Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Sterlk wrote:What's going on here? Isn't Craig Kelly the guy that the PM has been under pressure to condemn due to a bunch of anti-masker and/or anti-vaccine rhetoric?

Can somebody explain what he's going on about - are the things he's quoted discredited studies, or something?
His post is about as ironic as things get. He is literally preaching anti-science views, while condemning others for apparently not following the science.

Something about a cannon and the sun come to mind.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Azza wrote:Yep, and the sniping is now commencing between NSW, QLD and the Federal Government over Pala's demand the Federal Government extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry, ignoring her disproportionately aggressive border policies.
My sister twice booked her family of five for a trip to Cairns last year. Twice she had to cancel because of border restrictions, despite coming from a rural NSW town that had not had a case since March.

In the meantime Anastasia was giving reassurances that Northern Queensland was busy with Queensland tourists, and ignoring Federal Health advice to restrict hotspots only.

And then the election happened and Anastasia is happy to follow the Federal hotspot model, but wants a Federal bailout because the tourism industry has been decimated. The same tourism industry that was apparently going gang busters before the election, flooded with Queensland tourists.

It's probably not Gladys' place to comment on this, but she's not wrong.
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the bone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by the bone »

J&J announces results from their Phase 3 Vaccine trial
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-ann ... mble-trial

Key points:
> 66% Effective Overall at Preventing Moderate to Severe COVID-19
> 85% Effective Overall in Preventing Severe COVID-19
> Protection was generally consistent across race, age groups (including adults over 60 years of age) and across all variants and regions studied, including in South Africa where nearly all cases of COVID-19 (95%) were due to infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant from the B.1.351 lineage ("the South Africa variant")
> Reminder that this is a single shot vaccine, compatible with standard vaccine distribution channels i.e. it can be stored for 3 months at 2-8°C (standard fridge temperatures)
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 29, 2021, 11:04 pm
Azza wrote:Yep, and the sniping is now commencing between NSW, QLD and the Federal Government over Pala's demand the Federal Government extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry, ignoring her disproportionately aggressive border policies.
My sister twice booked her family of five for a trip to Cairns last year. Twice she had to cancel because of border restrictions, despite coming from a rural NSW town that had not had a case since March.

In the meantime Anastasia was giving reassurances that Northern Queensland was busy with Queensland tourists, and ignoring Federal Health advice to restrict hotspots only.

And then the election happened and Anastasia is happy to follow the Federal hotspot model, but wants a Federal bailout because the tourism industry has been decimated. The same tourism industry that was apparently going gang busters before the election, flooded with Queensland tourists.

It's probably not Gladys' place to comment on this, but she's not wrong.
Tourism is the flag ship for this extended jobkeeper campaign, but there are other industries hurting and about to collapse due to border/capacity restrictions. I’m in the mass participation sporting event business, and we haven’t been able to raise a worthwhile client invoice since about April last year. 1200 events were cancelled last year nationally due to event capacity restrictions and non covid compliance.

It’s easy for people to say ‘go do something else’ but the industry will begin to collapse at the conclusion of the jobkeeper program, and the knock on effects are wide ranging. Think of the supplier industry’s like marquee hire, traffic control, first aid suppliers etc that have lost a huge bulk of their income also due to these events being cancelled, there are companies that base their entire year around events such as Sydney Marathon, Gold Coast Supercars race, Clipsal 500, Melbourne Cup etc and with no participants, crowds etc, they have lost their core business.

Mass participation events are responsible for $70 million of charity funds raised annually in Australia.

The issue is, that if the support industry for these events collapse, when the restrictions ease to a point that events can progress, the ability to host them will be lost, or the financial viability will eliminate the reality of holding them due to lack of available industry.

Speaking to a colleague recently, they said with the loss of industry in qld already, it would be near impossible to host a Comm games style event in the next few years due to the supply chain having collapsed already.

What I think should happen is for companies to be means tested for future jobkeeper subsidies. Simply saying ‘Tourism’ gets it is narrow minded, I have started working second and third jobs to keep my family afloat, and one of them is with a tourism company that has never been busier and is achieving record numbers due to local domestic tourism increase. It would be a relatively simple step to prove more than 50% loss of income for the covid period (we are currently at approx 90%).

