The Politics Thread 2020

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by afgtnk »

Trump is really starting to kick this up a few notches to full-blown authoritarianism. The peaceful and orderly transition of power is one of the bedrocks of a functioning democracy - a complete non-negotiable. The inaction of his inner circle and Republican Party over this situation is simply reprehensible - especially over his purge of defence and security officials. If that doesn't cause people to step in and speak out, then what will? He can only be setting up for one thing here.

Well before this election, I believed that should he lose it would end up in significant violence. My mind hasn't changed - he'll try to do the whole thing through the legal system, making it look like he's keeping it civil and following process. That'll likely not get to where he wants, up until the time that he needs to formally hand the power..... which IMO is where it may really start to pop off. When the struggle is for ultimate power, and the two sides are diametrically opposed, it generally tends to only end up one way.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Botman »

afgtnk wrote: November 12, 2020, 10:22 am Trump is really starting to kick this up a few notches to full-blown authoritarianism. The peaceful and orderly transition of power is one of the bedrocks of a functioning democracy - a complete non-negotiable. The inaction of his inner circle and Republican Party over this situation is simply reprehensible - especially over his purge of defence and security officials. If that doesn't cause people to step in and speak out, then what will? He can only be setting up for one thing here.

Well before this election, I believed that should he lose it would end up in significant violence. My mind hasn't changed - he'll try to do the whole thing through the legal system, making it look like he's keeping it civil and following process. That'll likely not get to where he wants, up until the time that he needs to formally hand the power..... which IMO is where it may really start to pop off. When the struggle is for ultimate power, and the two sides are diametrically opposed, it generally tends to only end up one way.
I was kind of laughing along with all the trump nonsense since the election thinking this will all just sort of fizzle out and end up being a more dramatic and for lack of a better word, loud transition, but ultimately i was, and still am now thinking once all the court cases are tossed (and boy are they are getting tossed, last count i was he was 0 for 12) that he and his team will move on with the aforementioned drama and volume...

but that bolded part has definitely made me think twice about how this transition is going to play out

Hopefully once all the legal proceedings are done, and the election results are official, that he and the GOP do the right thing
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

I think it's highly more likely that Trump clings on for dear life, but eventually hands over begrudgingly after placing enough doubt in enough people's minds about the validity of the election. Biden then gains the Presidency.

Trump then goes away and buys his own media company, spends the next four years pumping America with "fake news" and runs again in 2024.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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Yeah i think that's the most likely scenario and that's how im pretty sure it will play out, including the media company and a run again in 2024, if not by him directly but one of his kids... but once you start **** canning high ranking defence and security officials, it does give me cause to pause about whether this could go another way.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Botman wrote: November 12, 2020, 11:27 am Yeah i think that's the most likely scenario and that's how im pretty sure it will play out, including the media company and a run again in 2024, if not by him directly but one of his kids... but once you start **** canning high ranking defence and security officials, it does give me cause to pause about whether this could go another way.
It certainly is interesting.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Botman »

The Nickman wrote: November 12, 2020, 11:32 am
Botman wrote: November 12, 2020, 11:27 am Yeah i think that's the most likely scenario and that's how im pretty sure it will play out, including the media company and a run again in 2024, if not by him directly but one of his kids... but once you start **** canning high ranking defence and security officials, it does give me cause to pause about whether this could go another way.
It certainly is interesting.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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That’s if he’s not in gaol.

Can you imagine what a Trump media company would be like, I think it would make Infowars look rational.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:06 pm That’s if he’s not in gaol.

Can you imagine what a Trump media company would be like, I think it would make Infowars look rational.
That appears to be his plan.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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The Nickman wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:38 pm
Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:06 pm That’s if he’s not in gaol.

Can you imagine what a Trump media company would be like, I think it would make Infowars look rational.
That appears to be his plan.
First person hired could be his buddy Tucker Carlson who even Fox’s lawyers argued no reasonable would take seriously.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

Manbush wrote:
The Nickman wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:38 pm
Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:06 pm That’s if he’s not in gaol.

