Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

gangrenous wrote:The one from a couple of weeks back I think they settled on having caught within quarantine, but I haven’t followed it up recently to see if that changed.

Think there was another one or two last week they had where they’d tested positive post quarantine, similar to this NSW one.

I’ll have to have a more solid read up.
NSW Health seem fairly certain that this is overseas acquired. Maybe they have genomics back, or maybe there were no other positive cases in that quarantine facility while that person was there.
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Azza
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

WA apparently is looking to move from a 28-day rule for 'very low risk jurisdiction' to a 21 day or 14 day rule.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

A couple more cases in Victoria today linked to hotel q3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Well heres a hot take on the vaccine situation...

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... db8UFY8Xp8
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Coastalraider wrote: February 10, 2021, 8:51 am Well heres a hot take on the vaccine situation...

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... db8UFY8Xp8
In an situation where crackpot theories are commonplace this one takes it to another level. :lol:
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Two more cases in Victoria today, linked to the same hotel quarantine.

It appears that a Covid positive person was using a nebuliser in the hotel, aerosolising virus and spreading it around. This is bad.

The usual Social Media trolls that jumped all over the case in NSW earlier in the week have gone quiet on this.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Another two in Victoria today. Close contacts of known cases, in isolation.

Edit. And a third, another quarantine worker from the same hotel.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Let's put the nebuliser thing down to a learning experience.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

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Northern Raider wrote:Let's put the nebuliser thing down to a learning experience.
Yeah, nah.

Nebulisers were banned in Canberra when I was a medical student during SARS.

They were banned in Queensland hospitals outside of negative pressure rooms back in March last year. Their potential to aerosolise virus has been well known for over a decade.
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

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So the assumption would be Vic health was providing them to quarantiners?

If so that's a major fail

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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Stage 4 lockdown for 5 days again in Victoria

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

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Again, I'm yet to be convinced that a 5 day lockdown achieves much.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Political points, Doc

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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Dr Zaius wrote: February 11, 2021, 10:05 pm
Northern Raider wrote:Let's put the nebuliser thing down to a learning experience.
Yeah, nah.

Nebulisers were banned in Canberra when I was a medical student during SARS.

They were banned in Queensland hospitals outside of negative pressure rooms back in March last year. Their potential to aerosolise virus has been well known for over a decade.
I was being facetious. :)
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Northern Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: February 11, 2021, 10:05 pm
Northern Raider wrote:Let's put the nebuliser thing down to a learning experience.
Yeah, nah.

Nebulisers were banned in Canberra when I was a medical student during SARS.

They were banned in Queensland hospitals outside of negative pressure rooms back in March last year. Their potential to aerosolise virus has been well known for over a decade.
I was being facetious. :)
Oh. Woosh. Straight over my head
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Old mate Mr Nebuliser reckons he was given permission to use it.

Unbelievable if true.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by zim »

I can see as a private citizen not realizing it's a bad thing to do because advice changes over long periods for chronic sufferers but surely, surely a medical professional hasn't ok'd that.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

He is saying that he declared it, and sought and gained permission to use it.

Dan Andrews is saying that he didn't declare it, and that quarantine staff were unaware that he had it and was using it.

This man's use of a nebuliser has resulted in Australia's second largest city going into lockdown
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Seems most of these cases escaping quarantine come back to flaws in the system or errors being made.
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Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Isn’t that circular logic?

They’re errors and flaws because they let it out... it can’t escape without a flaw or an error
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

gangrenous wrote: February 13, 2021, 9:48 am Isn’t that circular logic?

They’re errors and flaws because they let it out... it can’t escape without a flaw or an error
Well yes now you mention it. :opps

What I mean is avoidable flaws e.g. approving the use of a nebuliser or some staff not required to wear proper PPE (situation in Perth).

In general the hotel quarantine system is working. Just needs a refining and bit more discipline.
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Yeah, there do seem to be a number of mistakes that you would have thought could have been foreseen rather than dealing with captain hindsight.

Ultimately humans are setting up this system, humans are running this system, humans are using this system (with a non-negligible proportion who actively fight the system)... and humans are stupid. It’s going to keep escaping and that’s why we should still be planning for alternate solutions.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Alternative solutions still need to be better. A lot of learning on the fly since this pandemic began. With the impending vaccines I'm not sure we should be putting too much effort into changing a system that has generally worked other than refining it to prevent errors repeating.
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because all you need is a strong variant that the vaccines don’t work on and you’re back to square one.

Or we have a novel pandemic.

Why not plan out a better option than one that shuts cities with a sneeze?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

They could well be doing that. I doubt they would be announcing anything publicly until they were well advanced. No point in giving us thought bubbles.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

BBC reports confidence that vaccines effective against Covid mutations:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820

Dr Julian W Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester, says vaccines can be modified to be "more close-fitting and effective against this variant in a few months".

"Meanwhile, most of us believe that the existing vaccines are likely to work to some extent to reduce infection/ transmission rates and severe disease against both the UK and South African variants - as the various mutations have not altered the S protein shape that the current vaccine-induced antibodies will not bind at all."