There are a LOT of industries that have grown or recovered, which makes the total economic picture look better overall, but there are certainly pockets really struggling still.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

the bone wrote: January 30, 2021, 12:46 am J&J announces results from their Phase 3 Vaccine trial
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-ann ... mble-trial

Key points:
> 66% Effective Overall at Preventing Moderate to Severe COVID-19
> 85% Effective Overall in Preventing Severe COVID-19
> Protection was generally consistent across race, age groups (including adults over 60 years of age) and across all variants and regions studied, including in South Africa where nearly all cases of COVID-19 (95%) were due to infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant from the B.1.351 lineage ("the South Africa variant")
> Reminder that this is a single shot vaccine, compatible with standard vaccine distribution channels i.e. it can be stored for 3 months at 2-8°C (standard fridge temperatures)
Thanks for this update 'the bone'. Interesting they will file for Emergency Use Authorisation in February in the USA. Australia has not gone down the 'Emergency Use' path with our vaccine approvals. This is because at this point in time Australian authorities have the virus contained to mainly overseas arrivals with little to no community transmission. Hopefully that continues in Australia. Complacency will hopefully not become a factor here.
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the bone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by the bone »

RedRaider wrote: January 30, 2021, 6:20 am
the bone wrote: January 30, 2021, 12:46 am J&J announces results from their Phase 3 Vaccine trial
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-ann ... mble-trial

Key points:
> 66% Effective Overall at Preventing Moderate to Severe COVID-19
> 85% Effective Overall in Preventing Severe COVID-19
> Protection was generally consistent across race, age groups (including adults over 60 years of age) and across all variants and regions studied, including in South Africa where nearly all cases of COVID-19 (95%) were due to infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant from the B.1.351 lineage ("the South Africa variant")
> Reminder that this is a single shot vaccine, compatible with standard vaccine distribution channels i.e. it can be stored for 3 months at 2-8°C (standard fridge temperatures)
Thanks for this update 'the bone'. Interesting they will file for Emergency Use Authorisation in February in the USA. Australia has not gone down the 'Emergency Use' path with our vaccine approvals. This is because at this point in time Australian authorities have the virus contained to mainly overseas arrivals with little to no community transmission. Hopefully that continues in Australia. Complacency will hopefully not become a factor here.
The other thing to consider is that Australia doesn’t have any vaccinations on hand yet. It’s easy to slow the approval process when there is no vaccine to distribute. I’d expect TGA approvals to get done pretty quickly once the first batches are ready.

Edit: the Pfizer vaccine has already been approved by the TGA, but the first batches won’t arrive until Pfizer are able to ramp up production.
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the bone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by the bone »

The EU are threatening to block exports (excluding to developing countries) of the AstraZeneca vaccine (specifically the vaccines manufactured within their block) until AZ meet their volume commitments to the EU. Thankfully CSL is manufacturing the AZ vaccine in Aus, so the EU disruption shouldn’t effect us.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BJ »

the bone wrote:The EU are threatening to block exports (excluding to developing countries) of the AstraZeneca vaccine (specifically the vaccines manufactured within their block) until AZ meet their volume commitments to the EU. Thankfully CSL is manufacturing the AZ vaccine in Aus, so the EU disruption shouldn’t effect us.
Just when the EU needs the vaccines manufactured in UK and the contractual agreements that were in place before Brexit, the EU suffers a vaccine manufacturing crisis of their own making. Still it may prove to be the only Brexit success Boris Johnson ever sees.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Dr Zaius wrote:
Azza wrote:Yep, and the sniping is now commencing between NSW, QLD and the Federal Government over Pala's demand the Federal Government extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry, ignoring her disproportionately aggressive border policies.
My sister twice booked her family of five for a trip to Cairns last year. Twice she had to cancel because of border restrictions, despite coming from a rural NSW town that had not had a case since March.

In the meantime Anastasia was giving reassurances that Northern Queensland was busy with Queensland tourists, and ignoring Federal Health advice to restrict hotspots only.

And then the election happened and Anastasia is happy to follow the Federal hotspot model, but wants a Federal bailout because the tourism industry has been decimated. The same tourism industry that was apparently going gang busters before the election, flooded with Queensland tourists.

It's probably not Gladys' place to comment on this, but she's not wrong.
Don’t forget the sold out Origin III when the borders were still closed!
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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

:cmon Shut the borders!!!!!!!

We don’t want those dirty Canberrans in NSW!
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gergreg »

Coastalraider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 29, 2021, 11:04 pm
Azza wrote:Yep, and the sniping is now commencing between NSW, QLD and the Federal Government over Pala's demand the Federal Government extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry, ignoring her disproportionately aggressive border policies.
My sister twice booked her family of five for a trip to Cairns last year. Twice she had to cancel because of border restrictions, despite coming from a rural NSW town that had not had a case since March.

In the meantime Anastasia was giving reassurances that Northern Queensland was busy with Queensland tourists, and ignoring Federal Health advice to restrict hotspots only.

