Coronavirus

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The Nickman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Dr Zaius wrote: February 5, 2021, 8:52 am
Northern Raider wrote:Some very different reactions to similar scenarios recently with an infected quarantine worker in the community for several days. WA immediate 5 day lockdown and declared a hot zone. VIC bring in some restrictions and go for contract tracing and selective isolation. More like what NSW have done.
There really is no benefit in a 5 day lockdown apart from getting on top of contact tracing. When the lockdown is lifted, the second generation of people exposed may still be presymptomatic. If you have confidence in your contact tracing to quickly identify test and isolate close contacts, and then contact trace any of those that are positive, then you are not adding any significant benefit other than political grandstanding.
Also, it can be quite counterproductive if you induce panic and everyone converges on the shops to buy toilet paper.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by zim »

Wait you guys aren't making your own toilet paper these days?
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

The Nickman wrote: February 5, 2021, 9:15 am
Dr Zaius wrote: February 5, 2021, 8:52 am
Northern Raider wrote:Some very different reactions to similar scenarios recently with an infected quarantine worker in the community for several days. WA immediate 5 day lockdown and declared a hot zone. VIC bring in some restrictions and go for contract tracing and selective isolation. More like what NSW have done.
There really is no benefit in a 5 day lockdown apart from getting on top of contact tracing. When the lockdown is lifted, the second generation of people exposed may still be presymptomatic. If you have confidence in your contact tracing to quickly identify test and isolate close contacts, and then contact trace any of those that are positive, then you are not adding any significant benefit other than political grandstanding.
Also, it can be quite counterproductive if you induce panic and everyone converges on the shops to buy toilet paper.
I'd argue that toilet paper buying has consistently proven to be the the most effective method of countering COVID. Outbreak happens - everyone buys toilet paper - outbreak contained. The facts are indisputable.
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The Nickman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

The whole thing is obviously just a big conspiracy by Big TP.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Finally people are seeing the truth
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

The Nickman wrote: February 5, 2021, 9:44 am The whole thing is obviously just a big conspiracy by Big TP.
It’s obvious.

I just wish people would do their own research and not believe what they read in the papers..
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Seiffert82
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

Toilet paper causes autism.

Everyone with autism has used toilet paper at least once, often as a child.

That's a fact.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Toilet paper has a lot to answer for.
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Seiffert82
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

Oh, the stories it could tell.
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gergreg
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gergreg »

Coastalraider wrote:
The Nickman wrote: February 5, 2021, 9:44 am The whole thing is obviously just a big conspiracy by Big TP.
It’s obvious.

I just wish people would do their own research and not believe what they read in the papers..
What does Pete Evans have to say on the matter?

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RedRaider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

zim wrote: February 5, 2021, 9:27 am Wait you guys aren't making your own toilet paper these days?
Finally a use for junk mail.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

The logic on the short lockdown is similar as the GH thought process on toilet paper. You just know that Perth are going to have no further cases, and people will deem this due to the Premier's decisive action in implementing a quick lockdown, despite the quarantine worker not passing the virus on to a single person. Many people are saying that WA have done the right thing, because a short sharp lockdown worked in Queensland, despite the quarantine worker infected her partner only, and he was in isolation before the lockdown began. That's not to say that the lockdown wasn't necessary, just that the outcome would have been the same regardless of whether there was a lockdown. Many people appear to lack critical reasoning skills.

People need to be aware of restriction fatigue. When a young lady from Canberra wasn't allowed into Brisbane for her father's funeral, I was told that in a world wide pandemic we will all be inconvenienced. This is true, but is somewhat easier view to push when you are not the one being inconvenienced. While we will have necessary inconveniences, we shouldn't be subjected to unnecessary inconveniences. Not allowing a young woman attend her father's funeral because she was from a jurisdiction that had not had a covid case for 4 months strikes me as an unnecessary inconvenience.

My point is that we have no idea how long we will be dealing with this virus, but likely another one or two years. Restrictions to control the virus are imperative, but they should not be more than necessary required to get that done. The end result of needless, heavy handed restrictions is people resenting them and not following public health directive when needed.
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Botman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Botman »

Great post, Doc.
WA's response to this imo has been absolutely insane. I get that you want to at all costs avoid this getting into the community but the restrictions still need to be reasonable against the risk. What they are doing is absolutely beyond reasonable imo
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
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EXEC RAND(good_grief; cheak_notes; uh82cit;)

GO;
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

As night follows day. My God people are dumb. ImageImage
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

:lol: I can't believe how stupid people can be. There was similar comments in QLD after the lockdown. The virus did not spread from the original case so the lockdowns had zero impact in that regard.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

And then you have morons like this person. Imagine thinking that Sydney would have been better off going through what Melbourne went through. The mental gymnastics are Olympic class. Image
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Do yourself a favour doc, close the Facebook app and pour yourself a beverage. Then watch something good.
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I'm Bate Man
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by I'm Bate Man »

Botman wrote:Great post, Doc.
WA's response to this imo has been absolutely insane. I get that you want to at all costs avoid this getting into the community but the restrictions still need to be reasonable against the risk. What they are doing is absolutely beyond reasonable imo
I’m in WA, and apart from having to stop working as a cabinetmaker in homes this week I’ve had a great year.

We’ve had hard boarders, and a lot has been said about them. But how many people that have complained, or commented or cared about then have actually been to WA, planned on going to WA or have family there?

