The Politics Thread 2020

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Sterlk
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Sterlk »

So, US election next week. Who wants to make predictions?

I'm backing the polls. Even though that didn't go so well last time, the lead this time is much more substantial.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

I've been saying for months now for anyone who will listen to me that Trump is no chance, and I firmly stand by that.

Nothing I have seen in the last four months shows anything but a complete landslide against him.
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gangrenous
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gangrenous »

The Nickman wrote:I've been saying for months now for anyone who will listen to me that Trump is no chance, and I firmly stand by that.
Pretty niche, considered trying for a broader audience? Image
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

Wish I could have your guys faith in Americans but for mine they’ve too often demonstrated they aren’t deserving. I’m hoping Biden wins but can’t tip either way.

There’s also the issue surrounding postal votes, when will the counting stop, which way will the Supreme Court decide, how many will be rejected, too many unknowns with the republicans attempts at voter suppression.
Last edited by Manbush on October 28, 2020, 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

There's no WAY Trump wins, there's too many key indicators that point to him being absolutely swept into the ocean on this one.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

The Nickman wrote: October 28, 2020, 5:25 pm There's no WAY Trump wins, there's too many key indicators that point to him being absolutely swept into the ocean on this one.
Sorry I edited my post just as you posted this, you don’t think the mail in votes could cause an issue? When they’ll stop counting, how many will be rejected for simple things, how the Supreme Court will decide a few cases in front of them?
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Manbush wrote: October 28, 2020, 5:29 pm
The Nickman wrote: October 28, 2020, 5:25 pm There's no WAY Trump wins, there's too many key indicators that point to him being absolutely swept into the ocean on this one.
Sorry I edited my post just as you posted this, you don’t think the mail in votes could cause an issue? When they’ll stop counting, how many will be rejected for simple things, how the Supreme Court will decide a few cases in front of them?
I don't think it will be enough to swing the election, no.

Let me put it this way, they're predicting record numbers of voters this election. Let that sink in for a moment, these people aren't all of a sudden voting to vote for Trump, in fact everyone who is going to vote for Trump voted for him last election. And many of the fence-sitters who voted for Trump last time are not going to vote for him now, particularly after the way he's completely butchered COVID. He'll have almost no new voters this election, and yet there's a record turnout predicted?

Trump and his goons are absolutely **** themselves about this which is why there's all this hubbub about postal voting. They're snatching post boxes from the streets, they're claiming they'll stop counting early, all of those things are because they know they're screwed.

All sorts of shenanigans are going to erupt as part of this election process and it may even turn quite bloody... but it won't be enough to swing an overwhelming defeat back in the favour of Trump. What happens post-election might be interesting too, but we'll burn that bridge when we come to it.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

I hope you’re right mate but a) I have my doubts with Americans intelligence b) have no doubts about how dirty the Republicans are willing to get to win it.

It’s bizarre that even if Trump loses he will remain in power till late January, with how petty and vindictive he is I’m dreading what he’d do in that period.
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

You can have your doubts all you want, I'm telling you how it is.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by zim »

The Nickman wrote: October 28, 2020, 5:45 pm You can have your doubts all you want, I'm telling you how it is.
This is the crux of it. There's a lot of worry about the process because of the democrats historical **** up, but all the indicators are heavily in their favour.

A lot of the idiots that were on the "it doesn't matter who you elect it won't matter" train would be making damn sure they have a voice.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

How can he not win he’s ended the pandemic. :lol:

“The White House science office lists “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” as one of the top accomplishments of the Trump administration’s first term“

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.for ... hment/amp/
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Dr Zaius »

Assuming Biden wins, brace yourself for the absolute **** show that will occur between election day and Biden's inauguration
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-TW-
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

Trump will take everything to court and protest the result.

It'll probably be months

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Begbie »

No Trump is well gone. Was months ago.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Honestly, when Trump loses it could go anywhere from outright civil war to Trump slinking quietly away into the night

Literally anything could happen. I’m tipping the latter though, after a lot of bluster and hot air
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by FuiFui BradBrad »

Dr Zaius wrote:Assuming Biden wins, brace yourself for the absolute **** show that will occur between election day and Biden's inauguration
This is what concerns me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him burn the country down, salt the ashes and make a b-line to Moscow
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Fuifui Bradbrad wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:Assuming Biden wins, brace yourself for the absolute **** show that will occur between election day and Biden's inauguration
This is what concerns me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him burn the country down, salt the ashes and make a b-line to Moscow
I wouldn’t be surprised either, and all signs suggest something awful could happen... but I think sanity will prevail in the end
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Manbush »

Geez the 60 Minutes reporter has received death threats for simply asking him questions, some far right groups have called for civil war if he loses, things could get very nasty if he goes down.
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

They could, but my gut feel is they won't.

I wouldn't rule out SOME violence though, particularly on polling day, but I think they'll stop short on outright civil war.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Sterlk »

Personally, I like the "13 Keys" model that was developed by Allan Lichtman in 1981, and when applied retrospectively has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1860. I'm including everything since 1981 there as well, including the Trump win in 2016.

If 2016 didn't break this model's record, I'm predicting it will hold here as well.

The keys suggest a Biden win.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

Sterlk wrote: October 29, 2020, 6:56 pm Personally, I like the "13 Keys" model that was developed by Allan Lichtman in 1981, and when applied retrospectively has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1860. I'm including everything since 1981 there as well, including the Trump win in 2016.

If 2016 didn't break this model's record, I'm predicting it will hold here as well.

The keys suggest a Biden win.
I've just been relying on the "Nickman model" which predicted Trump 2016 and ScoMo last year and also says Biden will win.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

ScoMo last year was easy

His opponent was Bill Shorten, the bloke who got carved up by Malcolm Turnbull for selling out his own union.