But as Dr Jeff Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Hinxton, UK, points out, it's the combination of what the virus is doing and what we're doing that determines how fast it spreads.

"With the new variant, the situation changes more quickly as restrictions are relaxed and tightened, and there is less room for error in controlling the spread," he says.

"We don't have any evidence, however, that the new variant can fundamentally evade masks, social distancing, or the other interventions - we just need to apply them more strictly."
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

This is not a fun time to be alive.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

NSW has reached the 28 days without a community transmission required to be deemed to have eliminated the virus.

They achieved this with a targeted lockdown, tightening of restrictions, testing in unprecedented numbers, and efficient tracking and isolating in close contacts.

They received unfair criticism and outright vitriol from other states, but while the rest of the country **** its pants, it calmly went about getting the job done.

In the time since the Northern Beaches cluster, Brisbane, Perth and now Melbourne have been in lockdown. Despite taking over half of Australia's overseas returnees, Sydney remains the only major state capital not to have had a city wide lockdown. Anyone who hasn't realised that NSW Health are the masters at managing Covid, hasn't been paying attention.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Dr Zaius wrote:NSW has reached the 28 days without a community transmission required to be deemed to have eliminated the virus.

They achieved this with a targeted lockdown, tightening of restrictions, testing in unprecedented numbers, and efficient tracking and isolating in close contacts.

They received unfair criticism and outright vitriol from other states, but while the rest of the country **** its pants, it calmly went about getting the job done.

In the time since the Northern Beaches cluster, Brisbane, Perth and now Melbourne have been in lockdown. Despite taking over half of Australia's overseas returnees, Sydney remains the only major state capital not to have had a city wide lockdown. Anyone who hasn't realised that NSW Health are the masters at managing Covid, hasn't been paying attention.
Or they suffer from ridiculous political or state biases that prevent them from seeing the situation clearly
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Auckland into a short lockdown. Family has tested positive and they are uncertain of the source.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Northern Raider wrote: February 14, 2021, 8:29 pm Auckland into a short lockdown. Family has tested positive and they are uncertain of the source.
Another example of elimination strategy not working, until there is widespread application of the vaccine.

One person who knows this and explains it well is Dr Nick Coatsworth:

https://www.health.gov.au/news/eliminat ... false-hope

Dan Andrews appears intent on an elimination strategy by floating ideas about restricting returning Australians to only compassionate grounds. This would leave many Australian citizens unable to return home at all. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail and the thoughts of a Premier under pressure can be attributed to that pressure. Of the hundreds of thousands of Australians who have returned via hotel quarantine only a small number have tested positive to Covid and only a fraction of these have seen the virus escape quarantine. I think there will always be errors when humans are involved but I don't think labelling people involved as stupid is helpful or accurate. Mistakes happen. Let those who have never made a mistake put their hand up. It is now 7 weeks since the last Covid death in Australia on December 28, 2020.
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Nickman wrote: December 11, 2020, 7:08 am
Seiffert82 wrote:
The Nickman wrote: December 9, 2020, 6:16 pm
Seiffert82 wrote:650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
Higher
Yeah, looking at some of the projections you're probably right. Looks like they are tracking towards over 500m by the end of Feb.

That dip**** Trump would have won the election and hundreds of thousands of people would have been saved if he had only treated this thing seriously.

In saying that, they asked for it I guess.
They’ll pass 300k in the next 24 hours. 400k before the end of January.

February will depend on whether they’re still speeding up or slowing down by then. Could honestly go either way.

500k looks like a solid bet though.
This was back in early December. I severely underestimated how out of control this thing would get over there after the election.

They are just about to hit 500k deaths just after mid February. Scary stuff.

Just based on the 28.3 million cases they have had to date, with a death rate of 2.66%, that equates to 750,000 expected deaths....plus whatever is to come.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Yeah, just brutal stuff here by the US

Fortunately all of those numbers are going to start trending downwards now, but not until after quite a few more die
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

RedRaider wrote: Another example of elimination strategy not working, until there is widespread application of the vaccine.
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Again - Elimination strategy doesn’t mean you can’t have leaks from quarantine! That does not represent a failure of an Elimination strategy!
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

gangrenous wrote: February 15, 2021, 6:23 pm
RedRaider wrote: Another example of elimination strategy not working, until there is widespread application of the vaccine.
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Again - Elimination strategy doesn’t mean you can’t have leaks from quarantine! That does not represent a failure of an Elimination strategy!
AHPPC recommends a suppression strategy at this time, why do you want to argue with the professionals?

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australi ... -direction

This AHPPC statement is still up today. I'll follow the advice of the professionals. It's ok to have a different view, but the dictionary definition of Elimination is: "the complete removal or destruction of something."

AHPPC will review again regularly and there may be more validity to your view as the vaccine rolls out, but for now, nup. The strategy and advice at the highest level is clearly suppression and I'll go with that.
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