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Northern Raider
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

It did deserve a much tougher suspension. Jockeys get 6 weeks for reckless riding when it causes a severe check. This caused a horse to fall and loses it's life and almost that of the jockey. About as serious a case as you would see.

Weak penalty.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 »

Yep I agree big time with the both of you.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW »

Wet tracks tomorrow, anyone got any mudlarks in mind?


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yeh raiders
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

RTW wrote: August 7, 2020, 10:30 pm Wet tracks tomorrow, anyone got any mudlarks in mind?


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I sucked the Saturday prior so I purposely stayed out of it this week. Heavy tracks are not kind to me.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW »

Anyone got any good mail for today’s racing?


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Northern Raider
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Don't bother backing Munce's horses ;)
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Looking at Randwick with some big races. Flight Stakes I like Dame Giselle. Don't see much tempo in the race and she has a better sprint than Hungry Heart.

Premiere Stakes I think Nature Strip is unders at 1.80 which makes Classique Legend good value at 3.00. Libertini a knock out chance if you want somethin at better odds.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Epsom is a raffle (as usual). Star of the Seas the class horse so should give you a sight. Races screams upset so wouldn't be putting the house on it.

Metropolitan I think Mirage Dancer is a great each way bet at 12.00
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Is anything going to challenge Nature Strip on speed? He tends to just bounce back from a poor run.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

I think Eduardo is a really handy pick for the MiRunners slot in the Everest.

Hasn’t won a big race yet, but he’s super consistent, lightly raced and handles soft/heavy ground.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Wowee... Nature Strip failure, Classique with a poor ride and Libertini explodes.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Nature Strip not come back as well IMO.

Backed the Epsom winner but Yulong Prince the place would have been a better result. Just nutted out.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

NR, you sir are a genius.

Thank you :clap:
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Mirage Dancer :)
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Stupid me left Libertini out of Quaddie :(
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Begbie »

Thank you again NR! Only had 10 each way but big odds! You have such a good tipping record on this site.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Any hot tips for today NR?

Alligator Blood too short IMO. Unless Vandyke is talking him down on purpose again...
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Massive weekend of racing coming up.

Who are people backing?
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

My thoughts...

Caulfield Cup - I think Anthony Van Dyk is the best in the field. But he is weighted heavily.
Hard not to love a horse like Verry Elleegant.
Chapada a decent roughie at odds.

The Everest - Gytrash, Classique Legend have arguably produced the two best performances this prep. On top of the ground, it’s hard to tip around them. Trekking at reasonable odds could fill a place.

The Kosciusko - Its Me enormously supported but in terms of betting, I’m liking Redouble at good odds. His form stacks up, he will enjoy firm ground. He was transferred to a country stable for this event and there seems plenty to like given he was $31 earlier in the week (I took $34 power played) and he’s now into $17. Front Page’s form reads well too.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Caulfield Cup lacking in depth this year. Quite a few simply making up numbers.

Agree about AVD and the weights. He's only won 1 X Group 1 race. No doubt he's cooped a decent penalty for his last start G2 win, where he beat the world's best stayer in Stradivarius. I took early odds on him to win the cups double at 200-1 so I don't really need to back him at $5 here.

Verry Elleegant has been thrown in by comparison. She's a 5 X G1 winner and only been given 55kg. Taking into account she 2kg mares allowance she's been rated equal of Vow and Declare who's only G1 win was last year's Melbourne Cup. She prefers the sting out of the ground so the showers forecast won't hurt her. Also unbeaten in 2 goes at 2400m. Both at G1 level and a collective winning margin of 7 lengths. Hard to go past her.

Master of Wine gets a nice weight turnaround on VE from last start beaten less than a length. Whether he's good enough to take advantage of it I'm not so sure.

Dalasan is the best roughie IMO. Nice weight drop and will appreciate the rise to 2400. Think they've ridden him a bit too close the last couple over shorter trips. Would prefer to see them settle him off the pace a bit more like he did as a 3yo.

Keep a watch on Dashing Willoughby. Better suited over 3200 so should improve on whatever he does here. Nice form in 2nd tier grade in UK and those often perform well here.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Hope you all took the tip on Verry Elleegant
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Haha I got her at $2 the place. Magnificent mare.

Redouble oh so close, that would’ve been very sweet but I had him each way ($7 place).

Classique mauled them, had the luck to match the talent. Left them eating dust. Very impressive.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Another year and another Melbourne Cup preview. Far from a normal year too and I think it's affected the depth of the field. I found it easier to rule out a more horses than in recent times. Once narrowed down to half a dozen runners it became a bit more clouded. From that point it became part judgement, part guesswork. Anyway here's my opinion on each runner of the big race.

1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE), Aidan O’Brien, Hugh Bowman, 58.5kg - barrier 3
Has outstanding form in UK. Huge run in the Caulfield Cup despite the big weight. Came from near last and circled the field. Strong 2nd under the big weight. My concern going into that race was him being weighted to his limit and that carries on here. The other big factor is he’s not been tested beyond 2400m. While his sire Galileo is a noted producer of stayers his mum was a straight out sprinter. That coupled with the big weight makes him look a risk.