There’s a lot of stone throwing from people that have nothing to do with WA.
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zim
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by zim »

Gee this debate is going to be hard if I have to live in the state I want to criticize. Please don't make me move to QLD.
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the bone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by the bone »

Interesting article about plummeting case counts in India:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a ... story.html

The theory is that the total # of cases (10.8MM) is a vast undercount and that a significant proportion of the population, at least in cities, has already been infected.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

I'm Bate Man wrote:
Botman wrote:Great post, Doc.
WA's response to this imo has been absolutely insane. I get that you want to at all costs avoid this getting into the community but the restrictions still need to be reasonable against the risk. What they are doing is absolutely beyond reasonable imo
I’m in WA, and apart from having to stop working as a cabinetmaker in homes this week I’ve had a great year.

We’ve had hard boarders, and a lot has been said about them. But how many people that have complained, or commented or cared about then have actually been to WA, planned on going to WA or have family there?

There’s a lot of stone throwing from people that have nothing to do with WA.
The WA border closure certainly doesn't impact anywhere near as many people as the Queensland border closure did.

Still I know a number of people that have been impacted. Most of them are FIFO families where they either went months without seeing their husband/father, or relocated to Perth with young children away from their support networks.

WA doesn't rely on tourism like Queensland, who predictably shot themselves in the foot from that perspective.

The main issue that I have with WA is that their premier behaves like a knob.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

gangrenous wrote:Do yourself a favour doc, close the Facebook app and pour yourself a beverage. Then watch something good.
Sound advice. It's 530am. Too early to start drinking? Nickman says: No!
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:Do yourself a favour doc, close the Facebook app and pour yourself a beverage. Then watch something good.
Sound advice. It's 530am. Too early to start drinking? Nickman says: No!
Hold that thought for tomorrow and Monday, pal!
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The Nickman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Northern Raider wrote::lol: I can't believe how stupid people can be. There was similar comments in QLD after the lockdown. The virus did not spread from the original case so the lockdowns had zero impact in that regard.
Yeah, that Queensland lockdown was just absolutely ridiculous and illogical

Anybody still claiming that Queensland have done an on par or better job at managing this virus than NSW needs to have a good hard look at their own motivations and biases.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

the bone wrote: February 6, 2021, 3:03 am Interesting article about plummeting case counts in India:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a ... story.html

The theory is that the total # of cases (10.8MM) is a vast undercount and that a significant proportion of the population, at least in cities, has already been infected.
With zero proof I've always suspected places like India to have the virus run right through certain communities with the majority of cases undetected. Official figures can be taken with a grain of salt.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

**** knows. Hopefully they have a highly transmissible, very low virulence mutant that has spread undetected through out their population causing minimal disease. The problem with the idea that the known covid has spread undetected is that is not being reflected in hospital presentations and deaths. Although they are a generally young population, so perhaps just not getting all that sick.
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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

The Nickman wrote: February 6, 2021, 5:42 am
Northern Raider wrote::lol: I can't believe how stupid people can be. There was similar comments in QLD after the lockdown. The virus did not spread from the original case so the lockdowns had zero impact in that regard.
Yeah, that Queensland lockdown was just absolutely ridiculous and illogical

Anybody still claiming that Queensland have done an on par or better job at managing this virus than NSW needs to have a good hard look at their own motivations and biases.
I tried arguing the point with some people at time. Impossible to do so when they can't grasp or accept some basic logic. When cornered they fall back on cliches like "better to be safe than sorry" or the good old "money more important than lives".
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the bone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by the bone »

Dr Zaius wrote: February 6, 2021, 9:54 am **** knows. Hopefully they have a highly transmissible, very low virulence mutant that has spread undetected through out their population causing minimal disease. The problem with the idea that the known covid has spread undetected is that is not being reflected in hospital presentations and deaths. Although they are a generally young population, so perhaps just not getting all that sick.
The article suggested the same. It could also be an indicator that case counts in other countries are vastly undercounted too.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

the bone wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: February 6, 2021, 9:54 am **** knows. Hopefully they have a highly transmissible, very low virulence mutant that has spread undetected through out their population causing minimal disease. The problem with the idea that the known covid has spread undetected is that is not being reflected in hospital presentations and deaths. Although they are a generally young population, so perhaps just not getting all that sick.
The article suggested the same. It could also be an indicator that case counts in other countries are vastly undercounted too.
There is no doubt case counts in some/most heavily impacted countries are a significant underestimation. What percent of your covid swabs are coming back positive are a good indicator of how many cases you are missing. Parts of the the US have had a swab positivity rate of upwards of 30%. In comparison Melbourne peaked at about 3% in July/August last year, and NSW recent outbreak peaked at 0.1%
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

I heard in a discussion of the SA tour being cancelled that their positive rate is about 40% of tests currently

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

That doesn't bode well
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Looks like NSW now has a 16 day incubation case to go with a couple from NZ. This would be a pain in the **** if this is a thing...
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Azza
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Mark "Covid 19 expert the 2nd" McGowan will no doubt kick the boot into NSW for not having the "gold standard" anymore to divert attention from his own screwups.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

gangrenous wrote:Looks like NSW now has a 16 day incubation case to go with a couple from NZ. This would be a pain in the **** if this is a thing...
What was the outcome from the NZ case, I never did here? Quarantine acquired or long incubation period.

From what I heard the NSW case has a high Cycle Threshold (number of times that the RNA is replicated to detect it. This could mean a false positive or an old positive case (that would mean that the two previous tests were false negatives which seems less likely). Either way they don't seem to think that the case is very infectious.

Another quarantine worker positive in Victoria as well.
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

The one from a couple of weeks back I think they settled on having caught within quarantine, but I haven’t followed it up recently to see if that changed.

Think there was another one or two last week they had where they’d tested positive post quarantine, similar to this NSW one.

I’ll have to have a more solid read up.
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