And then the election happened and Anastasia is happy to follow the Federal hotspot model, but wants a Federal bailout because the tourism industry has been decimated. The same tourism industry that was apparently going gang busters before the election, flooded with Queensland tourists.

It's probably not Gladys' place to comment on this, but she's not wrong.
Tourism is the flag ship for this extended jobkeeper campaign, but there are other industries hurting and about to collapse due to border/capacity restrictions. I’m in the mass participation sporting event business, and we haven’t been able to raise a worthwhile client invoice since about April last year. 1200 events were cancelled last year nationally due to event capacity restrictions and non covid compliance.

It’s easy for people to say ‘go do something else’ but the industry will begin to collapse at the conclusion of the jobkeeper program, and the knock on effects are wide ranging. Think of the supplier industry’s like marquee hire, traffic control, first aid suppliers etc that have lost a huge bulk of their income also due to these events being cancelled, there are companies that base their entire year around events such as Sydney Marathon, Gold Coast Supercars race, Clipsal 500, Melbourne Cup etc and with no participants, crowds etc, they have lost their core business.

Mass participation events are responsible for $70 million of charity funds raised annually in Australia.

The issue is, that if the support industry for these events collapse, when the restrictions ease to a point that events can progress, the ability to host them will be lost, or the financial viability will eliminate the reality of holding them due to lack of available industry.

Speaking to a colleague recently, they said with the loss of industry in qld already, it would be near impossible to host a Comm games style event in the next few years due to the supply chain having collapsed already.

What I think should happen is for companies to be means tested for future jobkeeper subsidies. Simply saying ‘Tourism’ gets it is narrow minded, I have started working second and third jobs to keep my family afloat, and one of them is with a tourism company that has never been busier and is achieving record numbers due to local domestic tourism increase. It would be a relatively simple step to prove more than 50% loss of income for the covid period (we are currently at approx 90%).

There are a LOT of industries that have grown or recovered, which makes the total economic picture look better overall, but there are certainly pockets really struggling still.
Thanks for the insight and sorry to hear what you're going through.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 29, 2021, 11:04 pm
Azza wrote:Yep, and the sniping is now commencing between NSW, QLD and the Federal Government over Pala's demand the Federal Government extend Jobkeeper for the tourism industry, ignoring her disproportionately aggressive border policies.
My sister twice booked her family of five for a trip to Cairns last year. Twice she had to cancel because of border restrictions, despite coming from a rural NSW town that had not had a case since March.

In the meantime Anastasia was giving reassurances that Northern Queensland was busy with Queensland tourists, and ignoring Federal Health advice to restrict hotspots only.

And then the election happened and Anastasia is happy to follow the Federal hotspot model, but wants a Federal bailout because the tourism industry has been decimated. The same tourism industry that was apparently going gang busters before the election, flooded with Queensland tourists.

It's probably not Gladys' place to comment on this, but she's not wrong.
I live in such a region Doc. We have been without any cases longer than Qld but were refused entry to Qld. I think this is simply a case of profiling. Select a state as WA does and ban everyone regardless. I have not seen the actual health advise to Premiers supporting this type of action but if it is what the health authorities are recommending then so be it. But as health authorities give fact based advice, I find it hard to believe that the medical advice was to ban people coming from geographical areas with long term evidence of zero Covid cases.

I knew Qld tourist industry was in trouble when we received multiple emails at home around September promoting trips to Qld even though the borders were closed. I responded to them that we have had many wonderful holidays in Qld but that the Qld Premier has banned us. I obtained a permit and went on a work trip for one day to Goondiwindi in November. Soon after everyone was banned again. One day someone will make a 'Freedom of Information' request on the actual medical advice provided to the Premiers and how that advice has been interpreted.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

The medical advice could be not to let a single person in. That would reduce risk of transmission from 0.001% to zero percent. The premier is receiving advice on economics, industry, social issues and of course politics. Ultimately it's up to the premier to find a position that balances all advice.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Don’t discount the logistics of doing isolated regions properly. It’s a lot more time and money and liable to abuse and **** ups.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »


gangrenous wrote:Don’t discount the logistics of doing isolated regions properly. It’s a lot more time and money and liable to abuse and **** ups.
No doubt. But it comes down to risk tolerance.

In the entire period that NSW was locked out of Queensland last year, there were 8 covid cases outside of Sydney. Low risk. Of those 8, one of those were acquired outside of Sydney. Low risk. Despite heavy travel between Sydney and Wollongong, Newcastle and Canberra, there were no second generation community transmissions in those cities arising from cases in Sydney. Low risk.

Transmissions occurred from Melbourne to Sydney when Melbourne's numbers were quite high. Risky. The only other time that an interstate transmission has occurred outside of the initial phase of the pandemic was from Sydney to Melbourne in December, and that likely occurred before the first case in Sydney was identified. Dumb luck.