2. AVILIUS (GB), James Cummings, John Allen, 57kg - barrier 10
Fair effort in the Caulfield Cup when copped a check at the wrong time. Would like to see him run through the line a bit stronger though. Dry track and step up to 3200 against him.

3. VOW AND DECLARE, Danny O’Brien, Jamie Mott, 57kg - barrier 4
Career peak to win the Cup last year with a light weight. Not gone close to replicating that form since. With 57kg I can’t see him being a threat this year.

4. MASTER OF REALITY (IRE), Joseph O’Brien, Ben Melham, 56kg - barrier 11
Looked the winner last year at the 200m mark after stalking the leader. Got the wobbles near the line and finished a close 2nd. Subsequently relegated to 4th on protest. Form this year in UK has been good again so have to respect. Notable gear change “Synthetic hoof filler” suggest some foot problems. That’s enough to put me off.

5. SIR DRAGONET (IRE), Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Glen Boss, 55.5kg barrier 14
Brilliant win in the Cox Plate and gets in with a handy weight. Has the class to win. Query is the step up to 3200m. His form in UK is mostly 2000m and a decent effort in the Epsom Derby last year over 2400m. One run at 2900m in the St Leger. Came right into the race but weakened near the line finish 4th. Suggests to me this distance is beyond him.

6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE), Joseph O’Brien, Jye McNeill, 55.5kg - barrier 12
Hard to line up this one. Raced in the Cup last year and led the field only to plug home a bit to finish 11th. UK form is excellent this year with a Curragh Cup win followed by 3rd in the Irish St Leger. Might sit just behind the pace this year to give him a chance. Will he improve as an 8yo at his 2nd attempt? Not convinced.

7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ), Chris Waller, Mark Zahra, 55.5kg - barrier 15
Superstar mare and now a 6 time Group 1 winner after the Caulfield Cup triumph. Her record at 2400m is now 3 start for 3 wins. First go beyond that now so a distance query. Eye test says she will be OK. Pedigree wise it’s a maybe. I was keen on her at Caulfield and finding it hard to jump off. Presents good value at $12.00 so worth a punt.

8. MUSTAJEER (GB), Kris Lees, Michael Rodd, 55kg - barrier 2
Did nothing in last year’s Cup and form reads very ordinary this campaign. Pass.

9. STRATUM ALBION (GB), Willie Mullins, Jordon Childs, 55kg - barrier 9
Distance no problem for this visitor. Winner over 3600m at Newmarket and had a couple of goes over the jumps this year in 4000m+ races. Back on the flat last start with a solid 2nd over 3200m in the Lonsdale Cup. Not sure he’s got the class to win.

10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB), Andrew Balding, Michael Walker, 54.5kg - barrier 19
Form was decent going into the Caulfield Cup then put in a run that was too bad to ignore. Led the field and was first horse beaten, going backwards at the 600m. Hard to see him bouncing back from that.

11. FINCHE (GB), Chris Waller, James McDonald, 54.5kg - barrier 6
Good run in the Cup last year not beaten far. Good effort in the Turbull for 3rd. Good run in Caulfield Cup when 3 wide and kept battling to the line. It’s becoming a familiar story with this bloke. He always has the “back me next start” look about him but keeps missing. As such he won’t be getting any of my money.

12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB), Charlie Fellowes, Jamie Kah, 54.5kg - barrier 1
He’s a marvel that grows a leg when he visits our shores. This is his 3rd crack at the cup and history tells us you can’t win after missing out on multiple prior attempts. He all but won the race last year when Vow and Declare poked his nose ahead on the line. Caulfield Cup run was full of merit, hitting the line as good as any. Back him and you know he’ll give you a sight. Make sure it’s an each way bet though.

13. SURPRISE BABY (NZ), Paul Preusker, Craig Williams, 54.5kg - barrier 7
Big run last year when flew home for 5th. He’s had a big spruik about him ever since and always been at the pointy end of betting. Lighter prep going in this year with only 2 runs (1600m and 2000m). He runs the distance so you know he’ll be running past plenty in the straight. The hype is knocking his price down and not a lot of value at $9.00.

14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR), Danny O’Brien, Damian Lane, 53.5kg - barrier 18
Adelaide Cup winner over 3200m and 2nd in the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington over 2800m so distance not in doubt. Took the short cut in Geelong Cup and looked a winning chance before dying on his run for a 3rd. He may benefit from that hit out and is not hopeless. Current odds of $46.00 makes him a decent roughie.

15. RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE), Danny O’Brien, Damien Oliver, 53.5kg - barrier 16
Been a hype horse of the spring as his starting prices suggest. SA Derby winner earlier in the year which gives him some staying credentials. Beaten favourite in the Cox Plate in a decent performance. He seems to go better with a softer track and he’s not going to get that here. I can see him winning but won’t be carrying my money.

