Coronavirus

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Northern Raider
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

greeneyed wrote: January 11, 2021, 4:02 pm Understandably, there was strong concern given it was a case that involved the potential spread of the UK strain to 170 odd contacts. The Commonwealth Government made it clear the lock down of Brisbane, and the treatment of Brisbane as a hot spot, was supported federally. Made complete sense. Luckily, we might just get out of this one pretty much unscathed.
If this strain was as contagious as we've been told I would have expected at least one of those 170 odd close contracts to return a positive.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

It depends if the person was infectious at the time of the contacts. If they weren’t it doesn’t matter how contagious it is and that is a meaningless inference to draw.

All you need to do is look at the UK to know that’s a mistake.
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote: January 11, 2021, 5:22 pm It depends if the person was infectious at the time of the contacts. If they weren’t it doesn’t matter how contagious it is and that is a meaningless inference to draw.

All you need to do is look at the UK to know that’s a mistake.
Part of the contact tracing is to identify the close contacts while the person was infectious. I would therefore assume that person was believed to be infectious.

Latest news is the cleaner's husband has tested positive. They've been in isolation since Jan 7th.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mark McGowan urging Gladys to look at what other states are doing to manage Covid. As far as I can see that is osong the border and crapping their pants.

WA haven't had a community transmission for 248 days, when we started winding back restrictions from the original lockdown. It's not really their job to lecture others on how to deal with an outbreak
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: January 11, 2021, 8:17 pm Mark McGowan urging Gladys to look at what other states are doing to manage Covid. As far as I can see that is osong the border and crapping their pants.

WA haven't had a community transmission for 248 days, when we started winding back restrictions from the original lockdown. It's not really their job to lecture others on how to deal with an outbreak
They're working on the theory that the best way to manage an outbreak is to not have one in the first place. :D
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Re: Coronavirus

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Northern Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 11, 2021, 8:17 pm Mark McGowan urging Gladys to look at what other states are doing to manage Covid. As far as I can see that is osong the border and crapping their pants.

WA haven't had a community transmission for 248 days, when we started winding back restrictions from the original lockdown. It's not really their job to lecture others on how to deal with an outbreak
They're working on the theory that the best way to manage an outbreak is to not have one in the first place. :D
If/when they get one, I'm getting the popcorn

What do these people actually want NSW to do? A lockdown would have to go for at least 2 weeks to get to elimination. When you are getting about 3 cases a day, less and less each week, how do you justify locking down the countries biggest city and economy to satisfy people in other states.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 12, 2021, 6:43 am
Northern Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 11, 2021, 8:17 pm Mark McGowan urging Gladys to look at what other states are doing to manage Covid. As far as I can see that is osong the border and crapping their pants.

WA haven't had a community transmission for 248 days, when we started winding back restrictions from the original lockdown. It's not really their job to lecture others on how to deal with an outbreak
They're working on the theory that the best way to manage an outbreak is to not have one in the first place. :D
If/when they get one, I'm getting the popcorn

What do these people actually want NSW to do? A lockdown would have to go for at least 2 weeks to get to elimination. When you are getting about 3 cases a day, less and less each week, how do you justify locking down the countries biggest city and economy to satisfy people in other states.
McGowan is an absolute muppet. End of story.
Last edited by Azza on January 12, 2021, 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus

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NSW keeps throwing shade at the other States in public. They can hardly expect the other States to not react. WA is probably over the top in its border closures. Others have probably closed longer than necessary.

But the idea that border closures and geographic restrictions of various types can simply stop happening - which is simply inconsistent with good international practices to deal with outbreaks and stop the spread of the virus, while there is no vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

We've heard you say this at least 100 times. We heard you. Neither I, nor Dr Zaius, nor anyone else I've seen here is arguing against border closures being valid in some instances, particularly where cases are getting to > 100 per day as a rolling average. But the complete knee jerk reaction of some other states at the slightest sign of problems is completely disproportionate and over the top.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Everyone else is allowed to say what they say say 100 times. ;)

There seems to be an increasingly prevalent view that border closures shouldn't be happening at all. That it is bad for business etc. Which it is... if we didn't have to deal with a once in 100 year pandemic. Some pushing this view seem to be anti vaxers and conspiracy theorists who claim the virus is a hoax.

In my view, once you are close to elimination, or there, the best thing for the economy is to keep things in that state... because that gives people and business the environment in which to operate freely, or close to it. If that means border closures and geographic restrictions popping back up, it is a better than ending up like the UK, USA and Europe.
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'll ask again though. What does McGowan want? Sydney to lockdown? Every restrictions benefits need to be weighed up against its consequences. If people haven't already noticed, public buy in is very important. Keep being heavy handed with restrictions, you will lose public support, and when you do need those restrictions the become less effective.
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Re: Coronavirus

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I doubt the WA Premier would be expressing any view on how NSW should deal with its outbreak, if the NSW Premier wasn't firing off barbs at other States for closing their borders. They're all politicians pushing their own barrows.