Can you imagine what a Trump media company would be like, I think it would make Infowars look rational.
That appears to be his plan.
First person hired could be his buddy Tucker Carlson who even Fox’s lawyers argued no reasonable would take seriously.
Who Paul Murray was referencing as a valid source of opinion the other night

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by afgtnk »

My question is this: what sign, if any, has Trump shown that he will do this peacefully?

I know the hope is always there - for the sake of the US and for the sake of the world - that he'll end up going without significant disturbance. We've made the mistake before though of thinking that he'll eventually fall into line and do what he's expected to do, but he hasn't it. He has never lifted to act in a manner that befits the office he holds. To me, he's come too far - well past the point of no return. He has millions of his heavily armed minions egging him on right now, utterly convinced as he is that this is a conspiracy against them under the guise of democracy. Will he act like the coward that those who abhor him insist he is by yielding, or be the strong, tough, indefatigable saviour his supporters worship him to be?

This is a guy that ultimately doesn't care one bit the country. About decency. Bi-partisanship. Rule of law. Democracy. Lives. Has he even shown a skerrick of genuine compassion or understanding for the nearly 250k of his own country men and women killed from Covid? I haven't seen it. He doesn't have it in him. The virus is absolutely spiralling out of control there right now at levels thought unimaginable only weeks and months ago - does he give a single ****?. Whether Americans live or die is clearly irrelevant to him, whether that be naturally, or through illness, or through taking each other out. Hell, from most reports, this guy did not give a flying **** when his brother was dying. His own brother! This is one of the clearest definition of a sociopath I've ever seen.

We have to keep in mind that he has some of the most heavily armed civilians in the world behind him. Not a rag tag bunch of guys with little guns; thousands and thousands of fanatics with military grade weaponry, ex-armed forces, ex-police. Lots of people with substantial combat training, tactical gear, and protective equipment. I'm not saying they can overrun US security forces - next to no chance. What's stopping them from causing mass chaos though? Their messiah is under attack. He may not be the one to start and direct anything, but should it take off, would he make any effort to stop it?. These are situations that can potentially snowball VERY quickly without the right intervention.

What's more, right now he's copping it as hard, if not harder, than he ever has from every angle. He's being hammered a a loser, a fraud, to get out, nobody wants or like him, he's been the worst president in history, he should be jailed. The works. People have en masse celebrated Biden's election victory, right under his nose. Understandably that's people's natural reaction, because they're sick of the guy and revel in his demise. All that's done in the past though is make him double down and embolden he and his supporters further. IMO, the better bet would be to go against instinct and try to protect the guy's ego, almost coddling him out for the sake of their national security. This can only further enrage him and bring out the worst - you wouldn't want to win a battle, without winning the war. That war is called getting him out of The White House, and it has not yet concluded.

Like with most authoritarians, they cause part or all of the problem, then present themselves as the solution. An America at war with itself after it's announced Trump won't be leading them is the other guys fault, right?. It would never have happened had he won and maintained power because after all, it didn't 'exist' before it. Any dissenters and violence were quickly quashed under the law and order President, remember?

We'll wait to see what happens, but **** me I really don't feel it'll be good.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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I read an article in the new daily that the going belief is that his key supporters know he doesnt have a leg to stand on, but are egging him on to keep the support base mobilised.

They're worried if he drifts off in to the night, the republican base that came out in force for the election, won't bother turning out for the senate runoff race in December.

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

-TW- wrote: November 12, 2020, 4:47 pm
Manbush wrote:
The Nickman wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:38 pm
Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 12:06 pm That’s if he’s not in gaol.

Can you imagine what a Trump media company would be like, I think it would make Infowars look rational.
That appears to be his plan.
First person hired could be his buddy Tucker Carlson who even Fox’s lawyers argued no reasonable would take seriously.
Who Paul Murray was referencing as a valid source of opinion the other night

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I’ve seen multiple people suggest Tucker run in 2024 :lol:
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Mickey_Raider »

I’m starting to come to the conclusion that it is not Trumps fault. He literally has a personality disorder. A textbook example of a malignant narcissist.