He was never winning, regardless of what he or the polls said

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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-TW- wrote: October 30, 2020, 2:36 pm ScoMo last year was easy

His opponent was Bill Shorten, the bloke who got carved up by Malcolm Turnbull for selling out his own union.

He was never winning, regardless of what he or the polls said

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ScoMo was paying to 5 to 1, Labor voters were celebrating before the election even happened, Sportsbet paid out on Shorten before the election and whenever I said ScoMo would win people laughed at me.

Let's not rewrite history here.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

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The Nickman wrote:
Sterlk wrote: October 29, 2020, 6:56 pm Personally, I like the "13 Keys" model that was developed by Allan Lichtman in 1981, and when applied retrospectively has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1860. I'm including everything since 1981 there as well, including the Trump win in 2016.

If 2016 didn't break this model's record, I'm predicting it will hold here as well.

The keys suggest a Biden win.
I've just been relying on the "Nickman model" which predicted Trump 2016 and ScoMo last year and also says Biden will win.
But was picking a Trump reelection not all that long ago

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Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Resounding loss for Rupert Murdoch in QLD last night.

1 years’+ worth of relentless campaigning against Palasczcuk only for her to be returned with an enhanced majority.

Let’s see those salty, salty tears Paul Murray, Bolt, Jones etc etc
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Mickey_Raider »

T_R wrote: November 1, 2020, 1:17 pm
The Nickman wrote:
Sterlk wrote: October 29, 2020, 6:56 pm Personally, I like the "13 Keys" model that was developed by Allan Lichtman in 1981, and when applied retrospectively has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1860. I'm including everything since 1981 there as well, including the Trump win in 2016.

If 2016 didn't break this model's record, I'm predicting it will hold here as well.

The keys suggest a Biden win.
I've just been relying on the "Nickman model" which predicted Trump 2016 and ScoMo last year and also says Biden will win.
But was picking a Trump reelection not all that long ago

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The Keys were predicting a Trump win not all that long ago either.

Fatally mishandling a pandemic and widespread racial unrest changes everything.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Sterlk »

Huh, I never saw that - he's right:
https://thehornnews.com/expert-predicts ... 0-victory/ (May 2019)

What a difference 18mths makes.

Back to the polls, here's the national polling average a few days out from election day:
2020: Biden+8.6
2016: Clinton+3.9

Trump's 2016 win was within the realm of a margin of error, looks to be well outside that at the moment. If/when Biden wins and Trump leaves - willingly or not - I hope Trumpism goes with him, or is at least relegated to the fringes. There's a difference between your typical political weaseling on both sides and today's entire ecosystem of layered, bald-faced and repeated lies that get embraced down partisan lines. It's not good for them, nor for us by proxy.

I kid you not, “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” is on a list of Trump's first-term accomplishments. Regardless of when Trump goes, be it shortly or another four years from now, I hope and believe that his successor will not be able to reject reality with as much political success. I think the sheer scale with which he's been able to do this is a Trump-specific phenomenon that relies on a number of traits unlikely to show up in future presidential candidates.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by The Nickman »

T_R wrote:
The Nickman wrote:
Sterlk wrote: October 29, 2020, 6:56 pm Personally, I like the "13 Keys" model that was developed by Allan Lichtman in 1981, and when applied retrospectively has predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1860. I'm including everything since 1981 there as well, including the Trump win in 2016.

If 2016 didn't break this model's record, I'm predicting it will hold here as well.

The keys suggest a Biden win.
I've just been relying on the "Nickman model" which predicted Trump 2016 and ScoMo last year and also says Biden will win.
But was picking a Trump reelection not all that long ago

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Prior to COVID, yes
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by BJ »

The Nickman Model is far superior to the BJ Mole model which predicted Hanson for PM in 2010 and Titans for the 2019 premiership.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gangrenous »

Nickman’s modelling career is certainly polarising
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

Mickey_Raider wrote:Resounding loss for Rupert Murdoch in QLD last night.

1 years’+ worth of relentless campaigning against Palasczcuk only for her to be returned with an enhanced majority.

Let’s see those salty, salty tears Paul Murray, Bolt, Jones etc etc
Paul Murray has gone from a reasonable conservative commentator to full on propaganda in the last year or so

He's intolerable with the **** he spouts now

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by gangrenous »

Can probably thank Trump, Johnson for allowing some of these clowns to feel comfortable enough to show their true colours

Politics is really in the ****.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Mickey_Raider »

-TW- wrote: November 1, 2020, 4:26 pm
Mickey_Raider wrote:Resounding loss for Rupert Murdoch in QLD last night.

1 years’+ worth of relentless campaigning against Palasczcuk only for her to be returned with an enhanced majority.

Let’s see those salty, salty tears Paul Murray, Bolt, Jones etc etc
Paul Murray has gone from a reasonable conservative commentator to full on propaganda in the last year or so

He's intolerable with the **** he spouts now

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He has been insufferable for much longer than 12 months, IMO.

It really is incredible television - from about 6-11pm every single night Sky News is an echo chamber of ranting, raving, sneering pundits generally indulging in a circle jerk of hyperbolic conservative grievance mongering.

Literally every single night. It is quite remarkable.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by -TW- »

When your panel consists of Rowan Dean (whoever the **** he actually is) Cory Bernardi and some bellend from the IPA then you know it's just going to be a massive wank fest

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Re: The Politics Thread 2020

Post by Dr Zaius »

Fox News is beyond awful. Hateful old flogs.

But Palaszczuk captilised on Queenslanders suspicion of southerners. Her playing politics with the pandemic had a needless negative impact on thousands of people. It was gutter politics, and Queenslanders enabled her.
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