Clearly, the way in which borders were shut this time had undesirable features. Some might have been tighter than necessary. But I'm certainly glad the ACT Government has border restrictions designed to stop the spread of the virus from Sydney to Canberra.

It's up to NSW to decide how to deal with the outbreak in greater Sydney, and it looks like they've done enough to contain the recent multiple clusters. But that doesn't mean other jurisdictions should not be putting in border restrictions at the same time... as NSW's outbreaks did, very quickly, spread to other States. I would have thought NSW would have been happy that those outbreaks were no longer spreading across the country.
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Re: Coronavirus

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How’s that big bruise developing in the middle of your forehead coming along, Doc?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Greeneyed, as usual, on the money.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

gangrenous wrote: January 12, 2021, 8:48 am Greeneyed, as usual, on the money.
No, he really isn't, but I don't disagree with every point he makes.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Geographic restriction rather than border closure is the answer for me. The NT have done a great job of restricting people from hotspot areas rather than states. There is zero reason for people from say Broken Hill to be restricted out of other states. Im happier to lock down harder on travel restrictions within regions (even though its very likely to impact me on the central coast) and keep borders open for unafeected areas.

What that needs is a national approach, and that seems to be the sticking point.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

PM doesn't have the guts to stand up to the states either.
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Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

There’s too many problems with that for me:
- the regions you block are retrospective and may not be where the danger is currently due to lag in incubation and testing.
- the response is case dependent depending on strain, geography, contact points to date etc. makes it difficult to have and explain different level geographic responses for similar caseloads.
- people just outside these named regions will tend not to act with the care they should
- it’s much harder to enforce and keep track of (particularly people who visited rather than resided in areas)
- people are idiots and will ignore/work around them more readily
- people are idiots and bitch and moan about the above two points endlessly undermining adherence to them. How it makes no sense they’re locked out while person X across the road in another suburb can. Or how the system is so complex they can’t understand what to do

If you do it then it’s probably got to be at least at city level for the smallest you break it up I’d say
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Re: Coronavirus

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Azza wrote: January 12, 2021, 9:10 am PM doesn't have the guts to stand up to the states either.
PM doesn't have the authority to dictate to these matters to the states. "Standing up" to them would achieve nothing but further destabilisation.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Northern Raider wrote: January 12, 2021, 10:02 am
Azza wrote: January 12, 2021, 9:10 am PM doesn't have the guts to stand up to the states either.
PM doesn't have the authority to dictate to these matters to the states. "Standing up" to them would achieve nothing but further destabilisation.
Thanks, but I understand the constitutional issues. Not having a united approach has its own issues, and it's his responsibility to facilitate that.
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Re: Coronavirus

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You didn't answer the question GE. What should Gladys do?

McGowan has been "firing off barbs" since Day 1 of this outbreak. He does of course have an election to win. Notice how Anastasia has been very quiet this time around.

As for NSW firing barbs, I'm not sure how many press conferencea you have watched, but I've watched quite a few. There is inevitably the question designed to drawn her in and cause division over borders. The message has been pretty consistent though - for NSW keeping borders open is a priority, we have worked with other governments whne they have had outbreaks and would hope that they would do the same rather than making unilateral decisions. Seems fair
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Re: Coronavirus

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NSW seems to be doing all they can to deal with the present outbreaks. However, I have watched a lot of press conferences, and I don't understand why the NSW Premier keeps sending barbs to other States, in public, on the borders. As I said before, NSW has itself closed its border to deal with another State's outbreak. I would have thought NSW should be happy that their outbreaks are not spreading all around the country.

I'm not supporting one Premier or another in this... they all have made their errors, they all continue to be less than perfect, they are all trying to score political points at the expense of other States. The NSW Premier is right in there doing it herself. That said, the States have all done a relatively good job at containing the spread of the virus (perhaps, almost all)... and I suspect much better than if this had been left to the Commonwealth Government.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Azza wrote: January 12, 2021, 10:36 am
Northern Raider wrote: January 12, 2021, 10:02 am
Azza wrote: January 12, 2021, 9:10 am PM doesn't have the guts to stand up to the states either.
PM doesn't have the authority to dictate to these matters to the states. "Standing up" to them would achieve nothing but further destabilisation.
Thanks, but I understand the constitutional issues. Not having a united approach has its own issues, and it's his responsibility to facilitate that.
There was a united approach early on. State governments then started doing their own thing regardless of what the federal authorities said. Each one says they're acting on the advice of their CHO. Get all the respective CHOs to agree and you'll have unity.
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Re: Coronavirus

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greeneyed wrote: January 12, 2021, 12:18 pm NSW seems to be doing all they can to deal with the present outbreaks. However, I have watched a lot of press conferences, and I don't understand why the NSW Premier keeps sending barbs to other States, in public, on the borders. As I said before, NSW has itself closed its border to deal with another State's outbreak. I would have thought NSW should be happy that their outbreaks are not spreading all around the country.

