yos have won.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by greeneyed » November 6, 2018, 5:09 pm

Thanks for your traditional preview NR.
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