Locking out regions is harder. There will be people that break the rules and get away with it. But so long as numbers aren't Melbourne level, the risk remains low, and hundreds of thousands of people aren't ***ed over.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

I don’t agree with your assessment.

Having achieved elimination, with people doing much more travel and taking fewer precautions, spreading the virus at Christmas was a reasonable probability in my opinion. Shutting the borders stopped further seeding elsewhere. Now we have more contagious strains, increases the risk further.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

gangrenous wrote:I don’t agree with your assessment.

Having achieved elimination, with people doing much more travel and taking fewer precautions, spreading the virus at Christmas was a reasonable probability in my opinion. Shutting the borders stopped further seeding elsewhere. Now we have more contagious strains, increases the risk further.
Certainly the time of year adds to the risk. And yet Queensland locked out regions or hotspots, and it did not spread. Their risk assessment was right, which demonstrates at the right risk level, locking out regions is adequate. What Victoria did was over the top. What WA are doing is ludicrous.

Different strains will change the risk level and therefore appropriately alter the measures required.

I still believe that the NSW experience last year shows that with the garden variety covid, locking out areas of active transmission only (ie hotspots) is an acceptable risk level.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

A case in a quarantine worker in Perth. Rumor has it that he was also driving Uber. Perth going into a 5 day lockdown
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hope every state shuts their borders to them

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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Dr Zaius wrote:A case in a quarantine worker in Perth. Rumor has it that he was also driving Uber. Perth going into a 5 day lockdown
Oh god
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

-TW- wrote: January 31, 2021, 5:09 pm Hope every state shuts their borders to them

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WA is encouraging it: https://au.news.yahoo.com/wa-goes-into- ... 06250.html
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

greeneyed wrote:
-TW- wrote: January 31, 2021, 5:09 pm Hope every state shuts their borders to them

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WA is encouraging it: https://au.news.yahoo.com/wa-goes-into- ... 06250.html
Where?

All I could find was this.
"Mr McGowan announced he had recommended to other state premiers to stop travel into Western Australia “as an extra precautionary measure”."

That's not encouraging border closures.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

More rumours that a contact is positive and sat for hours in an Emergency Department waiting room.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

I don’t wish bad news on anyone.

But I can’t wait to see Jimmy ‘Giggle’ Reeves do his ‘meanwhile in Australia’ skit on this one.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Certainly doesn't seem the "gold standard", Mr McGowan.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

Wait.. what?? Elimination strategy did not work with a highly infectious virus?? Humans are involved so nothing is guaranteed. Suppression strategy, as I understand it, would look to contact trace and isolate areas within Perth. It would not look to shut down the entire City. Remember how NSW did it with the Northern Beaches etc. No kids to begin school this week in Perth. Businesses shut down whether they have any exposure or not. It is a profiling policy. Shut the lot. I hope for their sake there is no covid outbreak and particularly no loss of life from any related cause.
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Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

RedRaider wrote:Wait.. what?? Elimination strategy did not work with a highly infectious virus??
Rolls eyes
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

I have a left field question for you Doctor Z. We hear a lot about the Covid virus mutating into more virulent strains such as the UK strain and the South African strain, is there any evidence anywhere that the Covid virus is mutating into a more benign strain, yet? I don't expect to see such things reported in the media, but perhaps it is coming up in the professional literature. I am a glass half full type and am perhaps going into wishful thinking mode too early. I don't think virus mutation can only be in one (bad) direction.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

I haven't heard anything. But when you think about it, we wouldn't. If less virulent, then it is probably not getting a lot of attention. If less transmissible then probably being over run by the other strains.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

Thanks Doc. I live in hope.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

It's now revealed that the security guard in Perth that became infected was not wearing PPE while servicing floors with known COVID cases. Apparently they are not required to. So much for WA's moral high ground on border security. They've gone the rent-a-cop scenario that got Victoria in trouble combined with substandard biosecurity measures.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

Surprise. Imagine mine.

Once I heard he was a part-time Uber driver I expected this to go a bit pear shaped.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Northern Raider wrote: February 3, 2021, 9:40 am It's now revealed that the security guard in Perth that became infected was not wearing PPE while servicing floors with known COVID cases. Apparently they are not required to. So much for WA's moral high ground on border security. They've gone the rent-a-cop scenario that got Victoria in trouble combined with substandard biosecurity measures.
Yeah McGowan is going to be a lot quieter after all this I bet. And good riddance. What a tosser.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

I'd like to hear GEs rebuke of the WA system, seeing NSWs is so bad

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