On top of his medical condition, he would be intoxicated beyond the point of no return by his hordes of sycophantic, enabling supporters.

What I want to know is, what is the deal with his supporters?

Like I am sure there are many “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me” folk out there who repudiated Trumpism pretty swiftly at some point after 2016 when they realised he is a complete fraud and a charlatan.

Then there are the intellectually challenged who will always gravitate towards conservative, demagogic grievance mongerers. It is simply a scientific fact that this demographic will be roped in by Trumpism. Unfortunately the US is disproportionately represented by such folk across enough states that they can feasibly be electorally successful. They cannot be blamed for having their stupidity used against them.

But the biggest question marks for me are over the likes of rayden. An ostensibly articulate fellow who somehow is still peddling what Trumpism is trying to sell. At an absolute minimum, they are passionate apologists, if not outright advocates. If their arguments don’t stand up to even the slightest application of scrutiny, just turn to the time honoured tradition of whatsboutism (Hunter Biden, Hillary etc).

Democratic institutions are almost literally being trashed by this man and such people are still choosing to die on that hill.

Completely baffling.
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The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gangrenous »

I don’t think Trump has it in him to throw a coup or actively incite violence.

Chuck a hissy fit - yes. Not denounce someone if they do get violent - yes. But I just don’t think him actively leading anything violent is in him. I think he’ll tantrum to the very end, but ultimately will go.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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I hate Trump and particularly the shonky things he does and the lies he so comfortably peddles.

But not all his 70 million voters can be idiots.

I wish the media such as the ABC could regularly interview sane Trump supporters who can articulately explain their position and their views.

ABC and other channels continually interview nutbag crazy Trump supporters which gives you the impression all Trump supporters have tattoos, bad teeth, wear American bandannas, carry machine guns in public, have pictures of Trump plastered across their walls and start screaming uncontrollable hate when they hear the word Democrats.

I want to understand American politics from the left, the right but especially the centre. I don’t think the media is giving us balanced reporting.
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The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gangrenous »

BJ wrote: But not all his 70 million voters can be idiots.
No? 50% of people being idiots is probably unders I thought...
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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gangrenous wrote:I don’t think Trump has it in him to throw a coup or actively incite violence.

Chuck a hissy fit - yes. Not denounce someone if they do get violent - yes. But I just don’t think him actively leading anything violent is in him. I think he’ll tantrum to the very end, but ultimately will go.
Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly how I see it’ll play out too
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

gangrenous wrote:
BJ wrote: But not all his 70 million voters can be idiots.
No? 50% of people being idiots is probably unders I thought...
Nah, not all of Trump’s supporters are redneck idiots, a large proportion are still just rich millionaires who have always voted republican who just want to protect their riches

And I think that’s a huge point many people often miss in these discussions.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Sterlk »

People are products of their environment, Mickey. If, like the vast majority of people, you don't have the time or inclination to review information/videos/reports/whatever first-hand, you consume somebody else's summary and/or opinion of it.

You might look at some things yourself, but while you were reading the Mueller report, something interesting happened in Question Time, the results of a clinical trial for a COVID-19 vaccination were released, and a foreign authoritarian country imprisoned an Australian on dubious charges. Nobody's getting through all that first-hand themselves.

People place trust in various segments of the media (or wherever else) to provide them with accurate information, and unfortunately some people choose poorly, or their parents chose poorly and brought them into a bubble, or they find a random Facebook group that reaffirms one of their beliefs, or something else along the same lines, and down the rabbit hole they go. Extend some trust somewhere you probably shouldn't have, and all of a sudden you're having a revelation that the earth is flat, or that vaccines cause autism.

