Horse Racing

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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » October 21, 2017, 3:56 pm

Single gaze 2nd, Boom Time came from the clouds

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 » October 21, 2017, 4:44 pm

Marmelo was **** crunched in Cup betting in the 10 minutes after the Caulfield Cup and rightly so. Had Bowman managed to get a sit midfield today I have no doubt it would have won, and easily. Weaved through and once he finally got to the outside it flashed home. Looks like it'd do the extra 800 on its ear.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 21, 2017, 5:55 pm

I just needed Johannis to place as the last leg of my 7 leg multi. Was sweating bullets at the end.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Brewdle » October 22, 2017, 7:53 am

Northern Raider wrote:I don't see Single Gaze threatening. More of a miler than a 2400m horse.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 22, 2017, 9:00 am

Brewdle wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:I don't see Single Gaze threatening. More of a miler than a 2400m horse.

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there ya go eh, I know the owner, very happy camper
Just saying what I thought. I was surprised as any by the result. On paper the winner looked like it was just making up the numbers.

I had a very decent go each way on Lord Fandango so 4th was a painful result.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 22, 2017, 9:16 am

Mate of mine had $50 on the nose of Boomtime as well as Exacta and trifecta at 25%

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 » October 22, 2017, 9:23 am

Manchild wrote:Mate of mine had $50 on the nose of Boomtime as well as Exacta and trifecta at 25%
Fair dinks
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 22, 2017, 9:32 am

Surprised by the result, given Boom Time and Single Gaze are bred to peek over much shorter distance.

Would never have picked them. But someone did say during the week, how weak this years CC field was.

The leader was genuinely swallowed on the turn, that was a frighteningly quick demise.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » October 22, 2017, 9:52 am

Manchild wrote:Mate of mine had $50 on the nose of Boomtime as well as Exacta and trifecta at 25%
Wow. Chuck in the fav for 3rd and my pick for 4th and could have got the $100k First 4.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 26, 2017, 9:33 pm

Thoughts on the Manikato tomorrow night?

Wayne Hawkes talking up Chautauqua as always. Vega Magic on Fire and has drawn well. Rock Magic asking for 1200m. In Her Time running a faster 1200m on Everest day, than Redzel...

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 26, 2017, 9:45 pm

yeh raiders wrote:Thoughts on the Manikato tomorrow night?

Wayne Hawkes talking up Chautauqua as always. Vega Magic on Fire and has drawn well. Rock Magic asking for 1200m. In Her Time running a faster 1200m on Everest day, than Redzel...
In Her Time was flying home. I will definitely have in my placings.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 27, 2017, 3:24 pm

Saturday tip. Mooney Valley Race 1 No. 10 Seabrook

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 27, 2017, 7:17 pm

Pumped for the race, if he jumps reasonably it's Vega Magic's to lose. $2.15 on the nose. I'll be looking for value elsewhere for a place

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 27, 2017, 8:26 pm

I think Rock Magic is the place value.

I really hope Chautauqua wins, but he Needs to be right on them coming out of the turn.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » October 27, 2017, 8:36 pm

Jesus, what a flop that was..

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 28, 2017, 10:04 am

No way was i backing a favorite with Williams on board. He has single handly butchered so many sure things this spring carnival. I had In Her Time to place and that was it in that race.

Ascot tip. Race 1 no. 7 Sonnen

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead » October 28, 2017, 10:05 am

HB NR, seems more appropriate in here

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 » October 28, 2017, 10:45 am

What a horrible Cox Plate field bar Winx.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Manchild » October 28, 2017, 10:46 am

julian87 wrote:What a horrible Cox Plate field bar Winx.
Royal Symphony to place is what i have backed.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » October 28, 2017, 4:06 pm

Great run from Humidor, pushed Winx to the post

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Woodgers » November 2, 2017, 10:39 am

NR, I need your urgent expert opinion.

I recently got drafted into a boys trip to Derby Day this weekend. The syndicate i'm in is pretty big and bragging rights are on the line. Got any of the good oil? Cheers.
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 6, 2017, 11:10 am

Woodgers wrote:NR, I need your urgent expert opinion.

I recently got drafted into a boys trip to Derby Day this weekend. The syndicate i'm in is pretty big and bragging rights are on the line. Got any of the good oil? Cheers.
Sorry mate, I was on a camping trip over the weekend. If its any consolation I backed the Derby winner. :)
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid » November 6, 2017, 11:23 am

Northern Raider wrote:
Woodgers wrote:NR, I need your urgent expert opinion.

I recently got drafted into a boys trip to Derby Day this weekend. The syndicate i'm in is pretty big and bragging rights are on the line. Got any of the good oil? Cheers.
Sorry mate, I was on a camping trip over the weekend. If its any consolation I backed the Derby winner. :)
will you be posting your Melbourne Cup tips soon NR?!
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 6, 2017, 11:38 am

Sid wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:
Woodgers wrote:NR, I need your urgent expert opinion.