16. STEEL PRINCE (IRE), Anthony and Sam Freedman, William Pike, 53.5kg - barrier 21
Geelong Cup winner where he stuck his head in front after a gun run. Fitness won’t be an issue with a good grounding this prep. Honest performer who might lack the class to be a winning hope.

17. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ), Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman, Daniel Stackhouse, 53.5kg - barrier 5
Bounced back to form with 3rd in the Caulfield Cup after a perfect run in transit. Has the distance stamp finishing 2nd in the Sydney Cup this year. I don’t see him improving on his recent run though and leaving him out of the chances.

18. ASHRUN (FR), Andreas Wohler, Declan Bates, 53kg - barrier 24
Slow tempo didn’t suit him when 4th in Geelong Cup. Appreciated the bigger track at Flemington last Saturday winning the Hotham Hcp and gaining a spot in the Cup. Showed distance not an issue with 2nd in the Prix Kergolay in August. A race that has been a good guide in the past for Cup runners from Europe. While he ticks a lot of boxes I’m concerned about the back up here making it 3 tough runs in 12 days.

19. WARNING, Anthony and Sam Freedman, Luke Currie, 53kg - barrier 8
Won the VRC Derby last year. Form since has not been up to scratch. Pass on him.

20. ETAH JAMES (NZ), Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Billy Egan, 52.5kg - barrier 22
Sydney Cup winner so we know he runs the distance. That form hasn’t stacked up and his 2 runs this prep have not inspired confidence.

21. TIGER MOTH (IRE), Aidan O’Brien, Kerrin McEvoy, 52.5kg - barrier 23
Northern Hemisphere 3yo which has rapidly become the go-to profile for Cup winners lately. 2nd in the Irish Derby before taking on open company in a Group 3 and blowing them away. Incredible to think they’ve brought a horse here with only 4 starts to his name. Rekindling won at start no10, Cross Counter at start no8. Il Paradiso all but won last year at start no9. They were all well seasoned 3yos. Can this horse do it at start no5? I think he can.

22. OCEANEX (NZ), Mick Price and Michael Kent (jnr), Dean Yendall 51.5kg - barrier 17
Gained a Cup run by winning the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington back in May. Had her chance to show credentials in the Moonee Valley Cup when a solid 3rd. Not really up to this grade.

23 MIAMI BOUND (NZ), Danny O’Brien, Daniel Moor, 51kg - barrier 13
A bit enigmatic this mare. Oaks winner last year then subsequent runs uninspiring till an impressive win in the Moonee Valley Cup 10 days ago. Soft track may have assisted here there. The form is still 2nd tier and can’t see her in the finish.

24. PERSAN, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Michael Dee, 51kg - barrier 20
Won his spot in the field by taking the Bart Cummings at Flemington a month ago and not raced since. Quite journey for this bloke. Won a Bendigo Maiden back in May and been in work ever since with 8 subsequent runs delivering 5 x wins and 3 x 2nds. I don’t think the form around him quite stacks up but would be a great story if he did win.

Final Tips
1st: Tiger Moth
2nd: Verry Elleegant
3rd: Prince of Arran
4th: Anthony Van Dyck
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Thanks NR, appreciate your posts as always.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

I've got 5 12 13 and 21 in a boxed trifecta

Sure enough some random outlier will spoil

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -PJ- »

I’m thinking $10 each way bet on today’s Cup.

Any recommendations ?

I’d like to win a lot of $$$.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Sid »

-PJ- wrote:I’m thinking $10 each way bet on today’s Cup.

Any recommendations ?

I’d like to win a lot of $$$.
NR's tips are usually the goods ^^^

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman »

For the first year ever I've been on both the Caulfield Cup AND Cox Plate winners, looking to do the rare threepeat today.

So what does this mean in regards to my tips?? Absolutely nothing
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

-PJ- wrote: November 3, 2020, 6:24 am I’m thinking $10 each way bet on today’s Cup.

Any recommendations ?

I’d like to win a lot of $$$.
Prince of Arran the best each way option. Reckon he'll be in the finish.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -PJ- »

Northern Raider wrote: November 3, 2020, 10:56 am
-PJ- wrote: November 3, 2020, 6:24 am I’m thinking $10 each way bet on today’s Cup.

Any recommendations ?

I’d like to win a lot of $$$.
Prince of Arran the best each way option. Reckon he'll be in the finish.
Cheers NR.

I’ve gone for #7
$10 each way.

I know very little.

Barrier draw, track condition and of course previous form at distance etc.

No idea.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

Got 2nd and 3rd

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by The Nickman »

Yeah good one NR... idiot
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

The Nickman wrote: November 3, 2020, 2:11 pm Yeah good one NR... idiot
You are
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Thought Tiger Moth was home. :(

Ended up with a bit each way on the winner at least.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Heroic performance to make essentially 3 race moves and still win.

I had 2nd and 3rd, so slightly up.
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