You don't have to be a dunce with the vocabulary of a parrot to go down these pathways. I'd suggest you're looking at an intelligence vs. wisdom scenario.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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There are a wide variety of Trump voters, the inbred, 1%ers, the evangelicals, the one that surprised me most though was seeing 35% of American Muslims voted for him.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 10:56 pm There are a wide variety of Trump voters, the inbred, 1%ers, the evangelicals, the one that surprised me most though was seeing 35% of American Muslims voted for him.
Which means 65% didn't. Sounds about right to me,
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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The Nickman wrote: November 13, 2020, 7:53 am
Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 10:56 pm There are a wide variety of Trump voters, the inbred, 1%ers, the evangelicals, the one that surprised me most though was seeing 35% of American Muslims voted for him.
Which means 65% didn't. Sounds about right to me,
Since they’re a much maligned group by Trump and the right I would’ve expected much lower especially since there’s a fair crossover with another maligned group African Americans, I would have expected it to be closer to the atheist count which was 11%. Only thing I can see that might have helped the Muslim vote was the fear mongering that Trump spread about how Biden was going to remove god from America.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Manbush wrote: November 13, 2020, 9:16 am
The Nickman wrote: November 13, 2020, 7:53 am
Manbush wrote: November 12, 2020, 10:56 pm There are a wide variety of Trump voters, the inbred, 1%ers, the evangelicals, the one that surprised me most though was seeing 35% of American Muslims voted for him.
Which means 65% didn't. Sounds about right to me,
Since they’re a much maligned group by Trump and the right I would’ve expected much lower especially since there’s a fair crossover with another maligned group African Americans, I would have expected it to be closer to the atheist count which was 11%. Only thing I can see that might have helped the Muslim vote was the fear mongering that Trump spread about how Biden was going to remove god from America.
It's a matter of demographics. Within the "Muslim" demographic" there'll be (some) liberal Muslims, as well as conservative Muslims, some Muslims will be socialist, some will be capitalist, there'll be Muslim businessmen, or self-employed but there'll also be Muslim factory workers. There's fenmale Muslims, there's male Muslims, there's parents and there's single Muslims who will never get married or have kids.

People could choose to vote for Trump for whatever reason, and depending on largely their own circumstances, and often not to do with the Muslim tag you've labelled them with. The problem here is you've thrown all Muslims into one bucket and said that's all they are, when demographics work so much differently than that.

Like I said previously, 65% of the Muslim demographic NOT voting for Trump sounds about right to me.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Botman »

-TW- wrote: November 12, 2020, 5:10 pm I read an article in the new daily that the going belief is that his key supporters know he doesnt have a leg to stand on, but are egging him on to keep the support base mobilised.

They're worried if he drifts off in to the night, the republican base that came out in force for the election, won't bother turning out for the senate runoff race in December.

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That seems to be the running theory, they want to keep the base mobilised and raise as much cash for the Georgia run's off which will determine the senate.
Lets hope its that and nothing more sinister.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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Nickname you could say that about any demographic, if you think 35% of Muslims voting for Trump sounds about right would you also consider 12% of blacks voting for Trump to be right also, both have been maligned but they both also fall into the different groups you mentioned.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Northern Raider »

It will appeal to the zealots. The broader risk they face now is losing support for the Republican Party from their more rational base. Even more so the swing voters who effectively decide all elections.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Manbush wrote: November 13, 2020, 9:40 am Nickname you could say that about any demographic, if you think 35% of Muslims voting for Trump sounds about right would you also consider 12% of blacks voting for Trump to be right also, both have been maligned but they both also fall into the different groups you mentioned.
I'm saying it's more complicated then just saying "oh 35% of Muslims voted for Trump" like that's their entire identity.

Like, answer this... how many of the Muslims demographic is white? Or how many are liberals? How many are conservatives? Do you know the socialist/capitalist split? How many are single young males in the 18-35 range?

You have such a very strange and black and white way of viewing the world Manbush, when there's so many shades of grey.
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Post by greeneyed »

Networks now projecting Biden has won Arizona.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

greeneyed wrote: November 13, 2020, 2:24 pm Networks now projecting Biden has won Arizona.
Not surprising at all. Looks like Trump is going to win North Carolina too, so the final score will be 306-232

Absolute drubbing. On your bike, Trump!
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Seiffert82 »

Mickey_Raider wrote: November 12, 2020, 7:01 pm I’m starting to come to the conclusion that it is not Trumps fault. He literally has a personality disorder. A textbook example of a malignant narcissist.