I'm not supporting one Premier or another in this... they all have made their errors, they all continue to be less than perfect, they are all trying to score political points at the expense of other States. The NSW Premier is right in there doing it herself. That said, the States have all done a relatively good job at containing the spread of the virus (perhaps, almost all)... and I suspect much better than if this had been left to the Commonwealth Government.
Politicians are always "sending barbs". It's what they do.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Northern Raider wrote: January 12, 2021, 1:25 pm
greeneyed wrote: January 12, 2021, 12:18 pm NSW seems to be doing all they can to deal with the present outbreaks. However, I have watched a lot of press conferences, and I don't understand why the NSW Premier keeps sending barbs to other States, in public, on the borders. As I said before, NSW has itself closed its border to deal with another State's outbreak. I would have thought NSW should be happy that their outbreaks are not spreading all around the country.

I'm not supporting one Premier or another in this... they all have made their errors, they all continue to be less than perfect, they are all trying to score political points at the expense of other States. The NSW Premier is right in there doing it herself. That said, the States have all done a relatively good job at containing the spread of the virus (perhaps, almost all)... and I suspect much better than if this had been left to the Commonwealth Government.
Politicians are always "sending barbs". It's what they do.
I'm simply pointing out that's what they're doing... what they're all doing. There's not one innocent Premier in all this in my view. Others seem to have a different view.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

McGowan is off with the fairies. He says that all the states bar NSW have an elimination approach. ""The states and territories that want to eliminate the virus I think have the right approach," he said. "The idea you tick along with the virus and somehow that is a better model is wrong."

Andrews this morning ""We are not looking to wipe this thing out, we have to live with it"

Just making stuff up is our good friend from the west...

The NSW premier has acknowledged the aim is 0 community transmission even in her state... but this does not = elimination. Seems the terminology is getting confused nation wide.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

What is 0 community transmission if not elimination?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

gangrenous wrote: January 12, 2021, 3:41 pm What is 0 community transmission if not elimination?
You seem to know more about this than me, maybe you can elucidate?

The best I can guess, NSW (and Vic, from Andrews' comments) accept there is a good possibility of periodic outbreaks, despite striving for zero community transmission.

McGowan is just NFI.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

gangrenous wrote:What is 0 community transmission if not elimination?
Gives room for cases to emerge from overseas out of quarantine.

They've basically conceded short of locking everyone in a dungeon there is a chance of a leak

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gangrenous
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Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

No the definition for elimination is not refusing to accept that quarantine breaches can occur...

From my understanding the difference between suppression and elimination is the aggressiveness with which you tolerate cases. With an elimination strategy you tend to lockdown as hard and fast as you can.

For us as a country now the target is pretty much elimination. You can argue in areas like NSW it’s aggressive suppression. I don’t think it matters a whole lot. I think the distinction is more important if you aren’t likely to get to zero with your suppression approach.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

I don't think that any of the states with the possible exception of WA have the appetite to lock down unless contact tracing capacity is exceeded, assuming that it is not the UK strain.

Victoria didn't this time.

Queensland didn't in August.

SA did, but their premier was clear in saying that was because they felt their capacity was exceeded, based on a lie about the pizza shop. If it wasn't for that, they wouldn't have locked down.

It would be interesting to see an outbreak in WA unfold. There is every chance that McGowan's head would explode as he tries to work out which border to slam shut.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

True, probably more accurate to call what we have an aggressive suppression strategy targeting elimination in a short but not minimal period.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

gangrenous wrote: January 12, 2021, 5:21 pm True, probably more accurate to call what we have an aggressive suppression strategy targeting elimination in a short but not minimal period.
Bit of a mouth full. Better use the acronym -A.S.S.T.E.S.B.N.M.P.
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Re: Coronavirus

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That’s it! All the states will get behind:
ASS BEST

Aggressive Suppression Strategy - But Elimination Short-term Target
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Re: Coronavirus

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#ASSBEST trending on Twitter.
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