I recently got drafted into a boys trip to Derby Day this weekend. The syndicate i'm in is pretty big and bragging rights are on the line. Got any of the good oil? Cheers.
Sorry mate, I was on a camping trip over the weekend. If its any consolation I backed the Derby winner. :)
will you be posting your Melbourne Cup tips soon NR?!
Will post my thoughts on the Cup tonight.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Woodgers » November 6, 2017, 12:08 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
Woodgers wrote:NR, I need your urgent expert opinion.

I recently got drafted into a boys trip to Derby Day this weekend. The syndicate i'm in is pretty big and bragging rights are on the line. Got any of the good oil? Cheers.
Sorry mate, I was on a camping trip over the weekend. If its any consolation I backed the Derby winner. :)
I'll let you off the hook this time NR, only because I backed it as well ;)

Not a bad day in the end, the syndicate backed 5/9 for the day, although we did have multiple picks in some races. $1800 for the day which paid for an awesome dinner and then some.

Onto the cup though. You've got a great track record with your selections NR!
We continue to **** about with blokes that are part of some fraternity. It's infuriating.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid » November 6, 2017, 12:09 pm

Northern Raider wrote:
Sid wrote:
will you be posting your Melbourne Cup tips soon NR?!
Will post my thoughts on the Cup tonight.
sweet, then I can pretend to know what I'm talking about around the office while winning fat stacks again :thumbsup
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty » November 6, 2017, 5:30 pm

Not that anyone gives a damn... I'm backing 6. Red Cardinal and 7. Johannes Vermeer
2019: 1. Wighton 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Oldfield (Rapana) 6. Williams 7. Sezer 8. Sutton 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Papalii 11. Tapine 12. Whitehead 13. J.Bateman ----
14. Havili 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Lui

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 » November 6, 2017, 7:54 pm

I've been saying Marmelo for a while, not changing.

Wicklow Brave is over the odds if it races at 60 odd to 1 though.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 6, 2017, 8:06 pm

Ace High was so impressive in the Derby. Tough run and still flew home.

Top 4 in no order I like Marmelo, Almandin, Wall of Fire and Big Duke

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders » November 6, 2017, 8:09 pm

Backing Shoals e/w at $8.50 saved me. Her mum was sold as a maiden winner for $1.9 million in foal to Shoals and has now won $1 mil herself

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider » November 6, 2017, 8:46 pm

2017 Melbourne Cup Preview

One look at the bookie's board tells you it's one of the most open Cups in many years. Even the favourites are around the $8-9 mark. Here's some thoughts on each runner.

1. HARTNELL - Last year he was arguably the second best horse in the country behind Winx. Finished third carrying 56kg. This year he's not going quite as well and goes up 1.5kg. Hard to see him winning based on that.

2. ALMANDIN - Won it last year with 52kg and rises to 56.5kg here. His first two runs this prep looked like he was going even better this year before a sub par effort in the Bart Cummings (the race he won prior to last year's Cup win) when fourth to Amelie's Star. I suspect that he might have been dialed back a touch for that run and have him primed now. If that’s the case he's a genuine chance of going back to back.
Dettori

3. HUMIDOR - a bit bi-polar this prep. Only one paced in his first couple of runs before blowing away a quality field over a mile at Flemington. Then was a touch disappointing when he failed to get past Ventura Storm for second behind Winx. Then had every hope in the Caulfield Cup, finishing fifth without really attacking the line. Dropped back to 2000m for the Cox Plate and ran a massive race pushing Winx right to the line. To me it all suggests he's better around the 1600m-2000m range. On his Caulfield Cup run I don't see him winning this.

4. TIBERIAN - French horse with excellent form. Won four of last five and has beaten some nice horses in Europe. Handicapper hasn't done him any favours however and is weighted up to his best. That coupled with barrier 23 makes his task tougher. I'm still keen to test him each way as his price looks well over the odds to me.

5. MARMELO - No doubt the eye catcher out of the Caulfield Cup. Settled near last and had to overcome a checkered passage before rattling home out wide to finish sixth. Not many horses made ground out wide that day so the run was enormous. I backed him that day and think they rode him 'dead' as a tune up for the Cup. I'd like to see him settle more midfield here and should be the one to beat.

6. RED CARDINAL - Purchased by Australian Bloodstock more than a year ago with a eye on the Cup. Bided their time for a tilt this year. Big win over this distance in a Group 3 at Belmont of a strong tempo. Only fair next start in the Prix Kergolay behind Marmelo but the slow pace early didn't suit him. This run saw him drift from early Cup favourite. Trainer also said he had a skin irritation which may have flattened him a touch. If this is a solidly run race (which I expect) then he should be hitting the line very hard. Problem is gate 24 means he might be too far back or caught wide. Defnitely worth an each way bet with odds around $21.00 available and don't leave him out of your multis.

7. JOHANNES VERMEER - Had some good form in Europe before arriving here including a Group 1 win as a youngster a couple of years ago. Both runs in Australia have been crackers. First up he flashed home for second in the Caulfield Stakes then backed up a week later for a solid third in the Caulfield Cup, having to change direction a couple of times in the run home. Plenty are questioning him at 3200m having never raced beyond 2400m. His breeding and his performances suggest that he should get the distance. He's the only other runner from the Caulfield Cup I give a chance (with Marmelo).