On top of his medical condition, he would be intoxicated beyond the point of no return by his hordes of sycophantic, enabling supporters.

What I want to know is, what is the deal with his supporters?

Like I am sure there are many “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me” folk out there who repudiated Trumpism pretty swiftly at some point after 2016 when they realised he is a complete fraud and a charlatan.

Then there are the intellectually challenged who will always gravitate towards conservative, demagogic grievance mongerers. It is simply a scientific fact that this demographic will be roped in by Trumpism. Unfortunately the US is disproportionately represented by such folk across enough states that they can feasibly be electorally successful. They cannot be blamed for having their stupidity used against them.

But the biggest question marks for me are over the likes of rayden. An ostensibly articulate fellow who somehow is still peddling what Trumpism is trying to sell. At an absolute minimum, they are passionate apologists, if not outright advocates. If their arguments don’t stand up to even the slightest application of scrutiny, just turn to the time honoured tradition of whatsboutism (Hunter Biden, Hillary etc).

Democratic institutions are almost literally being trashed by this man and such people are still choosing to die on that hill.

Completely baffling.
Yeah, it's an interesting question and in this case it's not really as much about left and right wing politics, given his administration was largely pilloried around the world by political parties across the spectrum.

It's hard to say what the full story is, other than he sold a vision to the very wealthy that they would become even more wealthy and the rural middle class who yearn for things to be like they were in the good 'ol days, the days when America was owned by Americans and foreigners could go get ****.

These people really aren't that interested in foreign policy or climate change. They don't like being told what to do or how to live, and certainly not by foreigners. If the Commies piss them off, the US of A can just nuke em like they did the Japanese. Something like 57% of white people voted for Trump.

Related to that issue is that Trump voters want to be part of the socially dominant group and be clearly in power. Trump offered that vision to many.

Many Trump voters clearly also felt aggrieved by having their rights being withheld. Whether it be foreigners taking their jobs, the lefties taking away their rights to free speech, their rights to carry a gun or Biden stopping them freely walking in their own streets.

As you indicated, tertiary education also a big determinant. Presumably college educated people were more likely to be concerned about the geo political position Trump was putting the country in. They probably are more likely to have more connection to diverse social groups and working environments of mixed race etc, so are more concerned about race relations etc.

Ultimately Trump peddled a message of fear. Fear of change, fear of foreigners and fear of being told what to do. Many Americans clearly hold those issues dear to their hearts.

Unfortunately, the stats also show the election was also about race relations.

As stupid as it sounds, Biden only got in because Trump **** up the COVID response. To be successful, Biden needs to reassure the white middle class that he is on their side.
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Northern Raider
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Northern Raider »

Interesting side note. I hedged my bet on Biden when Trump's odds started to blow out. Took him when it hit 5.00. It's still showing in my pending bets so Sportsbet haven't called it a loss yet.
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-TW-
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

I doubt they will til the election is formally declared.

My Biden bet was paid on the Thursday

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

The Nickman wrote: November 13, 2020, 10:06 am
Manbush wrote: November 13, 2020, 9:40 am Nickname you could say that about any demographic, if you think 35% of Muslims voting for Trump sounds about right would you also consider 12% of blacks voting for Trump to be right also, both have been maligned but they both also fall into the different groups you mentioned.
I'm saying it's more complicated then just saying "oh 35% of Muslims voted for Trump" like that's their entire identity.

Like, answer this... how many of the Muslims demographic is white? Or how many are liberals? How many are conservatives? Do you know the socialist/capitalist split? How many are single young males in the 18-35 range?

You have such a very strange and black and white way of viewing the world Manbush, when there's so many shades of grey.
Hardly black and white when I acknowledge the grey, while there’s always going to be outliers I wouldn’t expect such a large number to support a group who denigrates them, the 12% for both blacks and atheists makes more sense.
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gergreg »

Trump doing a victory speech?

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