8. BONDI BEACH - Form in Europe has been solid but his runs in Australia have been very ordniary. Can't see him threatening at all.

9. MAX DYNAMITE - Was very unlucky not to win the 2015 Cup. Since heading back to Europe he sustained an injury which saw him out over a year. Been give a couple of soft runs back home before making the trip here. Thinking they have planned this a long way out and drops 1kg from his second in 2015. I would not be at all surprised to see him run a big race so keep him very safe.

10. VENTURA STORM - Came to Australia late last year with some excellent European credentals. Runs this year haven't been that exciting although he did put in a solid effort behind Winx in the Turnbull when holding off Humidor for second. Then put in a very plain run in the Caulfield Cup. Hard to see him bouncing back off that so will leave him out.

11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN - Scratched

12. WICKLOW BRAVE - Finished well down the field in last year's Cup. European form only fair this year. Didn't do much in the Caulfield Cup a couple of weeks ago. Can't recommend him on exposed form.

13. BIG DUKE - Impressive winner of the St Leger at Randwick two starts back. Then fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup where looked a touch disappointing. Not sure he liked the tight circuit there and was a bit cluttered up on the inside. Bigger stretches at Flemington will suit better. Could be one to surprised but won't carry any of my money.

14. US ARMY RANGER - Solid European form in 2016. Same can't be said for his 2017 form. No doubts about running the distance as he was third over 4300m a few starts back. Just not going well enough right now.

15. BOOM TIME - Not often you see the Caulfield Cup winner sent out at $34.00 in the Melbourne Cup. He had the perfect run that day on the biased track. Form out of the race has to be questioned. Goes up slightly in weight and has to be a query at the distance. Will overlook him.

16. GALLANTE - One of the six Lloyd Williams owned horses in the race. Going very poorly and really is no hope. Most believe he will be out to ensure a geuine tempo for Lloyd's better chances.

17. LIBRAN - Big odds and he's not hopeless. Think his best form was 18 months ago however. Solid second in the Moonee Valley Cup but I think that form is not up to this.

18. NAKEETA - Has been a consistent galloper in lower grade races in the UK. This culminated in a solid win in the Ebor, a race that has produced some good performances in the Cup including Heartbreak City last year. Have to respect that and think he will have a lot more behind him than in front at the finish. Maybe worth an each way bet at odds around $35.00.

19. SINGLE GAZE - Very tough effort to hold on for second in the Caulfield Cup after doing plenty of work early in the race. As mentioned earlier though, I'm dubious about the form out of the race given the track bias. 3200m may be a bridge too far for this honest mare.

20. WALL OF FIRE - He's a bit of a conundrum this horse. Put together plenty of strong performances in Europe. Went over to the U.S. where he may have done too much in a solid run 3200m at Belmont where Red Cardinal blew them away. Actually meets that horse 1kg worse here. No doubt he's done well since arriving as he put in an eye catcher when flying home for second in the Herbert Power at Caulfield several weeks ago. The winner Lord Fandango ran a big race in the Caulfield Cup. Give him a good each way chance on his best form.

21. THOMAS HOBSON - Good form over longer trips in Europe so no question he'll run the distance out. Concern is he might be a too one paced to win the Cup. I can see him running past a lot of tired horses late but not really being in the finish. Could be worth a place bet.

22. REKINDLING - Northern hemisphere three year old so is classified as a four year old here. Some excellent form in Europe and gets in with a nice light weight here. The question with these young horses is whether they are seasoned enough to handle the trip to Australia. Nobody really knows the answer to that until the whips are cracking in the straight.

23. AMELIE'S STAR - Had an excellent record beyond 2400m with three from three until blotting the copybook in the Caulfield Cup. Can forgive that run as she was ridden a lot closer than normal so never really relaxed in the run. For mares to win the Cup I think they need to be from the top shelf and I don't put Amelie's Star in that category.

24. CISMONTANE - Grabbed his spot at the last minute with a win in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday. Looked beaten on the turn there but kept fighting and eventually held them off. Can't question his toughness as he's been 'up' since June and has plenty of miles under the belt. Likes to lead and will make sure its a genuine staying test. Likely to still be kicking on when plenty behind are getting a stitch. Doesn't have the class to be winning. Big odds so may be worth a bet for a Top 5 or Top 10 finish.

Plenty with winning chances and a few more with rough hopes. Very hard to pin it down to a top 4 but here goes.

1. Marmelo
2. Red Cardinal
3. Almandin
4. Tiberian

Also give genuine chances to Johannes Vermeer, Max Dynamite, Wall of Fire, Rekindling.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by PigRickman » November 7, 2017, 7:55 am

Good **** NR!
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid » November 7, 2017, 8:21 am

With that I’ve gone
Almandin (ol’ faithful) win @ $11
Red Cardinal win @ $19 + picked in the office sweep
Tiberian place @ $8.50

Couple of cash backs in play
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by greeneyed » November 7, 2017, 1:34 pm

Victorians really do go on with a lot of bull when they present sporting events.
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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- » November 7, 2017, 2:08 pm

The favourite is a donkey for another year

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